Good point. That is why I have been watching Joe speak at events to see his "performance" with my own eyes instead of fretting over some manipulated numbers.
He was quite energetic in North Carolina after the debate. I just saw him give what I would call a great pep talk at Sen. John Fetterman's office. He is about to give a speech in Harrisburg as we speak.
The h*** with polls. I will believe what I see, not some fuzzy math.
I didn't realize we were specifically talking about PA, but PA's complicated. The national pollsters have him down, in-state pollsters have him up. Simon mentioned the most recent in-state poll last week, which had Biden leading.
In one of your previous posts, you said Biden was leading in MI and WI but was behind by 6 in PA (which you thought was an outlier). Trump was leading in states like AZ and NV but by much smaller margins, like +1 or +3.
I get kinda terrified at phonebanking too, I confess, but after that first call, it gets a lot better. I’m reminded: oh yeah, it’s fine, I’m just chatting on the phone with other people. Lotta hang-ups, sure, but there’s also people who’ll be *grateful* you called, believe it or not. And the “bad” calls are actually very rare.
I was nervous the first time I did it, too. And there was a learning curve to juggling the script and the online tool. But it's doable, and it gets easier, the more you do it. The first time you do it, I suggest you set aside an hour more than you think you'll need, to allow yourself time to ask questions to the phone bank trainers if you need to.
Also keep in mind that generally, you're calling "friendly" voters, and you're not expected to have a debate with those who disagree. Phone banking is mostly a way to identify where voters are currently leaning, so that canvassers and future phone callers can reach out later on, to nudge them along.
Up vote to this. Allan has been very loud about his "Keys" system. It would be helpful to have some guidance on this.
Alot of people throw around "But what about 1968?"
It would be helpful to have Lichtman characterize which of his Keys fell against Humphrey and why he predicted a Nixon victory. Was the incumbency key decisive? Or was Vietnam and general social unrest (another of his 2 keys) more part of the picture?
Just saying " but an open convention means we lose" is not sufficient analysis.
This Wednesday night I hosted one of my monthly postcarding parties for my friends and neighbors here in West L.A. There ended up being 46 of us on-hand (a new record), and together we handwrote 212 Vote Forward letters (also a new record) along with 587 postcards (again, a new record) to swing state voters via Progressive Voter Project and Grassroots Dems HQ.
All told, that was 799 personalized, handwritten pieces of swing voter outreach completed in just one night… that 799 total being— say it with me, now— a new record.
We still got our noses to the grindstone here in SoCal. La lucha sigue sigue.
Ok wow a record!! thank you and that’s amazing. We must keep this energy up. I just posted 600 make sure you are registered to vote postcards to Wisconsin. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org I’m actually working with them to get to 10M postcards - would love your help and your friends help!!
We've been sending postcards to Wisconsin for Tammy Baldwin, and also have a bunch of Vote Forward letters to Wisconsin voters, just waiting 'til October to launch!
Wow Kitty, great to hear!!! My friend Ruth and I sent off 800 so far and are working on 200 more for BlueWave! Glad to hear about another BlueWave post carder!!!!!
I sincerely hope your efforts prove fruitful. Have you -- or any other postcard writers -- received any feedback that the postcards are making a difference now or did have a positive impact in previous elections? Honestly, this is not a snarky question. I'd like to have more than a crossing one's fingers hope that they actually motivate people to vote or register to vote.
Tom Suozzi credited postcard writers for being instrumental in his blow-out win in the special election for NY-03. So did Donna Deegan (Jacksonville mayor) and Tom Keen (Florida House of Representatives).
Carolyn - most of the organizations have statistics on their sites on their effectiveness. There seems to be anywhere from 1-5% change for registration, voting etc. it’s small but small is what can make a difference. The more touches a person gets the more inclined they will be to register and vote.
My impression is that postcards are actually one of the most effective ways to get out the vote. A friend of mine told me that she did phone banking for the last election, and most people did not answer the phone. And the few who did answer the phone were upset about getting yet another political phone call. Blue wave postcards are colorful, well designed, and informative. They really are quite eye-catching. If I got one of those things in the mail, I absolutely would read it.
The postcards are beautifully designed and I think there is something special about getting a handwritten note instead of a text. I take special care in writing my cards so that they are colorful and easy to read. People need human touch just now and in some small way, intangible way I believe postcards deliver that.
Thank you - will tell our designer! She is a graphic designer and started working for blue mountain arts many years ago and is now focused on using her skills to make awesome postcards!!
I write letters for Vote Forward. Not only does it improve the cross-connections of people like me in blue cities with voters red states, but I have found that it has changed me personally. I am more optimistic and more energized. Every time I write a note about voting, I feel strengthened and encouraged.
I’ve read on our Hopium site writings by several community members about the data analytics on effectiveness of postcarding. I forget who but I’m hoping they see your note and respond OR suggest you research. I was surprised but pleased to read all this work does make a significant difference. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Hi! What's more effective: postcards to registered voters or to people to get them to register? I'm working on 200 PCs from PCs to Swing States and they're GOTV, so just wonder if I should consider the registering PCs as well. Thanks for your ideas!
I don’t know! Just choose what calls to you! The important thing is to do the work. Ultimately, the difference in efficacy between various volunteer opportunities is much smaller than the difference between doing anything and nothing.
My San Jose Indivisible group has been writing postcards since 2017. We meet once a month in person and write at home, as well. We have sent postcards to registered voters, non-registered folks letting them know how/where to register, in favor of specific candidates and some with a generalized message. We write for races across the country and particularly in So CA.
FieldTeam6 is fantastic for registering new voters or registered voters who skipped 2022. ActivateAmerica, Postcards to Swing States etc are terrific sources for postcarding. We are nearly 20K postcards sent since the end of January and going strong towards November!
Fabulous!!! Thank you for all your hard work!!! I've bookmarked a few of these, incl FT6. Those seemed too involved for this newbie, so PC to SS were simple and to the point, and offered short messages I didn't have to create myself. Good starting point.
Will check it out, thanks, Cheryl!! I think you were the one who wrote out a long list of PC-writing volunteer campaigns in a comment within the past week. It was great, but I forgot to bookmark it...if that was you, thank you so much, and do you happen to remember the date?
I'm working with Seniors Taking Action which is a postcarding group that partners with many other postcarding groups like FT6. We have a Wednesday Zoom speaker series (11 am EST) and the woman who spearheads Field Team 6 talked to us the other week. She is inspiring and if anyone needs a shot in the arm, you can find the recording of her talk on our website SeniorsTakingAction.org. I'm going to rewatch it as I write more postcards this weekend.
I do both. I tend to do voter registration postcards early and then switch to GOTV postcards later. Currently I am doing both along with Vote Forward letters.
Yes, your plan makes sense. I'm a bit late to the game, so that's part of why I chose PC to SS. Also didn't know about my stamina, i.e., how many I could reasonably do. Once I'm freed up from my freelance work, I can get back to it!
Donna - it takes 5-7 “touches” to get a person to make a change. And holding peoples attention for 7 seconds is considered an accomplished. With BWPM we try to have several contacts 1. Registrations 2. Requests for early voting and 3. Please vote. Our postcards also have a printed statement a QR code so the voter can easily check and then register if they need to and the a short handwritten statement with easy apply address label. All postcards and letters have been shown to be effective! Please do all you can! BWPM engages in a longer approach then just GOTV. Happy to offer more information. Keep up the good work and thank you!!!
I’m doing postcards to swing states, but also just finished my first 100 to register. The ones to swing states take a bit longer since you write out the whole message and the address. I think most of them go out in Oct. The ones I have for registering in WI are already preprinted and have mailing labels. You do write a short message, but they go pretty quickly and get mailed out right away. I thought I’d do some that I could do a little faster and then concentrate on writing the ones to my swing state. So you could do both if you wanted.
fantastic! So glad and heartened to hear of your efforts. I had a similar "personal best" -- with my family on July 4, we stepped up to our patriotic duty and did almost 200 postcards in a couple of hours. Everyone felt great to be contributing and especially those who hadn't gotten it together before to act like this. And then, several agreed to take many more packets I'd put together home with them. We can do it!!
Today, I will be mailing the 700th postcard my husband and I have done through Blue Wave postcards. We are awaiting our next batch of 200. And we’re not gonna stop there.
Thank you!! We really appreciate your efforts! We are focusing on trying to get our supporters to commit to a box and get it done! If you think you could - please give it a shot - as you know we focus on registrations and requesting mail in ballots and then voting early! Again thank you!
I wrote twenty postcards yesterday and posted them today. I'm finishing up twenty more now and I'll post them tomorrow. Doing this while listening to Simon Rosenberg helped banish the jitters. It is taking action that defeats fear. I'm also delighted to learn that Simon Rosenberg keeps copies of On Tyranny around the house and gives them to friends. I thought I was the only one. It all helps. It truly does.
Dear postcarding allies: here's a pen we use that is SO SMOOTH it makes writing postcards much easier. It is refill and we have gone thru lots of those too. Seriously I'm hoping folks will spread the word about this pen, you can get WAY more cards done because they aren't that fatiguing on your hands. Link: https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B002FSZP5A?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_title
Much of the media wants us to run around with our hair on fire. I refuse to do so. I'm not doing a single thing to help the GOP, Trump and possibly Russia. If Joe is our nominee, then I will happily vote for Joe. If he chooses not to run, then I'll vote for that person. This is not hard. Vote for democracy. I've not watched the news since last week, but I donated to Biden/Harris. I feel fine, and will continue to work to keep our country safe from extremists.
A relevant point on the incoming British Government, from the Wikipedia entry on new Chancellor (their Treasury Secretary) Rachel Reeves - the first woman to hold the job, which was created in 1316:
"Since 2022, Reeves has adhered to "modern supply-side economics", an economic policy which focuses on infrastructure, education and labour supply by rejecting tax cuts and deregulation.... It is heavily inspired by US president Joe Biden's economic policy, particularly his Inflation Reduction Act.... Reeves believes that the active state is part of an "emerging global consensus" led by Biden's administration which will replace the neoliberal economic consensus, and that economic policy must be driven by the need for security."
I'm not sure "Securonomics" is any better of a name than "Bidenomics", but I've never seen anything like that written about Joe Biden before. Ms. Reeves is certainly one person who believes that with Democrats, things get better.
They also have a social media blitz campaigne. I just attended a workshop that provided the basic steps for encouraging folks to register to vote via social media. The posts are slanted
center-left and focus on the issuses DEMS care about. Field Team 6 does ALL the work-- creating the memes, updating their software to match the various social media platforms,etc. You just select a platform (FB, Twitter, Instagram, Threads, etc) and the meme and cut and paste. Super easy and reaches lots of folks!
I know we have to do our jobs as information warriors but it does still bother me that the media seems like a dog with a new bone on this. I understand that but I do not understand why they totally ignore the bat-crap crazy stuff that trump and MAGA are saying especially about project 2025. I wonder if they believe that they will be “saved” if MAGA wins and we know that they will not. Ok back to getting the truth out about the twice impeached, convicted felon who is also found guilty of sexual assault and financial fraud.
Jan I understand your total frustration with the media and I don't get it either. BUT, as Heather Cox Richardson said last week, we can no longer count on the media. It's up to US to save ourselves. I decided yesterday that I'm no longer looking at my newsfeed, but, instead, I'm getting directly involved. Lets get this done. :-)
I think the media is finally starting to pick up Project 2025. If we focus on promoting those stories we can build momentum. Unfortunately, the sad reality is that likes and clicks determine what gets media attention. I’m sure you have been doing this, but promote, share, and like stories about Project 2025 and don’t pause, click, like or share stories that promote the current feeding frenzy. We can shift the narrative.
Appreciate the way Simon has handled this entire situation. I know its probably annoying but I will keep saying this because I feel strongly about it : DEM message is a winning one. All we need is a capable carrier of the message. My belief is that Biden should, and will, step down, and there is going to be a massive influx of positive energy from our side when it happens. Yes, of course, I am supporting whoever the nominee is, but because we are not a cult of personality on this side I am going to continue to say that we have many, many capable and dynamic leaders to carry our winning message and I will be very excited if/when we move in a new direction. The country is ready for it too, I think. Onward!
I agree, we need a credible messenger, and like it or not this is all the mainstream press will talk about for the next 4 months. The only way out of this story is to give them a new one. When Biden steps aside he will win praise and then Kamala can go on offense immediately. If we end up with a bunch of she's not ready stories I'd much rather have that fight - which we can win - because then it's a choice between a newcomer and a manifest maniac. This Cognitive ability debate is one we can never settle. We are better off fighting on more strategic ground!
Hi Simon! Great article as always. What I am hoping to see is more discussion about the recent SCOTUS decision regarding presidential immunity and Project 2025. We must hammer home those 2 issues because they are a threat to our nation and our democracy.
Yes! I wholeheartedly agree. Project 2025 is 900 pages long and needs to be sorted out so we can talk more specifically about what it will do if Trump is elected.
On another note, Andrew Weissman suggested a Harris /Cheney ticket if what we are going for is a win for Democracy. Fascinating idea!
I disagree, it is buying into the Fox News argument that Dems are bad. It is sending more than just a unity message. It is also sending that we are not good enough on our own message. We are just giving them power and permission to see downballot Republicans as acceptable.
It is the same reason why we should not hang our hat on Independents who might caucus with us. We need to be selling the message that we are good and capable. If Cheney or Kinsigner wanted to become Dems, so be it, but we should not be in the practice of giving away our power and legitimizing those Republicans who want to be somewhere between Trump and Cheney.
I am of the general opinion that Democrats, for the foreseeable future, should not appoint Republicans to any positions.
The only two exceptions I see are Secretary of the VA, and ambassadorships. VA seems like a quagmire of failure and great post for a Republican in a Dem admin. If they somehow fix it, great take credit, if it is a SNAFU fire them and blame your bipartisan tendencies.
Ambassadorships seem like a plausible way to take pieces of the the chess board. If you see a moderate Republican who might run for Senate or Governor in a swing state, try to get them to be the ambassador to Turkey, or Israel, or Italy.
Are you kidding me? Look at her voting record while in Congress. Cheney supported Trump policies close to 100% of the time. She stood up for the constitution and showed integrity, but I cannot support any of her preferred policy solutions. Please do your own research!
VP Harris should not pick a Republican on the other half of the ticket if she becomes the nominee. A pledge to look at Liz Cheney or Adam Kingingser for some cabinet post maybe, but something like VP is too clever by half.
It is important for the house, senate races and other down ballot races that we do not buy into the argument that we need Republicans to legitimize us. We should not be in the practice of giving away our power for a bankshot grab at a few votes.
Wow, I'm surprised by that. IMO, Cheney has a lot of cred right now, deservedly so, but her policy positions are extreme. I just hope it doesn't come to these decisions, but if it does, we can do better with one of our own (a moderate Dem like Beshear).
Andrew maybe putting in too many hours on cable. Have stayed off cable since just before debate. Pleased to have missed it. Can’t bear to see or hear any of the cable bobble heads and or read the print analysts since they decided they are obligated to conduct frenzies on our wonderful President Biden. Thoroughly disgusted by all of them, so seduced by their own self-perceived brilliance.
Another batch of postcards arrived in mail today. Whoever would have imagined that feels like finding a savior.
I continue to find it funny that Trump does not understand why people like dogs.
RJK Jr. is currently collapsing because he cannot with a straight face say he did not eat a dog, and Trump is out here associating Joe Biden with man's best friend.
What's this about eating a dog? [how about a RFKjr/ Kristy Noem anti-dog ticket]. I'm trying to change the subject from dem ticket - giving it a rest for a week.
Since when does the press tell us how to vote? It seems that the NYTimes and the Washington Post are deliberately trying to push President Biden to step down. And of course the GOP are having a field day. When the polls tell us that Biden is the most likely to defeat Trump, it’s pretty clear why they’re trying to push him aside.
Yesterday the NYT published an op-ed from someone in Michigan, one of the most critical states for Biden. The title? "Why I Don’t Vote. And Why Maybe You Shouldn’t Either". WTF?? And on the 4th of July??? I forget where I saw it mentioned, probably the DailyKos, but here is the link even though the article is behind a paywall.
I think the majority of real Christians is on Joe’s side. Christianists are not.
(Just as we distinguish between Muslims and Islamists, I believe it is crucial to distinguish between Christians and Christianists. They bear little resemblance.)
EDIT: Here is the Christianist "Republican Jesus".
He’s also voted in both of the last two elections - he’s a liar and part of the continuing nonsense from the NYT. He was a student “leader” at Hillsdale College - his nonsense should not have passed even the most basic of smell tests - unless the NYT had other motives for publishing such brazen bs.
The MSM has totally gone off the deep edge... the debate reporting should have been about the LYING FELON on the stage, not the age of Biden. The LYING FELON is only 3 years younger than BIDEN and is dumb as a log... that should have been the reporting. The media has given up all pretenses to truthful, knowledgeable, unbiased reporting. They are absolutely useless.
Yes, and the Rs have NOTHING. that's why they're trying to change the topic to 'Biden must step down'. The Heritage Foundation's fantasy 'Second American Revolution' is in reality the 'Second Lost Cause'
Very disappointing to me is Nicolle Wallace, who had a whole series a couple months back on how the media should cover T responsibly. Now look at MSNBC [well, I'm not looking actually, saving enormous amounts of time by only watching Lawrence O'Donnell]
President Biden needs to step aside. We need a new candidate. I firmly believe that President Biden is a great president and a true patriot, but he cannot rally Independents and leaners. We do not need to convince each other here that President Biden is great. I think he’s great and donated $2k to his campaign, but we need to convince all of our neighbors who are not Democrats that our democracy is at stake.
Sorry, that's bullshit. This Independent changed her registration on Monday to Democrat, in protest of the SCOTUS decision giving TFG what he wanted and then some, and to make clear my support of President Biden. I also signed up to write postcards with Commit2Democracy and will be sending my first set out by Monday at the latest. I'm exploring other actions as well.
I am 100% committed to Biden. This "he's too old/mentally unfit" crap smells a lot like the "Hillary's illness" nonsense peddled by David Pecker back in the day. He told us how he did it! How can so many people be falling for the same routine, just because it's pushed by the NYT and WaPo this time, rather than Pecker's rag?
I'm 76. My adult children and grandchildren who vote democratic are telling me they want another candidate for many reasons. They cannot unsee what they saw last Thursday night. I cannot. I agree that President Biden's administration is doing a terrific job on most issues but I'm 76 and completely question how Joe could make it another 4 years. Trump also. My 75 year old husband was diagnosed with colorectal cancer this year and is in the fight for his life. Aging happens and every year older you get deeper into it. Loss of hearing, loss of the ability to focus all day long, imbalance issues increase, likelihood of falls increases, every year some new health issue pops up!
Based on conversations I have had with my adult children and their friends, my guess is that all of Kathleen’s grandchildren do care and are fearful of the implications of a Trump
presidency. But they are also fearful of Biden’s obvious limitations and inability to effectively articulate positions to fight back against the MAGAs. They think that Biden will lose.
That’s what I am hearing. A group of 22-24 year-olds, all graduate students, expressed astonishment and dismay to me yesterday as to Biden. One said she started crying half way through the debate. They desperately want someone different. They think Biden will lose.
I don’t think there is anything in JCOK’s comment to suggest these young voters fear democracy. They seem to fear, as I do, that President Biden cannot win this election which will be the death nell for our democracy. The stories that are coming out of the White House about President Biden’s functioning are bad. I share your deep concern about women’s rights and all of our rights. It is not anti-democracy to believe that Biden needs to step aside. I think that you and I and all of us desperately want the same thing — to defeat Trump.
They do not fear democracy. They fear Biden is the wrong candidate to defeat Trump and from the perspective of many of these young folks, it is mind boggling the rest can’t see that.
It's mind-boggling to me that so many people don't realize the logistics of getting a brand-new campaign off the ground. It isn't a matter of putting coins in a vending machine and getting something out!
Every one is different... ages differently... Biden seems the same as ever to me...arthritus in his back makes him stiff.. if you've ever flown over seas then you should know what that does to you... I've never done it several times in different directions, and coming down with sickness due to it, is something everyone encounters who travel like that. Don't tell me that if you're president you have to be able to perform in spite of all that he did before the debate, he's human.
Why does everyone use this one bad debate for putting Biden over the edge? that idea is mindboggling for me... I get the TIMES and POST and their NEED for clicks... they have become useless to me. But jumping on the Biden Must Go train seems self defeating at the very least.
I think that’s a bit unfair. Kathleen is respectfully presenting a perspective many, many, many typical Dem and swing voters have. Every poll suggests this is the case and that last Thursday made this negative dynamic much, much worse. This issue is whether it is now unsalvageable for Biden. When folks like Governor Maura Healey say it is, we should all take a step back to look at this objectively to ascertain what is the best path to save democracy.
I adore Biden. I think he is one of the greatest 1st term POTUSs in history. Given what I saw last Thursday and from what I am reading from journalists I trust, I do not think he is our best chance to stop Trump. I fear Biden will have more episodes before November, no matter how carefully he is handled.
In all four areas, Biden has excelled. His record speaks for itself. I have supported him since Charlottesville. I have no doubt that every day he is president, our country is safer and more prosperous. But I think now the only question is whether he can beat Trump. There is no easy answer — and tgere is no safe decision, but I think the best shot we have is for Joe to pass the baton to Kamala.
I have a simple question - will your children and grandchildren vote for Biden or the other Democratic candidate if he is replaced? I think that the real issue is clearly voting for the Democrat no matter what whether then worrying about Biden's age.
More people will vote for a non-Biden option. See the internal Democratic polling from earlier this week. Of course I will be voting for Biden if he stays in the race! He is a great president, but millions of other Americans cannot be convinced.
Maybe because I tend to be rather analytical and not emotionally attached to political candidates, my motivation to vote for whoever heads the ticket is the same.
@Kathleen may your husband find strength in the battle for his life. I am holding space for you and your family. My father-in-law beat cancer in the last couple of years. I send you strength!
I am 75 and i have no problem at all with Joe. He works an incredibly difficult schedule and trying to campaign. If he had an off night, we all have an off night. Sure you slow down a bit as you age but Joe is so much better than any one else. And his age is asset because it means he is has the vast experience to govern in this challenging time. Joe has my support regardless of his age.
I respectfully disagree. See my comment above. Kathleen’s sentiments are real. I’ve had the same discussions with my adult children and their friends. And every poll indicates a very strong negative dynamic for Biden in this regard. We have to be realistic. I hope to God Biden’s advisors are being realistic.
She means the top level comment, and I agree it smells like a troll account has infiltrated. It makes sense that Putin would pay for access to Simon’s community, given how strong and action-oriented we are. Whether he/it is a troll account or not, it’s clear a lot of people here think the content of its post is utter hogwash. As do I.
Great summary of Biden’s achievements from Governor Gavin Newsom!
We have a huge challenge in this post-factual era, where perception to an alarming degree is divorced from reality. This is, of course, accentuated by the "bubbles of disinformation" created by certain news media where good news that could be credited to our president and Team Biden isn’t even published or broadcast – and if it is, is given a negative taint.
Good news from France! The Left and Macron’s center-right is uniting to try to prevent the extreme-right National Rally from gaining power. (They are doing so by the third-place polling candidate dropping out. That would be comparable to Jill Stein and Cornel West dropping out of the race and endorsing Biden. And perhaps even Nikki Haley doing the same!)An excellent op-ed by Rokhaya Diallo.
It would be remiss to fail to point out that Labour’s landslide election victory in the UK comes with an important caveat that should not be ignored: angry Muslim constituents rose to help pro-Palestinian candidates defeat four Labour candidates, one of them prominent: Jonathan Ashworth, Shadow Cabinet Office minister.
I must say my resolve to "do more, worry less" is back, it was tested mightily yesterday, with reports of certain donors apparently announcing they'll halt donations until Biden steps down ! WTF?! Obviously I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is but let's not let Abigail Disney & other millionaires do the media's work nor decide who our nominee is! I seriously hope Joe does NOT give in !
Good point. That is why I have been watching Joe speak at events to see his "performance" with my own eyes instead of fretting over some manipulated numbers.
He was quite energetic in North Carolina after the debate. I just saw him give what I would call a great pep talk at Sen. John Fetterman's office. He is about to give a speech in Harrisburg as we speak.
The h*** with polls. I will believe what I see, not some fuzzy math.
Vote for Joe and Kamala. Vote Blue. 😊
All true, and the polls aren't actually that bad in any case.
I thought Biden was trailing Trump in Pennsylvania. Did something change?
I didn't realize we were specifically talking about PA, but PA's complicated. The national pollsters have him down, in-state pollsters have him up. Simon mentioned the most recent in-state poll last week, which had Biden leading.
In one of your previous posts, you said Biden was leading in MI and WI but was behind by 6 in PA (which you thought was an outlier). Trump was leading in states like AZ and NV but by much smaller margins, like +1 or +3.
That's just the most recent Bloomberg panel. There's a pattern across all the polls.
PLEASE refer to the DemocratIC Party. Don't unwittingly spread the contempt of the Republicans, who use "Democrat Party" as a slur.
Than you!
Er . . . thanK you . . .
I get kinda terrified at phonebanking too, I confess, but after that first call, it gets a lot better. I’m reminded: oh yeah, it’s fine, I’m just chatting on the phone with other people. Lotta hang-ups, sure, but there’s also people who’ll be *grateful* you called, believe it or not. And the “bad” calls are actually very rare.
I was nervous the first time I did it, too. And there was a learning curve to juggling the script and the online tool. But it's doable, and it gets easier, the more you do it. The first time you do it, I suggest you set aside an hour more than you think you'll need, to allow yourself time to ask questions to the phone bank trainers if you need to.
Also keep in mind that generally, you're calling "friendly" voters, and you're not expected to have a debate with those who disagree. Phone banking is mostly a way to identify where voters are currently leaning, so that canvassers and future phone callers can reach out later on, to nudge them along.
Thanks, Brad. I posted a different version of the same message.
Up vote to this. Allan has been very loud about his "Keys" system. It would be helpful to have some guidance on this.
Alot of people throw around "But what about 1968?"
It would be helpful to have Lichtman characterize which of his Keys fell against Humphrey and why he predicted a Nixon victory. Was the incumbency key decisive? Or was Vietnam and general social unrest (another of his 2 keys) more part of the picture?
Just saying " but an open convention means we lose" is not sufficient analysis.
This Wednesday night I hosted one of my monthly postcarding parties for my friends and neighbors here in West L.A. There ended up being 46 of us on-hand (a new record), and together we handwrote 212 Vote Forward letters (also a new record) along with 587 postcards (again, a new record) to swing state voters via Progressive Voter Project and Grassroots Dems HQ.
All told, that was 799 personalized, handwritten pieces of swing voter outreach completed in just one night… that 799 total being— say it with me, now— a new record.
We still got our noses to the grindstone here in SoCal. La lucha sigue sigue.
Very impressive! Thank you.
Thank you. Plugging away here in Durham, NC. Let’s do this.
Thank you!
Ok wow a record!! thank you and that’s amazing. We must keep this energy up. I just posted 600 make sure you are registered to vote postcards to Wisconsin. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org I’m actually working with them to get to 10M postcards - would love your help and your friends help!!
We've been sending postcards to Wisconsin for Tammy Baldwin, and also have a bunch of Vote Forward letters to Wisconsin voters, just waiting 'til October to launch!
Wow Kitty, great to hear!!! My friend Ruth and I sent off 800 so far and are working on 200 more for BlueWave! Glad to hear about another BlueWave post carder!!!!!
Thank you thank you!! Keep up the good work. Thanks for helping us sell out our campaigns.
Keep going w the postal front ! We’re starting phone bank training this Sunday !
Thank you so much!
I sincerely hope your efforts prove fruitful. Have you -- or any other postcard writers -- received any feedback that the postcards are making a difference now or did have a positive impact in previous elections? Honestly, this is not a snarky question. I'd like to have more than a crossing one's fingers hope that they actually motivate people to vote or register to vote.
Tom Suozzi credited postcard writers for being instrumental in his blow-out win in the special election for NY-03. So did Donna Deegan (Jacksonville mayor) and Tom Keen (Florida House of Representatives).
Carolyn - most of the organizations have statistics on their sites on their effectiveness. There seems to be anywhere from 1-5% change for registration, voting etc. it’s small but small is what can make a difference. The more touches a person gets the more inclined they will be to register and vote.
https://turnoutpac.medium.com/a-gateway-to-activism-postcards-win-close-elections-5bf7f45da15a
Thanks for posting this one. I was about to do it but you took care of it for me, for us. Thanks.
Thanks for the link. Very informative.
My impression is that postcards are actually one of the most effective ways to get out the vote. A friend of mine told me that she did phone banking for the last election, and most people did not answer the phone. And the few who did answer the phone were upset about getting yet another political phone call. Blue wave postcards are colorful, well designed, and informative. They really are quite eye-catching. If I got one of those things in the mail, I absolutely would read it.
The postcards are beautifully designed and I think there is something special about getting a handwritten note instead of a text. I take special care in writing my cards so that they are colorful and easy to read. People need human touch just now and in some small way, intangible way I believe postcards deliver that.
Thank you - will tell our designer! She is a graphic designer and started working for blue mountain arts many years ago and is now focused on using her skills to make awesome postcards!!
Thank you - I will tell our designer that you like the cards. Love that feedback. She will be totally happy.
I write letters for Vote Forward. Not only does it improve the cross-connections of people like me in blue cities with voters red states, but I have found that it has changed me personally. I am more optimistic and more energized. Every time I write a note about voting, I feel strengthened and encouraged.
Here are some numbers from Blue Wave Postcard Movement: https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/pages/why-postcards
Peach blossom,
I’ve read on our Hopium site writings by several community members about the data analytics on effectiveness of postcarding. I forget who but I’m hoping they see your note and respond OR suggest you research. I was surprised but pleased to read all this work does make a significant difference. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Fantastic! Thank you for all of that and your ongoing work, from a tiny blue dot in a sea of red.
Hi! What's more effective: postcards to registered voters or to people to get them to register? I'm working on 200 PCs from PCs to Swing States and they're GOTV, so just wonder if I should consider the registering PCs as well. Thanks for your ideas!
I don’t know! Just choose what calls to you! The important thing is to do the work. Ultimately, the difference in efficacy between various volunteer opportunities is much smaller than the difference between doing anything and nothing.
Makes sense, thanks! And tons of thanks for putting out such a volume of work! Very inspiring.
Truer words were never spoken. Do what you are good at and utilize your strengths. That way you'll have more satisfaction and do more of it.
My San Jose Indivisible group has been writing postcards since 2017. We meet once a month in person and write at home, as well. We have sent postcards to registered voters, non-registered folks letting them know how/where to register, in favor of specific candidates and some with a generalized message. We write for races across the country and particularly in So CA.
FieldTeam6 is fantastic for registering new voters or registered voters who skipped 2022. ActivateAmerica, Postcards to Swing States etc are terrific sources for postcarding. We are nearly 20K postcards sent since the end of January and going strong towards November!
Fabulous!!! Thank you for all your hard work!!! I've bookmarked a few of these, incl FT6. Those seemed too involved for this newbie, so PC to SS were simple and to the point, and offered short messages I didn't have to create myself. Good starting point.
If you are looking for something simple, you may want to check out a new FT6 campaign that appears to be modeled on the Blue Wave Postcard movement.
https://fieldteam6.myshopify.com/collections/post-cards/products/florida
Will check it out, thanks, Cheryl!! I think you were the one who wrote out a long list of PC-writing volunteer campaigns in a comment within the past week. It was great, but I forgot to bookmark it...if that was you, thank you so much, and do you happen to remember the date?
Was it this comment?
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/our-july-plans-voting-on-day-1-dems/comment/60734755?utm_source=activity_item
Thank you for writing! Please keep BWPM as an option as well! Feel free to reach out with questions. GOTV!!
I'm working with Seniors Taking Action which is a postcarding group that partners with many other postcarding groups like FT6. We have a Wednesday Zoom speaker series (11 am EST) and the woman who spearheads Field Team 6 talked to us the other week. She is inspiring and if anyone needs a shot in the arm, you can find the recording of her talk on our website SeniorsTakingAction.org. I'm going to rewatch it as I write more postcards this weekend.
I just listened to the recording - while I wrote some postcards!!
I agree, she is very inspiring.
I do both. I tend to do voter registration postcards early and then switch to GOTV postcards later. Currently I am doing both along with Vote Forward letters.
Yes, your plan makes sense. I'm a bit late to the game, so that's part of why I chose PC to SS. Also didn't know about my stamina, i.e., how many I could reasonably do. Once I'm freed up from my freelance work, I can get back to it!
Donna - it takes 5-7 “touches” to get a person to make a change. And holding peoples attention for 7 seconds is considered an accomplished. With BWPM we try to have several contacts 1. Registrations 2. Requests for early voting and 3. Please vote. Our postcards also have a printed statement a QR code so the voter can easily check and then register if they need to and the a short handwritten statement with easy apply address label. All postcards and letters have been shown to be effective! Please do all you can! BWPM engages in a longer approach then just GOTV. Happy to offer more information. Keep up the good work and thank you!!!
Very interesting!! Thank you for this info. I'll check out Blue Wave as well. Love the name, too!! Thank you as well!!
I’m doing postcards to swing states, but also just finished my first 100 to register. The ones to swing states take a bit longer since you write out the whole message and the address. I think most of them go out in Oct. The ones I have for registering in WI are already preprinted and have mailing labels. You do write a short message, but they go pretty quickly and get mailed out right away. I thought I’d do some that I could do a little faster and then concentrate on writing the ones to my swing state. So you could do both if you wanted.
Thank you for your ideas!!
fantastic! So glad and heartened to hear of your efforts. I had a similar "personal best" -- with my family on July 4, we stepped up to our patriotic duty and did almost 200 postcards in a couple of hours. Everyone felt great to be contributing and especially those who hadn't gotten it together before to act like this. And then, several agreed to take many more packets I'd put together home with them. We can do it!!
Brilliant! Well done you! And your beautiful and patriotic family! 💙
That was a great idea!!
Today, I will be mailing the 700th postcard my husband and I have done through Blue Wave postcards. We are awaiting our next batch of 200. And we’re not gonna stop there.
I’m with you Michelle! No stopping!!🇺🇸
Thank you!! We really appreciate your efforts! We are focusing on trying to get our supporters to commit to a box and get it done! If you think you could - please give it a shot - as you know we focus on registrations and requesting mail in ballots and then voting early! Again thank you!
I wrote twenty postcards yesterday and posted them today. I'm finishing up twenty more now and I'll post them tomorrow. Doing this while listening to Simon Rosenberg helped banish the jitters. It is taking action that defeats fear. I'm also delighted to learn that Simon Rosenberg keeps copies of On Tyranny around the house and gives them to friends. I thought I was the only one. It all helps. It truly does.
Bless you Patrick and bless all your friends and neighbors. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Hi Patrick, I’m in LA please let me know about your next get together…it would be great to join and help out. Thanks.
Tom, email me at patsburgh at yahoo and I'll add you to my blast list.
Dear postcarding allies: here's a pen we use that is SO SMOOTH it makes writing postcards much easier. It is refill and we have gone thru lots of those too. Seriously I'm hoping folks will spread the word about this pen, you can get WAY more cards done because they aren't that fatiguing on your hands. Link: https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B002FSZP5A?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_title
Thank you very much!!
Much of the media wants us to run around with our hair on fire. I refuse to do so. I'm not doing a single thing to help the GOP, Trump and possibly Russia. If Joe is our nominee, then I will happily vote for Joe. If he chooses not to run, then I'll vote for that person. This is not hard. Vote for democracy. I've not watched the news since last week, but I donated to Biden/Harris. I feel fine, and will continue to work to keep our country safe from extremists.
I totally agree. Let's follow the George Washington model. The President decided when he steps down.
And Joe will. He's honest as the day is long and has our country at heart. He will not run or serve if he believes he cannot.
Love it, Nancy. You said what I was thinking.
Ditto
🤣💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!loved this!
A relevant point on the incoming British Government, from the Wikipedia entry on new Chancellor (their Treasury Secretary) Rachel Reeves - the first woman to hold the job, which was created in 1316:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Reeves
"Since 2022, Reeves has adhered to "modern supply-side economics", an economic policy which focuses on infrastructure, education and labour supply by rejecting tax cuts and deregulation.... It is heavily inspired by US president Joe Biden's economic policy, particularly his Inflation Reduction Act.... Reeves believes that the active state is part of an "emerging global consensus" led by Biden's administration which will replace the neoliberal economic consensus, and that economic policy must be driven by the need for security."
I'm not sure "Securonomics" is any better of a name than "Bidenomics", but I've never seen anything like that written about Joe Biden before. Ms. Reeves is certainly one person who believes that with Democrats, things get better.
fascinating, thanks for posting
Thank you for sharing this! Now, I hope the Biden campaigne and the British Government shout this from the rooftops!
Very cool!
Enlarge the base. https://danielsolomon.substack.com/p/enlarge-the-base?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=742145&post_id=146306993&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=zc69i&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
They also have a social media blitz campaigne. I just attended a workshop that provided the basic steps for encouraging folks to register to vote via social media. The posts are slanted
center-left and focus on the issuses DEMS care about. Field Team 6 does ALL the work-- creating the memes, updating their software to match the various social media platforms,etc. You just select a platform (FB, Twitter, Instagram, Threads, etc) and the meme and cut and paste. Super easy and reaches lots of folks!
I've been recommending comments like "not suckers or losers" on military, veterans, historical sites. I'm in a DNC veterans' discussion group. Lots of anecdotal evidence that it works to flip even people who voter for Trump twice. https://votevets.org/press-releases/votevets-statement-on-president-trumps-referring-to-military-personnel-killed-in-action-as-losers-and-suckers https://rvat.org/
I also recommend comments on sites like Taylor Swift with the registration link attached. https://voterizer.org/
About 15 large Facebook sites that have Democratic members like Women for Biden-Harris, Seniors for Biden Harris 2024 - National, etc.
I know we have to do our jobs as information warriors but it does still bother me that the media seems like a dog with a new bone on this. I understand that but I do not understand why they totally ignore the bat-crap crazy stuff that trump and MAGA are saying especially about project 2025. I wonder if they believe that they will be “saved” if MAGA wins and we know that they will not. Ok back to getting the truth out about the twice impeached, convicted felon who is also found guilty of sexual assault and financial fraud.
Jan I understand your total frustration with the media and I don't get it either. BUT, as Heather Cox Richardson said last week, we can no longer count on the media. It's up to US to save ourselves. I decided yesterday that I'm no longer looking at my newsfeed, but, instead, I'm getting directly involved. Lets get this done. :-)
I think the media is finally starting to pick up Project 2025. If we focus on promoting those stories we can build momentum. Unfortunately, the sad reality is that likes and clicks determine what gets media attention. I’m sure you have been doing this, but promote, share, and like stories about Project 2025 and don’t pause, click, like or share stories that promote the current feeding frenzy. We can shift the narrative.
Appreciate the way Simon has handled this entire situation. I know its probably annoying but I will keep saying this because I feel strongly about it : DEM message is a winning one. All we need is a capable carrier of the message. My belief is that Biden should, and will, step down, and there is going to be a massive influx of positive energy from our side when it happens. Yes, of course, I am supporting whoever the nominee is, but because we are not a cult of personality on this side I am going to continue to say that we have many, many capable and dynamic leaders to carry our winning message and I will be very excited if/when we move in a new direction. The country is ready for it too, I think. Onward!
I agree, we need a credible messenger, and like it or not this is all the mainstream press will talk about for the next 4 months. The only way out of this story is to give them a new one. When Biden steps aside he will win praise and then Kamala can go on offense immediately. If we end up with a bunch of she's not ready stories I'd much rather have that fight - which we can win - because then it's a choice between a newcomer and a manifest maniac. This Cognitive ability debate is one we can never settle. We are better off fighting on more strategic ground!
Hi Simon! Great article as always. What I am hoping to see is more discussion about the recent SCOTUS decision regarding presidential immunity and Project 2025. We must hammer home those 2 issues because they are a threat to our nation and our democracy.
Yes! I wholeheartedly agree. Project 2025 is 900 pages long and needs to be sorted out so we can talk more specifically about what it will do if Trump is elected.
On another note, Andrew Weissman suggested a Harris /Cheney ticket if what we are going for is a win for Democracy. Fascinating idea!
I'm still behind Joe, but Harris/Cheney is indeed an intriguing idea.
I disagree, it is buying into the Fox News argument that Dems are bad. It is sending more than just a unity message. It is also sending that we are not good enough on our own message. We are just giving them power and permission to see downballot Republicans as acceptable.
It is the same reason why we should not hang our hat on Independents who might caucus with us. We need to be selling the message that we are good and capable. If Cheney or Kinsigner wanted to become Dems, so be it, but we should not be in the practice of giving away our power and legitimizing those Republicans who want to be somewhere between Trump and Cheney.
I am of the general opinion that Democrats, for the foreseeable future, should not appoint Republicans to any positions.
The only two exceptions I see are Secretary of the VA, and ambassadorships. VA seems like a quagmire of failure and great post for a Republican in a Dem admin. If they somehow fix it, great take credit, if it is a SNAFU fire them and blame your bipartisan tendencies.
Ambassadorships seem like a plausible way to take pieces of the the chess board. If you see a moderate Republican who might run for Senate or Governor in a swing state, try to get them to be the ambassador to Turkey, or Israel, or Italy.
Are you kidding me? Look at her voting record while in Congress. Cheney supported Trump policies close to 100% of the time. She stood up for the constitution and showed integrity, but I cannot support any of her preferred policy solutions. Please do your own research!
Excuse me, Cheryl, but I know all about Liz Cheney, thank you.
VP Harris should not pick a Republican on the other half of the ticket if she becomes the nominee. A pledge to look at Liz Cheney or Adam Kingingser for some cabinet post maybe, but something like VP is too clever by half.
It is important for the house, senate races and other down ballot races that we do not buy into the argument that we need Republicans to legitimize us. We should not be in the practice of giving away our power for a bankshot grab at a few votes.
Wow, I'm surprised by that. IMO, Cheney has a lot of cred right now, deservedly so, but her policy positions are extreme. I just hope it doesn't come to these decisions, but if it does, we can do better with one of our own (a moderate Dem like Beshear).
She voted with the lying, raping, coup-plotting felon 90%+ of the time. No Cheney. No never no more.
Yes, yes, and yes!
That makes me disappointed in Weissman. I like him a lot, normally.
Andrew maybe putting in too many hours on cable. Have stayed off cable since just before debate. Pleased to have missed it. Can’t bear to see or hear any of the cable bobble heads and or read the print analysts since they decided they are obligated to conduct frenzies on our wonderful President Biden. Thoroughly disgusted by all of them, so seduced by their own self-perceived brilliance.
Another batch of postcards arrived in mail today. Whoever would have imagined that feels like finding a savior.
I continue to find it funny that Trump does not understand why people like dogs.
RJK Jr. is currently collapsing because he cannot with a straight face say he did not eat a dog, and Trump is out here associating Joe Biden with man's best friend.
What's this about eating a dog? [how about a RFKjr/ Kristy Noem anti-dog ticket]. I'm trying to change the subject from dem ticket - giving it a rest for a week.
Recent Vanity Fair article on RFK Jr.
Thank you, and I see to cover bases the ticket could be both anti-dog and anti-goat!
Since when does the press tell us how to vote? It seems that the NYTimes and the Washington Post are deliberately trying to push President Biden to step down. And of course the GOP are having a field day. When the polls tell us that Biden is the most likely to defeat Trump, it’s pretty clear why they’re trying to push him aside.
yes
Yesterday the NYT published an op-ed from someone in Michigan, one of the most critical states for Biden. The title? "Why I Don’t Vote. And Why Maybe You Shouldn’t Either". WTF?? And on the 4th of July??? I forget where I saw it mentioned, probably the DailyKos, but here is the link even though the article is behind a paywall.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/opinion/not-voting-elections.html
EDIT: NYT has removed the article from its front page and changed the title to "Why I Don’t Vote"
That's so aggravating! I stopped reading the Times a while ago.
The guy who wrote that op-ed is a Catholic Literary Journal editor... not sure that the religious right is on Joe's side...
I think the majority of real Christians is on Joe’s side. Christianists are not.
(Just as we distinguish between Muslims and Islamists, I believe it is crucial to distinguish between Christians and Christianists. They bear little resemblance.)
EDIT: Here is the Christianist "Republican Jesus".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2L-R8NgrA&t=18s
He’s also voted in both of the last two elections - he’s a liar and part of the continuing nonsense from the NYT. He was a student “leader” at Hillsdale College - his nonsense should not have passed even the most basic of smell tests - unless the NYT had other motives for publishing such brazen bs.
Beware men in black robes.
IMO that NYTimes move is pathetic, and reeks of desperation
The MSM has totally gone off the deep edge... the debate reporting should have been about the LYING FELON on the stage, not the age of Biden. The LYING FELON is only 3 years younger than BIDEN and is dumb as a log... that should have been the reporting. The media has given up all pretenses to truthful, knowledgeable, unbiased reporting. They are absolutely useless.
Yes, and the Rs have NOTHING. that's why they're trying to change the topic to 'Biden must step down'. The Heritage Foundation's fantasy 'Second American Revolution' is in reality the 'Second Lost Cause'
Very disappointing to me is Nicolle Wallace, who had a whole series a couple months back on how the media should cover T responsibly. Now look at MSNBC [well, I'm not looking actually, saving enormous amounts of time by only watching Lawrence O'Donnell]
I also highly recommend not playing into their hand by discussing 'Biden must step down' - take a break for a week from this topic
Yup - if they're turning to Hillsdale grads for their content they don't have anything better.
Author is a right-wing activist, to boot. Hillsdale College grad. Also, he voted in the last two elections. Total shitshow by NYT
How about "Why I cancelled my subscription to the NY Times. And why you should too!"
Cancelled several years ago. As I noted, I saw the NYT article mentioned elsewhere.
President Biden needs to step aside. We need a new candidate. I firmly believe that President Biden is a great president and a true patriot, but he cannot rally Independents and leaners. We do not need to convince each other here that President Biden is great. I think he’s great and donated $2k to his campaign, but we need to convince all of our neighbors who are not Democrats that our democracy is at stake.
Sorry, that's bullshit. This Independent changed her registration on Monday to Democrat, in protest of the SCOTUS decision giving TFG what he wanted and then some, and to make clear my support of President Biden. I also signed up to write postcards with Commit2Democracy and will be sending my first set out by Monday at the latest. I'm exploring other actions as well.
I am 100% committed to Biden. This "he's too old/mentally unfit" crap smells a lot like the "Hillary's illness" nonsense peddled by David Pecker back in the day. He told us how he did it! How can so many people be falling for the same routine, just because it's pushed by the NYT and WaPo this time, rather than Pecker's rag?
Moscow...
Exactly!!!
Of course they're involved too; I didn't mean to imply otherwise.
ok comradeski
I'm 76. My adult children and grandchildren who vote democratic are telling me they want another candidate for many reasons. They cannot unsee what they saw last Thursday night. I cannot. I agree that President Biden's administration is doing a terrific job on most issues but I'm 76 and completely question how Joe could make it another 4 years. Trump also. My 75 year old husband was diagnosed with colorectal cancer this year and is in the fight for his life. Aging happens and every year older you get deeper into it. Loss of hearing, loss of the ability to focus all day long, imbalance issues increase, likelihood of falls increases, every year some new health issue pops up!
Based on conversations I have had with my adult children and their friends, my guess is that all of Kathleen’s grandchildren do care and are fearful of the implications of a Trump
presidency. But they are also fearful of Biden’s obvious limitations and inability to effectively articulate positions to fight back against the MAGAs. They think that Biden will lose.
That’s what I am hearing. A group of 22-24 year-olds, all graduate students, expressed astonishment and dismay to me yesterday as to Biden. One said she started crying half way through the debate. They desperately want someone different. They think Biden will lose.
I don’t think there is anything in JCOK’s comment to suggest these young voters fear democracy. They seem to fear, as I do, that President Biden cannot win this election which will be the death nell for our democracy. The stories that are coming out of the White House about President Biden’s functioning are bad. I share your deep concern about women’s rights and all of our rights. It is not anti-democracy to believe that Biden needs to step aside. I think that you and I and all of us desperately want the same thing — to defeat Trump.
They do not fear democracy. They fear Biden is the wrong candidate to defeat Trump and from the perspective of many of these young folks, it is mind boggling the rest can’t see that.
It's mind-boggling to me that so many people don't realize the logistics of getting a brand-new campaign off the ground. It isn't a matter of putting coins in a vending machine and getting something out!
Every one is different... ages differently... Biden seems the same as ever to me...arthritus in his back makes him stiff.. if you've ever flown over seas then you should know what that does to you... I've never done it several times in different directions, and coming down with sickness due to it, is something everyone encounters who travel like that. Don't tell me that if you're president you have to be able to perform in spite of all that he did before the debate, he's human.
Why does everyone use this one bad debate for putting Biden over the edge? that idea is mindboggling for me... I get the TIMES and POST and their NEED for clicks... they have become useless to me. But jumping on the Biden Must Go train seems self defeating at the very least.
I think that’s a bit unfair. Kathleen is respectfully presenting a perspective many, many, many typical Dem and swing voters have. Every poll suggests this is the case and that last Thursday made this negative dynamic much, much worse. This issue is whether it is now unsalvageable for Biden. When folks like Governor Maura Healey say it is, we should all take a step back to look at this objectively to ascertain what is the best path to save democracy.
I adore Biden. I think he is one of the greatest 1st term POTUSs in history. Given what I saw last Thursday and from what I am reading from journalists I trust, I do not think he is our best chance to stop Trump. I fear Biden will have more episodes before November, no matter how carefully he is handled.
Only four things matter in being president—
Judgment
Courage
Persuasion
Results
In all four areas, Biden has excelled. His record speaks for itself. I have supported him since Charlottesville. I have no doubt that every day he is president, our country is safer and more prosperous. But I think now the only question is whether he can beat Trump. There is no easy answer — and tgere is no safe decision, but I think the best shot we have is for Joe to pass the baton to Kamala.
I’ve slowly come to the same conclusion over the last week. Makes me sad b/c I really do adore and respect Joe.
My greatest fear is that Joe’s handlers are doing now what Bernie’s handlers did in ‘16. If so, they should be… well… I should stop there.
Wise points JCOK and Craig Berrington.
I have a simple question - will your children and grandchildren vote for Biden or the other Democratic candidate if he is replaced? I think that the real issue is clearly voting for the Democrat no matter what whether then worrying about Biden's age.
More people will vote for a non-Biden option. See the internal Democratic polling from earlier this week. Of course I will be voting for Biden if he stays in the race! He is a great president, but millions of other Americans cannot be convinced.
Maybe because I tend to be rather analytical and not emotionally attached to political candidates, my motivation to vote for whoever heads the ticket is the same.
I’m right with you Thornton!
@Kathleen may your husband find strength in the battle for his life. I am holding space for you and your family. My father-in-law beat cancer in the last couple of years. I send you strength!
I am 75 and i have no problem at all with Joe. He works an incredibly difficult schedule and trying to campaign. If he had an off night, we all have an off night. Sure you slow down a bit as you age but Joe is so much better than any one else. And his age is asset because it means he is has the vast experience to govern in this challenging time. Joe has my support regardless of his age.
Your comment reads like a stealth anti-Biden, pro-Trump commenter.
I respectfully disagree. See my comment above. Kathleen’s sentiments are real. I’ve had the same discussions with my adult children and their friends. And every poll indicates a very strong negative dynamic for Biden in this regard. We have to be realistic. I hope to God Biden’s advisors are being realistic.
She means the top level comment, and I agree it smells like a troll account has infiltrated. It makes sense that Putin would pay for access to Simon’s community, given how strong and action-oriented we are. Whether he/it is a troll account or not, it’s clear a lot of people here think the content of its post is utter hogwash. As do I.
Biden already beat Trump once before in 2020 and will beat Trump again in 2024
Great summary of Biden’s achievements from Governor Gavin Newsom!
We have a huge challenge in this post-factual era, where perception to an alarming degree is divorced from reality. This is, of course, accentuated by the "bubbles of disinformation" created by certain news media where good news that could be credited to our president and Team Biden isn’t even published or broadcast – and if it is, is given a negative taint.
Good news from France! The Left and Macron’s center-right is uniting to try to prevent the extreme-right National Rally from gaining power. (They are doing so by the third-place polling candidate dropping out. That would be comparable to Jill Stein and Cornel West dropping out of the race and endorsing Biden. And perhaps even Nikki Haley doing the same!)An excellent op-ed by Rokhaya Diallo.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/05/france-election-democracy-unite-far-right-national-rally
It would be remiss to fail to point out that Labour’s landslide election victory in the UK comes with an important caveat that should not be ignored: angry Muslim constituents rose to help pro-Palestinian candidates defeat four Labour candidates, one of them prominent: Jonathan Ashworth, Shadow Cabinet Office minister.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/labour-loses-three-seats-to-pro-palestinian-candidates
I must say my resolve to "do more, worry less" is back, it was tested mightily yesterday, with reports of certain donors apparently announcing they'll halt donations until Biden steps down ! WTF?! Obviously I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is but let's not let Abigail Disney & other millionaires do the media's work nor decide who our nominee is! I seriously hope Joe does NOT give in !
Those "reports" are coming from Moscow.