Thank you Peter! This democrat from sunny Seattle is fired up! I voted for FDR 4 times just like Ronald Reagan! And if they let me I'm going to vote for Kamala 4 times!!! And God Bless Joe Biden and the fine job he's done as our nations President!!
Thanks for sharing this. Per celebrity support, power - this kind of polling/research is very flawed for many reasons and should be viewed as a data point rather than as determinative.
1) because it ignores the impact of reach (ie., the power of the celeb’s media machine) and also presumes the respondent can logically articulate the emotional impact of a vote (in an interview). This is because the equation for how celebrities changes votes is (media reach) x (likely voter impact) = number of votes swayed. So, you need to have the celebs who reach the most people. Media reach = (number of contact points by celebs, e.g., followers) x [(number of content posts) x (impact of each post). For example, Beyoncé allowing the campaign to use “Freedom” for the rallies and campaigns is hugely impactful. Because that song has been played over and over again by the campaign and so anyone who tunes in and sees the walk up song for Kamala thinks “Beyoncé, Kamala!” and transfers some of their love for Beyoncé to the ticket (especially as they hear the song, over and over again). That reach and repetition really, really matters a lot.
2) Likely voter impact is something that is observed rather than self reported. So really, they way to understand voter impact is to look at how celebrities impact sales of products or other decisions in our life (through correlation and quantitative research). This is because we - as humans - are not good judges in terms of what drives our behavior. Think about you at the grocery store or Starbucks trying to resist buying a brownie (my personal struggle). Do you think your rational brain has control over the part of the brain that wants that Brownie? You can overcome it but you can’t kill that desire for the brownie (as, if you are like me, the attraction of that brownie might dim but almost never goes away entirely :)). Our relationship to celebs is not dissimilar. Someone becomes a Swiftie for emotional, not rational reasons. I for one become a fan not because I thought - boy Taylor Swift is cool and popular, I should join in - but because my lovely wife dragged me to the Eras tour movie and I was gobsmacked by Taylor’s performance and embarrassingly became a fan despite thinking it was an absurd choice for a 60 year old man.
3) Good marketers and campaigners know this and focus what observably moves people rather than what people say moves them. I love the Bulwark and focus group podcast because it is great to hear voters talk. But, never/ever trust voters to give you the reason why they are voting for someone. You can get clues from a focus group based on the choices they offer but you need to supplement with a lot of other data. This is what Simon has been doing with his analysis. Focus groups and polls are a very useful but flawed way to understand voter preference (they are sources of data and not determinative).
Sorry for the weird math, geeky rant but this stuff really bugs me. The political/press commentariat is filled with rank amateurs who confuse correlation with causation and don’t understand how media works. You need to find the right people - like Simon and Rachel Bitcofer - and listen to them and try to understand how to practically move voters. It’s fun but very poorly covered in the media. If you are a baseball fan, it’s equivalent the commentators who talk a lot about desire and hustle and ignore the huge trove of data that explains much of baseball outcomes and the modern day game. Lots of people hate this stuff but it’s worth diving into the data if you want to understand how to move voters, etc. I for one am endlessly fascinated by it all (what drives people to act).
There’s one circulating today of a Biden like hand passing aviation sunglasses off to a Harris hand with the White House reflecting in the lens, it’s pretty sweet too!
That very first phone call from Delaware HQ with Joe on speakerphone for the handover, he said “I’m watching you, kid!” 🙏🏻💖 So much love and pride in his voice.
On Polymarket, the Peter Thiel-owned betting site, Trump has continued to maintain a (slight) lead over Harris, even as every other indicator on the planet suggested a race tilting Harris's way. Well, this morning, Peter Thiel's Polymarket has finally succumbed to the obvious. Harris is now a 52% to 46% favorite there.
Thank you, Simon, for being such an incredible leader and facilitator in this movement. Your smarts are invaluable! And yesterday’s rally in AZ was totally electric! To be among 20,000 of my closest, likeminded friends and to hear from wonderfully good and kind leaders was so very inspirational! I cannot even capture in words how high I feel coming off of yesterday’s rally event!!! We are going to win!!! 💙🇺🇸
Thanks, Tim! Oh, gosh, we needed this! We have something to vote FOR! All that negativity is getting drowned out and dissipating. Feels so good. I will ride this high for as long as I can. My adult kids will have a great future! 💙💕
I thought it was so great that the GOP mayor of Mesa AZ spoke at the rally: “For people like me, who have always voted Republican but don’t recognize today’s GOP- you don’t owe that party anything.”
Simon has talked before about permission structures in voting, and these prominent Republicans coming out and saying they’re voting for Harris because the GOP has betrayed their values is creating that permission structure for other unhappy GOP/Independent voters.
Yeah, it was perfectly stated. I have so much respect for him and what he has done in Mesa all these years. I felt like he was really present during COVID and has been on top of the homeless and high rents situations. Not afraid to find solutions. I cried when I saw the 3 mayors together on the stage. So moving! We have some wonderful leadership.
I only wish the media had covered his speech. If a Democrat was giving a speech at a Trump rally, they would cover it non stop. But wow what momentum! Let's go Harris/Walz!
It's a huge statement!! Seems to me, we (someone with more social media smarts than me), can clip the video of his speech and get it out through our networks... We.Will.Win!!!
Just donated again for the NC project as a proud NCian!!! Thanks to the whole community. We are so close here in NC and with this family behind us we will crush it. LFG!!!
Just donated again to the Nebraska Democratic party to help win that one electoral vote we must get! Also added a monthly donation. I'm in tears with joy!
Feeling joy and optimism is not only good for the soul, but it is a key to combatting autocracy. The literature shows that autocrats want citizens to feel powerless, deflated, confused and cynical. Harris and Walz are providing the path for us to take back our democracy!
This is all exhilarating and infectious! 15K+ people waited in 105-degree AZ heat for the rally last night because humans are so thirsty for a vision of HOPE & POSSIBILITY! Let's send a message to the entire world that the U.S. commitment to democracy and human justice and equality is alive and well!
87 days everyone. Now is the time when we work harder. We make a few more calls, we knock on a few more doors, we register a few more voters. This is when we go to the wall to end his campaign. This is when we work to run up the score. “We can sleep when we are dead!”
Trump is melting down. If he really is off the campaign trail for the next two weeks, it shows just how correct Simon is about their campaign. Keep donating what you can. It all matters. I love being a part of this community and it inspires me ever day!
Who needs coffee, when you have polls!?! (Actually I need my coffee). Ok we’re below 90 days to go, we’ve got momentum, we’ve got the DNC coming up, and like an Olympic runner in a tough race, we’re gonna put our heads down, dig deep, and push forward and dare Mr Trump to try and keep up. LFG!!!!!!!
Hope to see everyone on Thursday night for Hopium's Winning the House Thursday. This week's guest is Will Rollins, running to flip CA-41. Markers For Democracy has hosted him at least twice and I got to meet him in person in June at a friend's home. He is one of my favorite candidates. A reminder that you can order some great "Vote on Day One" postcards on our VistaPrint shop. (We don't make any money from the shop but we love to showcase the postcards created by our members and friends.) https://markersfordemocracy.org/postcarding/mfd-postcard-shop
Just signed up to do west coast calling this morning. It wasn't in my plan for the day but the new poll numbers made me switch my plans. We need a blowout election to wipe Trump off the face of America (and to let his trials proceed)!
In addition to the great postcarding event on Hopium on Thursday evenings, Activate America also has postcarding campaigns for Will Rollins, George Whitesides and Rudy Salas, all Hopium Winning the House candidates.
I chose NOT TO IGNORE your very wise and relevant words! Thank you Russell
Brilliant idea!
Thank you Peter! This democrat from sunny Seattle is fired up! I voted for FDR 4 times just like Ronald Reagan! And if they let me I'm going to vote for Kamala 4 times!!! And God Bless Joe Biden and the fine job he's done as our nations President!!
Thanks for sharing this. Per celebrity support, power - this kind of polling/research is very flawed for many reasons and should be viewed as a data point rather than as determinative.
1) because it ignores the impact of reach (ie., the power of the celeb’s media machine) and also presumes the respondent can logically articulate the emotional impact of a vote (in an interview). This is because the equation for how celebrities changes votes is (media reach) x (likely voter impact) = number of votes swayed. So, you need to have the celebs who reach the most people. Media reach = (number of contact points by celebs, e.g., followers) x [(number of content posts) x (impact of each post). For example, Beyoncé allowing the campaign to use “Freedom” for the rallies and campaigns is hugely impactful. Because that song has been played over and over again by the campaign and so anyone who tunes in and sees the walk up song for Kamala thinks “Beyoncé, Kamala!” and transfers some of their love for Beyoncé to the ticket (especially as they hear the song, over and over again). That reach and repetition really, really matters a lot.
2) Likely voter impact is something that is observed rather than self reported. So really, they way to understand voter impact is to look at how celebrities impact sales of products or other decisions in our life (through correlation and quantitative research). This is because we - as humans - are not good judges in terms of what drives our behavior. Think about you at the grocery store or Starbucks trying to resist buying a brownie (my personal struggle). Do you think your rational brain has control over the part of the brain that wants that Brownie? You can overcome it but you can’t kill that desire for the brownie (as, if you are like me, the attraction of that brownie might dim but almost never goes away entirely :)). Our relationship to celebs is not dissimilar. Someone becomes a Swiftie for emotional, not rational reasons. I for one become a fan not because I thought - boy Taylor Swift is cool and popular, I should join in - but because my lovely wife dragged me to the Eras tour movie and I was gobsmacked by Taylor’s performance and embarrassingly became a fan despite thinking it was an absurd choice for a 60 year old man.
3) Good marketers and campaigners know this and focus what observably moves people rather than what people say moves them. I love the Bulwark and focus group podcast because it is great to hear voters talk. But, never/ever trust voters to give you the reason why they are voting for someone. You can get clues from a focus group based on the choices they offer but you need to supplement with a lot of other data. This is what Simon has been doing with his analysis. Focus groups and polls are a very useful but flawed way to understand voter preference (they are sources of data and not determinative).
Sorry for the weird math, geeky rant but this stuff really bugs me. The political/press commentariat is filled with rank amateurs who confuse correlation with causation and don’t understand how media works. You need to find the right people - like Simon and Rachel Bitcofer - and listen to them and try to understand how to practically move voters. It’s fun but very poorly covered in the media. If you are a baseball fan, it’s equivalent the commentators who talk a lot about desire and hustle and ignore the huge trove of data that explains much of baseball outcomes and the modern day game. Lots of people hate this stuff but it’s worth diving into the data if you want to understand how to move voters, etc. I for one am endlessly fascinated by it all (what drives people to act).
That pic of the little girl in the Kamala crown -- LOVE!! She shows what all of us are feeling now.
I loved her handmade crown!
It was perfect, wasn't it?
Yes it was! I had a big grin when I saw it!
There’s one circulating today of a Biden like hand passing aviation sunglasses off to a Harris hand with the White House reflecting in the lens, it’s pretty sweet too!
We have Dark Brandon stickers on our Harris sign. Joe is looking over her until it’s time to pass off the sunglasses !🕶️
That very first phone call from Delaware HQ with Joe on speakerphone for the handover, he said “I’m watching you, kid!” 🙏🏻💖 So much love and pride in his voice.
Super important message: we work so the children can live in a just world! The photo of this little one breaks my heart open in hope and love! LFG!!!
On Polymarket, the Peter Thiel-owned betting site, Trump has continued to maintain a (slight) lead over Harris, even as every other indicator on the planet suggested a race tilting Harris's way. Well, this morning, Peter Thiel's Polymarket has finally succumbed to the obvious. Harris is now a 52% to 46% favorite there.
Fantastic to leap ahead here ! The momentum is glorious as the week ends in our hot August summer !
Near as I can see, Peter Thiel is not betting a single dollar of his own money on Trump.
Awesome!!! Lighting in a Bottle!!!!
Thank you, Simon, for being such an incredible leader and facilitator in this movement. Your smarts are invaluable! And yesterday’s rally in AZ was totally electric! To be among 20,000 of my closest, likeminded friends and to hear from wonderfully good and kind leaders was so very inspirational! I cannot even capture in words how high I feel coming off of yesterday’s rally event!!! We are going to win!!! 💙🇺🇸
I was at the rally in WI on Wednesday and I still haven’t come down from the high of being there! Enjoy it and let it inspire you these next 87 days!
Thanks, Tim! Oh, gosh, we needed this! We have something to vote FOR! All that negativity is getting drowned out and dissipating. Feels so good. I will ride this high for as long as I can. My adult kids will have a great future! 💙💕
You nailed it! We have something to vote for! Something to work for!
I was at her rally in Atlanta last week and have been unable to stop grinning since then!
Judy, I listened to that one and was blown away by the cheers! It was through the roof. It got me so jazzed and hopeful!
I thought it was so great that the GOP mayor of Mesa AZ spoke at the rally: “For people like me, who have always voted Republican but don’t recognize today’s GOP- you don’t owe that party anything.”
Simon has talked before about permission structures in voting, and these prominent Republicans coming out and saying they’re voting for Harris because the GOP has betrayed their values is creating that permission structure for other unhappy GOP/Independent voters.
Yeah, it was perfectly stated. I have so much respect for him and what he has done in Mesa all these years. I felt like he was really present during COVID and has been on top of the homeless and high rents situations. Not afraid to find solutions. I cried when I saw the 3 mayors together on the stage. So moving! We have some wonderful leadership.
I only wish the media had covered his speech. If a Democrat was giving a speech at a Trump rally, they would cover it non stop. But wow what momentum! Let's go Harris/Walz!
It's a huge statement!! Seems to me, we (someone with more social media smarts than me), can clip the video of his speech and get it out through our networks... We.Will.Win!!!
Just donated again for the NC project as a proud NCian!!! Thanks to the whole community. We are so close here in NC and with this family behind us we will crush it. LFG!!!
Just donated to NC project from FL. Your DeSantis-on-steroids candidate is going down !!!
💙
Just donated again to the Nebraska Democratic party to help win that one electoral vote we must get! Also added a monthly donation. I'm in tears with joy!
Nebraska, like “The Little Train That Could”!
Lovely…Little train that couldn’t 😉
Feeling joy and optimism is not only good for the soul, but it is a key to combatting autocracy. The literature shows that autocrats want citizens to feel powerless, deflated, confused and cynical. Harris and Walz are providing the path for us to take back our democracy!
This is all exhilarating and infectious! 15K+ people waited in 105-degree AZ heat for the rally last night because humans are so thirsty for a vision of HOPE & POSSIBILITY! Let's send a message to the entire world that the U.S. commitment to democracy and human justice and equality is alive and well!
87 days everyone. Now is the time when we work harder. We make a few more calls, we knock on a few more doors, we register a few more voters. This is when we go to the wall to end his campaign. This is when we work to run up the score. “We can sleep when we are dead!”
Trump is melting down. If he really is off the campaign trail for the next two weeks, it shows just how correct Simon is about their campaign. Keep donating what you can. It all matters. I love being a part of this community and it inspires me ever day!
And I just donated again the NC Democratic Party, so please join me!
Me too!
I Concur!!!!
Who needs coffee, when you have polls!?! (Actually I need my coffee). Ok we’re below 90 days to go, we’ve got momentum, we’ve got the DNC coming up, and like an Olympic runner in a tough race, we’re gonna put our heads down, dig deep, and push forward and dare Mr Trump to try and keep up. LFG!!!!!!!
In facts we’ll “triple dog dare” Trump to keep up. . . (and if you get that reference you are definitely part of my generation 😉😎)
"Who needs Coffee, when you have polls" Ha!! Good one. Cary on my fellow democrat!!!
Hope to see everyone on Thursday night for Hopium's Winning the House Thursday. This week's guest is Will Rollins, running to flip CA-41. Markers For Democracy has hosted him at least twice and I got to meet him in person in June at a friend's home. He is one of my favorite candidates. A reminder that you can order some great "Vote on Day One" postcards on our VistaPrint shop. (We don't make any money from the shop but we love to showcase the postcards created by our members and friends.) https://markersfordemocracy.org/postcarding/mfd-postcard-shop
Just signed up to do west coast calling this morning. It wasn't in my plan for the day but the new poll numbers made me switch my plans. We need a blowout election to wipe Trump off the face of America (and to let his trials proceed)!
Good for you!!!! Did you use Zoom calls for Dems?
In addition to the great postcarding event on Hopium on Thursday evenings, Activate America also has postcarding campaigns for Will Rollins, George Whitesides and Rudy Salas, all Hopium Winning the House candidates.
Love Activate America !!!
Mailed postcards for Gallegos and Mannion and started cards for Tester — am not stopping!!
Have done cards for Gallego, Tester and Brown.
We have found our joy, our purpose, our mission, our candidates and our goal. Now we execute the plan and win.