Welcome New Subscribers!/Hopium Community Gathers on Dec 13th, 7pm EST
Adopt this rallying cry at every opportunity:
"We can’t just win in 2024, we need to win big, and make this election a clear repudiation of this malevolent, illiberal politics that poses such a threat to freedom and democracy here in America and all around the world."
Voters for tommorow is an amazing organization to support for the youth vote,mi would push that as a great way to get involved and for donations
Thank you for reinforcing that the seemingly small contributions we make can add up to big changes. Some days I feel like I’m standing at the base of the mountain looking up. I come here every day to hear you say “Next step. Let’s go!” Your confidence and guidance mean a lot to us.
When is Biden going on the offensive. He has done a great job but nobody seems to understand it.
Thanks as always, Simon, for your optimistic message. I believe we absolutely will take back the House in 24 in a big way. I am worried about the Senate, however. Is maintaining at least 50-50 a possibility? Do we have any realistic pick up opportunities? I'd appreciate your thoughts.
Simon, this is excellent! I'm so glad to see you focusing the energy of this Hopium community on critical opportunities that we can win.
Here's one anecdote to help your readers think about what's possible in North Carolina. Others can share their stories about successes and opportunities elsewhere.
I volunteer with All In for NC. This year we supported Drew Kromer's Mecklenburg County Democratic Party by making 10,000+ phone calls. We turned out volunteers who helped canvass and GOTV in Huntersville NC, as a test case of the new MeckDems strategy. They flipped a Republican mayor and 6-seat town council to 100% Dem. (Many firsts here for Dems, women of color, and more). In the process they raised turnout from 17% to 27%. That is +10% turnout. (!!)
Now apply that +10% turnout to Mecklenburg County as a whole, which has 320,000+ registered Dems. 30K+ additional Dem votes should give NC a Democratic Governor, Lt Gov, Atty General, etc in 2024. Add in some more Dem votes from Mecklenburg's unaffiliated voters (295K) and we are close to swinging NC for Biden/Harris.
Yes, we need to find 10,000 volunteers and another $1M in funding. But that's doable. Winning is doable. And we are working on it now.
I'll guess that in all your target areas there are people working now to achieve your goals. This is what makes this moment so exciting. We are strong, focused, and already working on it.
Thanks for your enthusiasm. It really helps.
Simon, we would love to talk to you about the possibility of working together on some open and challenger House races. We'd love to share our thoughts and see if we can do something in partnership. Dale from Force Multiplier
On the topic of youth engagement...
I am a donor and volunteer for The Civic Center (www.thecivicscenter.org) which has the stated goal of registering every HS student before they graduate. Their main program is to provide the resources for the students to organize Voter Registration drives at their schools in the fall and the spring. But they also have piloted postcard campaigns with volunteer writers to get students to register and then in a follow-up postcard camaign get those students to encourage their friends to register.
Recently, I got an email about a new test program focused on the parents of students in AZ who will be turning 18 before the election in Nov 2024. It is a combination information and persusion campaign to get the parents to encourage their kids (and their kids' friends) to pre-register early in the year since AZ permits this. It is in the form of a form letter to which you print and then hand write the provided supplemental message and also handwrite the envelopes. Very much in the "Vote Forward" mode. Timing is to mail out the letters in January. You can request 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, or 200 names and addresses using the request form found here:
Love ALL of this - and encouraged to see you highlight Florida and Texas as potential expansion states! Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are both deeply unpopular incumbents, and I hope their Democratic challengers will bind them to the equally detested current Supreme Court that killed Roe.
Re North Carolina - Want to highlight an online event happening tonight: Winning North Carolina Starts With Mecklenburg County, with Guests including Senator Raphael Warnock and Rep. Jeff Jackson. Here's the link to register: https://www.mobilize.us/swingbluealliance/event/589406/ And here's the link to donate: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ainc_for_ncdems?refcode=MFD
As for growth opportunities, I would be interested in learning about Colin Allred's Senate campaign. I have heard him mention in interviews that he was trying to focus on registering Hispanic voters in Texas as central to his efforts. If would be interested in learning more about those efforts and how is best to help. Unfortunately the only info I regularly get about his campaign is text 3 times a day asking for money.
Shouldn't we think about some kind of expansion and growth opportunity in Ohio before FL, and for sure before TX? We have allies and assets in Ohio, like David Pepper on organizing, Senator Brown for election focus, and continued push back on the GOP state legislative push back on abortion, to make further gains and consolidate and reinforce the infrastructure we helped to create this year. I also think the data suggests Ohio is more purple than either TX or Fl in terms of the medium term opportunities for expansion and growth.
One thing our little grassroots group is doing is starting now to address postcards to Dems and lean-Dems in our county. We'll write in the message later, but starting now means we can do a lot more postcards than if we wait. We've also written thank-you postcards to candidate who ran, even if they didn't win. We're searching for a candidate to run against our very MAGA Congressman.
This is great, Simon! Thanks for showing up for NC. For FL, I'd encourage folks to join postcardstovoters.org
We are writing to FL Dems with to re-enroll them in Vote By Mail, which increases turnout dramatically.
Here is what PTV says about that:
If you've written postcards to Florida Democrats encouraging them to enroll in Vote By Mail, you are already familiar with the proven case for VBM as a way to bank votes. Feel free to skip ahead if that's your experience with our sincere gratitude for writing with us on our third statewide VBM enrollment push in the Sunshine State.
If you're new or you'd like a bit of a refresher, thank you for approaching this at-home activism opportunity with an open mind and willingness to be part of what will take longer than a year to accomplish our mission: to re-enroll 2 million Florida Democrats in VBM who were, because of a law passed in 2022 by the FL GOP legislature and signed by Republican Gov. DeSantis, purged from the Vote By Mail rolls at the top of 2023.
Vote By Mail enrollment in Florida used to be permanent when Democrats held power there. Republicans changed that to make new enrollments expire after four years. They grandfathered everyone who'd been enrolled in VBM up to that point. Which, at the time, was majority Republican voters. How convenient, right?
When it became clear how large a role voting by mail was for Democratic turnout, the FL GOP cut that expiration from four to two years. Now, they've forced everyone off the VBM rolls and are making the voters discover for themselves that they need to re-enroll. They didn't budget for any voter mailings to make it easy for them to learn about the re-enrollment requirement. Imagine how many voters who'd been part of that grandfathered group who may not even learn about Spring and Summer municipal elections until they see the results on the news.
Postcards to Voters volunteers have partnered with the Florida Democratic Party twice before and coordinated with them and key County Democratic Executive Committees to organize statewide VBM enrollment. In both of those exhaustive efforts, we targeted Democrats who were already registered to vote but had not enrolled in VBM. Now with everyone reset, we have a different strategic approach.
We will first write to the 2.1 million Democratic voters who had actually cast ballots by mail letting them know that they must now RE-enroll. They're still able to make a phone call to their county Supervisor of Elections (SOE) without needing to go to a web site, fill out and mail a request form, or go in person. Just one phone call to make the request, verify their voter registration, and they'll be set for two years.
We're aiming to write to all 67 counties so that we can flip Florida back to the blue column and secure those electoral votes. We have enough time to meet this ambitious goal. We've done it before. It aligns with our mission to strengthen the habit of voting among Democrats so that more Democratic candidates win up and down the ballot across the country.
And at least for this first pass statewide, every single voter we write will have already enjoyed the convenience and ease of voting securely by mail. Unlike most other postcarding campaigns we've run, this time you can be assured that the highest percentage of postcard recipients will follow through on your friendly reminder. With postage costing what it does these days, the prospect of having the highest call to action yield for your time and donated postage with turnout benefits that will be realized for every type of election for up to two years is pretty amazing.
How robust is the Democratic Party's localization and media accessibility resources? Is there any dedicated staff (either internal or contracted) to subtitle, caption, describe and dub campaign materials?
Language and sensory disabilities can each provide barriers for accessing the messaging to make an informed choice. In many ways, taking these steps shows more commitment to inclusion for those audiences than representation does.
Leaving this here again re special election in NY-03
9,000 18-year olds can determine the special election to replace George Santos in NY-03
"Flipping The House - I’d like to pick between 6 and 10 open seat and challenger races for the House, and focus on helping them win in 2024."
I want to advocate for CA27 to be one of your target districts. In 2020, the last presidential cycle, we came within less than 1,000 votes of flipping the seat. Since redistricting, the area has become more Democratic. In 2022, the NRCC and other Republican groups outspent our candidate by $10 million. This D+4 seat is vital to taking back the house.
To win the seat, we need to mobilize Democratic voters in the Antelope Valley part of the district. Our current rep, Mike Garcia, is a MAGA Republican flying under the radar. He is an election denier with an ultra-conservative voting record who has done an excellent job staying out of the media's gaze. The voters in the district need to understand who he is and how far off he is from our district's values.