The "Trump Is A Strong Candidate" Bubble Is Bursting, Biden Leads in 6 Post-SOTU Polls

2 Events Thursday - With Dems at 1pm ET, Ruben Gallego at 8pm/Welcome New Subscribers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy Wednesday all. Got a few things for you today (post was updated to include a sixth new poll showing Biden leading):

Trump Is Weak, Not Strong. An Unprecedented Dumpster Fire, Not A Juggernaut - With Trump’s struggles raising money and another election night where the opposition to Trump inside the Republican Party continues to be significant (even long after his opponents have dropped out), it is time for the “Trump is a strong candidate” bubble of the last few months to fully burst.

Let’s review:

• Trump has underperformed public polling in most of the early battleground states, signaling reluctance of voters to vote for him when making that final decision

• The struggle of his campaign and the RNC to raise money in an election year is shocking, a clear sign that MAGA is unattractive even for core Republicans - cannot stress enough what a big deal this is

• The GOP itself is in turmoil, laying off dozens of staff, and going through a very rough leadership transition in an election year. Dozens of leading Republican officials including State Party chairs in key battleground states have been indicted

• Republicans got blown out in NY-3, a big “bellwether,” seeing a seat they won just 16 months earlier by 7.5 pts going +8 for the Dems. The loss here was a continuation of the GOP’s ongoing struggle in elections of all kinds all across the country since Dobbs

• There is an unprecedented revolt against Trump inside the GOP - Pence, Romney, the Cheneys, it just goes on and on. Two former GOP Vice Presidents, a former Party nominee, the former chair of the RNC, dozens of senior government officials who worked for Trump…..we’ve never seen anything like what is happening inside the GOP now. These leaders are creating a powerful permission structure for other Rs and R-leaning independents to walk away from Trump, as they did in the battleground states in 2022. Last night the Biden campaign announced that six major fundraisers for Nikki Haley’s campaign had started raising money for Biden-Harris. The party is splintering, bigly

• Peter Navarro, a senior advisor to Trump, went to jail yesterday. His CFO went to jail last year, and is returning soon for committing more crimes. Most of his core 2020 campaign team were convicted or pled guilty of crimes. The man who was fueling the Impeachment inquiry was just arrested, and appears to have been working with both Russian intelligence and Trump. Everywhere you look there are crimes, crimes and more crimes…

• House Republicans are retiring in droves, leaping from the burning MAGA ship. Large scale retirements are a vote of no-confidence in the party itself, and the ones who are leaving are considered “serious” Republicans

• Trump keeps losing in court, badly, and he and Rudy now owe $700m, which is almost the size of all the hard money spent by the Trump campaign in 2020. It is serious money, and we all understand the President may go bankrupt or start losing properties and assets as early as Monday - it will be devastating for his image as a successful business if this begins happening. Dumpster fire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Trump’s performance on the stump has been scary, a daily “bloodbath,” providing Democrats with an unending amount of material to use in the election to push him further and further away from voters

• Due to the success of the Biden Presidency, the major GOP attacks on Biden - economy, inflation, crime, border, war on energy, deficit, Biden crime family, age - are all evaporating, making this election increasingly a referendum on Trump, not Biden. That is really bad news for Republicans…

As I said in in my discussion with Lawrence O’Donnell last night, Trump 2024 is ugliest political thing any of us have ever seen:

Meanwhile, Joe Biden is in the midst of his best run of polling in some time. 5 post-State Of The Union polls have him ahead (all via 538):

• 44-43 Economist/YouGov (today)

• 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

• 44-43 Morning Consult (March 9-11)

• 46-45 Public Policy Research

• 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

• 45-44 Civiqs

The Economist poll average has Biden 1 point ahead of Trump for the second week in a row:

It’s time for the ridiculous “Trump is strong” bubble to burst. As I’ve written before:

• 2022 - the red wave that never came

• 2023 - the recession which never came

• 2024 - the strong Trump campaign which will never come

And remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong, unified, and winning elections all across the country.

And they have Trump.

Though we have a lot of work to do, as I wake this am, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them.

Tomorrow, March 21st - 2 Events!

• 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Come join me this Thursday for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It’s a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation this Thursday, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared on Friday.

• 8pm ET - Ruben Gallego Joins Us Live - Excited that my good friend Ruben will be joining us for a live update on his campaign. Register for the event here; donate if you can; and if you can’t make it live a recording will be here for everyone on Friday morning. We already have over 400 RSVPs for tomorrow night - look forward to seeing everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Are We Better Off? Hell Yeah, Part 3,273 - New this morning from NBC News - The U.S. Crime Rate Is Still Dropping, FBI Data Shows:

New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend…..

The new fourth-quarter numbers showed a 13% decline in murder in 2023 from 2022, a 6% decline in reported violent crime and a 4% decline in reported property crime. That’s based on data from around 13,000 law enforcement agencies, policing about 82% of the U.S. population, that provided the FBI with data through December.

“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,” said Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends…..

In a statement on Tuesday, President Joe Biden called the new numbers "good news for the American people" and touted his efforts to combat gun violence.

"Keeping communities safe is my priority," he said. "While we've made major progress, we still have more work to do."

For a reminder about how bad things were under Trump, let’s turn to comedian Sarah Cooper in this video from April, 2020. It’s important to watch.

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - New resources for your viewing, listening and reading pleasure:

Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him

The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’

Video Presentations - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election, Hopium’s 1st Birthday!

New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you can do right now, today:

Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

So far we’ve raised $169,000 from 2,000 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having there.

So far we’ve raised $121,000 from over 1,500 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all!

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $69,000 from over 1,034 of you - thank you all!

And be sure to come see Ruben tomorrow night at 8pm ET!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 overall subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 48,000 today), and thanks to all of you we’ve already hit our goal of 6,000 paid subscribers! With your help we can hit our big subscriber goal, keep growing our community, and keep bringing the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon