JCOK, I am removing this post for it appears that you questioning the integrity of my analysis today which I know you are not doing. For in DC the Cook Report is perhaps the most influential election analyst there is and these numbers are going to matter a lot in shaping DC's understanding of where the race is, as did their last set of polls. Feel free to come at this in a more affirmative way in a second post.
Simon, I don’t see the Cook Political Swing State Project poll listed on 538. (Carried out in cooperation with BSG and GS Strategy Group) Is this likely just a delay, or is Cook for some reason "outside" the normal list of pollsters?
I write postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats and Jonathan Nez spoke on one of their Zoom calls - very Impressive leader! I hope he beats the Trumpanzee.
I am so glad Kamala Harris and the Biden Administration is focusing on GREEDFLATION! For the Campaign, it may be advantageous to put this even more forcefully front and center.
Harris and Walz are successfully emphasizing what they have done and will do for America’s working families – which contrasts dramatically with what Trump, squarely on the side of billionaires and big corporations, is proposing in Trump’s Project 2025.
However, several wealthy donors to the Harris Campaign are encouraging her to dump Lina Khan, Chair of the FTC. I believe this would be a severe mistake – and it’s a wish that I sincerely hope Harris never fulfills!
Lina Khan is one of the most effective members of the current administration, she is doing phenomenal work on behalf of American consumers, and – incredibly – she enjoys perhaps the strongest bipartisan support of any Biden-Harris Cabinet Member.
“Food prices are sticky – they either don’t come down, or they’ll come down just a little bit,” said Angela Huffman, president of the consumer advocacy non-profit Farm Action. “Companies are setting a new normal.”
The companies’ net profits are up by a median of 51% since just prior to the pandemic, and in one case as much as 950%.”
In the last two years specifically, since inflation peaked and started slowing, restaurants have generally recorded the highest profit increases among food companies – a median of 72%.”
Sherrod Brown has been running some effective ads on greedflation. Dragging CEO's in front of congress and asking them why they have been ripping people to the tune of record profits turns inflation from a "what can you do?" issue into a class issue.
There’s so few major corporations controlling many industries that they can set prices. Instead of lowering prices or increasing wages or investing in r&d, they’re doing stock buy backs which increase stock prices and therefore their own portfolios and CEO salaries. That’s corporate greed - greedflation.
This news is so good to see today! Every day I see good news, I am more motivated to help. Every day I make calls, I remember that even if I'm not feeling doing the work, its important - there's a limited amount of time to get this done and there's so much outreach to do! Will have reached the 1,000 dial/doorknock threshhold this week for the Democrats - and motivated to do more every day. We can win this, LFG!
Maybe we should look on the bright side - Trump admitted out loud that he might lose! Just like when he made those bizzarre posts about Biden getting back in the race because VP Harris had stolen it from him , he was admitting that Joe Biden was the legit president
Fabulous trend lines in those Cook polls! Got to love that.
The poll of the day for me is from Florida Atlantic University showing Harris down by only 2 (LV) or 3 (RV) points in Florida. That's a highly respected pollster issuing a recent poll with a large sample size. This poll is a 3-point movement to Harris from the last poll taken in early June.
Florida is in play. Both at the POTUS and Senate levels (Scott ahead by only 4 in this poll). And Harris has the resources to compete there. Also worth noting that Biden saw something here - opened at least 11 campaign offices in Florida prior to his departure from the race.
This year, Democrats carried out a simple plan in Florida: to have a candidate in every single legislative race. No Republican should ever be allowed to run unopposed! As a result, I think we’ll see some very nice surprises in Florida on Election Day.
Jess Piper goes into this issue at some length in a former post that's really worth reading. I had no idea Republicans ran unopposed in race after race in Red states! But I'm a neophyte.
I'm in NC. This year we have ~200 state and local races across the state. All but 2 (I think) have Democrats running. That is better than the GOP - they left a bunch (30+) of urban blue seats with no GOP candidates.
A woman in a nearby NC house district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and had no GOP opponent. She is still out there canvassing for the Senate candidate and introducing herself to her new constituents. I rather doubt you would ever see that from a Republican!
Simple is effective. Isn’t this similar to Howard Dean’s great 50-state strategy, that looked to build party infrastructure and candidate recruitment at every level in every state?
Best case, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeats the deplorable Rick Scott, helping Democrats keep the Senate. And Kamala Harris wins in Florida. I think both can actually be achieved!
Even with a close, losing race, Florida Democrats will be in a far stronger place for future elections.
Democrats consistently outperform polling in Nevada, and a Republican pollster had her at +5 there last week. Her Las Vegas rally showed the enthusiasm building there among the base. But looking at the bigger picture, you are seeing the same thing happen everywhere. Taken together, these polls are all telling the same story.
Simon shared a snip to Twitter I loved -- a poll showing Republicans are far more likely to say inflation has affected them "a lot."
I don't want to demean families who ARE struggling, but I've wondered how much of the economy is actually affecting the people who say the economy is affecting them. Kind of reminds me of my Trump friends bragging about the stock market -- even though they didn't own any stocks.
Opinion poling of this kind is a disaster generally. They ask people questions they aren't qualified to answer knowing that getting opinions from unqualified people is easier than getting fleas at the pound. Then they report these opinions as "news." Unless you just got a big raise or just got turned down for a loan, your answer to how the economy is going will be based on what you think you are supposed to say. Most people, when asked, think they're above average in intelligence. That tells you all you need to know.
I've pushed my Republican friends for specifics on how inflation affects them, and it's like "I spend $1000000 on eggs, and $1000000 on toilet paper and now I don't have money to eat." And I'm like for God's sake -- where are you shopping?
Exactly. And remind them we are not powerless against inflation. We can buy cheaper brands, shop at different stores, buy things bulk, buy when things are on sale, do without or cut back on treats, etc.
I find that if I say well you can buy eggs for less at Trader Joe's, they just get defensive and it seems to validate their talking points. I just say, oh really? hmm My eggs cost $3.89, Honestly, mostly, nothing changes their mind so I just move on.
To Trump fans, I would usually add #5 -- Republicans pledged to tackle inflation if they won the House, but they've spent the last two years doing absolutely nothing. The GOP doesn't want to fix a problem they can use against someone else.
SR: I just signed up for your Hopium Chronicles newsletter earlier today.
Please consider devoting some time to shining a spotlight on the importance of the Montana Senate race where Jon Tester is currently trailing. Unless the Dems win in either Montana or Texas, it is unlikely that with the loss of WVA they will be able to retain control of the Senate even if Sherrod Brown retains his seat in OH.
As for the House there seems like there are more Biden Congressional districts for Dems to flip in NY and CA and elsewhere so therefore more options for Dems to take back the House.
My only other comment is that I am a little surprised at the Cook Report outlier polling in Nevada which you shared today. I note the recent endorsement of VP Harris by the culinary workers union and LULAC. My understanding is that Jackie Rosen continues to poll ahead of her Republican challenger in the Nevada Senate race. I have to believe that the abortion rights/Dobbs decision is a major issue in Nevada.
Your thoughts?
Thanks for your leadership and expertise in staying so focused and positive.
First, the polling is not conclusive that Tester is trailing. It is a close race.
Second, we favor open seat and challenger races here, as it's our belief that money and volunteer time goes the furthest in those races. The House races we've endorsed in are the Republican held toss up seats in the House as determined by Cook with the addition of Tony Vargas. Simply if we win these 11 we flip the House. We are a small place and cannot do everything.
Third, as I mentioned there has been other polling in recent weeks showing us ahead in NV. So I am not worried. It's a hard state to poll and all the trends are heading in the right direction.
Also as you are new here take your time and try to learn our ways. Thank you.
I know I am a day late to comment, but I would add that the Cook polling was in the field until Aug 2. That was 12 days ago. A lot has changed in those 12 days. And for the positive.
Cook Political shows shifts between 3% and 10% in every single state polled. That is nothing less than a political earthquake!
Melvin, as for the Senate, don’t forget Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who has a decent chance to unseat Rick Scott of Florida.
One more thing: With regards to politics and Nevada, your best source is probably the Nevada Independent and the articles and Xitter feed of Editor Jon Ralston.
Simon has explained his reasoning behind his picks who we’re supporting here. But I don’t think there’s any reason you can’t also give support to other candidates. I know I’ve made (small) donations to my senator running for re-election in addition to the candidates thru Hopium.
Simon, I so enjoyed your appearance w the Resolute Square crew last evening- one of the best convos on electoral strategy I've heard in a long time! Thanks so much for all you do!
I do really love the Strategy Session broadcasts. It's extra special when Simon is a guest. I feel we get the best of multiple viewpoints with a ton of experience. I'm a paid sub to only a few places, but Resolute Square and Hopium are two of them.
hi everybody, ABOUT VOTE ON DAY ONE. I want to invite you all to join up with Dem Cast. They are creating digital content to share very easily on all the major platforms. They’re using an app called Reach with a huge library of resources. Today they added a short video on #VoteOnDayOne. PleaseCheckItOut.
I’m sharing these links so that you can connect with Dem Cast. The vote on day one video is on the Reach app that Dem Cast uses for their library and for sharing on social media. I could not share it directly So if you’re interested in sharing things like This with your network, connect with the Dem Cast on Substack.
Really grateful to you and the Hopium community. Although I agree that inflation seems to be tamed, I'm not sure we can say we've achieved a soft landing. A soft landing implies that we didn't have a recession. With recent slowing job growth, and potentially slowing GDP, I'm not sure we should declare victory on a soft landing yet. Otherwise, yes, we should absolutely lay out how well the economy has been managed given what we had to deal with. Another poster noted how VP Harris is making the point about corporate greed and price gouging is partly responsible. Love it. I think it's a great message, and she could add to that, "we want to work with corporations to end these practices, Trump wants to reward them for keeping your costs high by giving them tax cuts."
To be very clear a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Last quarter it was a very robust 2.8% and GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed has it 3% this quarter. While job growth has slowed, as intended by our policy, recession is nowhere near on the horizon. We are clearly in a soft landing, and given lags, the Fed should have cut interest rates in July. It was in my view reckless not to do so.
Totally agree with you on the Fed. That's the main reason I'm still not convinced we're going to hit a soft landing, and we are "pre-recessionary" per the Sahm rule (all caveats and exceptions considered). If we don't hit the soft landing as softly as we like, IMO it will indeed be because the Fed waited too long to cut rates.
we are in the soft landing now. It has already happened. It is a significant policy achievement. Whether we stay there we don't know and yes the Fed should have cut rates already. Once again the Fed acted late and slow and perhaps politically in this case.
Just curious how the Fed makes decisions on interest rates. Is it based on majority vote by members of the Federal Reserve Board? Or is it solely Jay Powell's decision, with Board members in a purely advisory role?
Hello TC, I don't think the Fed acted politically. I have not seen anything reliable supporting that view. I think it just acted way over-cautiously. In the Fed's view, which actually seems to be the majority of the public's view also, inflation is far, far worse than recession. They are much more willing to live with a recession (which is easy for them, because they'll still have their jobs during one) than with inflation. There are different economic and political theories on "which you'd rather have", but Powell et al., clearly will take the recession devil over the inflation one.
Of course they could act politically. They understand that giving a big rate cut to a Dem President right before the election in a world that is heavily dominated by Republicans is going to be described as election interference on behalf of the Dem candidate. So it lends to them being more conservative. They should have cut rates in July, and not doing so was a deeply political act.
Not to toot my own horn, but I called this months ago. There are some Trumpers (mostly inveterate anti-Semites) who can perform the mental gymnastics of believing that Trump can do no wrong AND that he is brainwashed by the evil cabal of scientists led by Anthony Fauci (whom he hired) to believe the vaccine is safe, but that doesn't mean he's gullible or stupid, only that Fauci's evil powers are so formidable. But most Fauci-haters can't overlook Trump's connection to the vaccine when RFK is out there providing a real anti-vax alternative. Case in point: Joe Rogan. To them, either Trump is too stupid to understand the vaccine he brags about creating in record time is a vast Satanic conspiracy or he's in on it.
JCOK, I am removing this post for it appears that you questioning the integrity of my analysis today which I know you are not doing. For in DC the Cook Report is perhaps the most influential election analyst there is and these numbers are going to matter a lot in shaping DC's understanding of where the race is, as did their last set of polls. Feel free to come at this in a more affirmative way in a second post.
sure. will do.
Simon, I don’t see the Cook Political Swing State Project poll listed on 538. (Carried out in cooperation with BSG and GS Strategy Group) Is this likely just a delay, or is Cook for some reason "outside" the normal list of pollsters?
Wondering what you think/have seen about the MD Senate race. As a DC resident seeing a lot of Hogan ads where he’s tilting center on tv.
I don't trust Hogan.
AZ 2nd has a trumpanzee vs. a former President of the Diné Nation. I hope the local voters make a sentient choice.
I write postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats and Jonathan Nez spoke on one of their Zoom calls - very Impressive leader! I hope he beats the Trumpanzee.
Thanks for the info -- just looked up Nez's website and will donate
I am so glad Kamala Harris and the Biden Administration is focusing on GREEDFLATION! For the Campaign, it may be advantageous to put this even more forcefully front and center.
Harris and Walz are successfully emphasizing what they have done and will do for America’s working families – which contrasts dramatically with what Trump, squarely on the side of billionaires and big corporations, is proposing in Trump’s Project 2025.
However, several wealthy donors to the Harris Campaign are encouraging her to dump Lina Khan, Chair of the FTC. I believe this would be a severe mistake – and it’s a wish that I sincerely hope Harris never fulfills!
Lina Khan is one of the most effective members of the current administration, she is doing phenomenal work on behalf of American consumers, and – incredibly – she enjoys perhaps the strongest bipartisan support of any Biden-Harris Cabinet Member.
“Food prices are sticky – they either don’t come down, or they’ll come down just a little bit,” said Angela Huffman, president of the consumer advocacy non-profit Farm Action. “Companies are setting a new normal.”
The companies’ net profits are up by a median of 51% since just prior to the pandemic, and in one case as much as 950%.”
In the last two years specifically, since inflation peaked and started slowing, restaurants have generally recorded the highest profit increases among food companies – a median of 72%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/26/food-price-inflation-corporate-profit
Sherrod Brown has been running some effective ads on greedflation. Dragging CEO's in front of congress and asking them why they have been ripping people to the tune of record profits turns inflation from a "what can you do?" issue into a class issue.
There’s so few major corporations controlling many industries that they can set prices. Instead of lowering prices or increasing wages or investing in r&d, they’re doing stock buy backs which increase stock prices and therefore their own portfolios and CEO salaries. That’s corporate greed - greedflation.
Is there a live, updated list of prominent Republicans who have endorsed Kamala Harris?
Updated just today - https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-republicans-endorsing-kamala-harris-kinzinger-grisham-duncan-1939178
Many thanks! I do wish Newsweek would have made an orderly list of the names mentioned in the article itself.
I had expected an actual list but the closest i could find, which you probably did also, is Kinzinger's Aug 4 shout-out
https://x.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1820089071063957752/photo/1
Waiting for Liz Cheney......maybe she'll be a surprise guest speaker at the Dem Convention?? Not likely but...
Yes, I saw that.
This news is so good to see today! Every day I see good news, I am more motivated to help. Every day I make calls, I remember that even if I'm not feeling doing the work, its important - there's a limited amount of time to get this done and there's so much outreach to do! Will have reached the 1,000 dial/doorknock threshhold this week for the Democrats - and motivated to do more every day. We can win this, LFG!
Good for you. Sometimes, it is not easy. Thank you for doing the hard work!
Did Trump tell a reporter he would run to Venezuela if he doesn’t get his way? There ya go, MAGA!
Great American patriot flag molester? He’s going to abandon you. Ever been lied to, used and then dumped? I have.
Better vote for Joy. You are going to need some.
Maybe we should look on the bright side - Trump admitted out loud that he might lose! Just like when he made those bizzarre posts about Biden getting back in the race because VP Harris had stolen it from him , he was admitting that Joe Biden was the legit president
Fabulous trend lines in those Cook polls! Got to love that.
The poll of the day for me is from Florida Atlantic University showing Harris down by only 2 (LV) or 3 (RV) points in Florida. That's a highly respected pollster issuing a recent poll with a large sample size. This poll is a 3-point movement to Harris from the last poll taken in early June.
Florida is in play. Both at the POTUS and Senate levels (Scott ahead by only 4 in this poll). And Harris has the resources to compete there. Also worth noting that Biden saw something here - opened at least 11 campaign offices in Florida prior to his departure from the race.
Let's fight to win in Florida!
At the very least, Florida is a good place to get in his head.
I love your thinking!!!
Are you channeling Rick Wilson of the Lincoln project?
Looks like the republicans will have to pour money into Florida which is a good!
This year, Democrats carried out a simple plan in Florida: to have a candidate in every single legislative race. No Republican should ever be allowed to run unopposed! As a result, I think we’ll see some very nice surprises in Florida on Election Day.
Jess Piper goes into this issue at some length in a former post that's really worth reading. I had no idea Republicans ran unopposed in race after race in Red states! But I'm a neophyte.
I'm in NC. This year we have ~200 state and local races across the state. All but 2 (I think) have Democrats running. That is better than the GOP - they left a bunch (30+) of urban blue seats with no GOP candidates.
A woman in a nearby NC house district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and had no GOP opponent. She is still out there canvassing for the Senate candidate and introducing herself to her new constituents. I rather doubt you would ever see that from a Republican!
Howard Dean was really good at this when he ran the DNC.
To paraphrase Timothy Snyder:
"Never admit defeat in advance."
Simple is effective. Isn’t this similar to Howard Dean’s great 50-state strategy, that looked to build party infrastructure and candidate recruitment at every level in every state?
This is the way.
Best case, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeats the deplorable Rick Scott, helping Democrats keep the Senate. And Kamala Harris wins in Florida. I think both can actually be achieved!
Even with a close, losing race, Florida Democrats will be in a far stronger place for future elections.
Next: Let’s put Ohio in play!
Democrats consistently outperform polling in Nevada, and a Republican pollster had her at +5 there last week. Her Las Vegas rally showed the enthusiasm building there among the base. But looking at the bigger picture, you are seeing the same thing happen everywhere. Taken together, these polls are all telling the same story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-R5-COkPZM&t=46s
🙏🏻
Also, Nevada has an abortion rights referendum on the November ballot!
Now we need to stop all the wars. The Military Industrial Complex will just have to not be making so much money!!!!!
We need that money to provide school kids some food.
Simon shared a snip to Twitter I loved -- a poll showing Republicans are far more likely to say inflation has affected them "a lot."
I don't want to demean families who ARE struggling, but I've wondered how much of the economy is actually affecting the people who say the economy is affecting them. Kind of reminds me of my Trump friends bragging about the stock market -- even though they didn't own any stocks.
Opinion poling of this kind is a disaster generally. They ask people questions they aren't qualified to answer knowing that getting opinions from unqualified people is easier than getting fleas at the pound. Then they report these opinions as "news." Unless you just got a big raise or just got turned down for a loan, your answer to how the economy is going will be based on what you think you are supposed to say. Most people, when asked, think they're above average in intelligence. That tells you all you need to know.
I've pushed my Republican friends for specifics on how inflation affects them, and it's like "I spend $1000000 on eggs, and $1000000 on toilet paper and now I don't have money to eat." And I'm like for God's sake -- where are you shopping?
American stores no longer sell "toilet paper". If you look at the packaging, the closest you’re gonna get is "bathroom tissue". Just saying.
/s
Exactly. And remind them we are not powerless against inflation. We can buy cheaper brands, shop at different stores, buy things bulk, buy when things are on sale, do without or cut back on treats, etc.
Frugality is the new consumer superpower. It seems to be working.
I find that if I say well you can buy eggs for less at Trader Joe's, they just get defensive and it seems to validate their talking points. I just say, oh really? hmm My eggs cost $3.89, Honestly, mostly, nothing changes their mind so I just move on.
The argument re inflation is simple:
1. Inflation after pandemic was global
2. USA had least inflation of industrialized nations. Yay Bidenomics
3. Inflation is now much lower thanks to Bidenomics
That’s all that needs to be said. Simple right?
4. See Jon Stewart’s excellent challenge of Larry summers nonsense… wish everyone would see this.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHUUTpxmzxA
To Trump fans, I would usually add #5 -- Republicans pledged to tackle inflation if they won the House, but they've spent the last two years doing absolutely nothing. The GOP doesn't want to fix a problem they can use against someone else.
SR: I just signed up for your Hopium Chronicles newsletter earlier today.
Please consider devoting some time to shining a spotlight on the importance of the Montana Senate race where Jon Tester is currently trailing. Unless the Dems win in either Montana or Texas, it is unlikely that with the loss of WVA they will be able to retain control of the Senate even if Sherrod Brown retains his seat in OH.
As for the House there seems like there are more Biden Congressional districts for Dems to flip in NY and CA and elsewhere so therefore more options for Dems to take back the House.
My only other comment is that I am a little surprised at the Cook Report outlier polling in Nevada which you shared today. I note the recent endorsement of VP Harris by the culinary workers union and LULAC. My understanding is that Jackie Rosen continues to poll ahead of her Republican challenger in the Nevada Senate race. I have to believe that the abortion rights/Dobbs decision is a major issue in Nevada.
Your thoughts?
Thanks for your leadership and expertise in staying so focused and positive.
The Hopium community is helping out on 11 house races at the moment you should check them out.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winning-the-house-in-2024
Melvin, welcome.
First, the polling is not conclusive that Tester is trailing. It is a close race.
Second, we favor open seat and challenger races here, as it's our belief that money and volunteer time goes the furthest in those races. The House races we've endorsed in are the Republican held toss up seats in the House as determined by Cook with the addition of Tony Vargas. Simply if we win these 11 we flip the House. We are a small place and cannot do everything.
Third, as I mentioned there has been other polling in recent weeks showing us ahead in NV. So I am not worried. It's a hard state to poll and all the trends are heading in the right direction.
Also as you are new here take your time and try to learn our ways. Thank you.
I know I am a day late to comment, but I would add that the Cook polling was in the field until Aug 2. That was 12 days ago. A lot has changed in those 12 days. And for the positive.
Cook Political shows shifts between 3% and 10% in every single state polled. That is nothing less than a political earthquake!
Melvin, as for the Senate, don’t forget Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who has a decent chance to unseat Rick Scott of Florida.
One more thing: With regards to politics and Nevada, your best source is probably the Nevada Independent and the articles and Xitter feed of Editor Jon Ralston.
https://nitter.poast.org/RalstonReports
https://thenevadaindependent.com/
Thank you. I forgot about Jon Ralston. How could I forget him?! Thank you!
Hi Melvin - welcome!
Simon has explained his reasoning behind his picks who we’re supporting here. But I don’t think there’s any reason you can’t also give support to other candidates. I know I’ve made (small) donations to my senator running for re-election in addition to the candidates thru Hopium.
Simon, I so enjoyed your appearance w the Resolute Square crew last evening- one of the best convos on electoral strategy I've heard in a long time! Thanks so much for all you do!
I do really love the Strategy Session broadcasts. It's extra special when Simon is a guest. I feel we get the best of multiple viewpoints with a ton of experience. I'm a paid sub to only a few places, but Resolute Square and Hopium are two of them.
I agree. I have shared the link that someone posted here last night.
hi everybody, ABOUT VOTE ON DAY ONE. I want to invite you all to join up with Dem Cast. They are creating digital content to share very easily on all the major platforms. They’re using an app called Reach with a huge library of resources. Today they added a short video on #VoteOnDayOne. PleaseCheckItOut.
https://open.substack.com/pub/demcastusa?r=58eky&utm_medium=ios
https://open.substack.com/pub/demcastusa/p/epic-ad-uaw-absolutely-destroys-republicans?r=58eky&utm_medium=ios
Hi Mary. I don't see the "Vote on Day One" ad at either of the links you posted. Help!
I’m sharing these links so that you can connect with Dem Cast. The vote on day one video is on the Reach app that Dem Cast uses for their library and for sharing on social media. I could not share it directly So if you’re interested in sharing things like This with your network, connect with the Dem Cast on Substack.
Carolyn, if you wanted to share your phone number, I can refer you directly to Dem Cast. And then they will contact you.
Also, Carolyn, on the digital drum beat email that I forwarded, there’s a link on the top that says subscribe.
Thank you, Mary. I will try subscribing.
here is an easier way to sign up for Dem Cast.
Go to this website, which has Reach sign up, sub stack and toolkits. https://demcast.com/amplify/
https://substack.com/@demcastusa
Hello Simon,
Really grateful to you and the Hopium community. Although I agree that inflation seems to be tamed, I'm not sure we can say we've achieved a soft landing. A soft landing implies that we didn't have a recession. With recent slowing job growth, and potentially slowing GDP, I'm not sure we should declare victory on a soft landing yet. Otherwise, yes, we should absolutely lay out how well the economy has been managed given what we had to deal with. Another poster noted how VP Harris is making the point about corporate greed and price gouging is partly responsible. Love it. I think it's a great message, and she could add to that, "we want to work with corporations to end these practices, Trump wants to reward them for keeping your costs high by giving them tax cuts."
To be very clear a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Last quarter it was a very robust 2.8% and GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed has it 3% this quarter. While job growth has slowed, as intended by our policy, recession is nowhere near on the horizon. We are clearly in a soft landing, and given lags, the Fed should have cut interest rates in July. It was in my view reckless not to do so.
Totally agree with you on the Fed. That's the main reason I'm still not convinced we're going to hit a soft landing, and we are "pre-recessionary" per the Sahm rule (all caveats and exceptions considered). If we don't hit the soft landing as softly as we like, IMO it will indeed be because the Fed waited too long to cut rates.
we are in the soft landing now. It has already happened. It is a significant policy achievement. Whether we stay there we don't know and yes the Fed should have cut rates already. Once again the Fed acted late and slow and perhaps politically in this case.
Just curious how the Fed makes decisions on interest rates. Is it based on majority vote by members of the Federal Reserve Board? Or is it solely Jay Powell's decision, with Board members in a purely advisory role?
Majority consensus, however I believe the chair gets something of an unofficial veto.
Very disturbing that the Fed potentially acted politically. We always have headwinds coming from somewhere.
Hello TC, I don't think the Fed acted politically. I have not seen anything reliable supporting that view. I think it just acted way over-cautiously. In the Fed's view, which actually seems to be the majority of the public's view also, inflation is far, far worse than recession. They are much more willing to live with a recession (which is easy for them, because they'll still have their jobs during one) than with inflation. There are different economic and political theories on "which you'd rather have", but Powell et al., clearly will take the recession devil over the inflation one.
Of course they could act politically. They understand that giving a big rate cut to a Dem President right before the election in a world that is heavily dominated by Republicans is going to be described as election interference on behalf of the Dem candidate. So it lends to them being more conservative. They should have cut rates in July, and not doing so was a deeply political act.
Worse, the Fed’s high rates are actually inflationary! This has been pointed out by Robert Kuttner and other analysts.
Soft landing happened, https://x.com/garyblack00/status/1824065228742820033
Interesting how when rfk is not in the PA poll Trump support goes up by that exact amount. So in this poll, in PA, rfk is 100% pulling from Trump.
Not to toot my own horn, but I called this months ago. There are some Trumpers (mostly inveterate anti-Semites) who can perform the mental gymnastics of believing that Trump can do no wrong AND that he is brainwashed by the evil cabal of scientists led by Anthony Fauci (whom he hired) to believe the vaccine is safe, but that doesn't mean he's gullible or stupid, only that Fauci's evil powers are so formidable. But most Fauci-haters can't overlook Trump's connection to the vaccine when RFK is out there providing a real anti-vax alternative. Case in point: Joe Rogan. To them, either Trump is too stupid to understand the vaccine he brags about creating in record time is a vast Satanic conspiracy or he's in on it.