The thing that shocks me is how the news is covering the RNC takeover, GOP state party collapse, and the funding disparity. The Daily podcast yesterday framed it as a boon for Trump because now the apparatus is totally dedicated to him. In what world do you want to fire the people who have all the contacts with the printing company, church leaders, volunteer contacts and local media contacts? Just re-establishing contact with half of those takes time you do not want to lose.
I believe that 40 of 44 of tfg administration have come out AGAINST him and his POTUS bid. Basically 90% of those who worked with, same him up close and personal are saying, "Hell no.".
I also listened to the Daily with growing agitation and then remembered how the day before the NY-03 race they did an episode framing it as a neck-in-neck race. Well, we know how that turned out (+8) and we were part of making that decisive victory happen. Deciding who to listen to and who to not listen to seems to be one of the keys to sanity as we work together to uphold Democracy!
I am just waiting for Tuesday's, "Yesterday, New York Attorney General Latisha James ceased all of Former President Donald Trump's Assets in New York including a substantial portion of his Stock Portfolio and the Famous Trump Tower. Today we have on Ken Bensinger to talk about how this puts Democrats and Joe Biden on the defense this November. I am Michael Barbaro and this is the Daily"
I agree absolutely. Negativity can get you just so far. It's fun to work for democracy and to work with people who know how to laugh and get things done.
I know, right? I heard some pundit complacently saying that Trump still had his experienced election campaign team in place - Susie Wilds and ???, but those people are "big picture" not the nitty gritty stuff to keep the lights on. In addition, Trump's crack team helped him LOSE in 2020! They may actually have given him good advice, but convincing him to take it is another story altogether!!
There was a week of coverage of uncommitted getting to 13% in Michigan - a single state of the all the states which have voted so far - and last night Trump did worse than that in every state that voted even without any opponents. We are witnessing an unprecedented shitshow, dumpster fire whatever you want to call it and we need to say so, loudly, the media narrative is turning and we have to help it turn.
It’s the Red Tsunami all over again- the media had a story they wanted to tell about 2022 that wasn’t at all representative of how voters were actually feeling. Trump is a historically weak candidate and yet the story they want to tell is that he’s strong and all of this weakness is actually his strength.
Infuriating, and it is tough to not get blown around by such misinformation. Just this morning I was really thrown off by this piece in TIME: "Biden’s Campaign Is In Trouble. Will the Turnaround Plan Work?"
For Information Warrior purposes, and my sanity, I made this Drive doc
25 FALSE PREMISES RELIED ON BY “RED WAVE” PROMOTERS
Hugely relieved to see the post-SOTUS polls moving clearly to Advantage Biden.
Haley continues to be a thorn in the lard-covered side of Donald Trump. Awesome to see how many votes she continues to receive, even after postponing her campaign. And I must admit that DeSantis’ 5-percent performance in his home state of Florida comes spiced with schadenfreude.
Thank you, Simon!
.
PS. Meanwhile, a digression from the eminent satirist Andy Borowitz:
"Katie Britt’s Kitchen to Become Exhibit at the Smithsonian"
New polls from AZ, GA, NC, and NV today also seem to indicate a close election. NC in particular seems pretty promising -- Trump is only up 3 there, with a 3.9% margin of error. But the split is within margin of error for all of them, and there's a 4 point improvement for Biden from February to March in NV (-6 to -2).
Haley continues to gain votes despite the fact that she suspended her campaign. Loving it! Even in FL with over 200,000 votes against Trump is reason to feel more optimistic and the momentum is building in Biden's favor. Not going to say we'll take Florida but will remain hopeful.
I feel the shift and hope those Haley voters come out to vote for Biden in the general election.
Sent out 50 postcards this week for Baker County Florida just outside Jacksonville to push Dems and vote by mail. We need turnout everywhere No matter whether it flips or not, let’s CRUSH the popular vote folks!!!!
I have a dream: that massive GOTV efforts result in a 5% higher turnout amongst Democrats than for Republicans. Imagine the Blue Tsunami!
Just imagine the states this flips for Biden-Harris! Imagine the consequences for the House – and the Senate as well! And imagine the massive benefits for state-level and other down-ballot races!
This November, there is absolutely no excuse for a Democratic turnout below 70 %.
I love daydreaming like this, it is so motivating to believe especially (when you hear a bit of bad news) that we can focus on the a huge win knowing likeminded others are working ALL THE TIME to make this dream a reality in November. This is a awesome comment ArcticStones! Thank you
Appeals for donations are streaming in - this post is for people who are tapped out financially but would like to do some work each day.
I want to recommend joining Field Team 6. <feildteam6.org> They have a computer program for free texting, BYOP it's called - to register likely Democrats/support candidates in various states including Arizona/Rueben. North Carolina, CA-22 - I mention these because we have focused on these here at Hopium. Also Ohio, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada with more being added all the time.
BYOP stands for "Bring your own phone" but you are not actually using your own phone. You are using computer software like Google Voice to create a phone number that you can text with using your desktop/laptop (doesn't work with tablets or cell phone browsers)
Field Team 6 has an extension you add to the Chrome browser (only works on Chrome right now) that they have written to send a script designed for each campaign, for example reproductive rights in Georgia or the economy in Michigan. There are instructions on the site as well as regularly scheduled zoom trainings. There is also a Slack workspace where you can go with issues, questions etc once you get going.
Basically, you'll be sending from 20-100 texts daily - the reason for these numbers is Google Voice throttles people and you have to wait 24 hours to send more. I happen to be one of the unlucky ones who seems to get blocked after 20 or so but some folks manage to send 100 or even a bit more daily before they are blocked.
Even though each person may send only a few daily, but with many people engaged, we sent 49K last week, which was up 20% from last week, and 40% more from last month. For less than an hour a day, minutes really, you can do something that matters that doesn't cost a penny.
Zoom trainings are held every Thursday @6pm Eastern 3pm Pacific (please pay attention to the time zone listed - the first time I did one I failed to notice the time was given as Pacific and showed up 3 hours early in the middle of a social media training) Here's a direct link to the BYOP training signup
Once you are trained you can do it at your own convenience.
And speaking of social media, there is also a social media campaign to get the message out that way, also free. You can find the training and the pre-made memes on the FT6 site, which has options for using Twitter, Facebook and Instagram far.
There are also phone banks for those that feel confident talking to strangers - I know many of you do - which are free of course but occur at set times, as opposed to working on your own schedule.
Simon is right - doing more has helped me to worry less. Now I can do something each day that doesn't create financial stress by asking me to donate money my budget can't handle, that makes me feel empowered rather than terrified.
I am looking to you for my 'next level' of monthly donations.
Question: Can you go into some depth on how you and Tom go about looking at which races deserve your focus for donations and support? e.g. Colin Allred for Senate in Texas (of all races, I am most concerned about loosing the Senate this November) Thanks.
Speaking of Tom Bonier, I am not seeing a single Threads post from him since the one 5 weeks ago, where he commented early voting in Suozzi’s NY3 race. What’s up with that? (I cannot see recent Xitter posts.)
Regarding this “ Dozens of leading Republican officials including State Party chairs in key battleground states have been indicted”. Which states are you referring to?
Michigan Wisconsin Arizona and others as well as very low fundraising for state and national GQP. Here is a vid discussing. The more you know about this the easier it is to get working for dems and tell R friends they aren’t on the winning side. Hope this helps.
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
My large, Fl county mirrored the state’s results. Less than 24% voted here with almost 14% for Haley with < 3.5% for our “anti-woke” governor.We are MAGA red. All my elected representatives are Republican, including a “Freedom” Caucus House Rep and “Constitutional” Sheriff.
6 Trumper flags/signs on our street and 0 Biden/Harris…until this week. Our Biden/Harris yard sign now proudly planted next to our American flag.
Trumps speeches are certainy getting scarier. He looks each time as though he's losing skin tone..never mind his fake tan....hands are getting older. His words are more so on every level. The studering get worse as well. Tjis all all your points to someone failing quickly.
Saw a clip from Rick Wilson (of the Lincoln Project) talking about yesterday's primary results. Based on TLP own internal polling/ data analysis they project that ~50% of the Nikki voters who say they will not vote for tfg WILL vote for Biden. Another way to look at it is, if 20% of Nikki's voter say anyone but tfg, that means 10% of those people will cast a vote for Biden. The number for DeSantis voters is 20%.
These results have expanded what is called the Bannon Line for mid/ upper single digits to a range of 8 to 11%. For those not familiar with the Bannon Line, it is named after Steve Bannon, who upon looking at what TLP was doing, realized that if they shifted 2-4% of the voters from tfg to Biden, that President Biden would win the election. This shift puts more seats in play/ winnable for Ds and MAYBE a state or two. Heavy emphasis on MAYBE.
P.S. Rick is the author of the best selling book "Every Thing Trump Touches Dies" and what has become an iron rule of politics-- #ETTD.
Doing a whole lot of extrapolating of Ohio's results, this could POTENTIALLY bring Biden within 1.5% of winning Ohio in 2024. My back of the envelope math is HYPOTHETICAL. Getting Brown re-elected should be our only goal. The Republican nominee, Bernie Moreno should help that goal.
Given how toxic Trump and MAGA Republicans are, I think it should be possible to achieve a turnout of Democratic voters that is 5% higher than for Republican voters. If so, it is game changer in many states – even in Ohio.
The thing that shocks me is how the news is covering the RNC takeover, GOP state party collapse, and the funding disparity. The Daily podcast yesterday framed it as a boon for Trump because now the apparatus is totally dedicated to him. In what world do you want to fire the people who have all the contacts with the printing company, church leaders, volunteer contacts and local media contacts? Just re-establishing contact with half of those takes time you do not want to lose.
I believe that 40 of 44 of tfg administration have come out AGAINST him and his POTUS bid. Basically 90% of those who worked with, same him up close and personal are saying, "Hell no.".
I also listened to the Daily with growing agitation and then remembered how the day before the NY-03 race they did an episode framing it as a neck-in-neck race. Well, we know how that turned out (+8) and we were part of making that decisive victory happen. Deciding who to listen to and who to not listen to seems to be one of the keys to sanity as we work together to uphold Democracy!
I am just waiting for Tuesday's, "Yesterday, New York Attorney General Latisha James ceased all of Former President Donald Trump's Assets in New York including a substantial portion of his Stock Portfolio and the Famous Trump Tower. Today we have on Ken Bensinger to talk about how this puts Democrats and Joe Biden on the defense this November. I am Michael Barbaro and this is the Daily"
I agree absolutely. Negativity can get you just so far. It's fun to work for democracy and to work with people who know how to laugh and get things done.
I know, right? I heard some pundit complacently saying that Trump still had his experienced election campaign team in place - Susie Wilds and ???, but those people are "big picture" not the nitty gritty stuff to keep the lights on. In addition, Trump's crack team helped him LOSE in 2020! They may actually have given him good advice, but convincing him to take it is another story altogether!!
Preach!
There was a week of coverage of uncommitted getting to 13% in Michigan - a single state of the all the states which have voted so far - and last night Trump did worse than that in every state that voted even without any opponents. We are witnessing an unprecedented shitshow, dumpster fire whatever you want to call it and we need to say so, loudly, the media narrative is turning and we have to help it turn.
It’s the Red Tsunami all over again- the media had a story they wanted to tell about 2022 that wasn’t at all representative of how voters were actually feeling. Trump is a historically weak candidate and yet the story they want to tell is that he’s strong and all of this weakness is actually his strength.
This is the top headline up on Vox.com:
“3 theories for why Donald Trump’s popularity is rising
Trump’s favorability has ticked up with many Americans and soared with some traditionally Democratic groups.”
Infuriating, and it is tough to not get blown around by such misinformation. Just this morning I was really thrown off by this piece in TIME: "Biden’s Campaign Is In Trouble. Will the Turnaround Plan Work?"
For Information Warrior purposes, and my sanity, I made this Drive doc
25 FALSE PREMISES RELIED ON BY “RED WAVE” PROMOTERS
https://docs.google.com/document/d/17z4jWvVZK43zIjr0oEaeudrZq5RTBxRO4Wsubu2i76o/edit?usp=drivesdk
Hugely relieved to see the post-SOTUS polls moving clearly to Advantage Biden.
Haley continues to be a thorn in the lard-covered side of Donald Trump. Awesome to see how many votes she continues to receive, even after postponing her campaign. And I must admit that DeSantis’ 5-percent performance in his home state of Florida comes spiced with schadenfreude.
Thank you, Simon!
.
PS. Meanwhile, a digression from the eminent satirist Andy Borowitz:
"Katie Britt’s Kitchen to Become Exhibit at the Smithsonian"
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/katie-britts-kitchen-to-become-exhibit
.
New polls from AZ, GA, NC, and NV today also seem to indicate a close election. NC in particular seems pretty promising -- Trump is only up 3 there, with a 3.9% margin of error. But the split is within margin of error for all of them, and there's a 4 point improvement for Biden from February to March in NV (-6 to -2).
Haley continues to gain votes despite the fact that she suspended her campaign. Loving it! Even in FL with over 200,000 votes against Trump is reason to feel more optimistic and the momentum is building in Biden's favor. Not going to say we'll take Florida but will remain hopeful.
I feel the shift and hope those Haley voters come out to vote for Biden in the general election.
Sent out 50 postcards this week for Baker County Florida just outside Jacksonville to push Dems and vote by mail. We need turnout everywhere No matter whether it flips or not, let’s CRUSH the popular vote folks!!!!
I have a dream: that massive GOTV efforts result in a 5% higher turnout amongst Democrats than for Republicans. Imagine the Blue Tsunami!
Just imagine the states this flips for Biden-Harris! Imagine the consequences for the House – and the Senate as well! And imagine the massive benefits for state-level and other down-ballot races!
This November, there is absolutely no excuse for a Democratic turnout below 70 %.
.
I love daydreaming like this, it is so motivating to believe especially (when you hear a bit of bad news) that we can focus on the a huge win knowing likeminded others are working ALL THE TIME to make this dream a reality in November. This is a awesome comment ArcticStones! Thank you
The couch sitters are the biggest group of voters we and President Biden have to convince.
Appeals for donations are streaming in - this post is for people who are tapped out financially but would like to do some work each day.
I want to recommend joining Field Team 6. <feildteam6.org> They have a computer program for free texting, BYOP it's called - to register likely Democrats/support candidates in various states including Arizona/Rueben. North Carolina, CA-22 - I mention these because we have focused on these here at Hopium. Also Ohio, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada with more being added all the time.
BYOP stands for "Bring your own phone" but you are not actually using your own phone. You are using computer software like Google Voice to create a phone number that you can text with using your desktop/laptop (doesn't work with tablets or cell phone browsers)
Field Team 6 has an extension you add to the Chrome browser (only works on Chrome right now) that they have written to send a script designed for each campaign, for example reproductive rights in Georgia or the economy in Michigan. There are instructions on the site as well as regularly scheduled zoom trainings. There is also a Slack workspace where you can go with issues, questions etc once you get going.
Basically, you'll be sending from 20-100 texts daily - the reason for these numbers is Google Voice throttles people and you have to wait 24 hours to send more. I happen to be one of the unlucky ones who seems to get blocked after 20 or so but some folks manage to send 100 or even a bit more daily before they are blocked.
Even though each person may send only a few daily, but with many people engaged, we sent 49K last week, which was up 20% from last week, and 40% more from last month. For less than an hour a day, minutes really, you can do something that matters that doesn't cost a penny.
Zoom trainings are held every Thursday @6pm Eastern 3pm Pacific (please pay attention to the time zone listed - the first time I did one I failed to notice the time was given as Pacific and showed up 3 hours early in the middle of a social media training) Here's a direct link to the BYOP training signup
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/405150/
Once you are trained you can do it at your own convenience.
And speaking of social media, there is also a social media campaign to get the message out that way, also free. You can find the training and the pre-made memes on the FT6 site, which has options for using Twitter, Facebook and Instagram far.
There are also phone banks for those that feel confident talking to strangers - I know many of you do - which are free of course but occur at set times, as opposed to working on your own schedule.
Simon is right - doing more has helped me to worry less. Now I can do something each day that doesn't create financial stress by asking me to donate money my budget can't handle, that makes me feel empowered rather than terrified.
Hope this helps. So glad you are all here.
Signed up! Thanks for sharing
Yay!
Signed up. Can I do this on an iPad? Thanks!
Simon, thanks for this update.
I am looking to you for my 'next level' of monthly donations.
Question: Can you go into some depth on how you and Tom go about looking at which races deserve your focus for donations and support? e.g. Colin Allred for Senate in Texas (of all races, I am most concerned about loosing the Senate this November) Thanks.
Speaking of Tom Bonier, I am not seeing a single Threads post from him since the one 5 weeks ago, where he commented early voting in Suozzi’s NY3 race. What’s up with that? (I cannot see recent Xitter posts.)
I appreciate all of the positive news. Thank You.
Regarding this “ Dozens of leading Republican officials including State Party chairs in key battleground states have been indicted”. Which states are you referring to?
Michigan Wisconsin Arizona and others as well as very low fundraising for state and national GQP. Here is a vid discussing. The more you know about this the easier it is to get working for dems and tell R friends they aren’t on the winning side. Hope this helps.
https://youtu.be/WK-435HVwa0?si=a-Hbamg8zNiEH39L
Used in 50+ cities to greatly reduce crime.
"In the most troubled community, it’s a small number of people doing those things, and the core of many of the worst crime problems lie in various kinds of collectivities — gangs, drug crews, drug markets — rather than in individuals."
"Don't Shoot: One Man, a Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner City America", p268
My large, Fl county mirrored the state’s results. Less than 24% voted here with almost 14% for Haley with < 3.5% for our “anti-woke” governor.We are MAGA red. All my elected representatives are Republican, including a “Freedom” Caucus House Rep and “Constitutional” Sheriff.
6 Trumper flags/signs on our street and 0 Biden/Harris…until this week. Our Biden/Harris yard sign now proudly planted next to our American flag.
Loud and proud !
🪧🇺🇸
❤️🤍💙
No human will vote for Sleazeball Orange in November.
For a brilliant analysis of the true depth of Trump’s fascistic calls to violence check out Timothy Synder: https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/the-bloodbath-candidate?r=3h4ow&utm_medium=ios
Trumps speeches are certainy getting scarier. He looks each time as though he's losing skin tone..never mind his fake tan....hands are getting older. His words are more so on every level. The studering get worse as well. Tjis all all your points to someone failing quickly.
The hair is looking positively flammable. Odd.
Here is Simon on Blue Vote Cafe on Democrats Abroad!
Great background for postcards or texting! Keep working family!
https://youtu.be/UwtJ1l-gyjc?si=vwXlHCl0OLqWrd4v
Saw a clip from Rick Wilson (of the Lincoln Project) talking about yesterday's primary results. Based on TLP own internal polling/ data analysis they project that ~50% of the Nikki voters who say they will not vote for tfg WILL vote for Biden. Another way to look at it is, if 20% of Nikki's voter say anyone but tfg, that means 10% of those people will cast a vote for Biden. The number for DeSantis voters is 20%.
These results have expanded what is called the Bannon Line for mid/ upper single digits to a range of 8 to 11%. For those not familiar with the Bannon Line, it is named after Steve Bannon, who upon looking at what TLP was doing, realized that if they shifted 2-4% of the voters from tfg to Biden, that President Biden would win the election. This shift puts more seats in play/ winnable for Ds and MAYBE a state or two. Heavy emphasis on MAYBE.
P.S. Rick is the author of the best selling book "Every Thing Trump Touches Dies" and what has become an iron rule of politics-- #ETTD.
Let’s see... 20% of the 5% that voted for DeSantis in Florida is ... 1%. Every bit helps.
Doing a whole lot of extrapolating of Ohio's results, this could POTENTIALLY bring Biden within 1.5% of winning Ohio in 2024. My back of the envelope math is HYPOTHETICAL. Getting Brown re-elected should be our only goal. The Republican nominee, Bernie Moreno should help that goal.
Given how toxic Trump and MAGA Republicans are, I think it should be possible to achieve a turnout of Democratic voters that is 5% higher than for Republican voters. If so, it is game changer in many states – even in Ohio.
Thank you for the information. I’m part of Sister District Project and our Sacramento chapter will support candidates in Arizona.
Interestingly the Democrat primary in my state is this Saturday. My county’s polling place is only open from 8a-12p. Four hours!
I suspect the numbers will be low.