Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, GOP = Ugliest Thing We've Ever Seen, Hopium's 1st Birthday!

Thurs, 1pm ET - My "With Democrats, Things Get Better" presentation

Happy Friday all. It’s been another good week. Let’s start with watching the current Biden battleground ad. It’s a really good one:

Why I Am Optimistic - Some new Hopium-infused resources for your weekend viewing, listening and reading pleasure:

New Posts, Analyses - The Democratic Party Is Strong, Unified and Winning, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’, Joe Biden Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him

A New Video Presentation - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too)

New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan

There are a few basic points I make in these latest, post State Of The Union discussions:

Look Beyond Polling - When folks who work in politics and elections assess the health of a candidate or party committee we look at much more than polling, including money raised, electoral track record, candidate charisma/performance, the competence of the campaign team, endorsements/local support, strength of arguments, life story and potential negatives/baggage. A central reason why I am much more optimistic than most right now is I am looking at a much broader set of inputs than polling, as Tom Bonier and I did in 2022. And what all of this tells me, drawing on my more than 30 years in the game, is that I would much rather be us than them.

The Polling We Have Is Not All Pointing In The Same Direction/Trump Does Not Lead - The central mistake made by many in 2022 is that they focused on the polling showing a red wave and dismissed polling which showed a close, competitive election. Remarkably, this is happening again this cycle, as yes there is polling showing Trump ahead right now, but there is also polling showing Biden leading and a close, competitive election. Almost all the polls taken in the last two weeks has the race within margin of error, meaning it’s close. Of those six polls find Biden leading. The Economist’s polling aggregator now has Biden ahead:

Senate polling is encouraging, and Dems now lead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker - All of our Senate incumbents are holding. Gallego has had encouraging polling in recent weeks, as had Colin Allred. There is no bad polling for us right now in the Senate, and this week Dems jumped ahead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker.

The way I am describing the race right now is like a basketball game where the score is tied after the first quarter. We have most of the game ahead of us, and a lot can and will happen. What is likely to happen is that the Biden campaign’s messages move voters, our coalition comes together, the rancid Trumpian shitshow continues to embarrass and struggle, we go to work and and turn a close race into a strong Democratic win. That’s what’s been happening all across the country, in election and election, since Dobbs. And that is what is likely to happen in November too.

But the key here, job #1, is for all of us to sign up for the Biden campaign by making a small donation today, and begin the process of planning what you are going to do to help him win. If we made 2 million phone calls into NY-3 in 5 weeks, imagine what we can do in the 7 battlegrounds over the next 8 months….

Together we’ve built the most powerful political machine our party has ever had, and it’s time now to put it to work to elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, keep the Senate and flip the House. Here’s the Washington Post:

Democrats also enjoy a still vibrant network of grass-roots groups around the country, which have remained engaged since 2018 and are largely able to coordinate with the Biden campaign. Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, spoke last week to Swing Left, a network of volunteers. She invited people to join the campaign’s “I’m On Board” organizing effort.

“As we jump into March, as we come out of Super Tuesday and the president’s State of the Union in the next couple of weeks, it will be a real opportunity to just remind voters of just what that choice, how important and how critical this election is, and really what everyone can do to get on board,” Rodriguez told the group on Feb. 29.

While Biden has lacked the movement-like charisma of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, Democrats continue to enjoy significant state and local organizing muscle, largely through loose national networks of local progressive groups. The campaign of Rep. Tom Suozzi, who recently outperformed polling by about eight points in a special election on New York’s Long Island, credits these groups with giving him a huge advantage, as have other campaigns in special elections in recent years.

Suozzi’s campaign team said about a third of the door-knocking, letter-writing and phone-calling that took place in that race came from groups outside the district, such as the Massachusetts-based Swing Blue Alliance. Democrats widely believe that the opposition to Trump will solidify, powering volunteer efforts despite the misgivings about Biden’s candidacy.

“In the past few years, fear of MAGA has helped fuel the building of the most powerful grassroots machine the Democratic Party has ever had,” Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who now works with local activist groups, said in a statement. “Their money and hard work will ensure the Biden campaign is the biggest and strongest Presidential campaign Democrats have ever run.”

Here’s a clip of my conversation with Lawrence O’Donnell from Tuesday night:

Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, but in every way imaginable I would much rather be us than them; and I remain immensely proud to be in this fight with all of you.

Thurs, March 21st 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Come join me this Thursday for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It is a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation this Thursday, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared on Friday. Here’s a core slide from the presentation:

The Ongoing, Unprecedented Republican Shitshow - Their leader has betrayed the country, repeatedly, and is a serial criminal and rapist. Their party is broke, and in turmoil. Dozens of GOP leaders in critical battleground states have been indicted for trying to overturn the election. 2 more just resigned in epic scandals. Republicans removed their own Speaker, and can’t pass simple bills. The budget is six months late. House Republicans are retiring and jumping from the sinking ship in record numbers. They got blown out in NY-3. Trump has underperformed his public polls in every state but one so far. Prominent Republicans - former nominee, daughter of a Vice-President, former party RNC chair - have all pledged not to support Trump. Trump keeps making monumental mistakes on the stump and in his campaign. He keeps losing in court and he and Rudy now owe $700 million!!!! Their “Impeachment” inquiry turns out to have been a Russian-Trump joint disinfo operation. rump has told Haley voters, a huge chunk of his coalition he doesn’t want or need them (WTF!!!!!!!). And how this from the Washington Post:

Even before House Republicans embarked to West Virginia for their yearly gathering Wednesday, they retreated. 

A lack of participation — not even half of the 219-member conference attended — contributed to the canceling of a second day of panels meant for lawmakers to discuss policy and how to expand their majority (LOLOLOLOL!!!!!)

The group’s chairwoman, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who coordinates the yearly messaging retreat, told reporters that the lack of attendance was not representative of the “enthusiastic conference” and that lower attendance was based on Republicans choosing to return home to campaign in tough primaries or convince voters that they deserve a second term in districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. (Rep. Troy E. Nehls of Texas told us he wasn’t going so he could spend time with his family. Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina said he was going to go home instead.)

The physical representation of disunity was not the image House Republicans were hoping to display after a whirlwind year that has tested the conference’s slim majority and impeded its ability to consistently legislate against the Biden administration.

Donald Trump and the Republicans are the ugliest thing we’ve seen in American politics in generations, and we are going to kick their ass this November.

Macron Says European Troops In Ukraine A Possibility - It’s a core tenet of Hopium that all of us need to come to a better understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. From the AP:

PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron warned Western powers against showing any signs of weakness to Russia as he reiterated his position Thursday that sending Western troops into Ukraine shouldn’t be ruled out, though he said today’s situation doesn’t require it.

In an interview on French national television TF1 and France 2, Macron was asked about the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine, which he publicly raised last month in comments that prompted pushback from other European leaders who stressed they had no plans to do so.

“We’re not in that situation today,” he said, but added that “all these options are possible.”

Macron, who is the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, declined to describe in which situation France would be ready to send troops. He said the responsibility for prompting such a move would lie with Moscow — “It wouldn’t be us” — and said France would not lead an offensive into Ukraine against Russia.

But he also said, “Today, to have peace in Ukraine, we must not be weak.”

Macron described the Russia-Ukraine war as “existential” to France and Europe.

Here is an AI-dubbed recording of that interview for those who want to dive further into Macron’s emerging argument about the the gravity of the Russian threat to Europe and the West:

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you do today, right now:

Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

Our community has already raised over $157,000 for Biden Harris - thank you!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 expansion state. Please donate today. For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Democratic Party Chair.

Our community has already raised over $106,000 for this critical battleground - thank you all!

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $56,000 for Ruben - thank you all!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 48,000 today!). With your help, we can hit our goal, grow our community, and bring the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people. You can also become a paid subscriber which helps us grow here.

Hopium Chronicles Turns 1 This Month - I launched this thing a year ago with this welcome post, and my get to 55 memo. I’m so proud of what we’ve done together, the community we’ve built. Here’s what I wrote last March:

Though I’ve been in politics for a long time, my journey fighting the “red wave” over the past year changed my understanding of the work that needs to get done to defeat MAGA, tell our inspiring story more effectively, and ensure that freedom and democracy prevail.

Basically I came to understand that our politics was changing and I had to change with it. It led me to conclude that my old organization, NDN, which I founded back in 1996, was no longer the right vehicle for me. It did a lot of good over a long period of time, and we built a remarkable community there. As I discuss in my recent interview with Ron Brownstein in the Atlantic, I feel like we are entering a new political era in America, one that requires new strategies and approaches. NDN was built for a different era, and it had a different mission. I needed to do something new, organize my work in new ways. So here I am. With all of you.

I am calling it Hopium Chronicles because I want this to be a journey guided by hope and optimism, of belief in ourselves, in love of country and a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. I have become convinced that part of Greater MAGA’s strategy is to intentionally poison our discourse with negative sentiment every day. They want us to feel bad about America, our democracy, our leaders, our institutions, our success, each other, ourselves. We cannot let them do that any more. While they talk American down every day, we need to talk it up. While they spread lies, we respond with truth and data. Hopium is a rejection of the darkness they are trying to spread. It is a way of standing up for our great country and its remarkable people. It is the key to how we win.

Listen to this happy Hopium birthday message from Governor Gavin Newsom, and if you want to mark this important date by becoming a paid subscriber you can do so here. Your financial support allows me to do this work, our community to grow and it keeps the Hopium flowing! Thank you to all of you who have been of this spirited experiment so far. We’ve done a lot of good together but as all know, our most important work lies ahead.

Keep fighting hard all - Simon