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118

"I'd Much Rather Be Us Than Them" - My Latest Take On The 2024 Election (Video)

We have a better candidate, better arguments, significant financial and organization advantages and none of our leaders are headed to jail
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Happy Thursday all. Got a few things for you today:

"I’d Rather Be Us Than Them” - My Latest Take On The 2024 Election - Above please find a video recording of my presentation last night to the broad Hopium community. I started off with 25 minutes or so of remarks, and then took questions for another 35 minutes. Watch, listen and learn why I am optimistic about winning this November. Please also consider sharing my talk with others you think would benefit from hearing it.

There were a few things we discussed last night I want to emphasize this morning:

Joe Biden Has Been A Good and Successful President - In the last few weeks we’ve gotten repeated confirmation of the success of the Biden Presidency - inflation is down, food prices are down, crime and murder rates are way down, gas prices are down, the flow to the border is down. We’ve had the strongest economic recovery of any advanced economy in the world, the best job market since the 1960s, the lowest uninsured rate in American history, the deficit is trillions less, the Dow has broken 40,000 and all three indices continue to break records, and domestic oil, gas and renewable production continue to be at all time highs leaving America more energy independent than it has been in decades. The Wall Street Journal called the American economy the “envy of the world,” and the Economist just wrote about the underrepresented start up boom America is experiencing right now. Biden’s big three investment bills have dramatically accelerated the energy transition necessary to combat climate change and will be creating opportunities and jobs for our workers for decades to come.

In recent days we’ve seen the President gives a powerful speech about civil rights at Morehouse College, the US opened a pier in Gaza the US military built to get more aid to those who need, we've seen some encouraging battlefield success in Ukraine from the aid we’ve sent, and Biden is hosting the Kenyan President this week to deepen our ties with Africa.

Summing it all up:

Joe Biden is a good and successful American President. The country is clearly better off. And we have a very strong case for his re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, winning elections across the country, raising tons of money and is in the process of building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever had.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well-oiled machine.

It Is Simply Inaccurate and Wrong To Say “Trump Leads” And Commentators Need To Stop Saying It - Building on my post from yesterday, I want to reiterate that neither candidate is at 270 Electoral College votes right now in current polling, and that he only way a candidate can be “leading” in a Presidential election is if they are ahead outside of margin of error in states getting to 270. For Donald Trump to get to 270 he has to win AZ, GA, NC, NV and at least one of three blue wall states of MI, PA, WI. In the last six battleground state polls - CBS, Emerson, Morning Consult, NYT LV and RV, Prime - Trump only leads outside of margin of error in one of these three states a single time. 17 of the 18 polls have these states within margin of error, tied. And that one was in Michigan in NYT RVs, and we have other polls showing Biden ahead there. So what this tells us that is Trump is not definitively ahead in any of these three blue wall states, and therefore he is not leading in the election. Period. Commentators need to stop saying so, for it is at this point a Republican talking point inconsistent with the data in front of us. It is as I like to say “red wavy.”

While we are not where we want to be right now please recognize that in the last few weeks we’ve seen polls with Biden ahead in AZ, MI, PA, WI, tied in NV and within margin of error in Georgia and North Carolina. This election is close and competitive, Trump does not lead, and for all the reasons I cite in my presentation I think it is far more likely we win this November - if and only if we all put our heads down and do the work.

Other recent posts about the 2024 election - Trump 2024 Is Weak Not Strong, America’s Start Up Boom, Dems Need A Big Reform and Renewal Agenda

Key themes we continue to explore:

Do More, Worry Less - 4 ways to do more, worry less here at Hopium now. I will be building out and expanding this section in the coming weeks:

Thanks to all who’ve given to or volunteered for these critical efforts!

Flows To The Border Way Down in 2024 - From The Economist:

Few statistics regularly released by government agencies set the hearts of America’s political establishment aflutter. Monthly inflation figures are eagerly awaited by Democrats who want to demonstrate that Bidenomics is helping the middle class, and by Republicans howling that it is a failed socialist experiment. Jobs figures have much the same effect. Lately, another measure has joined that list: monthly “encounters” of migrants at America’s southern border.

Figures released on May 15th show that, after a peak in December of 302,000 apprehensions, the most ever, encounters at the border tumbled by 42% to roughly 180,000 and have stayed relatively flat since January. That is still high compared with pre-pandemic figures, but it is a marked improvement, and one that President Joe Biden will be thankful for in an election year.

Kennedy Staffer Quits In Most MAGA Story Ever - From the NYT this morning. The MAGA dumpster fires keeps burning hot and bright:

A key adviser to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is stepping away from his presidential campaign, citing an “increasingly hateful and divisive atmosphere” that “no longer aligns with my values.”

Angela Stanton King, the campaign’s adviser for Black engagement, announced her departure in a statement on social media on Tuesday evening, five months after she was added to the campaign’s payroll. In a text message, Ms. Stanton King said she had “switched to an informal role.” Asked for the reason for the switch, she pointed to her statement on social media.

“After much reflection, I’ve decided to step away from the political theater,” that statement said. “The increasingly hateful and divisive atmosphere no longer aligns with my values.”

The Kennedy campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Ms. Stanton King was a high-profile figure in the Kennedy campaign, appearing with Mr. Kennedy and Nicole Shanahan, his running mate, on the campaign trail and addressing crowds at rallies. In Ms. Shanahan’s debut campaign event in Houston this month, Ms. Stanton King spoke at length and introduced the candidate to the crowd, saying, “I don’t fall in love with a lot of people, but I fell in love with Nicole.”

And then this!!!!!!!

She was one of many advisers, staff members and consultants for Mr. Kennedy who had previous ties with or were supporters of former President Donald J. Trump. Ms. Stanton King was pardoned by Mr. Trump in 2020 after serving six months of home confinement in 2007 for her role in a stolen-vehicle ring, and soon after ran as a Republican for a U.S. House seat in Atlanta.

An avowed adherent of the QAnon conspiracy theory at the time of her House campaign, Ms. Stanton King later supported Mr. Trump’s claims of a rigged election after she lost her race in a landslide, eventually calling for a military coup to oust President Biden in early 2021. (She has since deleted her post calling for a coup.)

Ms. Stanton-King was also heavily involved in Georgia grass-roots Republican events, particularly as they related to Black voter outreach. During Herschel Walker’s unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2022, Ms. Stanton-King stirred some conflict when she participated in a campaign event for Mr. Walker that gave potential voters gasoline vouchers.

The Kennedy team has been waging an internal battle over the campaign’s abortion platform. Mr. Kennedy had previously said that he would not support government restrictions on abortion care, but reversed himself this month after a public pressure campaign from Ms. Shanahan and Ms. Stanton King, who is an anti-abortion activist and advocate for criminal justice reform.

In every way imaginable I would much rather be us than them.

Keep working hard all. Enjoy the video, share it with others. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

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Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast
Expert commentary from a 30 year veteran of US politics. Here we'll be working on strategies to defeat MAGA, tell our story more effectively and ensure freedom and democracy prevail. Expect sharp analysis, live events and all sorts of Hopium!