Friends,
We had a great discussion with Ruben Gallego last night. A recording is above, and I hope you’ll watch. Ruben is an old friend, and in addition to updating us on his race, he talks about the long project he has helped lead which has instrumental in the bluing of Arizona over the past 15 or so years.
I hope all of you will consider donating to Ruben before his March 31st deadline. Recent polls are encouraging, but because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long he’s a bit behind with money and organization. Your money and volunteer time goes a long way in Arizona - Presidential battleground state, Senate open seat, 2 House races and up for grabs state legislative chambers. Like in North Carolina, the wild extremism of leading AZ Republicans, including his opponent, Kari Lake, is giving us a remarkable opportunity to rack up big, consequential wins in Arizona this year. With our support today and in the months ahead his people-powered campaign can become the engine for that drives victories across the state and up and down the ticket - and make 2024 a truly historic year in Arizona.
So hope you will watch this great interview, donate to his campaign and sign up to volunteer. We’ve already raised $78,000 for Ruben. Amazing stuff - thank you all! My goal is to get to $100,000 by March 31st. Excited about this race and hope you will join me in helping Ruben (below, in Iraq) get it done this year.
9 Recent Polls Show Biden With A Lead - Joe Biden is in the midst of his best run of polling in some time. 6 post-State Of The Union polls show him with leads: (all via 538):
44-43 Economist/YouGov (new since yesterday)
47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
44-43 Morning Consult (March 9-11)
46-45 Public Policy Research
50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
45-44 Civiqs
And 3 more had him with leads prior to the State Of The Union:
47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
51-49 Emerson
43-42 TIPP
The Economist poll average continues to have Biden 1 point ahead of Trump:
We’ve also seen a 4 point jump in Biden’s approval rating in the 538 average this week. You can see the trend lines below. It’s encouraging.
We’ve got a long way to go in this race but we are seeing clear evidence of positive movement in national polling for the President, and it’s great to see.
Team Biden released a new digital ad this morning:
Ahead of tomorrow’s anniversary of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Team Biden-Harris released “Flatline”, a new digital ad hitting Donald Trump for his repeated promises to repeal the landmark law. The spot underscores the tragic consequences that would result from Trump’s commitment to “terminate” the life saving legislation.
Starting tomorrow on the anniversary of the passage of the ACA, “Flatline” will run on digital platforms including Meta, YouTube, and connected TV in English and Spanish across our battleground states.
Look At This Headline - LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The AP on how crazy this all is:
Donald Trump’s new joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut, according to a fundraising invitation obtained by The Associated Press.
The unorthodox diversion of funds to the Save America PAC makes it more likely that Republican donors could see their money go to Trump’s lawyers, who have received at least $76 million over the last two years to defend him against four felony indictments and multiple civil cases. Some Republicans are already troubled that Trump’s takeover of the RNC could shortchange the cash-strapped party.
Trump has invited high-dollar donors to Palm Beach, Florida, for an April 6 fundraiser that comes as his fundraising is well behind President Joe Biden and national Democrats. The invitation’s fine print says donations to the Trump 47 Committee will first be used to give the maximum amount allowed under federal law to Trump’s campaign. Anything left over from the donation next goes toward a maximum contribution to Save America, and then anything left from there goes to the RNC and then to state political parties.
Adav Noti, the executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center in Washington, said that is a break from fundraising norms. Usually, Noti said, candidates prioritize raising cash that can be spent directly on campaign activity. Save America, on the other hand, is structured as a “leadership PAC” and thus barred from spending directly on Trump’s own campaign activities. Legal spending made up 85% of Save America’s total operating expenses during the first two months of this year, roughly the same as 2023, when such expenses were about 89%. It has spent $8.5 million on legal fees so far this year.
“The reason most candidates don’t do this is because the hardest money to raise is money that can be spent directly on the campaign,” said Noti, a former staff attorney for the Federal Election Commission. “No other candidate has used a leadership PAC the way the Trump campaign has.”
No other Presidential candidate has been a serial criminal and traitor to the country, either. Trump 2024 is a raging dumpster fire…..
With Democrats, Things Get Better - We had some technical problems yesterday so there isn’t a recording of a March With Dems. I will be showing it again mid-April, and will have a date and time to share with you soon. Apologies all around. Am breaking in a new computer and things went awry yesterday. Sh— happens!
Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - New resources for your viewing, listening and reading pleasure:
Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - Biden Leads in 6 New Polls, The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him
The “Trump Is A Strong Candidate” Bubble Is Bursting, The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’
Video Presentations - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election, Hopium’s 1st Birthday!
New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan
Here’s my appearance on Lawrence O’Donnell on Tuesday night talking about the GOP as a raging dumpster fire:
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you can do right now, today:
Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.
So far we’ve raised $171,000 from 2,100 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!
Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!
For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having there.
So far we’ve raised $126,000 from over 1,500 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all!
Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Join me in helping Ruben Gallego in his campaign to become the next Senator from Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today! We have already raised over $78,000 from over 1,200 of you - thank you all!
Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 overall subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 49,000 today), and thanks to all of you we’ve already hit our goal of 6,000 paid subscribers! With your help we can hit our big subscriber goal, keep growing our community, and keep bringing the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Ruben Gallego, The Next Senator From Arizona, Joins The Hopium Community