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Deborah Potter's avatar

Statistical overperformance in election results is a common analysis within political science. Actual performance is measured against factors including historical trends, polling data, and expert predictions. Simon has discussed it extensively, especially how undecided voters and low (political) information voters broke for trump in the final days.

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Deborah Potter's avatar

I know you are a mathematician and I am a PhD scientist whose research employed mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of complex systems. I'm saying it's better to receive the message that is being delivered than to get hung up on terminology.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Emily 2 points here 1) no need to be so combative. 2) this terminology is in common use in our business and as Deborah mentions it is also being correctly used as it represents an over performance against the partisan lean or recent performances of these states or districts and conveys electoral strenght or weakness. We don’t talk to voters here we talk to activitists and I work hard to be as precise as I can in all my commentary. In this case I want to say respectfully that I think you are wrong and should work a bit harder to understand the math and logic behind the analysis.

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MaryCFM's avatar

Appreciate Simon’s talk,as I was a bit down. Yes to Ridicule! Ridicule is what wannabe strong men free the most ~~ Ruth Ben Giat.

For years now what has helped me psychologically is that whenever I hear Trump speak, esp putting others down, which is ALl the time I say: talking about yourself again …it sooo helps.

Finally, I agree with Simon about Trump not wanting the job as Pres. I’m toying with the fact that Trump doesn’t like America. To me that puts a clarity on all his actions . He doesn’t like America!

Well, we Americans love America, proud of our Constitution and its rights, protections, founded in decency. He doesn’t like US!

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Claire Cirolia's avatar

Agreed Mary, I don't think he EVER wanted to be President, even back in 2016. He just wanted to prove he could win and never thought past that. Because all that matters to him is exactly as Simon has often described -- win/lose; weak/strong; huge/small; tough/wimp and yes rich/poor. Not to be a broken record, but those of who grew up in NY always knew this about him -- he's the 3rd grader we couldn't stand in school. And he still is. He was always impressed by the mob in NY. Always loved the tough guy. But he wouldn't have lasted one minute with them because he is a spineless, weak blubbering baby man. He's got that big mouth with that loud NY speak that fools people into sounding tough and powerful when it's all a facade.

Does he hate America? He loves it because it allowed him to become who he is (pre-2016) .... but does he love it the way a true patriot does? Whose immigrants grandparents came to this country looking for a better life? Whose fathers fought in WWII to stop an evil dictator from destroying Europe and the world? The way those of us who still get chills when we view the magnificence of this beautiful city (Washington) rather than degrade and insult it? The way those of us still get chills when we view and salute the American flag? The way those of us who like to be greeted with "Welcome home" when we come back from Europe through Dulles Airport immigration? The way we look out for our neighbors and those less fortunate than we are? NO, he doesn't love this country.

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Tom Thumb's avatar

"The notion that democracy finds its strength in its essential goodness and moral improvement over its rival systems is fanciful. Instead, democratic societies flourish because they have a memory of being nearly obliterated by an external enemy. They avoided extinction only through collective action, and the memory of that collective action makes democratic politics easier to conduct in the present..."

--Peter Turchin, historian (as paraphrased by The Atlantic)

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Gina's avatar

It is exhausting.

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Tom Thumb's avatar

Can't argue with that, Gina. I try to remember the time I was tasked with putting together a month long educational celebration online in 60 days. Pretty much everyone except a brilliant online community leader named Sheryl Nussbaum-Beach I worked with thought it was going to be a catastrophic failure. It was anything but. In hindsight, we realized the key to success wasn't really much different than climbing any other mountain. Put one foot in front of another and **don't look up** until you find yourself on the peak.

Yeah, I know, a total cliché. I think the problem in this case is that there is so much **** flying at us every day it feels like you're running from mountain to mountain, trying to climb them all at once, but why are we doing that? I remember Simon telling us that when we're talking to undecided people, we should pick one thing we know about and feel passionate about and focus our whole pitch on that. And I wonder why the Democrats aren't doing that in a formal organized way.

Because no matter how many outrages he throws out there, there will always be tens of thousands of people for whom that outrage is personal, more than enough to kick each one right back down his throat, and thanks to online tech and online community-building functionality, it only takes a few dozen people to bring together and organize the rest.

Why isn't there a mechanism set up that allows some subset of us, every time something else happens we OMG over, to say to the rest, "hey, we got this one," with another mechanism set up like Simon's self-reporting for each "outrage community" to be able to report to the community as a whole what they're doing as a group, so people know that "hey, we got this" *means* "we got this."

This is a war, and isn't that how the military would do it? Different companies taking different hills, different battalions taking on different battles that those hills sum up to--energy, the environment, immigration, etc? Sure there are organizations associated with every issue under the sun, and they're part of the solution, but the lifeblood of grassroots self-organizing communities necessary to win a fight like this only seems to flow through a small subset of them. We win at Hopium when we focus. We just need more Hopiums so we know someone else has our flanks covered and is as focused on what we can't as we are. My 2 cents.

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Jen Macin's avatar

Thank you. The OMG feels like it is winning so often, but I have to be a "hey we got this one"er.

And yes, Simon, I will JOIN YOU and this community IN DC! Say when.

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ArcticStones's avatar

NORWAY TO SECURE AMERICAN CLIMATE DATA

The Trump administration has stopped collecting climate data and removed it from websites. Now the government is setting aside money for Norway to secure the data.

The goal is to protect health and climate data in particular, which is largely stored in the US. American research policy has changed very quickly. There is uncertainty about funding, and there is also uncertainty about some of these important data sources, especially in the areas of climate and health.

"There is uncertainty about whether this data will be safeguarded, maintained and made available. We want to ensure that we can safeguard and take responsibility for that," says Minister of Research Sigrun Aasland.

https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/klima/regjeringen-gir-20-millioner-for-sikre-klimadata-fra-usa-1.17410880?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

(Link to rough English version via Google Translate, my edited summary above.)

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Jayne M's avatar

Thank goodness some country who gives a damn about climate change will oversee our data.

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ArcticStones's avatar

TRUMP’s WAR ON TRUTH

Trump Cancels Grants to Study Online Misinformation: "The Trump administration has sharply expanded its campaign against experts who track misinformation and other harmful content online, abruptly canceling scores of scientific research grants at universities across the country,” the New York Times reports.

https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/15/trump-cancels-grants-to-study-online-misinformation/

Thought: Given the sorry excuse for what currently passes for American "government", the only way to continue this important work seems to be funding from philanthropies or foundations, perhaps ideally given to universities for this express purpose.

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Christine B in NC's avatar

Really like the script for the call, Simon. I made my calls already this morning to our crap NC senators Tillis and Burr first thing and spoke to actual staffers for the first time in I don't know how long. I rambled a bit without your tight script but I hit the bases. I wish 5 Calls would include your script because it's a great consolidation of all the terrible things in the reconcilliation and why we will continue to fight. I also laid out my fury at the firing of Mike Collins and Maria Langen-Riekhoff at the NIC because the Agency didn't support the trumpian fig leaf about the Veneualan government being locked into MS13. We need to keep watching and reminding our congresspeople that they need to do their jobs.

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Carleton Palmer's avatar

I'm in NC, too, and have been sending those same folks Emails. At best I'd guess staffers tick of check marks on the issues, but it's more likely they do nothing at all, much like their bosses. It's good to hear from you, neighbor.

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Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Simon, I just wanted to say that last night's discussion was one of the best ever. I really appreciate your clear-eyed take on the 2024 election and what we need to do going forward.

I'm writing postcards for Virginia and called my Maryland reps to urge them to defeat the budget and the tariffs.

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Dr. Kent Boyer's avatar

Hi Simon and friends - the best thing you talked about last night, Simon, was your perspective that the 24 Presidential election was a complete outlier to what came before and what's come after. These wins we've had since the Presidential do feel exactly like the the wins that started in 2018 where we performed better than expected every single time. I value your experience and perspective because sometimes we create a script in our minds that just isn't true - like in this case. We aren't losers - we have a huge winning track record. We lost the Presidency and that's a nightmare but it's not our track record. Thanks for the fresh perspective. Kent

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LJ's avatar

Nutcase nominee for surgeon general finished medical school but dropped out of residency.

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fourfreedomsfan's avatar

Just listened to this week's The Downballot podcast. Is Georgia a state that would benefit from Hopium-style investment (in the NC or NE manner)? They have a new party leader.

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Jayne M's avatar

Senator Ossoff is the only DEM Senator up for 2026 re-election in a state 47 won in 2024. I'm hoping Simon considers our group supporting Ossoff. The current governor (who would have been a very tough opponet) is not running against him and MTG is out, it seems. Rep. Buddy Carter suddenly seems to be the front-runner and is proudly spewing his MAGAness and embrace of Trump-- hoping that blows up in his face! But there could be some unknown R who jumps in later.

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ArcticStones's avatar

On a related note, Georgia also has an ancient Congressman who perhaps should retire. David Scott in GA-13) is 79 years old. Incredibly enough, despite being ousted as ranking member of the Agriculture Committee last year over concerns about his health, he has decided to run for reelection in 2026.

A perfect example that David Hogg has a major point. Some of these politicians who are a decade or two past what would otherwise be retirement age really do need to be gently escorted out the door.

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Randy Gold's avatar

Big things are happening in Tucson.

(1) Another 1,000-2,000 strong "Trump/Tesla/All That Bad Shit" Takedown this Saturday, the 8th such protest. Several smaller protests, including at Rep. Ciscomani's office (AZ-06), are also happening around town every week.

(2) We've been in contact with Tucson City Council and Pima County Supervisors on passing a resolution condemning the administration, and have provided a proposal.

(3) June 14th, we're organizing a "NO KINGS" caravan of 250-500 vehicles traversing Tucson, and for those not up for driving, lining parts of the route with protestors.

Interested in comparing notes for any of these? Contact me at tucsonprotests@proton.me.

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Elizabeth T.'s avatar

This is great!!!

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Jason's avatar

As a former Tucson resident I say great job!

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Ralene's avatar

Hello fellow Hopers! Great Wednesday chat - Simon, as always, you help us look up to the stars rather than down into the mud.

My calls today were about the reconciliation bill.

I talked to James at Congresswoman Boebert's office, and I told him how concerned I am about the rural parts of our district. With the cuts to Medicaid in the reconciliation bill, many of the clinics and hospitals in rural Colorado will close, and I'm very worried about families and children losing access to health care. James has argued with me in the past, but this new tactic of talking about children and families seems to be working with him...no arguing this week on my daily calls.

My calls to Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper (a live person today!) - I thanked them and their staffs for everything they are doing, and I asked them to do anything they can to fight the reconciliation bill. Underhanded, overhanded - whatever it takes. I also talked to them about children and families in rural Colorado to remind them that this is what plays well with conservative Coloradans.

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Kate Feldman's avatar

I'm a former resident of CO and Boebert used to be my rep. GOOD WORK. Thanks so much. You're an inspiration.

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Elizabeth T.'s avatar

Shock! I actually spoke to a person at Sen. Tillis's DC office who assured me that the Senator would not be rubber stamping the bill once it makes its way through the House and that the senator had promised not to reduce Medicaid. Um, okay. But I made my points. I left a message for Sen. Budd and talked to my Democratic congresswoman's rep. I asked that they compile a list of NC rural hospitals and nursing homes that will have to close if the budget is passed as it is written. He got excited, so we'll see if there is any traction there.

JVL on the Bulwark made an interesting point that the mad king does not care about whether or not Dems flip the House since he is not attempting to pass legislation anyway. It sent a shiver down my spine. But the Dems are having a tea party moment and are building up strength at the local level that will be paying off for decades to come. (Bulwark podcast -- it's long but fascinating: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-dictator-erotica)

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Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Yes, but Congress initiates impeachment.

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Elizabeth T.'s avatar

Now that I've watched the conversation from last night, I see that Simon disagrees with this sentiment. He says Trump cares and will direct the RNC to throw money into these races. So we'll see, but I am choosing to be hopeful and will be working my tail off in NC to flip some of these Republican seats! Western NC is furious at FEMA's abandonment (thanks, DOGE!).

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Janet HB's avatar

Also congress has the power to put a stop to some of his most egregious actions. Congress can pull back their constitutional right to control tariffs for example.

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Carleton Palmer's avatar

These wonderful upcoming candidates have all been around while the cabal of the wealthy have openly plotted and planned to take over the most powerful AND DANGEROUS entity in history and succeeded. Trump is a front man for the truly dangerous who have already calculated our every move. Election? What election?

Some things in life are bad they can really make you mad Other things just make you swear and curse

When you've chewing an life's gristle

Don't grumble give a whistle

And this'll xelp things turn out for the best

And always look on the bright side of life

Always look on the light side of life

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Gina's avatar
2dEdited

Please DO NOT GIVE JAKE TAPPER ANY OXYGEN!!!! He is off my list of worthy people. His book is already OLD HAT!!!! Please do not waste any breath talking about his stupid book. Joe Biden screwed us all when he refused to get out of the race. The Dems have the right playbook just crappy messaging - to much talk, not enough angry, not enough energy, not enough oomph. We have many ways to solve issues, we talk about alot of the issues. For the MAGA's it was ONE NASTY RACIST felon, one constant drone of outrageous lies, the more outrageous the better, more lies the better. What does MAGA do well, they lie!!! Their lies never materialize. People vote for his lies. Why not remind them of the lies?

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Herbert Schaffner's avatar

Great work, Simon and all. Go Hopiates! What do folks think about the anti-Biden hysteria related to the Tapper book and CNN all-in coverage? Making Clooney the hero etc? Fair?

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Elizabeth T.'s avatar

Everything about it pisses me off (Biden not stepping down, Tapper writing the book, the media for focusing on this instead of the senile sociopath we are stuck with as a result, etc.), but I say it's better to get the story out there now and let all the windbags do their thing so that by the time store shelves are empty and campaign season for 2026 is starting to roll for real, we can focus on the mad king, democracy, and the plans Democrats have to make things better.

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Fisher's avatar

they didn't do this shit to reagan like this when he actually had true dementia and was much younger to boot. they still don't.

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BeeBeeinNYC's avatar

I haven't read it, and honestly, probably won't, but I also saw something (from some legit source/opinion) that stated the book doesn't contain anything new under the sun. It has always been my "take" that Biden had lifelong communication issues which worsened with age, and that normal age-related diminishment was NOT a secret. Furthermore, democracies have a history of being headed by old men - and all that that entails - nothing new there. But Biden surrounded himself with trustworthy people and was accustomed to delegating. Considering the alternative, while I would have preferred he stuck to his guns about being a one-time president, I can't find a reason to beat this horse. He is old, yes, but he doesn't have a malignant, malevolent personality disorder, and that for me is the salient issue.

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Cynthia Erb's avatar

More of this from the DNC please! https://www.thedailybeast.com/dnc-trolls-trump-with-welcome-to-qatar-a-lago-banner-over-mar-a-lago/. Creative, bold, kind of funny.

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