Hugely relieved to see the post-SOTUS polls moving clearly to Advantage Biden.
Haley continues to be a thorn in the lard-covered side of Donald Trump. Awesome to see how many votes she continues to receive, even after postponing her campaign. And I must admit that DeSantis’ 5-percent performance in his home state of Florida comes spiced with schadenfreude.
Thank you, Simon!
.
PS. Meanwhile, a digression from the eminent satirist Andy Borowitz:
"Katie Britt’s Kitchen to Become Exhibit at the Smithsonian"
Amazing how blasé the press is about the revolts of high profile Republicans and, crucially, those who have worked most closely with him. Liz Cheney is one thing, all parties have dissent, but your own Vice President not endorsing you is absolutely nuts. The 2012 nominee not endorsing you is nuts. Could you imagine the caterwauling if Dems of this level or prominence were refusing to support Biden? It would be off the charts.
Haley continues to gain votes despite the fact that she suspended her campaign. Loving it! Even in FL with over 200,000 votes against Trump is reason to feel more optimistic and the momentum is building in Biden's favor. Not going to say we'll take Florida but will remain hopeful.
I feel the shift and hope those Haley voters come out to vote for Biden in the general election.
Appeals for donations are streaming in - this post is for people who are tapped out financially but would like to do some work each day.
I want to recommend joining Field Team 6. <feildteam6.org> They have a computer program for free texting, BYOP it's called - to register likely Democrats/support candidates in various states including Arizona/Rueben. North Carolina, CA-22 - I mention these because we have focused on these here at Hopium. Also Ohio, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada with more being added all the time.
BYOP stands for "Bring your own phone" but you are not actually using your own phone. You are using computer software like Google Voice to create a phone number that you can text with using your desktop/laptop (doesn't work with tablets or cell phone browsers)
Field Team 6 has an extension you add to the Chrome browser (only works on Chrome right now) that they have written to send a script designed for each campaign, for example reproductive rights in Georgia or the economy in Michigan. There are instructions on the site as well as regularly scheduled zoom trainings. There is also a Slack workspace where you can go with issues, questions etc once you get going.
Basically, you'll be sending from 20-100 texts daily - the reason for these numbers is Google Voice throttles people and you have to wait 24 hours to send more. I happen to be one of the unlucky ones who seems to get blocked after 20 or so but some folks manage to send 100 or even a bit more daily before they are blocked.
Even though each person may send only a few daily, but with many people engaged, we sent 49K last week, which was up 20% from last week, and 40% more from last month. For less than an hour a day, minutes really, you can do something that matters that doesn't cost a penny.
Zoom trainings are held every Thursday @6pm Eastern 3pm Pacific (please pay attention to the time zone listed - the first time I did one I failed to notice the time was given as Pacific and showed up 3 hours early in the middle of a social media training) Here's a direct link to the BYOP training signup
Once you are trained you can do it at your own convenience.
And speaking of social media, there is also a social media campaign to get the message out that way, also free. You can find the training and the pre-made memes on the FT6 site, which has options for using Twitter, Facebook and Instagram far.
There are also phone banks for those that feel confident talking to strangers - I know many of you do - which are free of course but occur at set times, as opposed to working on your own schedule.
Simon is right - doing more has helped me to worry less. Now I can do something each day that doesn't create financial stress by asking me to donate money my budget can't handle, that makes me feel empowered rather than terrified.
I am looking to you for my 'next level' of monthly donations.
Question: Can you go into some depth on how you and Tom go about looking at which races deserve your focus for donations and support? e.g. Colin Allred for Senate in Texas (of all races, I am most concerned about loosing the Senate this November) Thanks.
Regarding this “ Dozens of leading Republican officials including State Party chairs in key battleground states have been indicted”. Which states are you referring to?
Looking at all these percentages of Haley voters that’ll vote Biden over Trump in these primary elections (FL incl where I live ) — why are these numbers not showing up in current polling data?
I’d think TFG would be buried by them!
Only a 1-2% difference overall doesn’t make sense… That is If, he can’t afford to lose a single voter.
Or, is it just a ploy to keep us clicking?
1 billion dollars to Biden- Harris campaign from Haley donors is the most exciting thing I’ve heard yet !
Yes, Simon, THE TIDES INDEED HAVE TURNED 🥳😀
* As I’ve stated previously I don’t put a lot of merit in skewed polling
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
My large, Fl county mirrored the state’s results. Less than 24% voted here with almost 14% for Haley with < 3.5% for our “anti-woke” governor.We are MAGA red. All my elected representatives are Republican, including a “Freedom” Caucus House Rep and “Constitutional” Sheriff.
6 Trumper flags/signs on our street and 0 Biden/Harris…until this week. Our Biden/Harris yard sign now proudly planted next to our American flag.
Trumps speeches are certainy getting scarier. He looks each time as though he's losing skin tone..never mind his fake tan....hands are getting older. His words are more so on every level. The studering get worse as well. Tjis all all your points to someone failing quickly.
Saw a clip from Rick Wilson (of the Lincoln Project) talking about yesterday's primary results. Based on TLP own internal polling/ data analysis they project that ~50% of the Nikki voters who say they will not vote for tfg WILL vote for Biden. Another way to look at it is, if 20% of Nikki's voter say anyone but tfg, that means 10% of those people will cast a vote for Biden. The number for DeSantis voters is 20%.
These results have expanded what is called the Bannon Line for mid/ upper single digits to a range of 8 to 11%. For those not familiar with the Bannon Line, it is named after Steve Bannon, who upon looking at what TLP was doing, realized that if they shifted 2-4% of the voters from tfg to Biden, that President Biden would win the election. This shift puts more seats in play/ winnable for Ds and MAYBE a state or two. Heavy emphasis on MAYBE.
P.S. Rick is the author of the best selling book "Every Thing Trump Touches Dies" and what has become an iron rule of politics-- #ETTD.
Hugely relieved to see the post-SOTUS polls moving clearly to Advantage Biden.
Haley continues to be a thorn in the lard-covered side of Donald Trump. Awesome to see how many votes she continues to receive, even after postponing her campaign. And I must admit that DeSantis’ 5-percent performance in his home state of Florida comes spiced with schadenfreude.
Thank you, Simon!
.
PS. Meanwhile, a digression from the eminent satirist Andy Borowitz:
"Katie Britt’s Kitchen to Become Exhibit at the Smithsonian"
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/katie-britts-kitchen-to-become-exhibit
.
Amazing how blasé the press is about the revolts of high profile Republicans and, crucially, those who have worked most closely with him. Liz Cheney is one thing, all parties have dissent, but your own Vice President not endorsing you is absolutely nuts. The 2012 nominee not endorsing you is nuts. Could you imagine the caterwauling if Dems of this level or prominence were refusing to support Biden? It would be off the charts.
Haley continues to gain votes despite the fact that she suspended her campaign. Loving it! Even in FL with over 200,000 votes against Trump is reason to feel more optimistic and the momentum is building in Biden's favor. Not going to say we'll take Florida but will remain hopeful.
I feel the shift and hope those Haley voters come out to vote for Biden in the general election.
Appeals for donations are streaming in - this post is for people who are tapped out financially but would like to do some work each day.
I want to recommend joining Field Team 6. <feildteam6.org> They have a computer program for free texting, BYOP it's called - to register likely Democrats/support candidates in various states including Arizona/Rueben. North Carolina, CA-22 - I mention these because we have focused on these here at Hopium. Also Ohio, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada with more being added all the time.
BYOP stands for "Bring your own phone" but you are not actually using your own phone. You are using computer software like Google Voice to create a phone number that you can text with using your desktop/laptop (doesn't work with tablets or cell phone browsers)
Field Team 6 has an extension you add to the Chrome browser (only works on Chrome right now) that they have written to send a script designed for each campaign, for example reproductive rights in Georgia or the economy in Michigan. There are instructions on the site as well as regularly scheduled zoom trainings. There is also a Slack workspace where you can go with issues, questions etc once you get going.
Basically, you'll be sending from 20-100 texts daily - the reason for these numbers is Google Voice throttles people and you have to wait 24 hours to send more. I happen to be one of the unlucky ones who seems to get blocked after 20 or so but some folks manage to send 100 or even a bit more daily before they are blocked.
Even though each person may send only a few daily, but with many people engaged, we sent 49K last week, which was up 20% from last week, and 40% more from last month. For less than an hour a day, minutes really, you can do something that matters that doesn't cost a penny.
Zoom trainings are held every Thursday @6pm Eastern 3pm Pacific (please pay attention to the time zone listed - the first time I did one I failed to notice the time was given as Pacific and showed up 3 hours early in the middle of a social media training) Here's a direct link to the BYOP training signup
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/405150/
Once you are trained you can do it at your own convenience.
And speaking of social media, there is also a social media campaign to get the message out that way, also free. You can find the training and the pre-made memes on the FT6 site, which has options for using Twitter, Facebook and Instagram far.
There are also phone banks for those that feel confident talking to strangers - I know many of you do - which are free of course but occur at set times, as opposed to working on your own schedule.
Simon is right - doing more has helped me to worry less. Now I can do something each day that doesn't create financial stress by asking me to donate money my budget can't handle, that makes me feel empowered rather than terrified.
Hope this helps. So glad you are all here.
Simon, thanks for this update.
I am looking to you for my 'next level' of monthly donations.
Question: Can you go into some depth on how you and Tom go about looking at which races deserve your focus for donations and support? e.g. Colin Allred for Senate in Texas (of all races, I am most concerned about loosing the Senate this November) Thanks.
I appreciate all of the positive news. Thank You.
Regarding this “ Dozens of leading Republican officials including State Party chairs in key battleground states have been indicted”. Which states are you referring to?
Question:
Looking at all these percentages of Haley voters that’ll vote Biden over Trump in these primary elections (FL incl where I live ) — why are these numbers not showing up in current polling data?
I’d think TFG would be buried by them!
Only a 1-2% difference overall doesn’t make sense… That is If, he can’t afford to lose a single voter.
Or, is it just a ploy to keep us clicking?
1 billion dollars to Biden- Harris campaign from Haley donors is the most exciting thing I’ve heard yet !
Yes, Simon, THE TIDES INDEED HAVE TURNED 🥳😀
* As I’ve stated previously I don’t put a lot of merit in skewed polling
Used in 50+ cities to greatly reduce crime.
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
My large, Fl county mirrored the state’s results. Less than 24% voted here with almost 14% for Haley with < 3.5% for our “anti-woke” governor.We are MAGA red. All my elected representatives are Republican, including a “Freedom” Caucus House Rep and “Constitutional” Sheriff.
6 Trumper flags/signs on our street and 0 Biden/Harris…until this week. Our Biden/Harris yard sign now proudly planted next to our American flag.
Loud and proud !
🪧🇺🇸
❤️🤍💙
No human will vote for Sleazeball Orange in November.
For a brilliant analysis of the true depth of Trump’s fascistic calls to violence check out Timothy Synder: https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/the-bloodbath-candidate?r=3h4ow&utm_medium=ios
Trumps speeches are certainy getting scarier. He looks each time as though he's losing skin tone..never mind his fake tan....hands are getting older. His words are more so on every level. The studering get worse as well. Tjis all all your points to someone failing quickly.
Here is Simon on Blue Vote Cafe on Democrats Abroad!
Great background for postcards or texting! Keep working family!
https://youtu.be/UwtJ1l-gyjc?si=vwXlHCl0OLqWrd4v
Saw a clip from Rick Wilson (of the Lincoln Project) talking about yesterday's primary results. Based on TLP own internal polling/ data analysis they project that ~50% of the Nikki voters who say they will not vote for tfg WILL vote for Biden. Another way to look at it is, if 20% of Nikki's voter say anyone but tfg, that means 10% of those people will cast a vote for Biden. The number for DeSantis voters is 20%.
These results have expanded what is called the Bannon Line for mid/ upper single digits to a range of 8 to 11%. For those not familiar with the Bannon Line, it is named after Steve Bannon, who upon looking at what TLP was doing, realized that if they shifted 2-4% of the voters from tfg to Biden, that President Biden would win the election. This shift puts more seats in play/ winnable for Ds and MAYBE a state or two. Heavy emphasis on MAYBE.
P.S. Rick is the author of the best selling book "Every Thing Trump Touches Dies" and what has become an iron rule of politics-- #ETTD.
Thank you for the information. I’m part of Sister District Project and our Sacramento chapter will support candidates in Arizona.