I'd Much Rather Be Us Than Them, New Laborers' Ad, The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics

Thurs, 1pm ET - My "With Democrats, Things Get Better" presentation - Register today!

Happy Saturday all. Got a few things for you today:

New Laborers’ Union Ad for Biden - One of the things I’m really looking forward to this year is all the work for Biden that going’s get done outside the campaign itself. Like us, here at Hopium, folks aren’t waiting around, asking for permission to go win this thing. They are just going out there and doing the work.

In that spirit check out this new ad for Biden from the Laborers Union. Its called “Everything Is BOOMIN’” and is now running in MI, PA, WI:

Republican Extremism Is Giving Us Big Opportunities In North Carolina and Across The Country This Year - The NC GOP Gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson has already gained a great deal of attention for his extremist views. Now we learn that the GOP nominee for Superindendent of Public Instruction has called for the killing of Democratic politicians, including Barack Obama:

A central premise of our work here together is that the GOP’s escalating extremism is creating opportunities for Democrats to expand and grow, win elections and take things away from Republicans. It is what we did in 2022 and 2023, and it is what we are already doing in early 2024. I call it “Getting to 55.”

Knowing Mark Robinson would be on the ballot was a primary reason why I’ve been so aggressive about supporting Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems this year. He is too extreme for North Carolina, and it gives us a real opportunity to flip this critical battleground state. Now he’s been joined by an even more dangerous extremist, Morrow. We have a huge opportunity now in North Carolina, and I hope you will join me in providing the NC Dems with the early resources they need to build a winning state-wide effort this November. And be sure to catch the end of my talk from Wednesday night when Chair Clayton joined to give us an update on the progress we are making there. She is a vital new leader for our party, and I am proud to be supporting her.

As I have been saying I think something broke inside the Republican Party when Dobbs happened. It was just too much, too far, too dangerous even for many Republican voters. Trumpy candidates failed to bring their coalition together throughout the battlegrounds in 2022, and we are already seeing Trump and other MAGAs really struggle to bring their coalition together in 2024. Trump has repeatedly underperformed public polling in the early states. A big chunk of the GOP - 20%-30% - has deep reservations about backing Trump and MAGA; a remarkable number have said they are even open to voting for Biden.

MAGA struggled in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023. It is struggling in early 2024. It is in my mind a failed politics - just too dangerous, extreme, ugly and corrupt. There is a growing and powerful permission structure being created for Republicans to not back Trump and MAGA this year. It’s being created by courageous Rs like Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, the Lincoln Project and now, incredibly, Mike Pence, who yesterday said he will not be backing Trump this year:

The opposition to Trump and MAGA from inside the Republican Party is growing, dramatically, and has become a truly significant problem for Republicans this year. This splintering of the GOP gives us the opportunity to not just win this year, but to win big and get to 55.

Why I Am Optimistic - Some new Hopium-infused resources for your weekend viewing, listening and reading pleasure:

Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’

Video Presentation - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election

New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan

There are a few basic points I make in these latest, post State Of The Union video and audio discussions:

Look Beyond Polling - When folks who work in politics and elections assess the health of a candidate or party committee we look at much more than polling, including money raised, electoral track record, candidate charisma/performance, the competence of the campaign team, endorsements/local support, strength of arguments, life story and potential negatives/baggage. A central reason why I am much more optimistic than most right now is I am looking at a much broader set of inputs than polling, as Tom Bonier and I did in 2022. And what all of this tells me, drawing on my more than 30 years in the game, is that I would much rather be us than them.

The Polling We Have Is Not All Pointing In The Same Direction/Trump Does Not Lead - The central mistake made by many in 2022 is that they focused on the polling showing a red wave and dismissed polling which showed a close, competitive election. Remarkably, this is happening again this cycle, as yes there is polling showing Trump ahead right now, but there is also polling showing Biden leading and a close, competitive election. Almost all the polls taken in the last two weeks has the race within margin of error, meaning it’s close. Of those six polls find Biden leading. The Economist’s polling aggregator now has Biden ahead:

Senate polling is encouraging, and Dems now lead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker - All of our Senate incumbents are holding. Gallego has had encouraging polling in recent weeks, as had Colin Allred. There is no bad polling for us right now in the Senate, and this week Dems jumped ahead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker. Some have asked about the Maryland Senate race. I’ve checked in with folks here in DC and word is that we should be able to hold there with whomever comes out of the Dem primary.

The way I am describing the race right now is like a basketball game where the score is tied after the first quarter. We have most of the game ahead of us, and a lot can and will happen. What is likely to happen is that the Biden campaign’s messages move voters, our coalition comes together, the rancid Trumpian shitshow continues to embarrass and struggle, we go to work and and turn a close race into a strong Democratic win. That’s what’s been happening all across the country, in election and election, since Dobbs. And that is what is likely to happen in November too.

But the key here, job #1, is for all of us to sign up for the Biden campaign by making a small donation today, and begin the process of planning what you are going to do to help him win. If we made 2 million phone calls into NY-3 in 5 weeks, imagine what we can do in the 7 battlegrounds over the next 8 months….

Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, but in every way imaginable I would much rather be us than them; and I remain immensely proud to be in this fight with all of you.

Thurs, March 21st 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Come join me this Thursday for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It is a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation this Thursday, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared on Friday.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you do today, right now:

Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

So far we’ve raised over $161,000 from over 1,900 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 expansion state. Please donate today. For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my indepth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Democratic Party Chair.

So far we’ve raised $108,000 from over 1,300 of you - thank you all!

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $57,000 from over 800 of you - thank you all!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 48,000 today!). With your help, we can hit our goal, grow our community, and bring the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people. You can also become a paid subscriber which helps us grow here.

Sundays are an off day here at Hopium. See you all Monday, and keep fighting hard - Simon