Trump taking over the RNC to pay his legal bills is the last nail in the coffin of the GOP. He screws up everything he touches, and the RNC will be one of his last messes. I wonder if Liz Cheney, Mitt, etc. will be able to build a party back, or if a completely new one will rise somehow. We need another viable party in the US, although I'll never leave the Dems.
I think the decisive nail in the coffin of the MAGA-Republican party will be a Blue Tsunami in November, up and down the ballot – if we all work very, very hard.
Field Team 6 (fieldteam6.org) has recently uploaded more addresses to their postcard system in lots of key states and districts, including NC and AZ. They also have lots of phone numbers for their BYOP texting program.
I think we need to put some effort into registering new voters. I know FT6's NC campaign is geared towards women and the script leans heavily on repro rights. Some other campaigns are geared at older people and may speak about prescription drug prices or the GOP's war on Social Security.
I think he is doing the party loyalists a favor by destroying the brand completely! Any one who stays with him, who votes "R" just because of the "R", can be left behind. I do not think it can be salvaged or rebuilt. I think Liz and Mitt and other actual conservatives (policy, principle, over cult) may well need to start a real third party that is the old conservative party. It has happened before. It may give us a third viable party but that may be okay.
The one thing we cannot let happen is for the current RNC/MAGA to take any majority office this year! Esp at the federal level!
With gerrymandering that might be a challenge at the state level. I live in NC and I will be satisfied if Democrats win for statewide office and if we can break the GOP supermajority in the state legislature.
Speaking of which, Donald just royally screwed himself. Consider this quote:
"Through hard work, talent, and luck, I currently have almost 500 million dollars in cash, a substantial amount of which I intended to use in my campaign for president."
.
The problem, of course, as I am sure NY Attorney General Laetitia James is well aware, is that if Trump has $ 500 million in cash on hand, his lawyers cannot reasonable plead that he is unable to pay his $ 464 million bond.
Wonderful! Ruben Gallego is a great candidate and we need him as the next Senator from Arizona. He’ll be a huge upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema.
Moreover, it is vitally important to defeat Kari Lake, one of the most sincere yet photogenic fascists running for Senate this November.
While I am confident Democrats will retake the House (and with a big majority), we also need to keep the Senate. If not, Biden’s policies will be seriously impeded, as will confirmation of his judicial and other nominations. That would be especially problematic if vacancies open on SCOTUS during the next four years.
Leonard Leo and his right-wing allies have captured the Supreme Court and remade much of America’s judicial system to serve un-American corporate and reactionary interest. (Senator Whitehouse has an ongoing Senate lecture series on this, plus numerous articles.) To protect their achievement, the Koch Network and other billionaires are now investing serious dark money in this year’s Senate races. Turning the Senate Red is a top priority for them – holding the Senate must be a top priority for Democrats!
If we could only have one house of Congress, which is more important? (I'm in a state where my senators are not in much danger but the House is split.)
If I had to choose, I would pick the Senate – ideally with at least a three-seat majority. Precisely because it is so vital to be able to confirm President Biden’s judges, especially to the appellate courts and the Supreme Court, and nominations in the executive branch as well.
I agree 100% about retaking the House, and I believe that Joe will win. But I'm very worried about the Senate. Now that Larry Hogan is in the MD Senate race, that seat is on the line, and it could be the tipping point. The map just doesn't favor Ds. Do we have a shot in Texas? In Florida? How do we do this?
Colin Allred is a strong candidate and the party has been getting funding during the Trump years, so it is a stretch but possible. The biggest factor is getting non-voters registered in Texas.
The problem for both candidates is likeability which neither hold an advantage. Ruben can come across harsh and a complete a hole while Kari is aloof and demeaning. Kyrsten had that all wrapped up and if had chose to run, she would have won...
I don't even dislike Kyrsten. I just think she would even describe herself as disagreeable or stubborn. We all have friends like that, and that is fine, and can be enduring, I just don't want that in a Democratic Senator. Or if they are like that I want those energies to be put to fighting Republican efforts.
Chris we have a very low tolerance for this kind of commentary here. No gratuitous insults, and of course the idea she would have won if she ran is ridiculous. Keep it clean, smart and data-driven, respectful. Thank you.
My apologies for the poor choice of words with regard to Mr. Gallego...and Ms Lake...
But take whatever descriptions you prefer - neither of Gallego nor Lake are likeable people. I live in AZ. I know. And, Kyrsten Sinema is well liked by anyone who isn't hard left or hard right... She had the middle wide open to her and $10 million and decent polling on her side. She absolutely could have made a good run and won. That's the truth.
Gallego and Lake have the same problem and it will be interesting if either of them can overcome that problem before the general...
Ruben was as interviewed for a Swing Left Strategy Zoom I attended a couple of weeks ago and he came across similar to last night's meeting. A no nonsense guy (as many ex-military are iknown to be) who is willing to put the hard work into his campaign by meeting the constituents where they are (even when it puts thousands of miles on their car) and listening to their issues.
There are way too many GOP candidates who just want to smooze with the big donors and cut slick TV ads. I would put Kari Lake in that camp with an added layer of conspiracy craziness/eelction denial. I will have to admit to some schadenfreude if we can elect Ruben and make Kari Lake a two-time loser!
"Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely." I can see how it can also reveal one's character. I am always sensitive to how a representative/senator changes once in DC.
I loved your interview with Rubin Gallego. I just forwarded it to a friend in Arizona who is frustrated with their crazy politics. I cannot stress enough how refreshing it is to have candidates commuted to getting things done rather than endlessly grandstanding, gaslighting, and squabbling over ideologies. Biden understands this. “From the bottom up and the middle out.”
Ruben is a great candidate. His talk goes beyond his candidacy and the 2024 election. It provides a blueprint for setting up a grassroots movement and how to start a political career.
I'm so excited to hear from Ruben! I was unable to make it last night. While I am already donating to his campaign monthly because of Hopium, I will go increase that commitment. Thank you, Gallego! Thank you, thank you, thank you!
Both HC Zoom sessions on 3/21 were outstanding. R Gallego has humanity and talent. Because it's 2024, that stands out. Your signature presentation was a huge service, brilliant and inspiring. Thank you for both.
Hey Simon. You are doing great work. But still, I wish you were more consistent about polling. If we’re down, you say it is irrelevant. If we’re up, it’s a big deal. Detracts from your credibility.
Sam, happy to engage this question if you delete this and rephrase it in a way that doesn't question my integrity. If one of us is confused about what I am doing here it is not likely to be me.
He says to go right at it with "abortion," not "choice." bluecd2nm tends to go with "freedom" or "women's rights" in our posts. He probably knows best, but I would love to get Simon's take.
Hey Simon. I’m a fan and I don't question your integrity. My observation is that a few weeks ago, you were saying polls this early are irrelevant. Now polls in our favor seem to be given lots of attention. I think that is an accurate observation.
I've never said polls are irrelevant. More data is always good. But polls are not predictive, they can only tell you what is happening today. And I've argued, again and again, that I felt that we had a lot of other data and information that needed to inform our assessment of the political landscape and not center our understanding of the election around polling. The things folks like me also look at is fundraising, quality of the team, win/loss track record, candidate performance/bio/arguments, etc. Most of the newsletter goes into each of these other areas of analysis and understandings. And it is my assessment that Joe Biden is a much stronger candidate than Donald Trump, regardless of where the polls are today, when the Biden campaign hasn't turned on, when our voters have not had a primary; and what I have argued, again and again, is that it was my belief that once the campaign turned on, and our voters understand it was Biden vs. Trump that Biden would gain a few points and we would be in a more comfortable position. The way I've described it is that some of our wandering coalition would come home and then we had a campaign to go get the rest. That where we were was like being at the end of the first quarter of a basketball game with the game tied, or the other side up a point or two. Now what we are seeing in polls is across the movement for Biden, and that's both good and what I suggested would happen. To stay in the analogy it's like a basketball team being on a run and scoring a few unanswered points. Doesn't mean we are going to win - long way to go, lots of work to do - but let's acknowledge the progress being made.
Finally, I wish I could write and talk about polls less. But it is part of our discourse, and I will try to explain what I am seeing as accurately as I can. People who are argue polling is irrelevant, or the only polls that matter are battleground state polls, etc are just wrong. All data matters. All data tells you something, helps you understand where you are. What I am trying to do here is help you understand it as I do. And in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them regardless of what wobbly and struggling polls tell us right now.
Thanks for this further (or reiterated?) explanation, Simon! I wish I could somehow pin it to find it again. I'll try a copy and paste instead. I am trying to avoid polling data until Sept or so when it might set my hair on fire. Meanwhile I live it to you and Sarah Longwell to keep me apprised of the snapshots. I do appreciate seeing a broader picture.
You said it! This is always a challenge - especially when I used to refresh 538 every couple of minutes as recently as the 2022 midterms! I too will be avoiding polling data - at least at non-hopium outlets! We can do it!
AGreed! When I saw Simon's recent poll summary I thought "Good; he was spot on about that" and paid no more attention. Do more, worry less -- great motto!!!
If I may… I recall Simon voicing several caveats about polls:
1) Polls this far from November should not be given undue credence.
2) Polls provide just one type of data point. They must be analyzed in the context of other facts such as the strength of grass-roots GOTV work, campaign contributions, the improving economy – and rise in individual economic confidence.
3) The Dobbs decision, Trump’s legal problems, Trump’s and the RNC’s low cash holdings, etc etc etc
4) Consistent Democratic over-performance in elections these last two years.
5) Add to this the Republican resistance against Trump, underscored by polls showing a large portion of Haley voters intend to vote for Biden.
6) The campaigns are just starting – and the Biden Campaign will emphasize all of the above, and more.
.
Simon has predicted a swing toward Biden in the polls. Lo and behold, this is precisely what we are seeing!
.
Edit: Simon, we posted simultaneously. If you want me to remove my post as superfluous, I will gladly do so.
So it's time to start thinking about how to help and for me that means postcard campaigns. My question is whether it is more useful to pick one or two states, like AZ and NC, and focus on them, or to pick several states, PA/WI/MI/NC/AZ, and send some to each. Any thoughts, anyone?
Maybe prioritize swings if campaigns are available. But writing ANYWHERE is helpful for Dems. First because we want the poplar vote to be a slam dunk exclamation point of the electoral. But second and more importantly, we. NEED to (Simon says “gain territory”) so whether it is VBM campaign I am doing in Florida as I type or some other down ballot Dem campaign in a red district.... we need to pull the ‘wondering family back together’ and ANY contact in ANY form COUNTS! Keep up the good work!
After watching this video I am very hopeful and confident that Ruben will be successful in Arizona. I expect the Democratic Party in Arizona to do very well as a whole. I can see putting resources behind them. And I would like to send postcards or whatever. What I do wonder about is whether there is any play in Florida. Rick Scott seems to be a terrible candidate and Debbie Mucarsel - Powell is very energetic and sounds good when I see her on the last word. She also has a lot of requests for support on Twitter. Another couple races I am following are the Texcas and Missouri ones. Is it worth putting any of our energy and dollars there?
Thank you for the Zoom, Simon. Great discussion w/Ruben! Always enjoy hearing someone's backstory. This Arizonian will be thrilled to have Ruben represent us in the Senate. Signed up for monthly donation early on.
Simon, I would love to get your opinion on how this might impact Trump and whether the Dems can leverage it as more evidence of Trump's ginormous corruption.
Trump taking over the RNC to pay his legal bills is the last nail in the coffin of the GOP. He screws up everything he touches, and the RNC will be one of his last messes. I wonder if Liz Cheney, Mitt, etc. will be able to build a party back, or if a completely new one will rise somehow. We need another viable party in the US, although I'll never leave the Dems.
I think the decisive nail in the coffin of the MAGA-Republican party will be a Blue Tsunami in November, up and down the ballot – if we all work very, very hard.
Field Team 6 (fieldteam6.org) has recently uploaded more addresses to their postcard system in lots of key states and districts, including NC and AZ. They also have lots of phone numbers for their BYOP texting program.
I think we need to put some effort into registering new voters. I know FT6's NC campaign is geared towards women and the script leans heavily on repro rights. Some other campaigns are geared at older people and may speak about prescription drug prices or the GOP's war on Social Security.
Thanks for info Cheryl- my friend and I recently sent 200 Pa postcards off and are looking for next choice: either Az or NC sound good.
I think he is doing the party loyalists a favor by destroying the brand completely! Any one who stays with him, who votes "R" just because of the "R", can be left behind. I do not think it can be salvaged or rebuilt. I think Liz and Mitt and other actual conservatives (policy, principle, over cult) may well need to start a real third party that is the old conservative party. It has happened before. It may give us a third viable party but that may be okay.
The one thing we cannot let happen is for the current RNC/MAGA to take any majority office this year! Esp at the federal level!
With gerrymandering that might be a challenge at the state level. I live in NC and I will be satisfied if Democrats win for statewide office and if we can break the GOP supermajority in the state legislature.
Things take time. As I understand it, best case scenario is that it will take a few years to win back North Carolina’s State Supreme Court.
Great cartoon by Mike Luckovich!
"When you’re the law, they let you do it – Grab ’em by their assets!"
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/22/2230729/-Cartoon-Grab-em
.
Speaking of which, Donald just royally screwed himself. Consider this quote:
"Through hard work, talent, and luck, I currently have almost 500 million dollars in cash, a substantial amount of which I intended to use in my campaign for president."
.
The problem, of course, as I am sure NY Attorney General Laetitia James is well aware, is that if Trump has $ 500 million in cash on hand, his lawyers cannot reasonable plead that he is unable to pay his $ 464 million bond.
Oooops!
.
I'm just crazy about Luckovich, but somehow missed this one, so thanks for posting, AS!
Wonderful! Ruben Gallego is a great candidate and we need him as the next Senator from Arizona. He’ll be a huge upgrade from Kyrsten Sinema.
Moreover, it is vitally important to defeat Kari Lake, one of the most sincere yet photogenic fascists running for Senate this November.
While I am confident Democrats will retake the House (and with a big majority), we also need to keep the Senate. If not, Biden’s policies will be seriously impeded, as will confirmation of his judicial and other nominations. That would be especially problematic if vacancies open on SCOTUS during the next four years.
Leonard Leo and his right-wing allies have captured the Supreme Court and remade much of America’s judicial system to serve un-American corporate and reactionary interest. (Senator Whitehouse has an ongoing Senate lecture series on this, plus numerous articles.) To protect their achievement, the Koch Network and other billionaires are now investing serious dark money in this year’s Senate races. Turning the Senate Red is a top priority for them – holding the Senate must be a top priority for Democrats!
.
If we could only have one house of Congress, which is more important? (I'm in a state where my senators are not in much danger but the House is split.)
If I had to choose, I would pick the Senate – ideally with at least a three-seat majority. Precisely because it is so vital to be able to confirm President Biden’s judges, especially to the appellate courts and the Supreme Court, and nominations in the executive branch as well.
I agree 100% about retaking the House, and I believe that Joe will win. But I'm very worried about the Senate. Now that Larry Hogan is in the MD Senate race, that seat is on the line, and it could be the tipping point. The map just doesn't favor Ds. Do we have a shot in Texas? In Florida? How do we do this?
Colin Allred is a strong candidate and the party has been getting funding during the Trump years, so it is a stretch but possible. The biggest factor is getting non-voters registered in Texas.
The problem for both candidates is likeability which neither hold an advantage. Ruben can come across harsh and a complete a hole while Kari is aloof and demeaning. Kyrsten had that all wrapped up and if had chose to run, she would have won...
I would never have described Kyrsten as likeable. Ruben just seems like a real dude, if you ask me.
Didn’t take her too long to reveal her actual awful self.
I don't even dislike Kyrsten. I just think she would even describe herself as disagreeable or stubborn. We all have friends like that, and that is fine, and can be enduring, I just don't want that in a Democratic Senator. Or if they are like that I want those energies to be put to fighting Republican efforts.
Chris we have a very low tolerance for this kind of commentary here. No gratuitous insults, and of course the idea she would have won if she ran is ridiculous. Keep it clean, smart and data-driven, respectful. Thank you.
My apologies for the poor choice of words with regard to Mr. Gallego...and Ms Lake...
But take whatever descriptions you prefer - neither of Gallego nor Lake are likeable people. I live in AZ. I know. And, Kyrsten Sinema is well liked by anyone who isn't hard left or hard right... She had the middle wide open to her and $10 million and decent polling on her side. She absolutely could have made a good run and won. That's the truth.
Gallego and Lake have the same problem and it will be interesting if either of them can overcome that problem before the general...
After watching this video, I can say confidently that Ruben is likeable. Have you met him in person? Who do you like?
Ruben was as interviewed for a Swing Left Strategy Zoom I attended a couple of weeks ago and he came across similar to last night's meeting. A no nonsense guy (as many ex-military are iknown to be) who is willing to put the hard work into his campaign by meeting the constituents where they are (even when it puts thousands of miles on their car) and listening to their issues.
There are way too many GOP candidates who just want to smooze with the big donors and cut slick TV ads. I would put Kari Lake in that camp with an added layer of conspiracy craziness/eelction denial. I will have to admit to some schadenfreude if we can elect Ruben and make Kari Lake a two-time loser!
100% agree!
I thought she came across as an exhibitionist and opportunist but I didn't pay close attention.
I think those two characteristics changed Sinema from the person and candidate she once was.
"Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely." I can see how it can also reveal one's character. I am always sensitive to how a representative/senator changes once in DC.
I loved your interview with Rubin Gallego. I just forwarded it to a friend in Arizona who is frustrated with their crazy politics. I cannot stress enough how refreshing it is to have candidates commuted to getting things done rather than endlessly grandstanding, gaslighting, and squabbling over ideologies. Biden understands this. “From the bottom up and the middle out.”
Every morning when I read the Hopium Chronicles I say to myself, "God Bless Simon!" He has given me hope and energy to geet this election right.
Ruben is a great candidate. His talk goes beyond his candidacy and the 2024 election. It provides a blueprint for setting up a grassroots movement and how to start a political career.
I'm so excited to hear from Ruben! I was unable to make it last night. While I am already donating to his campaign monthly because of Hopium, I will go increase that commitment. Thank you, Gallego! Thank you, thank you, thank you!
Both HC Zoom sessions on 3/21 were outstanding. R Gallego has humanity and talent. Because it's 2024, that stands out. Your signature presentation was a huge service, brilliant and inspiring. Thank you for both.
Hey Simon. You are doing great work. But still, I wish you were more consistent about polling. If we’re down, you say it is irrelevant. If we’re up, it’s a big deal. Detracts from your credibility.
Sam, happy to engage this question if you delete this and rephrase it in a way that doesn't question my integrity. If one of us is confused about what I am doing here it is not likely to be me.
Gallego is great and will be greater.
He says to go right at it with "abortion," not "choice." bluecd2nm tends to go with "freedom" or "women's rights" in our posts. He probably knows best, but I would love to get Simon's take.
Hey Simon. I’m a fan and I don't question your integrity. My observation is that a few weeks ago, you were saying polls this early are irrelevant. Now polls in our favor seem to be given lots of attention. I think that is an accurate observation.
I've never said polls are irrelevant. More data is always good. But polls are not predictive, they can only tell you what is happening today. And I've argued, again and again, that I felt that we had a lot of other data and information that needed to inform our assessment of the political landscape and not center our understanding of the election around polling. The things folks like me also look at is fundraising, quality of the team, win/loss track record, candidate performance/bio/arguments, etc. Most of the newsletter goes into each of these other areas of analysis and understandings. And it is my assessment that Joe Biden is a much stronger candidate than Donald Trump, regardless of where the polls are today, when the Biden campaign hasn't turned on, when our voters have not had a primary; and what I have argued, again and again, is that it was my belief that once the campaign turned on, and our voters understand it was Biden vs. Trump that Biden would gain a few points and we would be in a more comfortable position. The way I've described it is that some of our wandering coalition would come home and then we had a campaign to go get the rest. That where we were was like being at the end of the first quarter of a basketball game with the game tied, or the other side up a point or two. Now what we are seeing in polls is across the movement for Biden, and that's both good and what I suggested would happen. To stay in the analogy it's like a basketball team being on a run and scoring a few unanswered points. Doesn't mean we are going to win - long way to go, lots of work to do - but let's acknowledge the progress being made.
Finally, I wish I could write and talk about polls less. But it is part of our discourse, and I will try to explain what I am seeing as accurately as I can. People who are argue polling is irrelevant, or the only polls that matter are battleground state polls, etc are just wrong. All data matters. All data tells you something, helps you understand where you are. What I am trying to do here is help you understand it as I do. And in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them regardless of what wobbly and struggling polls tell us right now.
Thanks for this further (or reiterated?) explanation, Simon! I wish I could somehow pin it to find it again. I'll try a copy and paste instead. I am trying to avoid polling data until Sept or so when it might set my hair on fire. Meanwhile I live it to you and Sarah Longwell to keep me apprised of the snapshots. I do appreciate seeing a broader picture.
You said it! This is always a challenge - especially when I used to refresh 538 every couple of minutes as recently as the 2022 midterms! I too will be avoiding polling data - at least at non-hopium outlets! We can do it!
AGreed! When I saw Simon's recent poll summary I thought "Good; he was spot on about that" and paid no more attention. Do more, worry less -- great motto!!!
If I may… I recall Simon voicing several caveats about polls:
1) Polls this far from November should not be given undue credence.
2) Polls provide just one type of data point. They must be analyzed in the context of other facts such as the strength of grass-roots GOTV work, campaign contributions, the improving economy – and rise in individual economic confidence.
3) The Dobbs decision, Trump’s legal problems, Trump’s and the RNC’s low cash holdings, etc etc etc
4) Consistent Democratic over-performance in elections these last two years.
5) Add to this the Republican resistance against Trump, underscored by polls showing a large portion of Haley voters intend to vote for Biden.
6) The campaigns are just starting – and the Biden Campaign will emphasize all of the above, and more.
.
Simon has predicted a swing toward Biden in the polls. Lo and behold, this is precisely what we are seeing!
.
Edit: Simon, we posted simultaneously. If you want me to remove my post as superfluous, I will gladly do so.
.
Leave it, it is on point! (-;
The Georgia primaries seem to show blacks aren't migrating to trump also
Yes! Well said. I look forward to your carrying on doing what you do.
So it's time to start thinking about how to help and for me that means postcard campaigns. My question is whether it is more useful to pick one or two states, like AZ and NC, and focus on them, or to pick several states, PA/WI/MI/NC/AZ, and send some to each. Any thoughts, anyone?
Maybe prioritize swings if campaigns are available. But writing ANYWHERE is helpful for Dems. First because we want the poplar vote to be a slam dunk exclamation point of the electoral. But second and more importantly, we. NEED to (Simon says “gain territory”) so whether it is VBM campaign I am doing in Florida as I type or some other down ballot Dem campaign in a red district.... we need to pull the ‘wondering family back together’ and ANY contact in ANY form COUNTS! Keep up the good work!
After watching this video I am very hopeful and confident that Ruben will be successful in Arizona. I expect the Democratic Party in Arizona to do very well as a whole. I can see putting resources behind them. And I would like to send postcards or whatever. What I do wonder about is whether there is any play in Florida. Rick Scott seems to be a terrible candidate and Debbie Mucarsel - Powell is very energetic and sounds good when I see her on the last word. She also has a lot of requests for support on Twitter. Another couple races I am following are the Texcas and Missouri ones. Is it worth putting any of our energy and dollars there?
Thank you for the Zoom, Simon. Great discussion w/Ruben! Always enjoy hearing someone's backstory. This Arizonian will be thrilled to have Ruben represent us in the Senate. Signed up for monthly donation early on.
For those of you who don't subscribe to Jay Kuo's substack, today's article is a doozy:
https://open.substack.com/pub/statuskuo/p/the-publicly-traded-presidential?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Simon, I would love to get your opinion on how this might impact Trump and whether the Dems can leverage it as more evidence of Trump's ginormous corruption.