Hopium PM - 2 Polls Now With Biden Leading, KY Is Promising, Great Youth Video from VA Today

I'll Be Joining David Pepper Tonight at 8pm/Our Election Recap Wed at 1pm ET

Friends,

I’m at home now watching the returns come in….just a huge thank you to this entire community for your work and passion these last few weeks. Been so inspiring to see. We will be watching Virginia, tonight, of course, but also KY. MS, NJ, NY, OH and more…..We will know more soon, and as I am about to hit send the early returns in Kentucky look really promising - fingers crossed!

You can catch me live tonight talking about the elections around 8pm ET live on David Pepper’s Election Night live stream, and tomorrow at 1pm ET live here on Hopium. A few notes building on my posts (here, here and here) over the past few days:

• Democrats have had a very good 2023 all across the US. Joe Biden is a good President, our country is better off and will have a strong case for re-election. Our party is strong, our grassroots stronger than its ever been, and they have Trump, the worst nominee of an American political party in our history.

• There is now loads and loads of data challenging the NYT’s results from over the weekend. I got into detail here, here and here, but in the last 24 hours we’ve gotten two large sample national polls showing Biden leading Trump:

  Cygnal Biden 47-45 Trump

  Noble Biden 48-44 Trump

  The Cygnal memo reported the following: “Joe Biden’s image noticeably improved since last month – from upside down by 8 to upside down by 3 – likely due to the war in Israel. He was 45% fav / 53% unfav [-8 net fav] and is now 47% fav / 50% unfav [-3 net fav].”

• Of the 16 most recent national polls on 538, Biden leads or is tied in 9, a majority, and the average of them all is a tie race. Of the 7 polls where Trump leads 3 are Republican pollsters. So to be clear about what this all means - there is no conclusive evidence the race has swung against Joe Biden and the Democrats; there is no conclusive evidence the war in Gaza is hurting him; that what we have right now is a close, competitive election with the Democratic coalition wandering a bit a year before the election, as to be expected, giving us a lot of work to do; and finally, their guy, Trump, likely to become further degraded over the next 12 months giving us a chance to not just win in 2024 but win decisively.

I remain steadfast in my belief that as we head into 2024, in every way possible, I would much rather be us than them.

Amazing Video From William and Mary Today - Here is a line, running out the door, of students at William and Mary University in Virginia registering to vote (they have same day registration in VA thanks to Democrats) and then voting! So heartening to see! I worked with many of the national and local youth groups directly in Virginia, and I can tell you they worked really hard these last few weeks. Fingers crossed about Virginia. It is close!

Good luck tonight everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Simon