Hill Rs Broke With Trump 5 Times Last Week. What's Going To Happen This Week?

Trump's falling apart and so may be his Congressional coalition

Morning all. Given his manic, unhinged behavior in the last few weeks there is reason to believe Trump’s decline is accelerating, as many health professionals warned was likely.

I’ve been arguing that I felt Republicans were starting to spit the bit, and had grown weary of defending the indefensible. Things were beginning to change in Washington. Too much harm had been done to the country; too many elections lost; too many promises broken; too much corruption, toadyism, and desecration; too much crazy, way too much crazy; too much Putin, too many bombs in Ukraine; too much Epstein, disgusting, horrible Epstein; and that in 2026 it was all going to somehow get worse as for Trump as state and local Republicans, returning this month to legislate and govern against the harms the DC MAGAs had done, would struggle, creating even deeper and broader dissatisfaction throughout the party in their failed, addled, and sundowning leader.

In November the US Senate voted 51-47 to roll back his terrible tariffs, and a near unimous Congress delivered one of the greatest rebukes an American leader has ever received, voting to end his rancid Epstein cover up. MTG spectacularly broke ranks, becoming a leader of the opposition, publicly, daily, attacking Trump and Mike Johnson. In December the House voted 231-195 to overturn one of his worker’s comp executive order, and the Supreme Court ordered the National Guard out of America’s cities. Last week, as we discussed on Friday, Trump saw significant defections on five votes in both chambers on one day, an extraordinary act of defiance coming during his Venezuelan victory lap. His grip on the Capital has loosened, dangerously so for him.

What happens this week on the Hill? Just in the last few manic days Trump has launched a full out assault on the Fed (see Chairman Powell’s historic video, below). He is threatening to invade Greenland, bomb Iran, struck targets in Syria this weekend, and last night declared himself “Acting President of Venezuela.” He is now fighting with the oil companies over their reluctance to become part of his Venezuelan oil fantasy; threatened the credit card companies with a law that only exists in his mind; sanctioned the killing of Americans by his paramilitaries for dissent; threatened to veto the resumption of the ACA subsidies if passed by the Senate; and with another anemic jobs report on Friday received further confirmation of the failure of his tariffs to deliver for the country, or Republican candidates facing extinction over affordability. The lunatic HHS Secretary is returning America to a pre-modern health era, threatening the lives and health of tens of millions of Americans. Millions of people took to the streets this weekend, many in terrible weather. We are now more than a quarter of the way into the new federal fiscal year without a budget, and the government may run out of money again in 18 days.

Things are getting worse, not better, for Republicans and the country. Trump is threatening the fundamental security alliance that has kept us safe and free for 80 years. He is threatening the integrity of our financial system which has made us the wealthiest nation in history. He has walked away from the UN Charter which has created the basic governing rules for nations for 81 years. He snatched a foreign leader from his palace in the middle of the night, without Congressional approval. In the last few days he openly threatened both the oil companies, and the big banks, two powerful Republican-aligned industries who will be loudly complaining to Thune and Johnson today. Last night he declared himself the “Acting President of Venezuela.” He is encouraging his goons to kill Americans on the streets. His public performances and social media posts suggest he has completely lost his shit and it is time now for the keys to be taken away.

It’s my guess that part of the manic, desperate behavior we are seeing from Trump in the past few days is due to their tracking polls which show his already terrible poll numbers taking a hit from last week’s ugliness and failure. We are likely to see a lot of independent media polls this week but there have now been three polls released with interviews taken since the killing of Nicole Good and his invasion of Venezuela all with bad news for Trump, and all from sources the White House and Republicans pay attention to:

• CBS/YouGov - 41%-59% (-18) - 2 points worse than the current FiftyPlusOne average

• RMG/Napolitan - 47%-51% (-4) - arguably the most pro-Trump pollster found Trump dropping 5 points since their last poll in mid-December.

• TIPP Insights - 40%-51% (-11) - another influential right-wing pollster. 7 point drop since early December, worst showing for Trump in this poll in the past year. Fresh this morning.

And Republicans were already spitting the bit. What happens this week?

How can they defend this?

Or this?

Or this?

Or this? (watch and listen):

Will we see more of this?

We need to be very loud today. Congress needs to hear our roar of disapproval. Those of you with Republican Senators or Reps really need to lean in today. Pick your issue - the Fed, the killing of Americans in their cars, the tariffs, his clear undeniable madness - and just call, email, arrange visits. But we need to be very loud today, and force the GOP to begin to more formally rein in their errant and dangerous leader. Republicans repeatedly broke from Trump last week - on Jan 6th, on the ACA subsidies, on Venezuela and foreign invasions - and we need to keep the momentum going this week. We need to keep making those no longer little cracks bigger, and keep growing that circle of defiance!

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Great 2026 news - Mary Peltola has jumped in the Alaska Senate race. More tomorrow!

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

• Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $65,400 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

• Winning Ohio - $8,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does an overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $65k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversations with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton

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Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $268,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties

This recent post recapped our our very productive year together in 2025. In three new essays (here, here, here) I discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.

The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law, and the US must withdraw from Venezuela and cease other threats to violate the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other nations

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse these cuts to the wealthy and corporations

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the dangerous occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented regime corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress end the rancid cover up of the Epstein crimes.

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor the Stand Up For Science/Rep. Haley Stevens effort to remove Robert Kennedy from HHS.

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - This July 4th America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard everyone, and I remain so incredibly proud to be in this righteous fight with all of you - Simon