Biden Leads in 6 New Polls, The Booming American Economy, The Republican Party Is Broke and Broken

Big Day Today - With Dems at 1pm ET, Ruben Gallego at 8pm - Join Us!

Happy Thursday all. Got a few things for you today:

2 Events Today - Register, Join Us!

1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Join me this afternoon for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It’s a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared here in the coming days.

8pm ET - Ruben Gallego Joins Us Live - Excited that my good friend Ruben will be joining us for a live update on his campaign tonight. Register for the event here; donate if you can; and if you can’t make it live a recording will be here for everyone on Friday morning. We already have over 600 RSVPs for tonight - look forward to seeing everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stock Markets Soar On Fed Announcement It Still Expects Three Rate Cuts This Year - From Politico this morning:

After weeks of creeping doubt, the Federal Reserve is giving the markets just what they want.

The Fed is signaling that it will stick to its plan to cut interest rates three times this year even as it projects even stronger economic growth. Stocks soared Wednesday after the central bank revealed its new outlook, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record highs.

Chair Jerome Powell, by staying the course, is nipping fears that the Fed would start to walk back its outlook for rate cuts this year. “No cut” talk had been seeping into the financial discourse thanks to a recent series of surprisingly strong readings on economic growth and accelerating inflation. That raised doubts after months of indications that price pressures were easing.

Powell’s new message — a kind of economic and financial win-win — is that the Fed is still proceeding with caution but not backtracking after January and February’s hotter-than-expected inflation reports. The Fed won’t ignore bad news, but it also won’t overreact, he said.

“They haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes-bumpy road toward 2 percent,” Powell said.

It’s clear listening to Powell that he’s confident in the Fed’s strategy to attack the last mile of inflation, despite his frequent acknowledgments of uncertainty and recent doubts among Fed watchers.

He expects inflation to come down via some mix of easing prices for goods, housing and services.

“Some combination of those three things, and it may be different from the combination we had before the pandemic, will be achieved and will bring inflation back down to 2 percent sustainably,” he said.

Powell said stronger jobs growth — a factor that’s fueled pessimism about cuts — is “not a reason for us to be concerned about inflation.”

“We want to be careful,” he said, as he explained the risks of cutting too soon or too late. “Fortunately, with the economy growing, with the labor market strong, with inflation coming down, we can approach that question carefully and let the data speak on that.”

Staying the course could also be a boon to President Joe Biden.

“I’m With Joe” - The Powerful New Steelworkers Ad - This is a very, very good ad for Joe Biden. The campaign has truly begun my friends and it is great to see:

As we discussed yesterday Joe Biden is in the midst of his best run of polling in some time. 6 post-State Of The Union polls show him with leads: (all via 538):

• 44-43 Economist/YouGov (new since yesterday)

• 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

• 44-43 Morning Consult (March 9-11)

• 46-45 Public Policy Research

• 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

• 45-44 Civiqs

And 3 more had him with leads prior to the State Of The Union:

• 47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation

• 51-49 Emerson

• 43-42 TIPP

The Economist poll average continues to have Biden 1 point ahead of Trump:

It’s pretty clear the race has a moved a few points towards Biden in recent weeks, and that we are now in a close, competitive election where neither candidate has a firm lead. Almost every poll taken in March has the election within margin of error - it’s close and competitive. It is wrong now to say that Trump leads, and the media needs to not replicate their 2022 red wave mistake of dismissing or ignoring data that doesn’t fit the Republicans are strong/Dems are weak narrative - particularly when we’ve been winning election after election of all kinds since Dobbs, and it’s been the Republican Party which has repeatedly struggled.

As I wrote yesterday, when you expand your consideration of the strength of the two candidates and two parties to include other ways of evaluating political strength, I think Trump is in trouble. His party is broke, and broken. It’s an unprecedented dumpster fire, not a juggernaut. From the Washington Post this morning, Trump lags behind Biden in cash reserves while legal bills mount:

President Biden’s campaign continues to boast a significant cash advantage over Donald Trump’s, as the former president juggles the burdens of fundraising for his bid to return to office and paying his mounting legal bills seven months before the general election…..

…..The Biden campaign demonstrated a clear fundraising advantage over Trump in filings Wednesday night, reporting $71 million in cash on hand to Trump’s $33.5 million — more than double his rival’s reserves. Biden’s campaign widened the gap from the end of January, when it led Trump’s campaign $56 million to $30.5 million.

The reports underscore the extent to which Trump’s legal troubles are putting a strain on his campaign. Save America, the political action committee that the Trump campaign has been using to pay the legal bills for the former president and many of his associates, spent more than it raised in February — with the vast majority of its spending going to legal costs.

The Save America PAC reported about $4 million in cash on hand at the end of February. It spent about $7 million over the same period, including $5.6 million paid to lawyers. Since the start of this year, Save America has spent $8.5 million on legal bills, and the Trump campaign has spent $1.8 million on such costs (that’s $10.3m in legal bills in just 2 months!!!!!)

There has been much discussion about whether this election will be a referendum on Biden or Trump. As I wrote last week, I think one of the biggest political developments in recent days has been the drying up of the GOP’s big attacks on Biden. Consider:

• The economy is remarkably strong, not weak

• Inflation has come way down, not soaring

• Crime, violent crime and murder rates are down across the US, not raging

• Domestic oil and renewable production is setting records, and US is more energy independent than in decades - there is no “war on energy” causing rising gas prices and loss of independence

• Democrats are for order at the border, they are for Trumpian chaos

• The “Biden crime family” narrative was a fake Russian info op, once again laundered by Republican useful idiots

• And now we see in the State of The Union Biden strong, smart and vigorous; and it turns out, of course, that Republican Special Counsel lied about Biden’s memory challenges

Republicans have no clear shot at him any more. There is no longer a strong case against Biden’s re-election. With that, I think what we are beginning to see is the election is increasingly becoming a referendum on Trump and not Biden. And that my friends is an election Republicans cannot possibly win.

Trump’s Attacks on American Jews - My friend Halie Sofer of the Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) went on CNN to respond to Trump’s ridiculous attacks on American Jews this week. Watch. She does a terrific job:

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - New resources for your viewing, listening and reading pleasure:

Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him

The “Trump Is A Strong Candidate” Bubble Is Bursting, The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’

Video Presentations - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election, Hopium’s 1st Birthday!

New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan

Here’s my appearance on Lawrence O’Donnell Tuesday night talking about the raging dumpster fire that is the GOP now:

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you can do right now, today:

Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started.

So far we’ve raised $171,000 from 2,000 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having there.

So far we’ve raised $125,000 from over 1,500 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all!

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $72,000 from over 1,100 of you - thank you all!

And be sure to come see Ruben tonight at 8pm ET!

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 overall subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 49,000 today), and thanks to all of you we’ve already hit our goal of 6,000 paid subscribers! With your help we can hit our big subscriber goal, keep growing our community, and keep bringing the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon