You are not the only one saying this tonight. It's all over the place. First I had to suffer through the US being humiliated at home by Panama in the Copa America, and now this. I don't have an answer, but awhile back Joe Trippi was saying Biden should not debate trump at all. Someone should have listened.
I was replying to MC who is posting repeatable botlike phrases (see below). I wasn't responding to you. Look at the thread mark. Also, not everyone on the internet has the luxury of putting their entire bio. If I was a bot, my syntax would be different. Finally, aren't we here to help Joe Biden win? If you want a different candidate there's a lot of other places to go to complain. Here we do more, worry less. Biden had a cold, he got his stride and got zingers in, and I remember when debate moderators (just four years ago) would call out Trump's lies. Bash and Tapper failed. They were clearly afraid. Our media is not doing its job if it won't state facts without fear or favor.
I am not an "inauthentic account" just got having the same opinion that 90% of liberal commentators had. Van Jones was tearing up, literally starting to cry. Is he also "fake"?
Finally, I only joined Substack after I saw Simon's piece / interview in the NYT (I think). My lack of bio or other self-aggrandizing social media stuff is hardly evidence of my inauthenticity.
We are not on a shopping spree. The next four years will be pivotal in the fight to save our Democracy. There is no other candidate who understands our government and how it works better than Joe Biden, which is why he has been able to get so much done. His vision of/for our Country preserves and protects our freedom. We need him. The World needs him!
Thanks, Joe! Really appreciate the reality check. I know Simon is right--we need to shut out the noise. But some of this stuff is just crazy-making, and it helps to hear this kind of smart analysis.
I took this one down after looking into it more - NYT uses the U/S/R from their own exit poll (actually, it's AP/NORC's exit poll) which has some methodological difference with the Nielsen exit poll I was using. By their exit poll, they are correct.
So the more likely culprit here is more mundane: Biden was up 9 with Independents in Fox, 1 with them in CBS, and down 7 with them here. QU had him up 7 in March, down 3 in May, and down 10 now. I can't see any reason why Biden would lose 17 points with Independents since March (a period in which he has been rising in the average), and CBS had him tied in April and leading in June, while Fox had an 11 point Independent swing to Biden since May.
Bottom line: Independents are pretty scattershot, and it moves polls a lot.
Why do I need to comment on it? You have lots of material in the post, relevant to today, to chew on, wrestle with, focus on. Not wasting my time today of all days with the noise, and either should any of you. Heads down, lots of work to do.
It’s worth re-watching Biden’s demolition of Paul Ryan in the 2012 VP debate. Joe Biden can be devastating! And he hasn’t lost his touch. I fondly remember his last two State of the Union speeches.
Stuart Stevens was talking about this today; he said Biden just demolished him. He never really recovered IMO. Stuart was hoping Ryan would get to talk about policy, but Biden didn't really let him. My only take on that is, when dealing with former R's at place like the LP, remember they still think their policies ( privatize SS, Medicare, the VA, bust unions, privatize public schools and so on ) are somehow better for Americans. Never forget that. Now is the time to disabuse some of them of those notions; Stevens himself ( and I may be spelling his name wrong ) says he never really paid that much attention to policy, he just wanted his man to win. trump changed that for him.
Respectfully, I disagree. Biden is a way better politician than a someone "hobbled by comity". He wins elections, forms coalitions and gets meaningful legislation passed. Biden won 6 straight terms in the Senate, and was elected on three winning Presidential tickets as VP and P. I expect him to chip away at MAGA lies tonight and keep chipping away throughout this election cycle. I am fully confident he'll win again.
I hope you see Jessica Pipers talk at the Tyson's Corner Woman's Summit, this is an expert from her Substack, after speaking up with a group of "fired up & ready to go" Dems in rural Missouri:
"After I spoke, there was a little line that formed to talk more. Most of the folks in the room were my parents' age, and most were worried about what their children and grandchildren will deal with in this red state — several more spoke under their breath about what a Trump presidency will do to our country.
They talked about our schools and the bad roads and the long trips for medical care and the fact that the Republicans running this state have been a supermajority for over 20 years, but blame our shortcomings on “radical liberals.” One woman thanked me for coming and pressed a five dollar bill into my hand to help with gas. When I tell you that happens at almost every event, I hope you believe me. Bless the grandmas.
These are the rooms where it happens. These are the rooms where someone gets fed up with not having a candidate to vote for and says “To hell with it…I’ll do it.” These are the rooms where organizers like Mike prod their neighbors to not give up and push back on GOP rhetoric and lawmakers. To give to nominees. To do something. Anything.
The sad thing is that many blue-state Democrats don’t know these rooms exist. Most political consultants don’t care that they exist."
Thank you Howard! I’m a Blue Democrat in red Missouri. I didn’t know about Jessica even though I’m connected to my local Democrat party in Boone County. I found, and am now following, Jessica’s Substack.
Wow! Thanks for letting me know. There really is hope in Missouri! Jessica (and Lucas Kunce) is the best thing to happen in MO since Truman, she is a plain speaker like ol 'Harry. Boone County has historically often made the difference for Dems in MO.
Simon -- Re the U.S. economy being the envy of the world, FYI these articles from the last 2 weeks:
1) The U.S. economy is the most dynamic it’s ever been as AI and infrastructure overpower Fed rate hikes, ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman says--Fortune June 16
I look forward to President Joe Biden delivering some real zingers. Here are some suggestions:
– "It’s time to admit it, Donald: You’re a loser!"
– "Performance-enhancing drugs? Get real, man! Truth is, I just ate some ice cream."
– "I understand you’re angry about it. A lot of convicted felons stay angry about getting caught, arrested, tried and convicted. Good luck with your sentencing."
– "You’re still in denial, Donald. I beat you in 2020. I defeated you by 8 million votes, and everybody knows it."
– "The claim that you won is laughable. Look, you lost over 60 court cases, many of them dismissed by judges you appointed, because you never had any evidence. None. I suppose the evidence was on Hunter’s laptop and in Hillary’s emails?"
– "Why did you remain silent for 187 minutes – over three hours! – while a mob of insurrectionists that had attended your rally, and who were incited by your words, were viciously attacking police officers, calling for Vice President Mike Pence to be hanged, and forcing their way into the Capitol? You owe the American people an apology and an explanation."
– "You’re not a great businessman, Donald. That’s a myth. You went bankrupt six times. America cannot afford to have you in charge of our economy again. One-quarter of our national debt happened on your watch!"
– "Is he OK over there? Do we need a wellness check?"
– "And now you want to pardon them? Seriously?? They’re traitors who tried to overthrow our democracy. They’re convicted felons, Donald, just like you."
.
"Good evening. I'd like to thank the debate commission, the moderators, CNN, everyone watching at home, and especially, my opponent's parole officer, for allowing him to leave the state."
– from Greg Olear, courtesy of Simon’s Xitter feed
On the agenda for me today is my weekly DNC veterans' group. We are starting a Florida variation. If interested email Judge Tom Snook uscga67@gmail.com
Later FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 edt.
Next, Big Tent has a zoom program with Congressman Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Caroline Fredrickson, Senior Fellow at The Brennan Center for Justice, this Thursday, June 27th at 7:45PM ET. https://www.bigtentusa.org/
What’s the polite way to address a Nazi, fascist, racist, rapist, criminal, insurrectionist traitor in a debate? “I’m sorry, I don’t speak white trash.”
I am hopeful and optimistic that Biden will wipe the floor with Trump tonight, but articles like this one scare me. How can TLG be so far ahead in so many swing states?
I was driving down Lincoln Drive near 24th St. yesterday (in Paradise Valley, AZ) and the political signs were everywhere… with Andre’s just one among many, many Republicans. Schweichert’s nauseating photo with his disingenuous smile (and wife and children? grandchildren?) after he has had ethics violations makes me sick. I am really surprised to hear that district is 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 but that is great to hear. I thought it was solidly Red. Anyway, I would definitely write postcards for Andre. Let me know who I should talk to! I’m a PC in LD12.
Simon, please comment on the Nate Silver poll which gives Trump a 66% chance to win! I am panicked. I had to immediately come back to Hopium to stay sane! Carol - Dallas
I comment on polls and data every day. I present to you what is most important. I cannot possibly analyze or comment on everything that is written every day. Not what we do here.
In this forecast Biden leads in states getting to 270 and wins the election.
Much is going to change in the weeks ahead. We are still very early in this election. Don't worry about all these polling averages. It's a close election. We can and should win if we do the work.
Carol, in 2022 the pollsters that made up 538’s aggregate had a margin of error of 4.8%. On average since 1998, it’s been 6%.
Outside of states with mostly known outcomes (NY, CA, AL, etc.) the margin of victory for swing states is well within that margin of error.
So how predictive are polls for the race to 270? Not super accurate. They simply do not have predictive power that should inspire any certainty. This isn’t a horse race, we can’t reliably measure who is ahead or not (especially when the difference is inside the margin of error).
What we can do is analyze trends over time to see how news is being received (e.g. bump in Biden numbers reported by the same poll after Trump conviction)
The takeaway is that at the moment, this election is close.
Also, poll averages include a lot of low-quality polls and bad-faith polls. The simple fact is that quite a few pollsters are in the business of *influencing the news narrative*, rather than trying to accurately measure voter sentiment. And polling is a shockingly cost-effective way to influence the narrative!
538’s forecast, to which Simon refers, is preferable to other polling averages, because they give greater weight to higher-quality polls from credible pollsters.
Well, I'm usually pretty good - not great but pretty good - at maintaining optimism. But this was hard to see. I did a little digging, and found that 538, the polling outfit that Silver started and recently left, is calling the race "pure toss up." Also, Silver had R's slightly favored to win the Senate in 22 midterms. So, he's to be taken with some grains of salt, and not as an omniscient wizard.
Horrible. Time to move on to a new candidate. I've really been liking Gavin Newsome.
Again, nonsense and the sort of thing I hear from inauthentic accounts.
You are not the only one saying this tonight. It's all over the place. First I had to suffer through the US being humiliated at home by Panama in the Copa America, and now this. I don't have an answer, but awhile back Joe Trippi was saying Biden should not debate trump at all. Someone should have listened.
You're just wrong, see my response
I was replying to MC who is posting repeatable botlike phrases (see below). I wasn't responding to you. Look at the thread mark. Also, not everyone on the internet has the luxury of putting their entire bio. If I was a bot, my syntax would be different. Finally, aren't we here to help Joe Biden win? If you want a different candidate there's a lot of other places to go to complain. Here we do more, worry less. Biden had a cold, he got his stride and got zingers in, and I remember when debate moderators (just four years ago) would call out Trump's lies. Bash and Tapper failed. They were clearly afraid. Our media is not doing its job if it won't state facts without fear or favor.
You are an idiot, I just responded to you
I am not an "inauthentic account" just got having the same opinion that 90% of liberal commentators had. Van Jones was tearing up, literally starting to cry. Is he also "fake"?
Just "for" having sorry for typo. Again...not a bot. Grow up.
Finally, I only joined Substack after I saw Simon's piece / interview in the NYT (I think). My lack of bio or other self-aggrandizing social media stuff is hardly evidence of my inauthenticity.
We are not on a shopping spree. The next four years will be pivotal in the fight to save our Democracy. There is no other candidate who understands our government and how it works better than Joe Biden, which is why he has been able to get so much done. His vision of/for our Country preserves and protects our freedom. We need him. The World needs him!
Thanks, Joe! Really appreciate the reality check. I know Simon is right--we need to shut out the noise. But some of this stuff is just crazy-making, and it helps to hear this kind of smart analysis.
Thank you!
I took this one down after looking into it more - NYT uses the U/S/R from their own exit poll (actually, it's AP/NORC's exit poll) which has some methodological difference with the Nielsen exit poll I was using. By their exit poll, they are correct.
So the more likely culprit here is more mundane: Biden was up 9 with Independents in Fox, 1 with them in CBS, and down 7 with them here. QU had him up 7 in March, down 3 in May, and down 10 now. I can't see any reason why Biden would lose 17 points with Independents since March (a period in which he has been rising in the average), and CBS had him tied in April and leading in June, while Fox had an 11 point Independent swing to Biden since May.
Bottom line: Independents are pretty scattershot, and it moves polls a lot.
Why do I need to comment on it? You have lots of material in the post, relevant to today, to chew on, wrestle with, focus on. Not wasting my time today of all days with the noise, and either should any of you. Heads down, lots of work to do.
Evidence?
We need Hopium T shirts!
Buttons fundraiser or hats
Sadly Biden is hobbled by decades of "comity". I hope he will go on offense but I would be surprised if he does.
It’s worth re-watching Biden’s demolition of Paul Ryan in the 2012 VP debate. Joe Biden can be devastating! And he hasn’t lost his touch. I fondly remember his last two State of the Union speeches.
Stuart Stevens was talking about this today; he said Biden just demolished him. He never really recovered IMO. Stuart was hoping Ryan would get to talk about policy, but Biden didn't really let him. My only take on that is, when dealing with former R's at place like the LP, remember they still think their policies ( privatize SS, Medicare, the VA, bust unions, privatize public schools and so on ) are somehow better for Americans. Never forget that. Now is the time to disabuse some of them of those notions; Stevens himself ( and I may be spelling his name wrong ) says he never really paid that much attention to policy, he just wanted his man to win. trump changed that for him.
Respectfully, I disagree. Biden is a way better politician than a someone "hobbled by comity". He wins elections, forms coalitions and gets meaningful legislation passed. Biden won 6 straight terms in the Senate, and was elected on three winning Presidential tickets as VP and P. I expect him to chip away at MAGA lies tonight and keep chipping away throughout this election cycle. I am fully confident he'll win again.
I've considered that. I agree he will win.
I hope you see Jessica Pipers talk at the Tyson's Corner Woman's Summit, this is an expert from her Substack, after speaking up with a group of "fired up & ready to go" Dems in rural Missouri:
"After I spoke, there was a little line that formed to talk more. Most of the folks in the room were my parents' age, and most were worried about what their children and grandchildren will deal with in this red state — several more spoke under their breath about what a Trump presidency will do to our country.
They talked about our schools and the bad roads and the long trips for medical care and the fact that the Republicans running this state have been a supermajority for over 20 years, but blame our shortcomings on “radical liberals.” One woman thanked me for coming and pressed a five dollar bill into my hand to help with gas. When I tell you that happens at almost every event, I hope you believe me. Bless the grandmas.
These are the rooms where it happens. These are the rooms where someone gets fed up with not having a candidate to vote for and says “To hell with it…I’ll do it.” These are the rooms where organizers like Mike prod their neighbors to not give up and push back on GOP rhetoric and lawmakers. To give to nominees. To do something. Anything.
The sad thing is that many blue-state Democrats don’t know these rooms exist. Most political consultants don’t care that they exist."
Thank you Howard! I’m a Blue Democrat in red Missouri. I didn’t know about Jessica even though I’m connected to my local Democrat party in Boone County. I found, and am now following, Jessica’s Substack.
Wow! Thanks for letting me know. There really is hope in Missouri! Jessica (and Lucas Kunce) is the best thing to happen in MO since Truman, she is a plain speaker like ol 'Harry. Boone County has historically often made the difference for Dems in MO.
Simon -- Re the U.S. economy being the envy of the world, FYI these articles from the last 2 weeks:
1) The U.S. economy is the most dynamic it’s ever been as AI and infrastructure overpower Fed rate hikes, ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman says--Fortune June 16
https://fortune.com/2024/06/16/us-economy-most-dynamic-ever-ai-infrastructure-apple-big-short-steve-eisman/
2) America seems immune to the world economy’s problems--The Economist June 12
https://econ.st/3xJfsdF and https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/12/america-seems-immune-to-the-world-economys-problems
3) World Bank: ‘Impressive’ US economy is powering the world--The Hill June 11
https://thehill.com/business/4715951-world-bank-impressive-us-economy-is-powering-the-world/
I look forward to President Joe Biden delivering some real zingers. Here are some suggestions:
– "It’s time to admit it, Donald: You’re a loser!"
– "Performance-enhancing drugs? Get real, man! Truth is, I just ate some ice cream."
– "I understand you’re angry about it. A lot of convicted felons stay angry about getting caught, arrested, tried and convicted. Good luck with your sentencing."
– "You’re still in denial, Donald. I beat you in 2020. I defeated you by 8 million votes, and everybody knows it."
– "The claim that you won is laughable. Look, you lost over 60 court cases, many of them dismissed by judges you appointed, because you never had any evidence. None. I suppose the evidence was on Hunter’s laptop and in Hillary’s emails?"
– "Why did you remain silent for 187 minutes – over three hours! – while a mob of insurrectionists that had attended your rally, and who were incited by your words, were viciously attacking police officers, calling for Vice President Mike Pence to be hanged, and forcing their way into the Capitol? You owe the American people an apology and an explanation."
– "You’re not a great businessman, Donald. That’s a myth. You went bankrupt six times. America cannot afford to have you in charge of our economy again. One-quarter of our national debt happened on your watch!"
– "Is he OK over there? Do we need a wellness check?"
US need a full neurological eval. STAT.
RETORT/addendum
– "And now you want to pardon them? Seriously?? They’re traitors who tried to overthrow our democracy. They’re convicted felons, Donald, just like you."
.
"Good evening. I'd like to thank the debate commission, the moderators, CNN, everyone watching at home, and especially, my opponent's parole officer, for allowing him to leave the state."
– from Greg Olear, courtesy of Simon’s Xitter feed
😂😂😂😂😂👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
On the agenda for me today is my weekly DNC veterans' group. We are starting a Florida variation. If interested email Judge Tom Snook uscga67@gmail.com
Later FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 edt.
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/632594/
Next, Big Tent has a zoom program with Congressman Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and Caroline Fredrickson, Senior Fellow at The Brennan Center for Justice, this Thursday, June 27th at 7:45PM ET. https://www.bigtentusa.org/
Debate day. LFG.
What’s the polite way to address a Nazi, fascist, racist, rapist, criminal, insurrectionist traitor in a debate? “I’m sorry, I don’t speak white trash.”
I am hopeful and optimistic that Biden will wipe the floor with Trump tonight, but articles like this one scare me. How can TLG be so far ahead in so many swing states?
https://wapo.st/4eCscDH
I was driving down Lincoln Drive near 24th St. yesterday (in Paradise Valley, AZ) and the political signs were everywhere… with Andre’s just one among many, many Republicans. Schweichert’s nauseating photo with his disingenuous smile (and wife and children? grandchildren?) after he has had ethics violations makes me sick. I am really surprised to hear that district is 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 but that is great to hear. I thought it was solidly Red. Anyway, I would definitely write postcards for Andre. Let me know who I should talk to! I’m a PC in LD12.
(Sorry, Andrei, not Andre)
Hi Suzanne, thanks for being willing to help. I sent you a private message but if you don't see those would you email us at info@andreiforarizona.com?
Simon, please comment on the Nate Silver poll which gives Trump a 66% chance to win! I am panicked. I had to immediately come back to Hopium to stay sane! Carol - Dallas
I comment on polls and data every day. I present to you what is most important. I cannot possibly analyze or comment on everything that is written every day. Not what we do here.
Here's the 538 forecast - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
In this forecast Biden leads in states getting to 270 and wins the election.
Much is going to change in the weeks ahead. We are still very early in this election. Don't worry about all these polling averages. It's a close election. We can and should win if we do the work.
Carol, in 2022 the pollsters that made up 538’s aggregate had a margin of error of 4.8%. On average since 1998, it’s been 6%.
Outside of states with mostly known outcomes (NY, CA, AL, etc.) the margin of victory for swing states is well within that margin of error.
So how predictive are polls for the race to 270? Not super accurate. They simply do not have predictive power that should inspire any certainty. This isn’t a horse race, we can’t reliably measure who is ahead or not (especially when the difference is inside the margin of error).
What we can do is analyze trends over time to see how news is being received (e.g. bump in Biden numbers reported by the same poll after Trump conviction)
The takeaway is that at the moment, this election is close.
Also, poll averages include a lot of low-quality polls and bad-faith polls. The simple fact is that quite a few pollsters are in the business of *influencing the news narrative*, rather than trying to accurately measure voter sentiment. And polling is a shockingly cost-effective way to influence the narrative!
538’s forecast, to which Simon refers, is preferable to other polling averages, because they give greater weight to higher-quality polls from credible pollsters.
Well, I'm usually pretty good - not great but pretty good - at maintaining optimism. But this was hard to see. I did a little digging, and found that 538, the polling outfit that Silver started and recently left, is calling the race "pure toss up." Also, Silver had R's slightly favored to win the Senate in 22 midterms. So, he's to be taken with some grains of salt, and not as an omniscient wizard.
He also gave Hillary a 66% chance to win in 2016, he's not infallible.
Nate Silver should stick to poker.
How much of a threat is third party candidates to Biden's re-election?