I love "Do More, Worry Less," truly words to live by in all areas of life. Thank you for captaining this lively ship, Simon, and happy Thursday to my fellow hopium addicts. Let's stick the landing in November by never ever taking our eyes off the target of 55%!
I’ll be postcarding regularly and doing voter registration at our local community college every week until the election deadline. That is how I stay sane during elections. Plus we need young people in the electorate!
Me too with a thumbs up on postcarding. It takes me to my Zen place, which is not so easy to do these days with Trump on the loose. I am rarely without a postcard list., but I didn't figure I would have knocked out so many this early in the year though!
I'm going to start doing voter registration in 2 weeks with Indivisible Charlotte. We are targeting the community college campus that draws from Trish Cotham's district (aka the treason weasel who flipped parties mid-term and gave the GOP a veto proof majority in the NC legislature). We will be doing it under the auspices of You Can Vote (www.youcanvote.org/) a nonpartisan voter registration group working across NC. I did my training yesterday over Zoom and I am jazzed up.
I grew up in MD, so I definitely had some challenges when I moved here, but now I have been here more than half my life. But I came when it was considered a purple state in the legislature as well - there was a lot less gerrymandering.
But there were some "interesting" contrasts - like Jesse Helms in the Senate at the same time that Harvey Gannt was a two-term mayor of Charlotte. (He had integrated Clemson University in the early 60s). I also discovered (much later on) that one of the "Greensboro Four" worked at the same company that I did.
Jesse Helms was an evil bigot. He ran a racist campaign for Senate against Harvey Gannt in 1984. Harvey Gannt did a good job as mayor of Charlotte and would have been a good senator. Jesse tried to obstruct any progressive piece of legislation that might help the disadvantaged. He was against the MLK holiday and the immigration amnesty program. He was "Senator No." I despised that man; now we're stuck with Ted Budd.
I am in the midst of sending postcards fot the NY race. I am also getting ready to meet with some grassroots groups in Michigan. I live in Vermont but am reaching out to work in the swing states. I am wondering about your thoughts about the article in either the New York Times or the Washington Post (I can’t remember which) from yesterday. The article reported that there are Arab and Muslim groups that are organising to not vote for Biden by not voting for him or voting third-party. They will not vote for Trump and do plan to vote Democrat down ballot. Do you have ideas or do you think it’s possible to address their concerns?
I see again the note that younger voters seem to rank foreign policy very low, and you doubt that the Israel/Hamas war will be as damaging as some say. I hope that's true. But as a field organizer I pay attention to what voters are telling us, and we're just finishing up texting a big group of Democrats in New Mexico (getting them to sign nominating petitions for our federal candidates, which can now be done online in NM) and calls for a ceasefire are coming up a LOT. These are committed Dems and too many of them are saying they can't support Biden and/or our congressional candidates because of this issue. Maybe they'll come around, and we're trying to point out that our Representatives have all supported a ceasefire, etc. But for those of us old enough to remember what the Vietnam war did to Johnson, I worry. Not a reason to stop working hard, of course, but I do hope the Biden administration and the party will get to a position (and hopefully the fighting can end also, of course) that helps these folks get to a point where they can support us.
And Joe Biden has also supported a ceasefire. Both Israel and Hamas have refused, though it was Hamas who violated it first. People are not informed and part of that is on Biden. I listened to David Frum recently and he and his guests just flat out said Biden is just a lousy spokesperson. He is unwilling or unable to be a forceful advocate, and so his accomplishments are not well known. Incredibly, Joe Klein even called him a walking cadaver! Frum later had the nerve to say W was a good president. He can't bring himself to admit W was a disaster. This is why I do not trust the Liz Cheneys and David Frums of the world to have our backs. I don't know Klein's voting record but he is hardly a strong Dem IMO, calling himself in the past a "radical centrist" whatever that means. I would submit that the people you are seeing are the most politically active and they are concerned about the election more than the average Joe, who probably does not care much about Gaza. We have one job, to defeat fascism right here. Everything else must take a back seat. Preach it. FDR did not bomb the railways in Europe during the Holocaust and he oversaw bombing of Italian citizens after Italy had already surrendered. Imagine if American Jews and Italians abandoned him at such a time. I think we are in just as dangerous a time now; a maniac is running for president, is tied with Biden in polling, and could have access to weaponry that could destroy the earth. Gaza has to take a back seat. What will Bibi do with a trump in the WH who will do nothing to restrain him? Eyes on the prize.....
David, What do you think the messaging should be? The one issue voting is how we got here. We got here in 2000 with GWB. I can only imagine where we would be with climate change if Al Gore would have one and how 911 (if it had happened) would have been handled under his administration. Then, 2016 brings us Trump. I know you know that, but one issue voting is what brings us the unintended consequences.
There is advocacy to be done with a Biden administration - to argue for a different policy. There will be no advocacy for the Palestinians with a Trump Presidency - he and Bibi have a bromance going and that will not serve the interests of those who wish to protect the future of the Palestinians. I do not know why that message does not work. I am interested in your thoughts - not just to get their votes - also to keep someone in office who is at least willing to work for Palestinian statehood.
You are right - there's no question that Palestinian rights will be far worse under Trump. But I don't think we can start with that message. We can only talk about how bad Trump would be, on this and so many other issues, after coming to it from a positive message. Otherwise all we will hear from many of these people will be that we're arguing for the "lesser of two evils". I think we need to start with what we are FOR. That's why I hope we will soon be at a point where we can point to a ceasefire, proper humanitarian aid being delivered to Gaza, and real pressure on Israel towards a state for the Palestinians. Then we have an argument to make about how there is progress on this one issue, and that can be combined with all the other important issues on which Biden and Democrats are so much better.
I appreciate your input and ideas and thanks for all your hard work! Hoping for all of that. Did you read Thomas Friedman's column today about what he sees as the multiprong "Biden Doctrine"? It's a good read. I am planning on working in Michigan with groups there and there is a large Arab/Muslim population that feels strongly to the point of not voting or voting 3rd party. That's why I asked about messaging. The Muslim Ban is still being batted about in Trump's campaign promises as far as I know. This is so frightening.
I just read that column. And I agree with most of it. If the Biden administration were to enunciate this policy, and embark on it, we'd be a lot further forward, both in the Middle East and with the domestic politics of the issue. So I hope something like that is coming!
I want to make a couple of comments here, acknowledging this is an area of disagreement inside our family, and I have broadly backed Biden here while calling for more aggressive actions to oust Bibi.
1) There just isn't definitive data showing that the war has hurt Biden. As I showed in my post today we've actually had a very good week of polling, and polling in many high quality polls show no erosion for Biden with young people. This is all possible given how the war goes, but there has been a tendency among Biden's critics to cherry pick and misinterpret polls and exaggerate the impact of the war on his standing, or even what may happen in Michigan, something I also address in my post above. Yes we have work to do here no doubt, but to repeat - there isn't clear definitive data that the war has been a major problem for Biden or will hurt him this November.
2) Which leads me to my next point, and I am going to say this bluntly, I find the Vietnam war analogy to be ridiculous. The idea that that war, where tens of thousands of Americans died over many years, caused a national draft, etc is anything like what is happening in the Middle East today to be so a historical that I am literally astonished when I see it expressed. We are facing an existential crisis in our democracy right now, and Trump is openly aligned with Russian-Iranian-Hamas forces which seek genocide in Ukraine and Israel, are attacking our troops in the region, killed 29 Americans on October 7th killed and are working towards the ending of our democracy here. It is nothing like Vietnam, in any way.
3) I understand why people are upset with what is happening in the Middle East right now, but I think some of the criticism of Biden has been deeply unfair and overly simplistic, and the continued disruptions of our events rather than, for example, focusing protests around Trump and his proposals to arrest, put in detention camps and deport tens of millions of people living and working here in the US, or his Muslim ban, to be disappointing.
I appreciate the update, and yes we have work to do. But we also need to keep grounding this conversation in reality, out of respect for the President, the country and each other.
Thanks for the response, Simon. My point wasn't to say that this is like Vietnam, but rather to be aware that there's a lot of discontent on this issue out there, within our own family. And that issues that aren't adequately addressed can grow. So I hope that we don't take the position that because polling doesn't show this as making a big difference right now, it should be ignored. Of course, in the meantime we have a lot of other very important issues to address and campaign on. And we need to make that point to people unhappy about this one issue, while making it clear that we hear them.
I also wonder what happens with this issue as it becomes clear that the election is now Biden v Trump and the - wrong! - media narrative that "Trump is winning." Trump is much, much worse on Gaza (he supports flattening Gaza and enable Netanyahu and settlers). So, if you really care about Gaza, ceasefire and you think Trump could win, a protest vote against Biden for Trump (or for West) and staying home becomes much more problematic particularly, as a young person, if you also care about choice, gun controls, and climate. . Biden's Israel policy - one could argue - helps him electorally in that he is making it much harder for Trump to win on Israel (in those places where it matters, like South Florida and Penn) and he can still position himself as the anti Netanyahu candidate. Note - I am personally supportive of a cease fire but just don't think the full political picture is being considered in the current analysis of the Gaza protest vote impact on the general.
See my reply to Theressa above. All of what you say is true. But I just don't think it's effective to start from the "Trump is so much worse" argument, even if it's true. IMHO we need to start from the positive, and once we've made those points we can remind people how terrible Trump would be on that and so many other issues.
I want to be clear that I do not think, based on the data I've shared here over many months, that there is "a lot of discontent" on this issue in our own family. I think the discontent is very limited, but intensely felt; and on the flip side, many many Jews I know remain horrified by how far too often the critics of the President cross over into pro-Hamas, Jewish genocide language. Jewish voters are also a very important part of our coalition, and their concerns and views are seldomly considered in our internal debate about this.
Finally, as I have said repeatedly in my talks and in writing here I think we have a lot of work to do to address the concerns members of our family have about this challenging issue, but the critics of Biden on this issue continually exaggerate the level of concern/opposition inside our family, and it is deeply tiresome.
I live in the same media market as upstate SC, so I get a lot of SC news. I hadn't previously realized that in SC you don't declare your party affiliation. So for primaries everyone picks which one to vote in. SC Democratic primary is Saturday, but the GOP one is next month. NPR interviewed a SC guy urging Democrats to skip the Democratic primary and wait and vote in the GOP primary for Haley to keep her campaign viable for a while longer or at least try and diminish a Trump victory. If there is lower than expected turnout for the SC Democratic primary this weekend, this may be a factor.
Whenever a woman challenges Trump, he is more unhinged than usual. While he was in office, think Nancy Pelosi, Angela Merkel, Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris (when she was in the Senate and making mincemeat of Trump's cabinet nominees like Jeff Sessions). Oh and climate activist Greta Thunberg.
To that list you can now add all the female lawyers, prosecutors, and judges involved in legal actions against him and of course, Taylor Swift.
Probably really unnerved him when the woman's march occurred right after he took office. I couldn't go as I was working at a bookstore I managed, but I had those from the area who had attended to do a roundtable after discussing why women felt the need to attend, what they felt they accomplished and who they met from across the country. It was awesome!
Have you had a chance to see the Navigator Research poll on Congress? From what I read about it, it looks very good for team blue, at least in battleground districts. A little concerned about the recent news in NYC where a police officer was beat up by asylum seekers; it's all I'm hearing about in the Metro area. Mostly being pushed by Fox, NY Post, Washington Examiner, the usual suspects. Wonder if it will affect Tom Suozzi race...I'm a little superstitious about donating because any candidate I ever gave to went on to lose! Only thing though is that Tom's opponent seems like a train wreck and is not even a registered republican from what I have read.
I have some questions about current polls. it seems to me that a lot of voters have left the GOP - maybe wish casting, but I don't know. Do you have numbers on how many R's vs D's in the US now compared with 2020? When polls are taken, how do they adjust their numbers? based on current estimates (ie. percentage of GOP, D, independents) or 2020, 2022? If current, how do they get the estimates?
I came here to recommend Rick Wilson's interview with Stuart Stevens from last week (https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/the-dark-shadow-of-trump). Very funny and very informative. But to somewhat answer your question, one takeaway they discussed from the Iowa caucus (and may be useful going forward): 68% of the self-identified Iowa Republicans are MEN. Where does that leave the party if women are abandoning it in droves?
Simin… I read your posts daily … you give me so much positive info to pass on to others. Love the cartoon… the old one picture is better than 1000 words!!! G
I'd like to mention the wonderful speech my Senator Angus King (I-ME) made last night on the floor of the Senate, concerning the importance of our funding Ukraine. You may have seen a reference to it in Heather Cox Richardson's newsletter today. King's speech is well worth reading, & you can probably find it on CSpan.
Yes it was a great speech. Heather's write up was also very good. I spend a lot of time in ME in summer, fishing the Belgrade lakes while enjoying the free concerts across the lake at the New England Music Camp. Actually bumped into LePaige last summer at Marden's, the store he used to manage. I was polite.....
"I express doubt that Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war will be as damaging to him as some say. Note this data point from Economist/YouGov this week. The % of 18-29 year olds who say their most important issue is “foreign policy” is zero."
I still don't buy into the threats that young voters are turned off because of what is happening in Israel & Gaza. Heck, even older voters don't pay that much attention to foreign policy.
I was at a fundraiser last night (for Raul GriJava) and got into the standard “OMG, Trump winning I am going to have to leave the country” conversation with some friends, fellow Dems, campaigners (yet again!) and it spurred some thoughts to share, FWIW and would appreciate other advice, thoughts on how to best “win” these conversations.
1. People don’t hear what we are saying right away. They are coming from a place of fear. An irrational place. So, repetition, reassurance and listening is important. We need to calm them down. Let them talk. Give them a way out. If they internalize one or two “Hopium” points that’s a win.
2. People - even pros (especially them!) - are trained to believe polls, 538. So saying “polls don’t work” or “other polls show Biden is winning” is a tough argument to win. What works is to say the polls show things are tied in the battlegrounds (margin of error!) but the other signs are really good - winning elections, money, trump issues (that allows us to throw in positive details). So, we have work to do but are in a good place.
3. Simon’s positive framing really works. People really like hearing “Joe Biden is a good President.” No one wants to be scared and giving a positive narrative is reassuring and almost everyone likes it (even if they are going to go back to the place of fear). As a note, I was at the Anderson Clayton fundraiser earlier this week and Simon led with that line for his talk and it completely changed the Vibe in the room.
4. Talking about Anderson Clayton and Ben Winkler and local heroes and expanding the map works. It moves the conversation away from polls, fear and to specifics to forward looking ideas.
5.. i can’t believe we have to have these conversations (over and over again!) but we do and it is fun/satifying when it works.
It's pleasant to experience optimism based on your enthusiasm. But much of the electorate is not educated to facts and doesn't change beliefs easily. When you hear ambivalent voters even Democrats, they describe a disconnect with Biden... age, generation, likelihood of death or incapacity, the Palestinian issue, cost of living...they don't "feel" the good statistics, some even fantasize that the "businessman" Trump would be better for the economy. I heard Biden messaging about the economy in S.Carolina , it was dry and unmoving...The campaign has a challenge to make a candidate, who is a good man and President, but lacks charisma, rise to the challenge of a demagogue...In my view the campaign is failing miserably.
I love "Do More, Worry Less," truly words to live by in all areas of life. Thank you for captaining this lively ship, Simon, and happy Thursday to my fellow hopium addicts. Let's stick the landing in November by never ever taking our eyes off the target of 55%!
I’ll be postcarding regularly and doing voter registration at our local community college every week until the election deadline. That is how I stay sane during elections. Plus we need young people in the electorate!
Postcarding indeed keeps me sane, as well, and is calming.
Thank you, Simon, and this community, together always inspiring Hope.
Me too with a thumbs up on postcarding. It takes me to my Zen place, which is not so easy to do these days with Trump on the loose. I am rarely without a postcard list., but I didn't figure I would have knocked out so many this early in the year though!
I'm going to start doing voter registration in 2 weeks with Indivisible Charlotte. We are targeting the community college campus that draws from Trish Cotham's district (aka the treason weasel who flipped parties mid-term and gave the GOP a veto proof majority in the NC legislature). We will be doing it under the auspices of You Can Vote (www.youcanvote.org/) a nonpartisan voter registration group working across NC. I did my training yesterday over Zoom and I am jazzed up.
Courageous and important work, I remember the treason weasel thst gave the veto-proof majority to the NC Legislature.
Lived in Durham NC two years — challenging for a Northeasterner.
I grew up in MD, so I definitely had some challenges when I moved here, but now I have been here more than half my life. But I came when it was considered a purple state in the legislature as well - there was a lot less gerrymandering.
But there were some "interesting" contrasts - like Jesse Helms in the Senate at the same time that Harvey Gannt was a two-term mayor of Charlotte. (He had integrated Clemson University in the early 60s). I also discovered (much later on) that one of the "Greensboro Four" worked at the same company that I did.
Jesse Helms was an evil bigot. He ran a racist campaign for Senate against Harvey Gannt in 1984. Harvey Gannt did a good job as mayor of Charlotte and would have been a good senator. Jesse tried to obstruct any progressive piece of legislation that might help the disadvantaged. He was against the MLK holiday and the immigration amnesty program. He was "Senator No." I despised that man; now we're stuck with Ted Budd.
I agree 100%! Tedd Budd is an election denier!!
Let’s get on with the trials which will solidify Biden/Harris support against this criminal candidate!
Great presentation on Lawrence's show last night!
Agree! Appreciated Lawrence's shout out to the viewers who asked that he bring Simon back on.
Simon
I am in the midst of sending postcards fot the NY race. I am also getting ready to meet with some grassroots groups in Michigan. I live in Vermont but am reaching out to work in the swing states. I am wondering about your thoughts about the article in either the New York Times or the Washington Post (I can’t remember which) from yesterday. The article reported that there are Arab and Muslim groups that are organising to not vote for Biden by not voting for him or voting third-party. They will not vote for Trump and do plan to vote Democrat down ballot. Do you have ideas or do you think it’s possible to address their concerns?
Just made a 3rd donation to Tom Suozzi’s campaign. Hope it helps.
I see again the note that younger voters seem to rank foreign policy very low, and you doubt that the Israel/Hamas war will be as damaging as some say. I hope that's true. But as a field organizer I pay attention to what voters are telling us, and we're just finishing up texting a big group of Democrats in New Mexico (getting them to sign nominating petitions for our federal candidates, which can now be done online in NM) and calls for a ceasefire are coming up a LOT. These are committed Dems and too many of them are saying they can't support Biden and/or our congressional candidates because of this issue. Maybe they'll come around, and we're trying to point out that our Representatives have all supported a ceasefire, etc. But for those of us old enough to remember what the Vietnam war did to Johnson, I worry. Not a reason to stop working hard, of course, but I do hope the Biden administration and the party will get to a position (and hopefully the fighting can end also, of course) that helps these folks get to a point where they can support us.
And Joe Biden has also supported a ceasefire. Both Israel and Hamas have refused, though it was Hamas who violated it first. People are not informed and part of that is on Biden. I listened to David Frum recently and he and his guests just flat out said Biden is just a lousy spokesperson. He is unwilling or unable to be a forceful advocate, and so his accomplishments are not well known. Incredibly, Joe Klein even called him a walking cadaver! Frum later had the nerve to say W was a good president. He can't bring himself to admit W was a disaster. This is why I do not trust the Liz Cheneys and David Frums of the world to have our backs. I don't know Klein's voting record but he is hardly a strong Dem IMO, calling himself in the past a "radical centrist" whatever that means. I would submit that the people you are seeing are the most politically active and they are concerned about the election more than the average Joe, who probably does not care much about Gaza. We have one job, to defeat fascism right here. Everything else must take a back seat. Preach it. FDR did not bomb the railways in Europe during the Holocaust and he oversaw bombing of Italian citizens after Italy had already surrendered. Imagine if American Jews and Italians abandoned him at such a time. I think we are in just as dangerous a time now; a maniac is running for president, is tied with Biden in polling, and could have access to weaponry that could destroy the earth. Gaza has to take a back seat. What will Bibi do with a trump in the WH who will do nothing to restrain him? Eyes on the prize.....
Joe just announced sanctions against violent West Bank settlers, he's clearly had it with Netanyahu.
David, What do you think the messaging should be? The one issue voting is how we got here. We got here in 2000 with GWB. I can only imagine where we would be with climate change if Al Gore would have one and how 911 (if it had happened) would have been handled under his administration. Then, 2016 brings us Trump. I know you know that, but one issue voting is what brings us the unintended consequences.
There is advocacy to be done with a Biden administration - to argue for a different policy. There will be no advocacy for the Palestinians with a Trump Presidency - he and Bibi have a bromance going and that will not serve the interests of those who wish to protect the future of the Palestinians. I do not know why that message does not work. I am interested in your thoughts - not just to get their votes - also to keep someone in office who is at least willing to work for Palestinian statehood.
You are right - there's no question that Palestinian rights will be far worse under Trump. But I don't think we can start with that message. We can only talk about how bad Trump would be, on this and so many other issues, after coming to it from a positive message. Otherwise all we will hear from many of these people will be that we're arguing for the "lesser of two evils". I think we need to start with what we are FOR. That's why I hope we will soon be at a point where we can point to a ceasefire, proper humanitarian aid being delivered to Gaza, and real pressure on Israel towards a state for the Palestinians. Then we have an argument to make about how there is progress on this one issue, and that can be combined with all the other important issues on which Biden and Democrats are so much better.
I appreciate your input and ideas and thanks for all your hard work! Hoping for all of that. Did you read Thomas Friedman's column today about what he sees as the multiprong "Biden Doctrine"? It's a good read. I am planning on working in Michigan with groups there and there is a large Arab/Muslim population that feels strongly to the point of not voting or voting 3rd party. That's why I asked about messaging. The Muslim Ban is still being batted about in Trump's campaign promises as far as I know. This is so frightening.
I just read that column. And I agree with most of it. If the Biden administration were to enunciate this policy, and embark on it, we'd be a lot further forward, both in the Middle East and with the domestic politics of the issue. So I hope something like that is coming!
I want to make a couple of comments here, acknowledging this is an area of disagreement inside our family, and I have broadly backed Biden here while calling for more aggressive actions to oust Bibi.
1) There just isn't definitive data showing that the war has hurt Biden. As I showed in my post today we've actually had a very good week of polling, and polling in many high quality polls show no erosion for Biden with young people. This is all possible given how the war goes, but there has been a tendency among Biden's critics to cherry pick and misinterpret polls and exaggerate the impact of the war on his standing, or even what may happen in Michigan, something I also address in my post above. Yes we have work to do here no doubt, but to repeat - there isn't clear definitive data that the war has been a major problem for Biden or will hurt him this November.
2) Which leads me to my next point, and I am going to say this bluntly, I find the Vietnam war analogy to be ridiculous. The idea that that war, where tens of thousands of Americans died over many years, caused a national draft, etc is anything like what is happening in the Middle East today to be so a historical that I am literally astonished when I see it expressed. We are facing an existential crisis in our democracy right now, and Trump is openly aligned with Russian-Iranian-Hamas forces which seek genocide in Ukraine and Israel, are attacking our troops in the region, killed 29 Americans on October 7th killed and are working towards the ending of our democracy here. It is nothing like Vietnam, in any way.
3) I understand why people are upset with what is happening in the Middle East right now, but I think some of the criticism of Biden has been deeply unfair and overly simplistic, and the continued disruptions of our events rather than, for example, focusing protests around Trump and his proposals to arrest, put in detention camps and deport tens of millions of people living and working here in the US, or his Muslim ban, to be disappointing.
I appreciate the update, and yes we have work to do. But we also need to keep grounding this conversation in reality, out of respect for the President, the country and each other.
Thanks for the response, Simon. My point wasn't to say that this is like Vietnam, but rather to be aware that there's a lot of discontent on this issue out there, within our own family. And that issues that aren't adequately addressed can grow. So I hope that we don't take the position that because polling doesn't show this as making a big difference right now, it should be ignored. Of course, in the meantime we have a lot of other very important issues to address and campaign on. And we need to make that point to people unhappy about this one issue, while making it clear that we hear them.
I also wonder what happens with this issue as it becomes clear that the election is now Biden v Trump and the - wrong! - media narrative that "Trump is winning." Trump is much, much worse on Gaza (he supports flattening Gaza and enable Netanyahu and settlers). So, if you really care about Gaza, ceasefire and you think Trump could win, a protest vote against Biden for Trump (or for West) and staying home becomes much more problematic particularly, as a young person, if you also care about choice, gun controls, and climate. . Biden's Israel policy - one could argue - helps him electorally in that he is making it much harder for Trump to win on Israel (in those places where it matters, like South Florida and Penn) and he can still position himself as the anti Netanyahu candidate. Note - I am personally supportive of a cease fire but just don't think the full political picture is being considered in the current analysis of the Gaza protest vote impact on the general.
See my reply to Theressa above. All of what you say is true. But I just don't think it's effective to start from the "Trump is so much worse" argument, even if it's true. IMHO we need to start from the positive, and once we've made those points we can remind people how terrible Trump would be on that and so many other issues.
I want to be clear that I do not think, based on the data I've shared here over many months, that there is "a lot of discontent" on this issue in our own family. I think the discontent is very limited, but intensely felt; and on the flip side, many many Jews I know remain horrified by how far too often the critics of the President cross over into pro-Hamas, Jewish genocide language. Jewish voters are also a very important part of our coalition, and their concerns and views are seldomly considered in our internal debate about this.
Finally, as I have said repeatedly in my talks and in writing here I think we have a lot of work to do to address the concerns members of our family have about this challenging issue, but the critics of Biden on this issue continually exaggerate the level of concern/opposition inside our family, and it is deeply tiresome.
I live in the same media market as upstate SC, so I get a lot of SC news. I hadn't previously realized that in SC you don't declare your party affiliation. So for primaries everyone picks which one to vote in. SC Democratic primary is Saturday, but the GOP one is next month. NPR interviewed a SC guy urging Democrats to skip the Democratic primary and wait and vote in the GOP primary for Haley to keep her campaign viable for a while longer or at least try and diminish a Trump victory. If there is lower than expected turnout for the SC Democratic primary this weekend, this may be a factor.
Actually, I think voting for Haley makes sense since her attacks on Trump make Fox news. It also makes him even more unhinged.
Whenever a woman challenges Trump, he is more unhinged than usual. While he was in office, think Nancy Pelosi, Angela Merkel, Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris (when she was in the Senate and making mincemeat of Trump's cabinet nominees like Jeff Sessions). Oh and climate activist Greta Thunberg.
To that list you can now add all the female lawyers, prosecutors, and judges involved in legal actions against him and of course, Taylor Swift.
Probably really unnerved him when the woman's march occurred right after he took office. I couldn't go as I was working at a bookstore I managed, but I had those from the area who had attended to do a roundtable after discussing why women felt the need to attend, what they felt they accomplished and who they met from across the country. It was awesome!
And a heck of a lot of grassroots groups (powered mostly by women) were spawned that are still ongoing today - Swing Left, Indivisible,...
And the Dobbs decision has spurred even more grass roots activism. And I don't think it is going away anytime soon!
Have you had a chance to see the Navigator Research poll on Congress? From what I read about it, it looks very good for team blue, at least in battleground districts. A little concerned about the recent news in NYC where a police officer was beat up by asylum seekers; it's all I'm hearing about in the Metro area. Mostly being pushed by Fox, NY Post, Washington Examiner, the usual suspects. Wonder if it will affect Tom Suozzi race...I'm a little superstitious about donating because any candidate I ever gave to went on to lose! Only thing though is that Tom's opponent seems like a train wreck and is not even a registered republican from what I have read.
I have some questions about current polls. it seems to me that a lot of voters have left the GOP - maybe wish casting, but I don't know. Do you have numbers on how many R's vs D's in the US now compared with 2020? When polls are taken, how do they adjust their numbers? based on current estimates (ie. percentage of GOP, D, independents) or 2020, 2022? If current, how do they get the estimates?
I came here to recommend Rick Wilson's interview with Stuart Stevens from last week (https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/the-dark-shadow-of-trump). Very funny and very informative. But to somewhat answer your question, one takeaway they discussed from the Iowa caucus (and may be useful going forward): 68% of the self-identified Iowa Republicans are MEN. Where does that leave the party if women are abandoning it in droves?
Here's what Gallup says from their polling:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
Simin… I read your posts daily … you give me so much positive info to pass on to others. Love the cartoon… the old one picture is better than 1000 words!!! G
I'd like to mention the wonderful speech my Senator Angus King (I-ME) made last night on the floor of the Senate, concerning the importance of our funding Ukraine. You may have seen a reference to it in Heather Cox Richardson's newsletter today. King's speech is well worth reading, & you can probably find it on CSpan.
Yes it was a great speech. Heather's write up was also very good. I spend a lot of time in ME in summer, fishing the Belgrade lakes while enjoying the free concerts across the lake at the New England Music Camp. Actually bumped into LePaige last summer at Marden's, the store he used to manage. I was polite.....
Post carding for Tom Souzzi definitely helped keep me sane & just felt damn good ! Note to self : buy more postage !!!
"I express doubt that Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war will be as damaging to him as some say. Note this data point from Economist/YouGov this week. The % of 18-29 year olds who say their most important issue is “foreign policy” is zero."
I still don't buy into the threats that young voters are turned off because of what is happening in Israel & Gaza. Heck, even older voters don't pay that much attention to foreign policy.
Onward to November.
I was at a fundraiser last night (for Raul GriJava) and got into the standard “OMG, Trump winning I am going to have to leave the country” conversation with some friends, fellow Dems, campaigners (yet again!) and it spurred some thoughts to share, FWIW and would appreciate other advice, thoughts on how to best “win” these conversations.
1. People don’t hear what we are saying right away. They are coming from a place of fear. An irrational place. So, repetition, reassurance and listening is important. We need to calm them down. Let them talk. Give them a way out. If they internalize one or two “Hopium” points that’s a win.
2. People - even pros (especially them!) - are trained to believe polls, 538. So saying “polls don’t work” or “other polls show Biden is winning” is a tough argument to win. What works is to say the polls show things are tied in the battlegrounds (margin of error!) but the other signs are really good - winning elections, money, trump issues (that allows us to throw in positive details). So, we have work to do but are in a good place.
3. Simon’s positive framing really works. People really like hearing “Joe Biden is a good President.” No one wants to be scared and giving a positive narrative is reassuring and almost everyone likes it (even if they are going to go back to the place of fear). As a note, I was at the Anderson Clayton fundraiser earlier this week and Simon led with that line for his talk and it completely changed the Vibe in the room.
4. Talking about Anderson Clayton and Ben Winkler and local heroes and expanding the map works. It moves the conversation away from polls, fear and to specifics to forward looking ideas.
5.. i can’t believe we have to have these conversations (over and over again!) but we do and it is fun/satifying when it works.
Keep on trucking!
It's pleasant to experience optimism based on your enthusiasm. But much of the electorate is not educated to facts and doesn't change beliefs easily. When you hear ambivalent voters even Democrats, they describe a disconnect with Biden... age, generation, likelihood of death or incapacity, the Palestinian issue, cost of living...they don't "feel" the good statistics, some even fantasize that the "businessman" Trump would be better for the economy. I heard Biden messaging about the economy in S.Carolina , it was dry and unmoving...The campaign has a challenge to make a candidate, who is a good man and President, but lacks charisma, rise to the challenge of a demagogue...In my view the campaign is failing miserably.