If you concluded that Biden was truly behind and looked like he was losing, would you say so?
I can't decide whether you are an analyst or a propagandist! Gus Speth, former dean, Yale School of the Environment; author of America the Possible (Yale Press)
Essentially what I am arguing is that polling isn't precise enough to tell us, given how close it is, who is ahead or behind. It's just close, and we are at the end of the first quarter of a game which largely hasn't been played yet.
Simon, I agree that “Doing something beats doing nothing”, and I think your analysis, commentary and action items are invaluable. My concern is that we not be the place where Biden’s problems go unaddressed. As you know better than most anyone else, political campaigns are insular affairs, and this Biden campaign is an exemplar of that. Among all of us who are not in “the room”, only you can force the door to that room to open. I say that as someone who was with Biden from the first days in 2020 through the bleak early primaries in that campaign to now— financially almost every month (through a bundler). And I know - I can feel it in my bones that the campaign is off track, because they are not facing up to their real problems. There is no way that a president who has accomplished so much should have so totally lost public support. This morning’s Cook Report polling was shocking… and I’m not easily shocked. We should not be dissuaded — here, of all places — from having that discussion and, yes, debate. Hopium - yes! — Denial - not so much. Thanks.
Well, I’m sure not enough, but I’ve contributed thousands of dollars so far, as I did in 2020. I live in Md, where we face the staggering prospect of seeing Ben Carlin’s senate seat go to former Governor Larry Hogan, as the Democrats try to convince the large Jewish community to vote for the Democratic candidate who shares nothing of Carlin’s support for Israel, as Hogan has historically shared. My wife and I voted for Hogan twice — as did tons of Democrats — but there was no way we were going to vote for him for the Senate. But really now, I’ve got to convince others now, let alone myself, on what to do?
If Hogan is in the Senate and the Rs have control, his votes on abortion won't matter because there will never be a bill for him to even vote on. In fact very little of our agenda will be even looked at. Probably none at all.
Craig, to Simon’s point, you can’t let a single poll or report knock you off. Your comments sound anxiety ridden. Are you new to HC? Have you watched ‘With Dems things are better’ presentation? Please absorb plenty of material here thoroughly. We are ALL anxious but NOT in denial. There are plenty of other forums you can anxiety dump. We prefer you do that elsewhere.
If you are concerned about Alsobrooks stance on Israel and this would be a persuasive issue for you to understand her perspective so you can influence those in your circles.....have you reached out to her campaign? Have you attended her events and attempted to speak directly? Email? Are you involved with your county Dem Party? There are people there who want to help you turn your anxiety into action.
I speak from experience. My anxiety over Roe brought me here over a year ago. Now my husband and I are organising our R leaning district for our county DP and I met Anderson Clayton our NCDP Chair last Saturday. She would have listened to me give share a concern like yours if I had one.
You are not alone in your views, I am sure. But please get INVOLVED LOCALLY and find the local DP ‘Simon-type’ motivators that can show you how to use your influence for making Dem votes for Biden & Alsobrooks while explaining how you can be at ease while doing so.
This link is an article I found and her moderate comments are there.
I and anyone here can assure you, that any R advancement in any branch come Nov will play bad for NATO, every ally, and world democracy in the years to come. So imo get stuck in deeper. From a fellow stuck in NC
The Cook data isn't shocking. We are within margin of error in the raw vote, and like the 6 other battleground state polls I write about today MI, PA, WI are within margin of error, thus Trump isn't winning or leading. The only two states Trump leads outside margin of error in Cook are NV and NC, and there have been 4 polls in the last few weeks showing NC within MofE incl 2 this week, and I spoke to the guy who ran Cortez Masto's race in 2022 who says all of our internal polling is fine in NV and it will be close but we should win. I appreciate you being shocked by this single set of polls and not encouraged by all the other polling I've shown this week and discuss in the presentation.
Simon, I chuckled at your reference to Rick’s cafe in Casablanca. Thanks for it!
In fact, It jogged my memory of other perhaps useful, non-sarcastic, memories. Perhaps a little more “Bogey and Bacall” in “JoeB and Jill” would help. A little more “Jack Kennedy to the Houston ministers” would also be useful when Joe gets heckled by the pro-Hamas crowd; instead of apologizing to them, educating them on how the Palestinians have rejected every two state solution. Maybe a Bill Clinton “Sista Soulja moment” when people who Biden has dedicated his presidency to - and has delivered so much for them - bitch and moan about not getting more. For starters. 😊.
I agree and it would be nice if more people understood the ANALYST in you—-understanding how integral a part you have played in getting the Dems to not just win every election since 2022 in particular through now…but to over perform in the actual voter exit polls as well. Like you say…do more, worry less as patterns beget results, which begets substantive foreshadowing long as everyone remains vigilant with their eye on the prize. Thanks for all you do Simon and let’s keep up the good fight!
Have you looked at recent ABC or CBS or Bloomberg battleground or ipsos or any number of other polls showing Biden ahead or tied? Have you looked at any primary results not polling especially in Pennsylvania? FOX news shows Biden going from behind 50-45 to behind 49-48 now looks like Biden is on a row. I could go on but would it matter to you?
Also go over to daily kos and look up the diary " a tale of 3 cities and the NYT poll" .
The CBS n ABC polls were good for Biden. The Fox poll showed Biden gained 4 points in a month. The Bloomberg battlefield poll showed immense Biden momentum. Even recent NYT poll showed Biden ahead nationally in likely voter mode. That poll also showed that 74% of respondents were content with their lives content people don't vote for change
Apropos of the big media, Nicole Wallace had a guest commentator on Tuesday's MSNBC show who actually referred to Donald Trump as the most powerful man in the world. He's a frequent guest and he knows better. (It might have been Tim Heaphy, but I'm not certain.) I was in disbelief, angry and also very sad. And I can't find a way to get in touch with the show except through X and other social media that I don't use.
If 'power' can in any way be measured by media coverage, he is the most powerful man in the world, sadly. Does any minute of the day go by without some headline, somewhere, many-wheres, screaming his name? He hints he might seek a third term once he's won his second (which of course he will do because polls). All media runs with it. People talk about it. Hannibal Lecter - another day or 2 of T talk. What will he say next outside the Manhattan courtroom - media eagerly awaits. Who's the latest R to bend the knee for T? Let's talk about it. With his dark cunning he knows exactly how to become the center of the universe and, after all, if you're T there's no such thing as bad publicity. Flood the zone, baby.
Interesting piece by Bill McKibben this morning arguing that, with summer’s near arrival, climate should be the third leg on the campaign messaging stool, in addition to abortion rights and democracy. It’s another place where we can draw a very strong contrast:
Thanks for the link,Sean.Our climate-denying,"political savant" governor also banned any heat protections for workers.My Fl MAGA legislators fell in step so I'll be shouting it out as the temps(and property insurance rates) continue to soar.
Sen Rick Scott ( worst gov for Fl environment ever!) just announced he's going for Mitch McTurtle's job.
Much work to do over the summer and beyond...but the Raging Dumpster 🔥 Fire makes it easier !
Kathy - you'll hit a bigger audience knocking your Governor and legislator for the callousness to workers and not caring about "the little people" angle than the climate denial angle. The latter mostly preaches to the converted, or reenergizes them. The other sells better downscale and minorities wise, I'd bet.
I don't quite agree, or if you do it, microtarget it, rather than broadcast it via paid generic media. And know that climate focused campaign material will be deliberately grabbed by the GOP side and used with Climate soft and Climate skeptical, gas price sensitive low-information or persuadable voters.
It may be worth your while to take a look at Matthew Yglesias' Slow Boring substack for some of his analyses and takes on this, and poling data from Blue Print USA.
Their argument is that Biden and the Democrats are already doing more for climate and environment and highlighting it more, than is actually popular, at least with any new voters who are not already in the tank for them. Passionate climate voters are going to vote for him anyway. Nobody who might vote for Trump today, will vote for Biden later, if they hear more about his actions against climate change. Nobody on the couch now, will get off of it and vote, because they hear about climate change. Generally white, college educated people will rate the environment and climate highly, non-college educated, lower income, and minority people will rank it somewhat less, and have more worries about what climate amelioration measures may cost. Don't be in a hyper-educated bubble.
If they care and are willing to have society *pay for climate change solutions* - the hard part, they know Trump and the GOP is their enemy. For gatherings and groupings and listserves of those folks I guess remind them, and remind them that this is good as it gets. And also that it is on the climate preservation and environmental protection movement to show*it* can deliver votes. If anybody abstains from voting or goes third party because they are not doing enough, they wouldn't "train" our politicians to do more for the environment to win. Nope, quite the opposite, they would "train" politicians that the movement is fickle, farting around, non-strategic, punish their friends, and the polluting companies are more reliable allies.
It is the people's duty to train our politicians by weeding out the worst, slice by slice. We've failed to do that as a nation. The worst get almost as many votes as the best, therefore the numbers of the worst draw even with or exceed the numbers of the best. It is a feedback system, and we all have a part in it.
Hi Rob - I'm familiar with Yglesias and know that he has long been a skeptic on the idea that climate action is good politics. I don't agree with his take. To each their own.
There is polling indicating that many voters are unaware of the administration's climate record, which is one of top 3-4 areas of policy achievement. It's not the sole job of the climate movement to close that gap in public understanding, and frankly the climate movement doesn't even have that kind of public reach. The campaign needs to play a role in identifying voters who care and getting its message to them.
Context matters, and we're about to enter another long, very hot summer. There are record predictions for Atlantic hurricane activity. The Canadian boreal fires, many of which were never extinguished, are back. Miami, in May, is already experience record high summer temperatures. This will be a topical issue from now until Election Day.
The premise that this is only of concern to a "hyper educated bubble" is dated. Many people intuitively grasp the connection between these extreme events and climate change. Casual voters who care about these issues but who have never heard of the Inflation Reduction Act need to understand that their 2020 votes have had a positive impact, and progress will absolutely be gutted under a Trump administration.
I thought Simon got this right yesterday: climate change and democracy preservation are existential (my word, not his). If other issues are easier, less risky, or more central to DP identity, as several comments here suggest, we still need to hammer climate change so we can claim a mandate to do something about it.
Just listened to an interesting Big Tent USA podcast with Sarah Longwell and Judi Woodruff. Sarah who has been doing focus groups all across the US said that the biggest voting constituency is people who HATE Trump. Many she interviews (and she does groups with many GOP and Independents) do not like Biden or grouse about Biden but they do not hate him. She talked about how she views many voters as being in the Depression stage of grief around the election and that when they reach acceptance, that more unhappy voters may vote for Biden. She also suggested that people who hate Trump but are saying that they can't imagine voting for Biden - can leave the Presidential category on the ballot blank. I thought it was an interesting strategy that might make some people who feel dug in about not voting for Biden - freer to consider voting for him because they have the choice of leaving it blank or voting for Biden - given the they are not voting 4 Trump. It might be something to keep in mind when phone banking with folks where we can roll with their resistance but stay connected as they figure things out.
Thanks, Simon. I found myself echoing some of the points you make as I responded to posts in other forms from people just starting to check in, often overwhelmed and uncertain. Your calm reliance on the truth of where we are helped me shape comments that I hope redirected a kind of panic into simple actions that can reassure people that we are indeed in a better place than the hand-wringers would have us believe. Breathing easier today.
Really simple things, besides the data avalanche in our favor, to use in personal connected conversations that people you encounter who are uncommitted or Trumpy or "just can't get into Biden" to say that are very basic, simple, and personal:
Who would *you* rather have as your boss, if you had to pick between Trump or Biden?
[follow-up question/statement - Trump's had more retention problems than Biden, you can compare, you know.]
Who would you rather have as your daughter's (or son's) boss, if you had to pick between Trump or Biden?
If you had to hire somebody for your work team or project, who do you think would be more of a team player, work harder, not make up accomplishments, and put the team and company ahead of himself, Trump or Biden?
[Follow-up statement/question: Believe it or not: An election isn't just a consumer choice style preference statement, it's a *freaking* hiring decision. At least if you're grown up. If you won't treat that way, maybe don't bother to participate [sometimes honesty and love are tough]]
I here you don't think the economy is great, how are *you* doing [or your firm, community, state]?
[ask that to people who are doing well]
......Then when they say .......somewhere, the border, Chicago, the cities, it sucks and its chaos, say "Maybe it's simpler than that, you should trust what you see firsthand and know firsthand, not stuff you see on TV and social media, which is designed to keep all of us hooked...it reels me in too man! I don't know if I'd want to change horses with a good thing going....." [that way you don't sound superior].
I would pose this question (or a shorter variation) to people unenthused about Biden: "Given that Trump is an adjudicated rapist, cheated on ALL his wives, openly bragged about sexually assaulting women, AND publicly lusted after his own daughter, would you trust this man to protect women or to protect America? I sure as hell wouldn't."
It's Simon's world....and we're all just livin' in it! I walk into my office building this morning, and what should I see on the TV screen? Why, it's Simon Rosenberg's bespectacled face spinning on Nikki Haley's non-endorsement / endorsement / "I'd vote for him" remarks from Nikki Haley. I didn't hear much and was in a hurry, but it was good seeing Simon platformed on CNN (in offices and airports around the country), and I loved what they chose to put on the ticker, under everybody's heads: "Haley says Trump can't count on all my voters going for him." Press on, mister!
Good get together last night folks on zoom! Simon was great as usual. Lots of great questions. Lots of good notes of support and accounts of what people are doing!
Simon's talking truth when he's talking about election outcomes, and how we've been running the table as a Party.
Legislative and parliamentary blocking and tackling when in office is whole separate challenge than winning the election, but even here, Biden Schumer Pelosi matched/exceeded Clinton and Obama's first two years in accomplishment, with less watering down.
Keep the support coming, it's harder to steal a victory that we *close to 55%*. And, the more we get out of a fear zone and expect to win and get seen, by ourselves, and others, as expected to do so, the safer we will be from insurrectionary activities.
....and at next time's gathering, less worry, more action testimonials, more fun, more swagger!
I love to hear what you have to say! I hope everyone in media spreads the word on polling you delineated. It’s much better than the usual “ignore the polls”. Happy you stated that MT is looking good - assume you are referring to Jon Tester’s senate race. We also have Ryan Busse & Raph Graybill running for Gov/Lt Gov to defeat Greg Gianforte (know here as “slammer” for his assault on a Guardian reporter). If you could throw in a word on that race sometime. I expect that MT’s 3 EC votes may not help Biden/Harris but we also want our state back! We used to be purple too b4 2016. Busse campaigns on our need to take our state back!
They have been posting their campaign schedule on Instagram which is not a place I spend time. You might chk that out to see if they will be in your area. They are on the road all week it seems so lots of opportunities to hear them in person. They are both excellent speakers & the energy is amazing!
Interesting diary over on daily Kos about NYT sienna poll about how on their battleground polling showing Biden loosing but democratic Senate candidates doing well. The diarist wonders why they have likely voter model for Senate candidates but not one for president race in the same state.
Simon, Thank you so much for last night's discussion. I greatly appreciated the direct shot of Hopium! Here in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley, we're playing a long game to make the Blue Ridge blue. Our grassroots group is writing postcards for Tim Kaine and Ken Mitchell, a Democrat running to replace "Freedom" Caucus member Ben Cline. We think our efforts will have "reverse coat tails," helping to elect Joe and Kamala, too.
Just watched the recording. (Thank you for always providing it.)
Excellent summary of where we are!
I would like to see the Biden campaign (or us at Hopium) flood the zone with ProDem and anti-maga content on TIK-TOK. IMO we are getting killed there. I'm 75 yo and even I know that tik-tok is hugely important to young voters. Spend less money on TV ads and more on social media?
Too many progressives recede into the darkness and refuse to register their opinions in the public arena. That creates a messaging vacuum which right-wingers gladly fill.
Substack tech: Simon, can you please figure out how to add a play button for today's post? The only play button starts playing back yesterday's recording. Thanks!
Love everything you said except your stance on Palestine. Acknowledging that Israel has been breaking international law with regard to Palestinians for decades in no way exonerates or defends Hamas' terrorist attack. You can love Israel and believe in its right to exist and still criticize it's repressive policy toward Palestinians.
I would much rather talk about beating Trump then fight with my fellow Democrats and center left brethren about who has been right or wrong in the Middle East for the last 60 years. It’s complicated and huge, and I wanted two states solution as well… But for the love of God, Trump would turn the Gaza strip into a fucking parking lot, so could we please keep our eye on the actual prize here so that we have a chance at a good outcome in the Middle East?
If you concluded that Biden was truly behind and looked like he was losing, would you say so?
I can't decide whether you are an analyst or a propagandist! Gus Speth, former dean, Yale School of the Environment; author of America the Possible (Yale Press)
The metrics he uses are transparent.
Gus, thanks for the encouragement!
Why don't you watch the entire video, read the posts and circle back.
Essentially what I am arguing is that polling isn't precise enough to tell us, given how close it is, who is ahead or behind. It's just close, and we are at the end of the first quarter of a game which largely hasn't been played yet.
Simon, I agree that “Doing something beats doing nothing”, and I think your analysis, commentary and action items are invaluable. My concern is that we not be the place where Biden’s problems go unaddressed. As you know better than most anyone else, political campaigns are insular affairs, and this Biden campaign is an exemplar of that. Among all of us who are not in “the room”, only you can force the door to that room to open. I say that as someone who was with Biden from the first days in 2020 through the bleak early primaries in that campaign to now— financially almost every month (through a bundler). And I know - I can feel it in my bones that the campaign is off track, because they are not facing up to their real problems. There is no way that a president who has accomplished so much should have so totally lost public support. This morning’s Cook Report polling was shocking… and I’m not easily shocked. We should not be dissuaded — here, of all places — from having that discussion and, yes, debate. Hopium - yes! — Denial - not so much. Thanks.
Well, I’m sure not enough, but I’ve contributed thousands of dollars so far, as I did in 2020. I live in Md, where we face the staggering prospect of seeing Ben Carlin’s senate seat go to former Governor Larry Hogan, as the Democrats try to convince the large Jewish community to vote for the Democratic candidate who shares nothing of Carlin’s support for Israel, as Hogan has historically shared. My wife and I voted for Hogan twice — as did tons of Democrats — but there was no way we were going to vote for him for the Senate. But really now, I’ve got to convince others now, let alone myself, on what to do?
The simple point to make is any of Hogan's executive skills are not that relevant to the team game that is the Senate. It's a different sport.
If Hogan is in the Senate and the Rs have control, his votes on abortion won't matter because there will never be a bill for him to even vote on. In fact very little of our agenda will be even looked at. Probably none at all.
Craig, to Simon’s point, you can’t let a single poll or report knock you off. Your comments sound anxiety ridden. Are you new to HC? Have you watched ‘With Dems things are better’ presentation? Please absorb plenty of material here thoroughly. We are ALL anxious but NOT in denial. There are plenty of other forums you can anxiety dump. We prefer you do that elsewhere.
If you are concerned about Alsobrooks stance on Israel and this would be a persuasive issue for you to understand her perspective so you can influence those in your circles.....have you reached out to her campaign? Have you attended her events and attempted to speak directly? Email? Are you involved with your county Dem Party? There are people there who want to help you turn your anxiety into action.
I speak from experience. My anxiety over Roe brought me here over a year ago. Now my husband and I are organising our R leaning district for our county DP and I met Anderson Clayton our NCDP Chair last Saturday. She would have listened to me give share a concern like yours if I had one.
You are not alone in your views, I am sure. But please get INVOLVED LOCALLY and find the local DP ‘Simon-type’ motivators that can show you how to use your influence for making Dem votes for Biden & Alsobrooks while explaining how you can be at ease while doing so.
This link is an article I found and her moderate comments are there.
https://jewishinsider.com/2024/04/angela-alsobrooks-david-trone-chris-van-hollen-israel-senate-maryland/
I and anyone here can assure you, that any R advancement in any branch come Nov will play bad for NATO, every ally, and world democracy in the years to come. So imo get stuck in deeper. From a fellow stuck in NC
The Cook data isn't shocking. We are within margin of error in the raw vote, and like the 6 other battleground state polls I write about today MI, PA, WI are within margin of error, thus Trump isn't winning or leading. The only two states Trump leads outside margin of error in Cook are NV and NC, and there have been 4 polls in the last few weeks showing NC within MofE incl 2 this week, and I spoke to the guy who ran Cortez Masto's race in 2022 who says all of our internal polling is fine in NV and it will be close but we should win. I appreciate you being shocked by this single set of polls and not encouraged by all the other polling I've shown this week and discuss in the presentation.
Simon, I chuckled at your reference to Rick’s cafe in Casablanca. Thanks for it!
In fact, It jogged my memory of other perhaps useful, non-sarcastic, memories. Perhaps a little more “Bogey and Bacall” in “JoeB and Jill” would help. A little more “Jack Kennedy to the Houston ministers” would also be useful when Joe gets heckled by the pro-Hamas crowd; instead of apologizing to them, educating them on how the Palestinians have rejected every two state solution. Maybe a Bill Clinton “Sista Soulja moment” when people who Biden has dedicated his presidency to - and has delivered so much for them - bitch and moan about not getting more. For starters. 😊.
I agree and it would be nice if more people understood the ANALYST in you—-understanding how integral a part you have played in getting the Dems to not just win every election since 2022 in particular through now…but to over perform in the actual voter exit polls as well. Like you say…do more, worry less as patterns beget results, which begets substantive foreshadowing long as everyone remains vigilant with their eye on the prize. Thanks for all you do Simon and let’s keep up the good fight!
Have you looked at recent ABC or CBS or Bloomberg battleground or ipsos or any number of other polls showing Biden ahead or tied? Have you looked at any primary results not polling especially in Pennsylvania? FOX news shows Biden going from behind 50-45 to behind 49-48 now looks like Biden is on a row. I could go on but would it matter to you?
Also go over to daily kos and look up the diary " a tale of 3 cities and the NYT poll" .
Those polls are either all Rep and Dems, or lies. .
The CBS n ABC polls were good for Biden. The Fox poll showed Biden gained 4 points in a month. The Bloomberg battlefield poll showed immense Biden momentum. Even recent NYT poll showed Biden ahead nationally in likely voter mode. That poll also showed that 74% of respondents were content with their lives content people don't vote for change
Apropos of the big media, Nicole Wallace had a guest commentator on Tuesday's MSNBC show who actually referred to Donald Trump as the most powerful man in the world. He's a frequent guest and he knows better. (It might have been Tim Heaphy, but I'm not certain.) I was in disbelief, angry and also very sad. And I can't find a way to get in touch with the show except through X and other social media that I don't use.
yes,
Thank you. I must have gotten distracted. As if things aren't already insufferable enough. Sigh.
I saw that, and if memory serves, which it might not, they were talking about when he was president, not now.
irrc it was Robert Costello's phrase when he was trying to get Michael Cohen in line for 'the boss'
so yes, in a galaxy far away when T was president
But not far enough away…
If 'power' can in any way be measured by media coverage, he is the most powerful man in the world, sadly. Does any minute of the day go by without some headline, somewhere, many-wheres, screaming his name? He hints he might seek a third term once he's won his second (which of course he will do because polls). All media runs with it. People talk about it. Hannibal Lecter - another day or 2 of T talk. What will he say next outside the Manhattan courtroom - media eagerly awaits. Who's the latest R to bend the knee for T? Let's talk about it. With his dark cunning he knows exactly how to become the center of the universe and, after all, if you're T there's no such thing as bad publicity. Flood the zone, baby.
Completely agree with you.
Interesting piece by Bill McKibben this morning arguing that, with summer’s near arrival, climate should be the third leg on the campaign messaging stool, in addition to abortion rights and democracy. It’s another place where we can draw a very strong contrast:
https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/memo-to-joe-fight-a-climate-election
Thanks for the link,Sean.Our climate-denying,"political savant" governor also banned any heat protections for workers.My Fl MAGA legislators fell in step so I'll be shouting it out as the temps(and property insurance rates) continue to soar.
Sen Rick Scott ( worst gov for Fl environment ever!) just announced he's going for Mitch McTurtle's job.
Much work to do over the summer and beyond...but the Raging Dumpster 🔥 Fire makes it easier !
Kathy - you'll hit a bigger audience knocking your Governor and legislator for the callousness to workers and not caring about "the little people" angle than the climate denial angle. The latter mostly preaches to the converted, or reenergizes them. The other sells better downscale and minorities wise, I'd bet.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, even Republicans drown when the sea rises.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
BTW our big audience is more interested in reproductive rights.
Sean -
I don't quite agree, or if you do it, microtarget it, rather than broadcast it via paid generic media. And know that climate focused campaign material will be deliberately grabbed by the GOP side and used with Climate soft and Climate skeptical, gas price sensitive low-information or persuadable voters.
It may be worth your while to take a look at Matthew Yglesias' Slow Boring substack for some of his analyses and takes on this, and poling data from Blue Print USA.
Their argument is that Biden and the Democrats are already doing more for climate and environment and highlighting it more, than is actually popular, at least with any new voters who are not already in the tank for them. Passionate climate voters are going to vote for him anyway. Nobody who might vote for Trump today, will vote for Biden later, if they hear more about his actions against climate change. Nobody on the couch now, will get off of it and vote, because they hear about climate change. Generally white, college educated people will rate the environment and climate highly, non-college educated, lower income, and minority people will rank it somewhat less, and have more worries about what climate amelioration measures may cost. Don't be in a hyper-educated bubble.
If they care and are willing to have society *pay for climate change solutions* - the hard part, they know Trump and the GOP is their enemy. For gatherings and groupings and listserves of those folks I guess remind them, and remind them that this is good as it gets. And also that it is on the climate preservation and environmental protection movement to show*it* can deliver votes. If anybody abstains from voting or goes third party because they are not doing enough, they wouldn't "train" our politicians to do more for the environment to win. Nope, quite the opposite, they would "train" politicians that the movement is fickle, farting around, non-strategic, punish their friends, and the polluting companies are more reliable allies.
It is the people's duty to train our politicians by weeding out the worst, slice by slice. We've failed to do that as a nation. The worst get almost as many votes as the best, therefore the numbers of the worst draw even with or exceed the numbers of the best. It is a feedback system, and we all have a part in it.
Hi Rob - I'm familiar with Yglesias and know that he has long been a skeptic on the idea that climate action is good politics. I don't agree with his take. To each their own.
There is polling indicating that many voters are unaware of the administration's climate record, which is one of top 3-4 areas of policy achievement. It's not the sole job of the climate movement to close that gap in public understanding, and frankly the climate movement doesn't even have that kind of public reach. The campaign needs to play a role in identifying voters who care and getting its message to them.
Context matters, and we're about to enter another long, very hot summer. There are record predictions for Atlantic hurricane activity. The Canadian boreal fires, many of which were never extinguished, are back. Miami, in May, is already experience record high summer temperatures. This will be a topical issue from now until Election Day.
The premise that this is only of concern to a "hyper educated bubble" is dated. Many people intuitively grasp the connection between these extreme events and climate change. Casual voters who care about these issues but who have never heard of the Inflation Reduction Act need to understand that their 2020 votes have had a positive impact, and progress will absolutely be gutted under a Trump administration.
https://cires.colorado.edu/news/us-voters-climate-change-opinions-swing-elections
https://coloradosun.com/2024/03/23/climate-change-2024-election-colorado-analysis/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/
I thought Simon got this right yesterday: climate change and democracy preservation are existential (my word, not his). If other issues are easier, less risky, or more central to DP identity, as several comments here suggest, we still need to hammer climate change so we can claim a mandate to do something about it.
Well stated.
Just listened to an interesting Big Tent USA podcast with Sarah Longwell and Judi Woodruff. Sarah who has been doing focus groups all across the US said that the biggest voting constituency is people who HATE Trump. Many she interviews (and she does groups with many GOP and Independents) do not like Biden or grouse about Biden but they do not hate him. She talked about how she views many voters as being in the Depression stage of grief around the election and that when they reach acceptance, that more unhappy voters may vote for Biden. She also suggested that people who hate Trump but are saying that they can't imagine voting for Biden - can leave the Presidential category on the ballot blank. I thought it was an interesting strategy that might make some people who feel dug in about not voting for Biden - freer to consider voting for him because they have the choice of leaving it blank or voting for Biden - given the they are not voting 4 Trump. It might be something to keep in mind when phone banking with folks where we can roll with their resistance but stay connected as they figure things out.
Thanks, Simon. I found myself echoing some of the points you make as I responded to posts in other forms from people just starting to check in, often overwhelmed and uncertain. Your calm reliance on the truth of where we are helped me shape comments that I hope redirected a kind of panic into simple actions that can reassure people that we are indeed in a better place than the hand-wringers would have us believe. Breathing easier today.
Honestly, I am doing what I can for Biden, trying to be effective. And I think he is going to win. But I am doing it because I worry a great deal.
Gus,
Really simple things, besides the data avalanche in our favor, to use in personal connected conversations that people you encounter who are uncommitted or Trumpy or "just can't get into Biden" to say that are very basic, simple, and personal:
Who would *you* rather have as your boss, if you had to pick between Trump or Biden?
[follow-up question/statement - Trump's had more retention problems than Biden, you can compare, you know.]
Who would you rather have as your daughter's (or son's) boss, if you had to pick between Trump or Biden?
If you had to hire somebody for your work team or project, who do you think would be more of a team player, work harder, not make up accomplishments, and put the team and company ahead of himself, Trump or Biden?
[Follow-up statement/question: Believe it or not: An election isn't just a consumer choice style preference statement, it's a *freaking* hiring decision. At least if you're grown up. If you won't treat that way, maybe don't bother to participate [sometimes honesty and love are tough]]
I here you don't think the economy is great, how are *you* doing [or your firm, community, state]?
[ask that to people who are doing well]
......Then when they say .......somewhere, the border, Chicago, the cities, it sucks and its chaos, say "Maybe it's simpler than that, you should trust what you see firsthand and know firsthand, not stuff you see on TV and social media, which is designed to keep all of us hooked...it reels me in too man! I don't know if I'd want to change horses with a good thing going....." [that way you don't sound superior].
I love this..... who would you hire, work for? Reminds me of rvat.org ad. Trump couldn’t get a job in a mall
https://youtu.be/nun2SqovuLc?si=Tb1hIE3Tw4IiM_G0
I would pose this question (or a shorter variation) to people unenthused about Biden: "Given that Trump is an adjudicated rapist, cheated on ALL his wives, openly bragged about sexually assaulting women, AND publicly lusted after his own daughter, would you trust this man to protect women or to protect America? I sure as hell wouldn't."
It's Simon's world....and we're all just livin' in it! I walk into my office building this morning, and what should I see on the TV screen? Why, it's Simon Rosenberg's bespectacled face spinning on Nikki Haley's non-endorsement / endorsement / "I'd vote for him" remarks from Nikki Haley. I didn't hear much and was in a hurry, but it was good seeing Simon platformed on CNN (in offices and airports around the country), and I loved what they chose to put on the ticker, under everybody's heads: "Haley says Trump can't count on all my voters going for him." Press on, mister!
Good get together last night folks on zoom! Simon was great as usual. Lots of great questions. Lots of good notes of support and accounts of what people are doing!
Simon's talking truth when he's talking about election outcomes, and how we've been running the table as a Party.
Legislative and parliamentary blocking and tackling when in office is whole separate challenge than winning the election, but even here, Biden Schumer Pelosi matched/exceeded Clinton and Obama's first two years in accomplishment, with less watering down.
Keep the support coming, it's harder to steal a victory that we *close to 55%*. And, the more we get out of a fear zone and expect to win and get seen, by ourselves, and others, as expected to do so, the safer we will be from insurrectionary activities.
....and at next time's gathering, less worry, more action testimonials, more fun, more swagger!
I love to hear what you have to say! I hope everyone in media spreads the word on polling you delineated. It’s much better than the usual “ignore the polls”. Happy you stated that MT is looking good - assume you are referring to Jon Tester’s senate race. We also have Ryan Busse & Raph Graybill running for Gov/Lt Gov to defeat Greg Gianforte (know here as “slammer” for his assault on a Guardian reporter). If you could throw in a word on that race sometime. I expect that MT’s 3 EC votes may not help Biden/Harris but we also want our state back! We used to be purple too b4 2016. Busse campaigns on our need to take our state back!
Thanks for your hard work!!
Glad to see a fellow Montanan in Hopium. 👋🏻
Just got back from a campaign stop of Ryan Busse & Raph Graybill. Have you met them yet? They are awesome!!
Not yet but I’m very excited about their campaign!
They have been posting their campaign schedule on Instagram which is not a place I spend time. You might chk that out to see if they will be in your area. They are on the road all week it seems so lots of opportunities to hear them in person. They are both excellent speakers & the energy is amazing!
Interesting diary over on daily Kos about NYT sienna poll about how on their battleground polling showing Biden loosing but democratic Senate candidates doing well. The diarist wonders why they have likely voter model for Senate candidates but not one for president race in the same state.
Sorry here's the link
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/23/2242266/-With-Abortion-on-Ballot-Pollsters-Struggle-Producing-No-Presidential-Front-Runner?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web
Simon, Thank you so much for last night's discussion. I greatly appreciated the direct shot of Hopium! Here in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley, we're playing a long game to make the Blue Ridge blue. Our grassroots group is writing postcards for Tim Kaine and Ken Mitchell, a Democrat running to replace "Freedom" Caucus member Ben Cline. We think our efforts will have "reverse coat tails," helping to elect Joe and Kamala, too.
Hah!! yes, or should I say - not yet!!!
sorry, comment misplaced, supposed to reply to Laurie Kolker's "but not far away enough ..."
Simon,
Just watched the recording. (Thank you for always providing it.)
Excellent summary of where we are!
I would like to see the Biden campaign (or us at Hopium) flood the zone with ProDem and anti-maga content on TIK-TOK. IMO we are getting killed there. I'm 75 yo and even I know that tik-tok is hugely important to young voters. Spend less money on TV ads and more on social media?
Maybe our community can help?
Thank you!
DON’T BE AFRAID TO BE LOUD.
Too many progressives recede into the darkness and refuse to register their opinions in the public arena. That creates a messaging vacuum which right-wingers gladly fill.
Be loud. Don’t be afraid
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 1000x yes!
Substack tech: Simon, can you please figure out how to add a play button for today's post? The only play button starts playing back yesterday's recording. Thanks!
Love everything you said except your stance on Palestine. Acknowledging that Israel has been breaking international law with regard to Palestinians for decades in no way exonerates or defends Hamas' terrorist attack. You can love Israel and believe in its right to exist and still criticize it's repressive policy toward Palestinians.
Now might not be the time for that. Israel has a war to win first against terrorist barbarians.
Free Gaza – from Hamas!
Both for the sake of Israel and all Palestinians.
I would much rather talk about beating Trump then fight with my fellow Democrats and center left brethren about who has been right or wrong in the Middle East for the last 60 years. It’s complicated and huge, and I wanted two states solution as well… But for the love of God, Trump would turn the Gaza strip into a fucking parking lot, so could we please keep our eye on the actual prize here so that we have a chance at a good outcome in the Middle East?
💯 This. Thank you.
It’s Hamas that has turned Gaza into a parking lot… or more accurately a heap of smoking rubble.