Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Election Day! New Poll Has Biden Up 48-44 Over Trump, GOP's Ongoing Betrayal
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Election Day! It’s here everyone. Thank you for all your hard work, your generosity - one day left! Make your GOTV calls, text, canvass - whatever you can do to help is close strong. Fingers crossed, been great to be in community with all of you these last few months. If you have time today and are looking for something to do here are ways you can help us turn out the vote in Virginia. Additionally, the Young Democrats of Virginia have a youth text bank at noon ET today for those who’ve asked about texting options.
A reminder - 2023 has been a very good year for Democrats. We’ve been winning elections across the country, outperforming expectations and our 2020 vote, taking away real estate from them even in red areas. Our party is strong, our grassroots the strongest it’s ever been, and as we head into 2024 in every way possible I would much rather be us than them
New Natl Poll Has Biden Up 4, 48-44, More Good News from NYT Poll, Lots of Work Ahead of US - Yesterday, I did a comprehensive look at electoral data that suggests Joe Biden and the Democrats are in far better shape than the NYT polls found this past weekend. Today, of course, we get a large sample national poll (over 2,000 interviews) which finds Biden beating Trump outside of the margin of error, 48-44, 4 points. This morning I went to 538 and found that there were 7 (yes 7!!!!) national polls released just last week showing Biden tied or ahead, not trailing. So let’s declare the freak out over, but acknowledge, together, that we are not where we want to be and have a lot of work ahead of us.
From the Washington Post this morning:
Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the Biden team still has considerable work to do, particularly with younger people and Black and Latino voters. “Once it’s Trump and Biden next year, a big chunk of that will come back. We need all of it to come back,” Rosenberg said. “There’s a distance between Biden and younger voters that we’re going to have to overcome. This is a weakness that we’re going to have to address. I think it is doable.” …….
Rosenberg said the latest round of presidential polls conflicts with the results of special elections around the country this year, where Democrats have had a string of successes. Political advisers to the president noted that a year ago, polls were suggesting a red wave would give Republicans a major victory in the midterm elections. Instead, Democrats performed much better than the polls predicted.
Biden’s political advisers say that is already happening.
“Obviously with young people and with our core communities of color, we know there is a lot of work to be done,” one adviser said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss politically sensitive matters. “We have to be sure we are reaching these voters. … That’s why we started so early.”
On Sunday I joined Symone Sanders on MSNBC and talked about how it is time for Bidenworld to turn the campaign on now, start putting us to work, and taking it more directly to Trump and the Republicans:
Finally, another remarkable nugget from the NYT poll which has not gotten enough attention. The Times asked what would happen to your vote if Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison as the Republican nominee. Here’s the vote shift they found, something that should be terrifying to Republicans, and a reminder given who they are and what they’ve done that we need to have a “Get to 55” mindset in 2024:
AZ - Trump +5 to Biden +5 (10 pt shift)
GA - Trump +6 to Biden +12 (18 pt shift)
MI - Trump +5 to Biden +12 (17 pt shift)
NV - Trump +11 to Biden +12 (23 pt shift)
PA - Trump +4 to Biden +4 (8 pt shift)
WI - Biden +2 to Biden +14 (12 pt shift)
Keep calm everyone, and let’s keep winning elections, together.
The Republican Party’s Ongoing Betrayal of America - Last week the Senate, and Republicans themselves began confronting the intolerable, dangerous and ongoing betrayal of the United States by some of their colleagues. Here’s Senator Dan Sullivan speaking on the Senate floor reminding us that by the end of the year 89% of all general officer positions in the US military will have been effected by Tuberville’s authoritarian blockade:
The rancid Tuberville blockade has to be understood as only one part of what appears to be a coordinated campaign to undermine the United States and our democracy in a time of rising global instability and challenge. Right now Republicans are:
Blocking hundreds of Pentagon appointees, weakening our military and encouraging our adversaries to challenge us across the world./
Blocking over 60 State Department appointments, including 37 Ambassadorships and the Ambassadors to Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. Makes is far harder to achieve diplomatic solutions to our global challenges.
Blocking critical cybersecurity legislation, turn off a DHS program called Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS), and are now working to terminate DHS programs to counter use of drones by terrorists here in the US and the office which works to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction against the American people. What possible justification is for any of this?
Threatening to once again shut down the American government next week
Blocking the appointments of US Attorneys, as a way of weakening the Department of Justice and the rule of law more broadly
Fighting additional aid to Ukraine, once again appeasing Putin and enabling Ukrainian genocide; holding hostage aid to Israel. In recent days Trump has made it clear he intends to withdraw from NATO if he comes to power.
Excusing and covering for Trump’s theft and wanton dissemination of America’s secrets, which is almost certainly the most significant national security breach in US history.
Elevating Insurrectionists including a man who was the one of the primary architects of the Republican Party’s effort to overturn the 2020 Presidential election and end American democracy to the Speaker’s Chair.
Keep working hard all. Big day today - good luck everyone! Simon