Love seeing the new blue election show up in polling. The first thing I did this morning was call Senator Ossoff and Senator Warnock and gush all over them! Have a great week, y'all!
Last night my parents were at dinner with friends who were asking them how they planned to ensure the next 7 months of this presidential campaign. My mom tells me she replied " Actually, let me tell you about Hopium...."
An interesting note on the new Marist and NBC surveys: Biden actually does even better in the 5-way race in both polls. He's +5 (+7 w/ likely voters) in Marist and +2 in NBC.
I was honestly surprised that 6 of the 7 GOP reps in NC voted for the Ukrainian aid package. The lone hold out was Dan Bishop, who is super Maga and before the post-Census redistricting was my House Rep. My current rep, (D) Jeff Jackson has a military background and is definitely pro-Ukraine so there never a doubt.
I called my Senators this afternoon and left messages - I may try again in the morning to catch a live person. I'm pretty sure Sen. Tillis will support the bill but the Ted Budd is too MAGA for me to predict.
I love your optimism but am very concerned about voter suppression. Vigilante suppression is a real thing. Many potential democratic voters are being thrown off the rolls; many without their knowledge. What to do????
3 points: 1) we don't know how real any of this is. 2) If we win the election by 8-10 points none of it will matter. We just have to keep our heads down and doing the work. All we can do. 3) call your 2 Senators today and ask them to support Ukraine funding. Tomorrow too.
Marc Elias achieves more for democracy in the courtroom than perhaps anybody else. That is another important front in our fight to preserve and strengthen American democracy. His newsletter, Democracy Docket, has a wealth of information and is very much worth subscribing to. Here is his team’s informative website.
This is a group initially developed by Eric Holder and former Prez Obama to tackle voter suppression caused by state gerrymandering. It’s been extremely effective in leveling and correcting gerrymandering situations to such an extent that it’s been described as the “ cleanest, least gerrymandered” situation in decades. Lots of work still needed though. The Democracy Fund is another group working to fund leaders promoting democracy and protecting against voter suppression. Has donated about 250 million to causes and continues to donate. Agree with what Az wrote: Democracy Docket top notch.💃🏻
Kate, generally encourage people here to 1) bring data when they post, help others learn 2) not drop worry here. We do more, worry less. If you are worried about something bring a plan of action.
His name was the first name that came to mind when reading this, but I never know how serious a journalist he is; he is respected in some circles, not so much in others, and does makes some claims that seem hard to believe at first glance. I'm not seeing some of the other election experts get too worked up about this, so that tells me something. I see some numbers of LV voters with Biden over 50%. Joe Truppi, who is widely respected, thinks that is where this election is headed; Simon wants us to work toward 55. Still, Palast is an interesting guy and I heard his analysis of FL in 2000 recently and he is compelling, but as Simon has pointed out, each election is different; 2000 was a generation ago ( can you believe it? ).
Sorry, but Greg Palast is a hack. I have read two of his books, which are disappointingly lacking in concrete information such as names and dates, resources, references, footnotes etc etc. In other words: he fails to document his claims!
I am not saying Palast is completely wrong, but publishing such shoddy "research" is extremely unprofessional. Could be he has improved...?
Hi Kate, I do Vote Observing for the Dems each election. This is, at least in my state, something that we do way better at than them. Also in recent elections they have virtually no organization on. It is also something that is not as good of a fit for what they want it to be and what you are fearing it to be.
For the most part the Dems are better able to recruit Lawyers, Paralegals, and other Legal adjacent professionals to do this volunteer work, than the Republicans. It also appears we have a much more sophisticated training, reporting, and response than they do. There are set back requirements and it is easy for people who are designated Observers to lose the privilege. Interference, and intimidation is one of those things that quickly loses you the privilege.
In my experience they are usually able to have a few attorneys but split them among multiple locations were as we can usually have more volunteers in more locations. While it is possible they might conjure what you fear, but I am skeptical they are going to get it together at least this election.
There are groups that are using public records to reach out to voters proactively who were cut from the voter rolls. One that I know of is VoPro Pros (https://www.vopropros.com/contact) - I have done the voter protection hotline and ballot curing with this group in the past.
For sure, you should make sure everyone you know knows how to check their voter regisitration and does so well before the election. I know for sure that www.vote.org and www.vote411.org redirect you to the official website in each state to check your voter rehgistration. (In some states it is the Board of Elections and in others it is Sec. of State's office).
Another group to consider joining is VoteRiders (https://www.voteriders.org/) which helps voters get the IDs they need in order to vote in states with voter IDs. I have been adding a handwrittwn message to a state-specifc voter ID fact sheet and mailing them out to voters who might need help getting an ID. But they will also train you to help the voters who reach out for help - getting the documents (e.g., birth certificates etc.) that are required as well as arranging appointments,etc. Check out this "Tent Talk" from Big Tent USA for more info on VoteRiders
Not the top headline of the day, but Dems in Tennessee, despite being a super minority in the Legislature, were able to rally enough public support to kill an effort for the year by the extremist MAGA Governor & R Leadership in the State House & Senate to badly undermine public schools with an ugly voucher scheme. Team D is showing some grit and leveraging our grassroots organizational prowess to protect everything we can at every level of government in every corner of the country. I have a hunch that we will over-perform the polling again in the national popular vote and see a handful of surprise gains in unexpected places
Just called Senator Merkley and Senator Wyden. I also am active on a lot of pro-Ukranian message boards. I tell them what I'm doing, what all of us can do. I try to counteract all the negativity and worrying. We can do this. Sarcastic shout out to the Ayatollah for launching an attack that made this vote possible!!!
Iran’s tragedy (one of many) is that Khamenei, rather than the far-more-peaceful and moderate Hussein-Ali Montazeri, became the successor of Iran’s first so-called Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini.
An even better choice might have been Ali al-Sistani (born in Persia, now Iran), who has probably contributed more to conflict resolution in Iraq, where he resides, than anyone.
.
If only the CIA had not instigated a coup against Iran’s democratically-elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum...
Hi Britta, I subscribe to Jake Broe's YT channel. I read and post comments on the community tab. Jake is a former US Air Force Officer who makes three or four videos a week. I find him to be quite accurate. Another channel is Ukraine Matters on YT with a Latvian national named Georgji. He does a pretty good job at analyzing the information and livestreamed the CSPAN coverage from the House on Saturday. We had a YT party with many nations in the chat.
Simon, a puzzlement for me: why do any reputable pollsters still use RVs this close to an election? Wouldn’t LVs always be the best pool to fish in for accuracy 7 months away? Of course, it would depend on how rigorous is their metric for likely voting…do different pollsters use different ways to measure likely-ness?
I'm not Simon, but from what I understand, 7 months isn't really considered close to an election. Many people are not yet engaged - including lots of people who will end up voting.
. "Ukrainian Army Celebrates Major Victory Over Marjorie Taylor Greene"
.
"UKRAINE (The Borowitz Report)—After six months of what seemed at times an unwinnable battle, on Saturday the Ukrainian army scored a stunning victory over Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Jubilant Ukrainian soldiers cheered as news spread that their despised foe from Georgia’s 14th congressional district had been dealt a humiliating defeat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who greeted his front-line troops with a flurry of high fives, declared, “This is a war between freedom and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Ukraine chooses freedom.”
Answering a reporter’s question, Zelensky signaled that he might be open to direct talks with Greene, but added, “We would need an interpreter since only I speak English.”
On Sunday, Greene was still fuming about Ukraine’s win, telling Fox News, “I don’t see why Zelensky needs more weapons when he already has space lasers.”
I managed to get a live person for both Senators and my House rep, which is very rare. I thanked my Rep for voting for Ukraine and encouraged my Senators to not only support the bill but work with their Republican colleagues to make this a big bipartisan majority.
Simon FYI I gifted a subscription 2 my sister Sandra S. via the typical email route. She’ll set up her account later today. If there’s a preferred mechanism lmk in chat. 🤞it works. 🙏4 creating Hopium ~ Doing More ~ Worry Less🗽
Love seeing the new blue election show up in polling. The first thing I did this morning was call Senator Ossoff and Senator Warnock and gush all over them! Have a great week, y'all!
We'd better start working today on the next aid package for Ukraine.
Most important work on that front is winning this election, including holding the Senate and flipping the house
Last night my parents were at dinner with friends who were asking them how they planned to ensure the next 7 months of this presidential campaign. My mom tells me she replied " Actually, let me tell you about Hopium...."
love this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy to report my mom is now a paying subscriber as well!
Hopium, soon to be more pervasive than Fentanyl – and a helluva lot healthier!
An interesting note on the new Marist and NBC surveys: Biden actually does even better in the 5-way race in both polls. He's +5 (+7 w/ likely voters) in Marist and +2 in NBC.
Just called the offices of Senators Lujan and Heinrich to register my support. Probably not needed as they are likely to vote for the Ukraine aid.
All 3 of our US Representatives voted yes in the house!
I was honestly surprised that 6 of the 7 GOP reps in NC voted for the Ukrainian aid package. The lone hold out was Dan Bishop, who is super Maga and before the post-Census redistricting was my House Rep. My current rep, (D) Jeff Jackson has a military background and is definitely pro-Ukraine so there never a doubt.
I called my Senators this afternoon and left messages - I may try again in the morning to catch a live person. I'm pretty sure Sen. Tillis will support the bill but the Ted Budd is too MAGA for me to predict.
I love your optimism but am very concerned about voter suppression. Vigilante suppression is a real thing. Many potential democratic voters are being thrown off the rolls; many without their knowledge. What to do????
3 points: 1) we don't know how real any of this is. 2) If we win the election by 8-10 points none of it will matter. We just have to keep our heads down and doing the work. All we can do. 3) call your 2 Senators today and ask them to support Ukraine funding. Tomorrow too.
👍🏽❤️
I do believe Greg Palast has hard data on this issue frim several swing states
Ariz, spot on!
Marc Elias achieves more for democracy in the courtroom than perhaps anybody else. That is another important front in our fight to preserve and strengthen American democracy. His newsletter, Democracy Docket, has a wealth of information and is very much worth subscribing to. Here is his team’s informative website.
https://www.democracydocket.com/
I also like the YouTube Videos he and Brian Tyler Cohen do which can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOMpnzRkbFsi2yOiCKDN3fYgOzvrvfZm4
BTC "Tell No Lie" is great!
In addition to Democracy Docket,which is EXCELLENT, suggest you check out NRDC
(National Democratic Redistricting Committee)
https://democraticredistricting.com/
This is a group initially developed by Eric Holder and former Prez Obama to tackle voter suppression caused by state gerrymandering. It’s been extremely effective in leveling and correcting gerrymandering situations to such an extent that it’s been described as the “ cleanest, least gerrymandered” situation in decades. Lots of work still needed though. The Democracy Fund is another group working to fund leaders promoting democracy and protecting against voter suppression. Has donated about 250 million to causes and continues to donate. Agree with what Az wrote: Democracy Docket top notch.💃🏻
Kate, generally encourage people here to 1) bring data when they post, help others learn 2) not drop worry here. We do more, worry less. If you are worried about something bring a plan of action.
His name was the first name that came to mind when reading this, but I never know how serious a journalist he is; he is respected in some circles, not so much in others, and does makes some claims that seem hard to believe at first glance. I'm not seeing some of the other election experts get too worked up about this, so that tells me something. I see some numbers of LV voters with Biden over 50%. Joe Truppi, who is widely respected, thinks that is where this election is headed; Simon wants us to work toward 55. Still, Palast is an interesting guy and I heard his analysis of FL in 2000 recently and he is compelling, but as Simon has pointed out, each election is different; 2000 was a generation ago ( can you believe it? ).
Sorry, but Greg Palast is a hack. I have read two of his books, which are disappointingly lacking in concrete information such as names and dates, resources, references, footnotes etc etc. In other words: he fails to document his claims!
I am not saying Palast is completely wrong, but publishing such shoddy "research" is extremely unprofessional. Could be he has improved...?
This is the kind of thing I have heard, but he is a staff member at The Guardian, last I heard.
Really? I thought he had only delivered the occasional article to them – as a freelancer.
He said he is on the masthead when I heard him the other day. He could still just be a contributor.
Kate, two things we can do⬇️
-Encourage voters to check their registration status: https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration
-If they need help updating or obtaining an ID, refer therm to VoterRiders, a great org to amplify,donate,volunteer : https://www.voteriders.org/
Hi Kathy, I posted before I saw your post.
Hey Cheryl, Reinforcement of what we can do is a good thing! 😉
Hi Kate, I do Vote Observing for the Dems each election. This is, at least in my state, something that we do way better at than them. Also in recent elections they have virtually no organization on. It is also something that is not as good of a fit for what they want it to be and what you are fearing it to be.
For the most part the Dems are better able to recruit Lawyers, Paralegals, and other Legal adjacent professionals to do this volunteer work, than the Republicans. It also appears we have a much more sophisticated training, reporting, and response than they do. There are set back requirements and it is easy for people who are designated Observers to lose the privilege. Interference, and intimidation is one of those things that quickly loses you the privilege.
In my experience they are usually able to have a few attorneys but split them among multiple locations were as we can usually have more volunteers in more locations. While it is possible they might conjure what you fear, but I am skeptical they are going to get it together at least this election.
Here’s a link to a group who works year round to eliminate voter suppression. Check it out. https://www.vopropros.com/
Hi Colleen I posted before I saw your post.
I’m glad you had more to say about VoProPros. All good, Cheryl. 💙
There are groups that are using public records to reach out to voters proactively who were cut from the voter rolls. One that I know of is VoPro Pros (https://www.vopropros.com/contact) - I have done the voter protection hotline and ballot curing with this group in the past.
For sure, you should make sure everyone you know knows how to check their voter regisitration and does so well before the election. I know for sure that www.vote.org and www.vote411.org redirect you to the official website in each state to check your voter rehgistration. (In some states it is the Board of Elections and in others it is Sec. of State's office).
Another group to consider joining is VoteRiders (https://www.voteriders.org/) which helps voters get the IDs they need in order to vote in states with voter IDs. I have been adding a handwrittwn message to a state-specifc voter ID fact sheet and mailing them out to voters who might need help getting an ID. But they will also train you to help the voters who reach out for help - getting the documents (e.g., birth certificates etc.) that are required as well as arranging appointments,etc. Check out this "Tent Talk" from Big Tent USA for more info on VoteRiders
https://www.bigtentusa.org/event/kunis/
I called my Congressman to thank him, and then I called my Senators to encourage them.
I just called Hawley and Schmitt. I could only leave voicemail with Hawley’s office but was able to talk to a real person at Schmitt’s office!
🇺🇦💪💙
Not the top headline of the day, but Dems in Tennessee, despite being a super minority in the Legislature, were able to rally enough public support to kill an effort for the year by the extremist MAGA Governor & R Leadership in the State House & Senate to badly undermine public schools with an ugly voucher scheme. Team D is showing some grit and leveraging our grassroots organizational prowess to protect everything we can at every level of government in every corner of the country. I have a hunch that we will over-perform the polling again in the national popular vote and see a handful of surprise gains in unexpected places
https://x.com/tennessean/status/1782371301039931836?s=46
Go Team Democracy!! 😎🇺🇸🎹🎶🎤
I just called Senators Warren and Markey about the funding for Ukraine! Easy to do, thanks for the reminder!
Just called Senator Merkley and Senator Wyden. I also am active on a lot of pro-Ukranian message boards. I tell them what I'm doing, what all of us can do. I try to counteract all the negativity and worrying. We can do this. Sarcastic shout out to the Ayatollah for launching an attack that made this vote possible!!!
Iran’s tragedy (one of many) is that Khamenei, rather than the far-more-peaceful and moderate Hussein-Ali Montazeri, became the successor of Iran’s first so-called Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini.
An even better choice might have been Ali al-Sistani (born in Persia, now Iran), who has probably contributed more to conflict resolution in Iraq, where he resides, than anyone.
.
If only the CIA had not instigated a coup against Iran’s democratically-elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum...
May I ask which pro Ukrainian sites you mention? This effort is near and dear to my heart, and I’d like to be as involved as possible. 🙏🇺🇦
Hi Britta, I subscribe to Jake Broe's YT channel. I read and post comments on the community tab. Jake is a former US Air Force Officer who makes three or four videos a week. I find him to be quite accurate. Another channel is Ukraine Matters on YT with a Latvian national named Georgji. He does a pretty good job at analyzing the information and livestreamed the CSPAN coverage from the House on Saturday. We had a YT party with many nations in the chat.
Called Beavis (Tillis) and Butthead (Budd) at their DC offices and NC offices.
Simon, a puzzlement for me: why do any reputable pollsters still use RVs this close to an election? Wouldn’t LVs always be the best pool to fish in for accuracy 7 months away? Of course, it would depend on how rigorous is their metric for likely voting…do different pollsters use different ways to measure likely-ness?
"..this close to an election"
I'm not Simon, but from what I understand, 7 months isn't really considered close to an election. Many people are not yet engaged - including lots of people who will end up voting.
The Borowitz Report nails it:
. "Ukrainian Army Celebrates Major Victory Over Marjorie Taylor Greene"
.
"UKRAINE (The Borowitz Report)—After six months of what seemed at times an unwinnable battle, on Saturday the Ukrainian army scored a stunning victory over Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Jubilant Ukrainian soldiers cheered as news spread that their despised foe from Georgia’s 14th congressional district had been dealt a humiliating defeat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who greeted his front-line troops with a flurry of high fives, declared, “This is a war between freedom and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Ukraine chooses freedom.”
Answering a reporter’s question, Zelensky signaled that he might be open to direct talks with Greene, but added, “We would need an interpreter since only I speak English.”
On Sunday, Greene was still fuming about Ukraine’s win, telling Fox News, “I don’t see why Zelensky needs more weapons when he already has space lasers.”
.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/ukrainian-army-celebrates-major-victory
(Andy Borowitz, previously of The New Yorker, really is worth a subscription – free or paid.)
.
that's funny
I managed to get a live person for both Senators and my House rep, which is very rare. I thanked my Rep for voting for Ukraine and encouraged my Senators to not only support the bill but work with their Republican colleagues to make this a big bipartisan majority.
Simon FYI I gifted a subscription 2 my sister Sandra S. via the typical email route. She’ll set up her account later today. If there’s a preferred mechanism lmk in chat. 🤞it works. 🙏4 creating Hopium ~ Doing More ~ Worry Less🗽