Trump Is In Trouble, The Biden Latino Campaign Begins, Let's Do More And Worry Less

Thurs, 1pm ET - My "With Democrats, Things Get Better" presentation - Register today!

Happy Tuesday all. Got a few things for you today:

Trump Is In Trouble - As I’ve been arguing here for weeks I think Donald Trump is a far weaker candidate than conventional wisdom reflects right now. His agenda is much more extreme and dangerous than Trump 2020, who lost. His performance on the stump is far more erratic and disturbing. He keeps losing in court, is now an adjudicated rapist and fraudster, and may be facing personal bankruptcy due to his misdeeds. But of all of this challenges, I think the splintering of his party, and the refusal/reluctance of the non-MAGA wing of the GOP to get behind Trump may be the biggest threat of all.

With Pence, Romney, the Cheneys and a growing chorus of prominent Republicans coming out against Trump, the permission structure to walk away from the GOP nominee is getting far stronger. We’ve already seen it in the data - a large chunk of Republican voters are ready to bolt from Trump.

A central reason we did so well in the 2022 battleground states is that the Trumpy/MAGA candidates failed to bring the GOP coalition together, bled Republicans, and we defied history and won big in a year that was supposed to be tough for us. But what we are now learning is that this reluctance to back Trump from more traditional Republicans may not only be potentially costing him votes, it may costing him the hard dollars (individual donations) needed to run a Presidential campaign. From the NYTimes:

One of the most pressing issues facing Mr. Trump is the financial disparity he and allied groups now face with Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party. Mr. Biden’s campaign announced on Sunday that it entered March with $155 million cash on hand with the party, after raising $53 million in February. The Trump operation has not released a more recent total, but his campaign account and the Republican National Committee had around $40 million at the end of January.

…….recent presidential contests have been so excruciatingly close that everything has mattered, and Mr. Trump is preparing to face an especially large avalanche of Democratic spending this year. Just a single union this week announced plans to spend $200 million, ten times what the main Trump super PAC had on hand. A cash edge can help Democrats tilt or expand the battleground map in their favor.

Now this from a new CNBC article:

Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has begun to see warning signs that the small-dollar donors who fueled his last run for the White House have slowed their support to the former president this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Since late last year, members of Trump’s team have been warned by Republican Party advisors that their small-dollar donor base could be shrinking, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters.

Some have even been told there may not be much that the former president or his campaign can do to win back these key donors, the sources explained.

The drop in Trump’s small-dollar contributors could be significant obstacle as the former president faces the well-funded incumbent president, Democrat Joe Biden.

Evidence from earlier in the 2024 election cycle already hinted at an erosion of Trump’s small-dollar donor base, or support of $200 or less.

In 2023, Trump’s reelection campaign raised 62.5% less money from small-dollar donors than it did in 2019, the year before the last presidential election.

In January of this year, Trump’s campaign reported raising around $3 million from small-dollar donors, according to data from OpenSecrets.

This may sound like a lot of money, but consider that Biden’s political operation raised nearly $2 million in just one day, Feb. 29, according to a campaign spokesman for the president.

It’s my belief that something broke inside the Republican Party when Dobbs happened. It was too much, MAGA had gone too far for many non-MAGA Republicans. And in election after election since Dobbs Democrats have brought the intensity and overperformed while Republicans have repeatedly struggled. And when I say struggled it has not just been with voters and elections it has also been with money. Our fired up grassroots has helped our candidates, party committees and ballot initiatives outraise Republicans again and again.

We’ve seen this post-Dobbs struggle with Trump in this election too. He has underperformed public polling consistently in the early 2024 states. He is facing an unprecedented revolt from more traditional Republicans. And now this struggle is showing up in what can only be described as anemic low dollar fundraising, the money needed to build a Presidential campaign in our system, and in high dollar fundraising too (from CNBC):

The drop in Trump’s small-dollar donations is magnified by a second problem: Many wealthy Republican donors have yet to commit to giving millions of dollars toward a pro-Trump political action committee, or to using their extensive networks to raise money for the campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.

Beyond Trump-specific entities, some donors are also hesitant to fund the Republican National Committee, or a newly created joint fundraising committee that will raise money for the RNC, Trump’s campaign and dozens of state GOP parties, according to people briefed on the matter.

Their reluctance stems, in part, from concerns that the RNC will use the money not to help elect Republicans, but to pay for Trump’s extensive legal fees, sources said.

Republican leaders insist they have no such plans. But recent developments within the Trump campaign and the party suggest that donors’ concerns might be warranted.

Friends, Donald Trump is the worst candidate to run for President in our history. MAGA is a failed politics and just keeps losing. Based on all this new reporting, it appears an awful lot of Republicans agree, and Trump’s Presidential campaign is already in serious, serious trouble.

New Biden-Harris Latino Campaign Begins This Week - The Biden-Harris campaign is launching its national Latino effort this week, and kicking it off with a series of ads. An English version of the first ad is below, as is some background on the campaign. Adelante!

Today, Biden-Harris 2024 is launching its first Latino-focused ad of our $30M spring advertising buy, building off Team Biden-Harris’ historic investments to date into Hispanic media. The ad, which will run in English, Spanish, and Spanglish, coincides with today’s launch of Latinos con Biden-Harris – an organizing program designed to reach and mobilize Latino voters across the country to reelect President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The new ad will run concurrently in English as “Only One Choice,” Spanglish as “One Opción,” and in Spanish as “Una Opción,” underscoring the stark choice facing Latinos in November. As the ad lays out, this election will determine whether insulin costs $35 a month or hundreds, whether women have the freedom to control their own bodies or doctors go to jail for performing an abortion – that’s the difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

This ad campaign will target bilingual audiences in battleground states across radio, digital, and TV. The ads have been recorded with regional based accents to reflect the diversity of Latino communities in the battleground states. On TV and radio, the campaign will focus placements in news-oriented and lifestyle programming on broadcast and cable networks like CNN en Español and Galavisión, and on programs like La Mesa Caliente. In addition to WAPA, Univision, and Entravision-owned stations, the campaign will also target Latino-owned outlets like Latino Media Network. On digital, placement will focus on video platforms, including OTT, OLV, YouTube, and El Tiempo Latino.

“President Biden has spent his time in office fighting for Latinos and delivering on the issues that matter most to them and their families. With a strong record to run on, our campaign is making sure we are doing the work to earn our community’s trust and support once again in this election,” said Biden-Harris 2024 Campaign Manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez. “While Donald Trump openly attacks our community and has put forth an agenda that is openly anti-Latino, it’s more important than ever that our community knows what’s at stake and who’s fighting for them. This ad does just that – spotlighting how President Biden has delivered for Latinos and reminding voters just how destructive a second Trump presidency would be for our community.”

WATCH “ONLY ONE CHOICE,” “ONE OPCIÓN,” AND “UNA OPCIÓN” HERE

Are We Better Off? Hell Yeah, Part 3,732 - Yesterday I posted about a new Axios articles showing how remarkably strong the American economy has been under Biden. Here’s a bit more on that from The Economist:

You have to marvel at America’s economy. Not long ago it was widely thought to be on the brink of recession. Instead it ended 2023 nearly 3% larger than 12 months earlier, having enjoyed one of the boomier years of the century so far. And it continues to defy expectations. At the start of this year, economists had been forecasting annualised growth in the first quarter of 1%; that prediction has since doubled. The labour market is in rude health, too. The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 25 consecutive months, the longest such spell in over 50 years. No wonder Uncle Sam is putting the rest of the world to shame. Since the end of 2019 the economy has grown by nearly 8% in real terms, more than twice as fast as the euro zone’s and ten times as quickly as Japan’s. Britain’s has barely grown at all.

America’s expansion is all the more striking when you consider the many things that could have killed it. As the Federal Reserve has fought inflation the economy has endured the sharpest rise in interest rates since Jimmy Carter was in the White House. The covid-19 pandemic, an intensifying trade war with China and the fight against climate change have together reshaped supply chains, labour markets and consumer preferences. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have aggravated geopolitical tensions and worsened the strains on the global trading system.

For a reminder about how bad things were under Trump, let’s turn to comedian Sarah Cooper in this video from April, 2020. It’s important to watch.

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - New resources for your viewing, listening and reading pleasure:

Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him

The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’

Video Presentations - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election, Hopium’s 1st Birthday!

New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan

Thurs, March 21st 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Come join me this Thursday for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It is a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation this Thursday, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared on Friday.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you can do right now, today:

Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

So far we’ve raised $167,000 from 2,209 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having there.

So far we’ve raised $119,000 from over 1,511 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all!

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $61,000 from over 925 of you - thank you all!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 overall subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 48,000 today), and we’ve already hit our goal of 6,000 paid subscribers! With your help we can hit our big subscriber goal, keep growing our community, and keep bringing the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people. You can also become a paid subscriber which helps us grow here.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon