Morning all. I got to together with our our proud, plucky and patriotic paid subscribers last night for one of our regular gatherings. We had a good crowd and I offered some thoughts on where we are and took questions for the rest of the hour. A recording and transcript are above. Get to it when you can.
He are some of the main points from my talk last night….
The Senate tariff vote failed last night, 49-49 - We came up one vote short. 3 Rs crossed over - Collins, Murkowski, Paul - and McConnell and Whitehouse (D) were not present. I will be getting a download from Senate folks later today and will report back in with more tomorrow. A huge thank you to all of you who worked this vote. We almost got there everyone, and it was a fight worth having. If Rs are going to wreck our economy and hand Trump powers the Constitution does not provide him, we have to make it hard for them to do so. Last night we got 49 Senate Republicans on the record defending these ridiculous tariffs and made them work very hard to not embarrass their ridiculous leader.
While I am still encouraging those of you in the 37 states that not have signed on to the two main law suits challenging the tariffs to keep calling state officials, at the Congressional level we will now be shifting our focus towards killing the plutocratic, US-bankrupting, health care-gutting reconciliation bill.
In what can only be described as a wild story this morning, Politico is reporting that a weakened and struggling Trump is getting wobbly on the central cuts in the current budget framework, the cutting of almost $1 trillion out of Medicaid:
President Donald Trump is skeptical of congressional Republicans’ emerging plans to make deep cuts to Medicaid, the safety-net health program covering nearly 80 million Americans, six people close to the president said.
Speaker Mike Johnson and other House leaders are zeroing in on a framework that would roll back part of the Medicaid expansion enacted under President Barack Obama, generating hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to help pay for the rest of Trump’s legislative agenda — including sweeping tax cuts plus border security and defense spending.
But while Trump has agreed to target waste, fraud and abuse, he remains profoundly wary about pursuing anything that might be construed as “cuts” to a program he has vowed over and over again to protect, according to six White House officials and top allies of the president. Having experienced the political backlash that followed his failed 2017 effort to undo other parts of the Affordable Care Act, he has told associates in multiple recent meetings he’s uncomfortable with some of the ideas being bandied around on the Hill.
“Trump is definitely not convinced on reductions in Medicaid spending,” said one outside adviser granted anonymity to discuss the high-level deliberations. “His own instincts are that politically it’s not good, and Trump’s political instincts are pretty good.”
The conflict is set to come to a head when senior House Republicans in the coming days are expected to present him with a menu of potential Medicaid changes they’d like to pursue and estimates of the savings they will generate and the impacts on beneficiaries. It will be up to Trump to decide what is palatable.
For time and space reasons I won’t be able to provide a full explanation of how bat-shit crazy this all is, but of course this delusional madman “running” the country is all in on giving people free money through massive tax cuts but is buckling, in his deeply weakened political state, at doing anything that may piss voters off.
Here is how the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget described the budget framework adopted by the Senate and House with the big Medicaid cuts included:
the proposed concurrent Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution would allow policymakers to add $5.8 trillion to primary deficits through 2034 via a reconciliation package. Such a bill would be historically unprecedented in its fiscal irresponsibility, adding several times more debt than any reconciliation package or other recent piece of legislation.
Here is a helpful chart from that analysis (The House adopted the Senate framework) with the large Medicaid cuts included. Without them, we are looking at what can only be described as a bill designed to bankrupt the US government and end America’s global economic leadership. The tariffs are bad. This bill may be worse.
A central dynamic of this moment is how Trump’s delusions and extremism, baked over 4 years of just throwing wild shit out there on the campaign trail (his promises) are crashing hard, very hard, into reality. Yesterday we discussed his jawdropping lunacy in the ABC News interview - prices are falling, Putin wants peace, the economy is great. Here is a graphic MSNBC ran yesterday rebutting his various INSANE claims of things whose prices had “fallen:”
Here is how Semafor summed up statements he made yesterday from the White House:
US President Donald Trump acknowledged his trade war carried economic and political risks, but insisted they were necessary to “save the country.” Noting fears of supply shortages and steep price rises resulting from his tariffs, Trump told his cabinet that “maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls” at Christmas and “maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more.” He also admitted that his tariff program could cause Republicans to lose control of Congress.
Yes, the leader of our once great country said that his economic plans means the American people will “pay more and get less.” Yes, the Republican Party is running on a platform to erode American’s standard of living - make us poorer - on purpose, by design. That Semafor article also included this chart, with new consumer confidence data from the Conference Board:
The label “Banana Republicans” has never been more fitting for these guys. And while things are bad with the tariffs, Trump’s emerging reconciliation bill is going to makes things worse, a lot worse.
Our Work Is Making A Difference, The Circle Of Defiance Is Growing - Friends, there is no question that today we are stronger and he is weaker. Godspeed to all of you hitting rallies and protests over the next few days. A majority of the country disapproves of Trump. A majority of the country disapproves of almost every one of his major policy initiatives. 78% of the country expects him to follow court orders. He has lost the big argument, most of the small arguments too and is in a very weakened place. It has been 100 days of failure, lawlessness, buffoonery and betrayal, We The People are pissed and the circle of defiance is growing.
12 House Republicans have said they cannot vote for the Medicaid cuts. Yesterday 3 Senate Rs crossed over to block Trump’s most significant domestic initiative. Trump keeps getting routed in court, even in his Supreme Court. Harvard and Fed Chairman Powell are not bending the knee, and either are global markets. Putin and Xi are openly mocking him, and Europe/Ukraine have dismissed his ridiculous “give Russia everything they ever wanted” plan. That he is weak not strong, a loser not a winner, that indeed the orange Emperor has no clothes (what a sight that would be!!!!!!!!!!!!) is becoming more widely understood by all.
More and more voters are becoming available to us now, open to the idea that he is a fuck up and a lame duck and not the guy they hoped he would be. That’s why we need to keep as working as hard as we can all. For we are moving the needle; we are stronger and he is weaker; and as we say here little cracks can become big cracks, little wins can become big ones - but only if we keep doing the work. Incredibly proud and grateful to all of you for working so hard for our freedoms, our families and our future…..
Opening A Third Front, Winning The Fourth Of July - Now I want to dive briefly into two more things we discussed last night. If winning the big economic argument with Trump is the First Front, and driving his abandonment of the Constitutional order, his dismantling of the Federal government and selling out to Putin is the Second Front, I think we need to turn the barbaric attacks on our health and science into a new, powerful and clearly articulated Third Front.
We also spent time last night talking about the need to win July 4th, and make that day a painful day for Trump. This is a piece of my Letter To America/Second Front concept, where we begin planning now in our communities and in groups to make the day that America celebrates its separation from a Mad, Capricious King something deeply poignant and powerful. July 4th is our holiday; the flag is our flag; the celebration of freedom and liberty our celebration. We cannot allow the most un-American American, the man who has done more to betray America than any other, own this day. We need to own July 4th this year, and make it a painful day for all those who have betrayed the great, noble American experiment.
Going Live With Jane Kleeb Today At 2pm ET - Friends, our good friend Jane Kleeb is returning today at 2pm ET. She will giving us updates on the new unprecedented investments in state parties just announced by the DNC (Organize Everywhere, Win Anywhere) and on progress we’ve been making through the DNC-led People’s Town Halls in red districts and states.
While we met Jane last year when Hopium invested in and helped her as Nebraska State Party Chair win the “blue dot” - Nebraska’s sole Electoral College vote - recently Jane was elected President of the Association of State Democratic Committees and a Vice Chair of the DNC. She is an active part of Ken Martin’s new management team at the DNC, and I am grateful she is taking time to join us once again today.
Here’s how you can join our live discussion at 2pm ET:
Click on this link a a few minutes before 2pm ET
Head to the Notes section of our site or Hopium Chronicles on the Substack app at 2pm
Turn on the Live toggle under Notifications in your Substack Settings which will allow you to receive a notice at 2pm with a link (see below)
Live streams are becoming a very important part of the Substack platform, and we will be doing at least one every week. The tech is still in its early stages so please be patient as we learn how to use it, and give yourself a bit of time to play with it too. We’ve found that once you get it down it is easy to use but it takes a bit of work to master it.
For those of you who cannot make it live today we will be sending out a recording of our discussion later this afternoon.
Recommended Actions and Campaigns - Given our that priorities for daily action are changing, and given that many of you are protesting and rallying over the next few days, I only have one recommended action for today - please donate to the campaign of Abigail Spanberger in Virginia!
Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front linesof the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government.
We’ve raised more than $86,000 so far towards our June 30th goal of $250,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!
Keep working hard all. We are making progress, undeniable progress, but need to keep working it as hard as we can - Simon
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