Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Savoring Our Big Wins, The Democratic Party Is Strong, Ongoing Republican Betrayal
Congratulations Everyone On Two Really Strong Elections In A Row
Happy Friday all, and a happy Friday it is! A few things today:
Savor Our Wins, The Democratic Party Is Strong - So, some reminders as we head into the weekend (and be sure to read my comprehensive analysis from yesterday):
In the last 4 Presidential elections we’ve averaged 51% of the vote, Republicans 46%. 51-46 (+5). In the last 8 Presidential elections Democrats have won more votes in 7, and Republicans have only topped 48% once, in 2004, which was the last time they won the popular vote - 20 years ago. The last time we averaged 51% over 4 elections was in FDR’s 4 elections from 1932 to 1944. America today is a center-left country.
We’ve now have “won” the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023 elections. It’s a remarkable run. Our performance since the spring of 2022, in all kinds of elections across the US, even in red states like KY and OH, has been extraordinary. MAGA is a failed politics, the Republican Party is broken, and I am deeply optimistic about next year.
The resounding defeat of Youngkin’s 15 week abortion ban “compromise” was devastating for Republicans, for they head into 2024 with no clear way of mitigating the ongoing, deep damage the stripping of rights from women is doing to their party. It’s why we fought so hard in Virginia these past few months - we simply had to defeat the 15 week ban. For more on how cental this debate has become to our politics see Tom Bonier’s terrific new op-ed in the New York Times, American Elections Are About Abortion Now.
Polling, should we be worried? I’m not. Just this week two large sample, serious polls had Biden up 48-44 (+4), and 47-45 (+2), and Navigator has found Congressional Dems gaining substantial ground in the battlegrounds. We have work to do, no doubt, but keep in mind that to believe Trump is leading, or in the high 40s or low 50s would put this horrible man in a place no Republican Presidential candidate has been in 20 years, at the same time Democrats are winning everywhere and gaining ground in the House battleground. I just don’t buy it. I think we are in a close race now, with a much clearer path for us to gain, grow, expand and win in 2024 than Trump. I am confident that once our coalition is presented with a binary choice of Trump and Biden (Jan, Feb, March next year) that much of our coalition will come home, and we will then have a long campaign and strong arguments to bring the rest home, expand and get to 55 next year.
Given Our Ongoing Win Streak, Is It Possible Polling Is Not Capturing How Americans Really Feel About The Economy and Their Lives? - I am going to be coming back to this idea in the coming months but a reminder of this data from YouGov/Economist and the Conference Board I’ve been sharing of late that shows far more contentedness than is conventional wisdom:
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today? Satisfied 64%, Dissatisfied 35%
How happy would you say you are with your current job? Great deal/somewhat 80%, A little/not at all 19%.
Do you think your family income will increase or decrease in 2024? Increase 45%, stay the same 41%, decrease 15%.
Do you consider yourself paid fairly or underpaid in your job? Paid fairly 56%, Underpaid 38%.
I’ve been busy of late, and here are a variety of ways to dive deeper into this all this analysis:
Video Presentation - My 2023 Election Recap With Sam Cornale of the DNC
Words/News/Magazines - Ron Brownstein in the Atlantic, Republicans Can’t Figure It Out, and Will US voters believe they are better off with Biden? (Financial Times), which includes this passage:
“We know that when people are informed, the appraisal of Biden goes up,” says Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg. “That is what campaigns are for. I think we will be successful at being able to tell our story.”
There are other moving parts that could work in Biden’s favour, particularly in an expected rematch with Trump. While economic sentiment will be a “major issue” in next year’s election, argues Rosenberg, voter concerns about Trump, who is fighting a series of legal battles, are likely to outweigh any malaise about the cost of living, pointing to last year’s midterm elections when Democrats outperformed expectations despite poor polling numbers and high inflation.
“There is something that has been more powerful than disappointment in Joe Biden in our politics, which has been fear of the extremism in the Republican party,” adds Rosenberg. “That has really been the driving force in the last three elections and is likely to be next year as well.”
Analysts point out that with one year to go many voters are not yet thinking much about the 2024 election, which means the public focus remains on Biden. “The prospect of a Trump presidency is a lot more remote than voters feeling the pinch right now,” says Shulman from Beacon Policy Advisors. “But as the election draws nearer, and people go into their camps and the alternative starts to rise . . . I think that will change how people view Bidenomics and their views of the economy in general.”
Dems Just Keep Winning - Listen to Vivek Explain How Strong We Are - Congrats Everyone!
Hillary Clinton On The View About Israel-Gaza - Our former Secretary of State did a very good job at providing some context and history to the current conflict in an appearance on the View this week. It’s 8 minutes long but worth the time.
The Republican Party’s Ongoing Betrayal of America - Yesterday, once again, Democrats in the Senate tried to break the Tuberville blockade, and once again the Putin pawn from Alabama shot down every nomination. Here’s an example of how it went down:
The rancid Tuberville blockade has to be understood as only one part of what appears to be a coordinated campaign to undermine the United States and our democracy in a time of rising global instability and challenge. Right now Republicans are:
Almost certainly going to shut down the government next week, harming our economy and undermining our military readiness
Blocking hundreds of Pentagon appointees, weakening our military and encouraging our adversaries to challenge us across the world./
Blocking over 60 State Department appointments, including 37 Ambassadorships and the Ambassadors to Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. Makes is far harder to achieve diplomatic solutions to our global challenges.
Blocking critical cybersecurity legislation, turn off a DHS program called Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS), and are now working to terminate DHS programs to counter use of drones by terrorists here in the US and the office which works to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction against the American people. What possible justification is for any of this?
Blocking the appointments of US Attorneys, as a way of weakening the Department of Justice and the rule of law more broadly
Fighting additional aid to Ukraine, once again appeasing Putin and enabling Ukrainian genocide; holding hostage aid to Israel. In recent days Trump has made it clear he intends to withdraw from NATO if he comes to power.
Excusing and covering for Trump’s theft and wanton dissemination of America’s secrets, which is almost certainly the most significant national security breach in US history.
Elevating Insurrectionists including a man who was the one of the primary architects of the Republican Party’s effort to overturn the 2020 Presidential election and end American democracy to the Speaker’s Chair.
As we head into 2024, in every way possible, I would much rather be us than them.
Keep working hard all - Simon