Morning all. Join my live conversation with Glenn Kirschner at 2pm EST today by clicking here. A recording will be sent to everyone later this afternoon if you can’t join us live. Glenn is terrific, and this will be a timely and informative events.
Let’s start with a reminder that in the CNN poll we discussed last week 58% of American adults think the first year of Trump’s term has been a failure. A year in Trump’s approval rating has stabilized in an ugly place for him and 2026 Republicans:
Navigator has some new data showing how unhappy voters are with Trump:
Would this week’s polls show a rejection of Trump’s dramatic and dangerous escalation in recent days? This morning’s Economist/YouGov tracking poll suggests yes, as this is his worst poll in this series this year. His job approval is 37%-57% (-20), 6 points worse than last week’s results. Ugly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Next up is a clip of Governor Gavin Newsom in Davos, Switzerland in what’s become an important, even historic moment, in the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. Our friend Gavin just lays it out there, powerfully. Watch it above, and let’s read a rough transcript, together:
The Europeans should decide for themselves what to do.
But one thing they can’t do is what they’ve been doing.
And they’ve been playing. This guy is playing folks for fools.
And it’s embarrassing.
Europeans think this is diplomacy and this will ultimately work.
Oh, this is diplomacy with Donald Trump?
He’s a T-Rex.
You mate with him or he devours you.
One or the other.
No, Europeans could be if they continue to look down this path, the process.
They need to stand tall, stand firm, stand united.
A year ago we should have been having this conversation and they didn’t.
And now you’re paying the price.
Exactly what anyone, object observer, would have anticipated we’d be where we are, didn’t it?
Question - What do you think, sir?
Well, I don’t want to be hyperbolic about it, but this guy’s a wrecking ball.
I hope people are waking up to what we’re dealing with.
This is code red. I mean, you guys are still playing by an old set of rules.
Everybody in the globe is with this guy.
He’s unmoored.
It’s the law of the jungle.
It’s the rule of Don.
And I hope it’s dawning on the world, what we’re up against.
I mean, this is serious.
This guy, he’s not mad.
He’s very intentional.
But he’s unmoored.
And he’s unhinged.
The goal is whatever he wants it to be.
The goal is the world in his image.
He’s a narcissist.
I mean, it’s just, it’s no advice.
Common sense.
Why don’t folks do what they say publicly, what they’re saying in private?
Why don’t they just simply do what they know is right?
I mean, everybody’s talking behind his back. They’re laughing.
And meanwhile, they’re sucking up to him.
It’s embarrassing.
I mean, this is your modeling behavior for our kids, generations of folks.
This is not diplomacy.
This is stupidity.
Yesterday, at Davos, The President of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, gave an extraordinary speech essentially declaring independence from the United States and the end of the 80 year old Western alliance:
Here are a few of the opening graphs of the speech:
The world may be very different today, without any question. But I believe the lesson is very much the same. That geopolitical shocks can – and must – serve as an opportunity for Europe. In my view, the seismic change we are going through today is an opportunity, in fact, a necessity to build a new form of European independence. This need is neither new nor a reaction to recent events. It has been a structural imperative for far longer. So when I used this term – European independence – around a year ago, I was surprised at the sceptical reactions. But less than one year on, there is now a real consensus around this. The sheer speed and almost unthinkable scale of the change have driven this – but the underlying imperative is still the same.
The good news is: We acted immediately. Whether on energy or raw materials, defence or digital – we are moving fast. But the truth is also that we will only be able to capitalise on this opportunity if we recognise that this change is permanent. Of course, nostalgia is part of our human story. But nostalgia will not bring back the old order. And playing for time – and hoping for things to revert soon – will not fix the structural dependencies we have. So my point is: If this change is permanent, then Europe must change permanently too. It is time to seize this opportunity and build a new independent Europe.
Here’s Danish Parliament Deputy Speaker Lars-Christian Brask yesterday:
"If I could come with some advice, it would be for the Senate & House to start to take control of political power in America because with this erratic & mad behaviour, you have to ask the question, is the President capable of running the US?"
Here’s the great Anne Applebaum today from a new essay, Trump’s Letter To Norway Should Be The Last Straw: Will Republicans In Congress Ever Step In? (gift link):
“Let me begin by quoting, in full, a letter that the president of the United States of America sent yesterday to the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre. The text was forwarded by the White House National Security Council to ambassadors in Washington, and was clearly intended to be widely shared. Here it is:
Dear Jonas:
Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only a boat that landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT
One could observe many things about this document. One is the childish grammar, including the strange capitalizations (“Complete and Total Control”). Another is the loose grasp of history. Donald Trump did not end eight wars. Greenland has been Danish territory for centuries. Its residents are Danish citizens who vote in Danish elections. There are many “written documents” establishing Danish sovereignty in Greenland, including some signed by the United States. In his second term, Trump has done nothing for NATO—an organization that the U.S. created and theoretically leads, and that has only ever been used in defense of American interests. If the European members of NATO have begun spending more on their own defense (budgets to which the U.S. never contributed), that’s because of the threat they feel from Russia.
Yet what matters isn’t the specific phrases, but the overall message: Donald Trump now genuinely lives in a different reality, one in which neither grammar nor history nor the normal rules of human interaction now affect him. Also, he really is maniacally, unhealthily obsessive about the Nobel Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, not the Norwegian government and certainly not the Danish government, determines the winner of that prize. Yet Trump now not only blames Norway for failing to give it to him, but is using it as a justification for an invasion of Greenland.
Think about where this is leading. One possibility, anticipated this morning by financial markets, is a damaging trade war. Another is an American military occupation of Greenland. Try to imagine it: The U.S. Marines arrive in Nuuk, the island’s capital. Perhaps they kill some Danes; perhaps some American soldiers die too. And then what? If the invaders were Russians, they would arrest all of the politicians, put gangsters in charge, shoot people on the street for speaking Danish, change school curricula, and carry out a fake referendum to rubber-stamp the conquest. Is that the American plan too? If not, then what is it? This would not be the occupation of Iraq, which was difficult enough. U.S. troops would need to force Greenlanders, citizens of a treaty ally, to become American against their will.
For the past year, American allies around the world have tried very hard to find a theory that explains Trump’s behavior. Isolationism, neo-imperialism, and patrimonialism are all words that have been thrown around. But in the end, the president himself defeats all attempts to describe a “Trump doctrine.” He is locked into a world of his own, determined to “win” every encounter, whether in an imaginary competition for the Nobel Peace Prize or a protest from the mother of small children objecting to his masked, armed paramilitary in Minneapolis. These contests matter more to him than any long-term strategy. And of course, the need to appear victorious matters much more than Americans’ prosperity and well-being.”
So what do we do? It’s time now for Democrats to offer a unified national front - Govs, Congress, Big City Mayors, whatever Rs want to join along - to fight for these two things we’ve been talking about:
Rule of law must be re-established in America, ICE must be reined in, and Trump’s outrageous plunder and corruption must end
That he must back off his illegal and destructive territorial ambitions, end all these ridiculous tariffs, and re-commit to the Trans-Atlantic Alliance
There can be no question in the minds of Americans, or the free people of the world, where we stand on these matters. The world is watching, and we must follow the counsel of the Gavin Newsom above and these words from EU President von der Leyen:
But the truth is also that we will only be able to capitalise on this opportunity if we recognise that this change is permanent. Of course, nostalgia is part of our human story. But nostalgia will not bring back the old order. And playing for time – and hoping for things to revert soon – will not fix the structural dependencies we have. So my point is: If this change is permanent, then Europe must change permanently too. It is time to seize this opportunity and build a new independent Europe.
It is time to seize this opportunity, fellow Democrats, and build a far more powerful and effective opposition, one that works tirelessly to counter Trump and bring about a new birth of freedom in the years ahead, here and everywhere.
We need to be very loud today people. Congress needs to hear from us today. All of us, loudly. Now…..
Let’s Get To Work!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks to everyone who contributed our campaign for the Minnesota DFL. We’ve exceeded our goal and have raised $67,000! Thank you all.
Now that we’ve hit our goal we are once again prioritizing our current working line-up:
Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $80,000 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $19,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!
Winning Ohio - $16,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $67k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper and a new, terrific one with NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $114k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $279,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties
Why We Must Invest Early, Now, And Not Wait - In three new essays (here, here, here) I discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.
The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.
Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy
We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his new threats to seize Greenland and his new dangerous European tariffs;
Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law, and the US must withdraw from Venezuela and cease other threats to violate the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other nations
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse the cuts to the wealthy and corporations
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the dangerous occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented regime corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress end the rancid cover up of the Epstein crimes.
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor the Stand Up For Science/Rep. Haley Stevens effort to remove Robert Kennedy from HHS.
2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - This July 4th America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.
One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:
But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Keep working hard everyone, and I remain so incredibly proud to be in this righteous fight with all of you - Simon
