Morning all. We start today with news that our impulsive, fanatical leader is threatening new tariff escalation:
US President Donald Trump said he would unilaterally set new tariff rates within two weeks, reigniting global trade fears shortly after agreeing a truce with China. Trump’s latest threat, which sent stocks lower, came as the European Union acknowledged negotiations with Washington would likely extend past a July deadline, when a 90-day suspension of Liberation Day duties expires. CNBC also noted that the White House’s framework agreement with Beijing leaves tariffs on goods from China at 55%, too high for many American importers to bear. The latest “slow grind” of US trade pronouncements “may be less turbulent than this past spring’s drama,” a Reuters columnist noted, “but [is] no less worrying for investors.”
Got together with our proud, plucky and patriotic paid subscribers last night. A recording and transcript are above. While we covered a lot of ground in the talk and discussion afterwards, here’s my topline take on where things are today…..
The escalation we are seeing in Los Angeles and across the country is a desperate and failing attempt for Trump to create a new and better narrative for a regime being thwarted on all fronts. His economic plan is failing; the markets and the public have rejected his budget bill, and it is struggling in the Senate; his tariffs have been found to be illegal by two courts, and no one is cutting deals with him or bending the knee; the courts keep ruling against him again and again, and even forced him to bring Abrego Garcia home; DOGE produced far more chaos and lawbreaking than savings; our allies are angry and we are now more alone in the world than we’ve been in generations; he got the middle finger on his land grabs; our crowds this weekend at our No Kings events will be much larger than his at his ridiculous birthday parade; Bibi appears to be defying him; Putin, Ukraine and Europe are defying him; his poll numbers have come way down and late-breaking voters critical to his election win have started wandering from him.
Trump is weak, not strong. He is losing, not winning. He is a big blubbery baby man, anything but a strong man. The circle of defiance continues to grow.
Then a few more things happened. Zelensky struck Russia, humiliating both Putin and Trump. Musk savagely attacked Trump, humiliating him, emasculating him, and in ways that reached through into the MAGA info bubble. And it had become clear that DHS/ICE were simply not trained or capable to execute Stephen Miller’s insane plan to remove 10-15m immigrants - most with jobs, families, kids in school, long-settled - from the country.
So we get 5,000 National Guard and Marines on the streets of Los Angeles, all in response to a protest of like 300 people in a LA suburb.
Trump and Miller needed this dangerous escalation to 1) make them feel strong, not weak, winners, not losers 2) support an ill-equipped and way the fuck over their heads DHS/ICE 3) terrorize immigrants across the country so they would “self-deport.”
And so here we are.
As we discussed last night, we’ve started getting polling conducted after the escalation, and it is, so far, ugly for Trump. Here’s some of what we’ve gotten in the past two days:
Immigration approval
37%-52% (-15) WaPo
43%-54% (-11) Quinnipiac (Q)
Deportations
39%-50% (-11) YouGov
40%-56% (-16) Q
Overall approval
43%-52% (-9) Econ/YouGov
43%-54% (-11) Civiqs
42%-55% (-13) Navigator
40%-53% (-13) YouGov
38%-54% (-16) Q
39%-60% (-21) AP-NORC
Budget Bill
30%-50% (-20) Econ/YouGov (18%-52% with indies!!!!!!)
From Quinnipiac (wow):
The new Washington Post poll also found that only 37% of voters thought the protests in Los Angeles were “mostly violent.” Not what one would think by watching cable news in recent days.
I’ve worked on immigration and border policy and politics for more than 20 years. I’ve studied the polling, and know how our immigration enforcement system works. I’ve fought the Stephen Millers and the restrictionists, and understand what they are doing. And here is where I think we are now….
In 2005 the Republican House passed a bill to forcibly deport 11m undocumented immigrants. It led to mass protests across the country, and opposition to it helped fuel very successful 2006 mid-term elections for us and push the growing Hispanic electorate into the arms of the Democratic Party.
In the coming years immigration restrictionists (extremists) then moved away from mass deportation as a political project and towards “self-deportation” as mass deportation was extraordinarily costly, impractical and politically unpopular. “Self-deportation” requires a regime of terror, so that immigrants are so scared and their lives so disrupted that they choose to leave (or that is the theory). Trump some how wandered back into the mass deportation camp in the past year, perhaps not understanding where the public really was on this stuff (yes, extremists can overreach).
What we seeing now in Los Angeles and across the country is that mass forced removal is indeed impractical and unpopular. So what Trump and Miller are doing is bringing in the military - impulsively, illegally, desperately - to revive the failed mass deportation project and heighten the terror required for their self-deportation fantasies. Based on what we’ve learned through 20 years of polling there is no chance the public would accept this dramatic escalation. While everyone wants border security, voters want humane treatment of those already here. Letting the undocumenteds stay in the country has been polling between 55% and 70% in virtually every poll taken in the last 20 years. Here’s the 2024 Exit Poll:
Look at this data from yesterday’s Economist/YouGov poll (and this with the term “illegal” rather than the more accurate and appropriate term of “undocumented”). Support for removing run of the mill undocumented immigrants is running here the 20s:
This new escalation is also creating a backlash from some of Trump’s most ardent supporters in South Florida:
And now Trump is telling some of his ardent ag and tourist supporters to go suck it.
Some have argued that Trump’s tariff strategy is his Vietnam, and that he is stuck in a battle he cannot win (why this new tariff escalation is politically and economically nuts). It’s also possible that this has become true of their madman immigration escalation this week. While this is a volatile moment, and things could change, today the public is simply not there on this stuff. This need for Trump and Miller to make themselves feel strong and powerful after getting wounded by big, bad Elon is once again reminding us of how weak, pathetic and desperate they really are; and appears to be pushing them further away from an electorate that was already losing faith in them.
Hopium Backs Jon Ossoff For US Senate, Jolly Competitve In New Poll - As Trump escalates this week, so do we and today I am adding Jon Ossoff to our 2025 priority candidate list. Like with newly endorsed Mike Sherrill, our goal is to raise Senator Ossoff $25,000 by June 30th and $200,000 by Labor Day. Simply, this is a race we must win this cycle, Ossoff is a rising star in our family and like these others race, it should be on your short list of places to invest in the coming months.
And remember June 30th is the next big filing deadline so if you can please donate to your candidates of choice this month!
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov - $200,000 goal, $4,500 raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov - $200,000 goal, $128k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview
Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $200,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer
Hopium House 7 - $200,000 goal, $127k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch Our Interviews
We just got the first poll in Florida since David Jolly announced and it finds a competitive race:
36.7% - Byron Donalds (R)
31.4% - David Jolly (D)
31.9% - Undecided
Encouraging stuff, particularly as this is a GOP pollster. Likely GOP nominee Donalds coming in under 40 and only up 5 in Trump’s Florida is a sign that the Rs may be rallying behind a weak and vulnerable candidate.
For more on this race check out the Palm Beach Post’s comprehensive write up of my event with David on Monday night.
More Things To Do - In last Saturday’s post I offered up some initial ideas of what our summer was going to look like. Please check it out if you haven’t gotten to it yet.
Job One for us this summer is fighting Trump’s ruinous economic agenda. We need to keep calling every day and demand our leaders vote down the reconciliation bill and roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs. This is the big, definitional battle of the summer and we need keep working it every day. Those of you in states with Republican Senators have a particularly important role to play.
Here’s a possible script for contacting your offices. Use whatever works for you:
I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.
But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.
Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.
I know many of you are involved in the June 14th No Kings events, town halls, Telsa take downs and all the other in person activities that have taken off of late. Thank you, and good luck this weekend at the No Kings events everyone. Be safe, drape yourself in red, white and blue and have fun! Joy will matter this weekend. It is a powerful, powerful antidote to the darkness they are trying to spread.
To keep our momentum going after this weekend’s No Kings events I encourage to explore ways of Owning The Fourth and make our Independence Day an ugly one for our mad wannabe king. We heard from Hopium community member Deborah Potter last night about her work advancing “resolutions of disapproval” in New Mexico. Will have more on that for you in the coming days.
Two other recommended actions:
Sign on to the critically important Bethesda Declaration and watch my interview with Stand Up For Science’s Executive Director Colette Delawalla
Contact your Rep and Senators to demand they fight Trump’s illegal use of the National Guard and Marines in California. Encourage Democrats at all levels of government to a stand with Governor Newsom and the California - for Trump is not just attacking California, he is attacking the rights and freedoms of all of us.
Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - and a fight it truly is - Simon
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