It's Election Day - Let's Bring It Home, Everyone!!!!!

The people have more power than the people in power

Morning all. Here we are. Thanks to everyone who has donated, written postcards, called, texted, knocked on doors, info warred, marched, rallied, hoped, dreamed, stayed in the fight and fought for a better day for the good people of this great country. Let’s make this our day. Grab a final shift in Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Volunteer in a local race that matters to you. Chip in a few more bucks to one of our great candidates or state parties. And let’s bring it home, together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I want to start today with this slide from a deck I do:

During the Cold War Republicans won more votes in 7 of the 11 Presidential elections, regularly broke 50% of the national vote and won these elections by an average of 5 points. We only topped 50% twice - after Kennedy’s assassination, and Watergate. In the 9 elections since the Cold War ended, Democrats have won more votes in 7 out of 9, breaking 50% three times, and our average margin was +3.2 points better than the Rs. In these 9 elections Republicans only broke 48% twice - in 2004 and 2024, while we did so in 8 of the 9 elections.

All told our national vote performance in Presidential elections in the post-Cold War era has been on average 8 points better than during the Cold War.

After winning one of the closest Presidential elections in history in 2024, 49.8%– 48.3% (1.5 pts), Republicans have historically narrow margins in Congress and in the states:

• Senate 53R - 47D. Dems need to pick 4 seats for a majority

• House 220R - 215D. Dems need to pick up 3 seats for a majority

• Govs 26R - 24D (Assuming Spanberger and Sherrill win). Ds need 2 states for majority of the states)

Using the FiftyPlusOne aggregator Trump has fallen a staggering 27 points in net job approval since he took office:

This decline/collapse has come despite the clear information superiority Republicans have in our daily discourse, and a steady stream of “red wave” polls that feed into the polling averages that have attempted to mask the severity of his extraordinary rejection by the American people. Today Trump is now regularly polling near or even worse than where Biden was last summer when he was considered so unpopular that he left the Presidential race.

The coalition that gave Trump the Presidency last year has unraveled:

Democrats have gained 12 points in party ID since late 2024:

We’ve gained 8 points in the generic ballot, with some recent polls now showing us with much bigger leads (FiftyPlusOne):

In many polls we now lead on the economy again, something that not been regularly true since the George W. Bush’s 2nd term (Gallup)

Our voters are far more motivated to vote right now than theirs:

Underlying all this data is my big takeaway for you today - we were never as weak as commentators have said in the past year, nor they as strong. We were able to beat and outperform MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and into early 2024. We gained a House seat in 2024 and were able to win many down ballot Senate and other state wide elections despite losing the Presidential. Our grassroots has never been more robust, nor have we ever had as much money as we have now in our politics. We’ve been overperforming in elections throughout the country this year, and head into this Election Day in strong positions in the places that matter.

Trump and the Republicans entered 2025 with very narrow majorities and have overplayed a weak hand, acting as if they had the country behind them and large majorities in Congress and across the country. Overestimating their power they’ve gone too far, done too much harm, lined their pockets, and betrayed the country and our democracy. Simply, they have fucked up, badly, and voters are pissed and demanding something better.

This all comes as it has become clear that the powers of the oldest man to ever be elected to the Presidency are ebbing, and that he is now in significant political, physical, and cognitive decline. That they have kept him off the trail these past few weeks was an admission of this weakness, of his struggles, his escalating madness, of his decline and greater distance from all of us.

So what this means is that our road back was never as long and hard as it felt or some have argued. Yes, we have a lot of work ahead of us. No doubt. But for us to keep winning we must learn how to own our own power, to operate from strength and conviction, patriotism and love of country, to be strong and righteous, to run into battle not away from it, and never not for one minute see ourselves as “the underdog.” For remember folks, as we say here……

Trump is weak, not strong. Losing, not winning. A failure, not a success. A villain, not a hero. A big blubbery baby man, anything, anything but a strong man.

Now, together, let’s go make it so.

Upcoming Post-Election Events - My plan tonight is to send written updates but am unlikely to do any live video commentary. I will be doing live events starting tomorrow, however. Here’s our schedule so far:

• Wed, 915am - I will be joining The Contrarians for an early live 2025 Election recap.

• Wed, Noon - Hopium hosts a live 2025 Election recap open to all. More details forthcoming.

• Wed, 7pm - Hopium paid subscribers get together for a post-election recap. Register here.

• Fri, Nov 7, 1pm ET - Hopium Founding Members weekly get together. Email invite forthcoming.

• Sat, Nov 8, 10am ET - Excited to join Swing Blue Alliance for a Frontline Update to discuss what we’ve learned from the ‘25 elections, the challenges and opportunities ahead, and how we can build on our work going forward.
  This Zoom event is open to the public.
  Register here!

• Sun, Nov 16, 4pm ET - I’ll be speaking at in-person “Drinks & Democracy” event hosted by DoTheMostGood (DTMG) in Kensington, Maryland. Register here.

As always check our Events tab on the site for the latest schedule. Also head to the Podcast tab or our links below to find discussion with Mikie Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger and Gavin Newsom; with some of our early, top 2026 candidates for the Senate and the House; with Senators like Tim Kaine and Jeanne Shaheen and House Members like Adam Smith and Yassamin Ansari; with state party chairs like Anderson Clayton and Kendall Scudder; and a whole lot more….

Now…..

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $132k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $223k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Yes on 50 (CA) - Sign Up For CA Dem Party daily phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $49k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $89k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $234k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $182,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas and watch interviews with the state Party Chairs of all 5 states | Donate to all five state parties | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please consider sending photos of your election day activity and voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com.

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so - Simon