Republican Performance Problems Persist, Good Biden Polling, A New Lawrence Appearance
Early Vote Starts Saturday in NY-3 - Please Donate, Volunteer Today!!!!!!!!
Friends, got a few things for you today:
Good New Biden Polling Data, I Would Rather Be Us Than Them - A few caveats here: 1) Polling isn’t predictive. Can only tell you where things are today. 2) It’s early, and polling is all over the place right now. It is not all pointing in the same direction. What I see is a close, competitive election. Most national polls have the race within margin of error so essentially tied. It is wrong to suggest that Trump leads or has any kind of advantage. He does in some polls, but Biden leads in others.
Let’s get to it. All polls cited here can be found on 538:
Quinnipiac - Biden leads 50-44 (+6), up 5 points since December
Economist/YouGov - Biden leads 43-42, up 2 points since last week
Morning Consult - Biden trails 44-42, but up 3 points since last week
3 polls this week find movement towards Biden. Is it a trend, or just bouncy polling? We will see in the coming days. But remember, we also have these recent polls in key states showing Biden outperforming his 2020 results:
Michigan - Target Insyght, Biden 45-41 (+4). Biden won MI by 2.8 pts in 2020.
New Hampshire - USA Today/Suffolk, Biden 42-34 (+8). Marist Biden 52-45 (+7). Biden won NH by 7.4 points in 2020.
Pennsylvania - Susquehanna, Biden 47-39 (+8). Quinnipiac, Biden 49-46 (+3). Biden won PA by 1.2 pts in 2020.
Some other data, insights, analyses:
Moody’s 2024 forecast has Biden winning, and winning North Carolina!
In this recent analysis I express doubt that Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war will be as damaging to him as some say. Note this data point from Economist/YouGov this week. The % of 18-29 year olds who say their most important issue is “foreign policy” is zero.
In this analysis I show that some of the recent, best, large sample polls of Hispanics and young people find Biden at or near his 2020 results - so no meaningful erosion in these high quality polls. In this big, comprehensive analysis of the Hispanic vote I show that it is Republicans, not Democrats, who are seeing erosion with Hispanic voters. And for those who worry Democrats have lost the working class vote I share his chart from the 2020 Exit polls which shows the opposite:
So, where are we? I am okay with where we are. Some of our coalition is wandering now but much of it will come back in the coming months as people come to realize it really is Trump vs Biden. Then we have a big campaign to go get back the rest, and if we work hard get to 55 and make this election what it needs to be - a clear national repudiation of MAGA.
If you missed it be sure to read my analysis from earlier this week, The Democratic Party Is Strong and Winning Elections All Across The US. When you can watch the core Hopium presentation, With Democrats, Things Get Better. Both will leave you with a bit more pep in your step.
I reviewed a lot of this data on Lawrence last night:
GOP Performance Problems Persist - Let’s talk about them for a bit:
Most unfit, damaged, deranged nominee in our history. GOP taking huge, unprecedented risk rallying behind him
Embrace of extreme, dangerous positions pushing them further away from an electorate already not into them
Lost 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections, struggle has intensified since Dobbs.
Anemic IA turnout, Trump underperformed public NH polls by 10-15 points. Big yikes.
Ended Roe, tried to end American democracy for all time - 2 new, post 2020 issues, each of which could keep them out of power for decades
Dozens of party leaders across the US, incl RNC Chair, part of illegal scheme to overturn US election. Dozens have been indicted, more to come. Dysfunction, struggle, financial problems we are seeing in GOP national and state parties right now unprecedented in modern era.
Lots of evidence that like in 2022 Trump and MAGA candidates will struggle in 2024 to bring non-MAGA part of their coalition along, causing the party to splinter. NeverTrumpers like Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney could play a huge role in 2024, be most consequential third party/rogue party movement this year
Trump is burning through incredible amounts of money, Olympian levels of ongoing legal bills. GOP Senate candidate struggling to raise money/lots of contentious primaries. House Rs worst Congressional leadership in many generations, maybe ever.
DeSantis, the heir apparent, flames out, spectacularly. GOP bench is thin, embarrassing, Star Wars bar level shitshow
Can we beat these guys in 2024, get to 55? Sure we can - but only if we do the work, peeps.
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - In our 2024 spirit of growth and expansion, I’m encouraging members of the Hopium community to get involved and take an action in four campaigns and projects, below. A hearty thank you to the thousands here who’ve already donated, volunteered or spread some Hopium:
Flip NY-3 - Tom Suozzi leads in the early polls and will win if we give Tom the resources and volunteers he needs. The election is Feb. 13th and early voting starts Saturday so please take an action to help Tom today! If you want to learn more watch my interview with Tom from last week, and take an action here:
Elect Joe And Kamala, Beat Trump - Please donate to Biden-Harris today, join the campaign and start planning for what you will do to help them spread their message through your networks and win the core 7 battlegrounds AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI. Beating Trump is Job 1 this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Get Early Resources to North Carolina, Our Most Important 2024 Expansion State - Our number one Presidential battleground expansion opportunity this year is North Carolina, and I am encouraging the Hopium community to support the Democratic Party of North Carolina and its dynamic new chair, Anderson Clayton. Watch my recent interview with Anderson and learn how to donate and volunteer here. Help us turn Carolina blue!
Spread Hopium - Help me bring Hopium to more people this year. Our goal is to get to 50,000 total subscribers by March 31st (we are at 35,000 today). Please encourage others in your network to sign up and become part of this wonderful community of proud patriots and info warriors today!
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections across the country. And they have Trump.
Let’s keep kicking their ass, together - Simon