Some Thoughts About What We Are Going To Do Together in 2024 - It's All About Expansion, Growth, Getting to 55
Welcome New Subscribers!/Hopium Community Gathers on Dec 13th, 7pm EST
Friends, a few things today:
Some Toplines
The Economy Is Remarkably Strong. Period. Stop The Bullshit.
Great Deep State Radio podcast on current political moment (Audio pod)
Some Thoughts About What We Are Going To Do Together in 2024 - It's All About Expansion, Growth - The very first piece I did for Hopium when we launched back in March was Get to 55: Expanding Our Coalition, The Youth Opportunity. It argued that the 2024 election cycle should be viewed as one of expansion and growth for our coalition. That MAGA’s extremism had created an unprecedented opportunity for the American center-left to go on offense, and take away geographic and demographic terrain now available to us. And in 2023 that’s what happened - we took away the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat; Jacksonville and Colorado Springs, two of the largest GOP led cities in the country; and the Virginia state house, seat legislative seats in New Jersey and school board and municipalities across the country. Governor Beshear grew his margin in Kentucky, and we took away the six week abortion ban in Ohio. We got to 56% in that Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, a 57% in Ohio, twice, blocked a 15 week ban in Virginia, and dealt Glenn Youngkin a very significant political blow. It was a very good year for us, a blue wave year all across the country. Congratulations everyone, we did a lot of good together this year.
This strong performance in 2023 followed our remarkable performance in 2022 where we gained ground in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NM, PA over 2020; we got to 59% in CO, 57% in PA, 55% in MI, 54% in NH; and picked up a US Senate seat, 4 state legislative chambers and 2 governorships. Like 2023, 2022 was a year of expansion and growth for us.
As we look towards 2024 I want this community to focus on pragmatic expansion and growth opportunities and not just follow the herd. There will be a lot of money spent in 2024 - where can we add the most value, move the needle, make the biggest difference? Here are some of my initial thoughts:
The Presidential - we should all be giving to Biden, and volunteering. This is job #1 in 2024. Where I want to focus our efforts within that national campaign is promoting youth engagement and getting to 55, winning North Carolina and being info warriors for our democracy.
Expansion States - After North Carolina, the next two Presidential battleground states available to us are big ones, Florida and Texas. Both may also have critical Senate races next year. I want to explore ways we can play a role in each of those states in 2024. In Florida we are going to give a significant look at the ballot initiative to roll back the DeSantis 6 week abortion ban (like in Ohio). In Texas, I am open to ideas and opportunities for engagement.
Flipping The House - I’d like to pick between 6 and 10 open seat and challenger races for the House, and focus on helping them win in 2024. We can and should flip the House in 2024, and money and volunteer time goes much further in pick up House races than in well funded state wide races. So high valued added here. I’ve begun the research process to narrow down these races and will be sharing an initial list for comment soon.
Seize Other Opportunities As They Arise - While there won’t be that many elections in 2024, when opportunities arise we will give them a serious look. Currently I am looking at the US House special election in NY to replace George Santos, and an important January Florida state house special election pick up opportunity in HD-35. We have a very good candidate there, Tom Keen, who can and should win. Would be a great way to kick off 2024.
So, in 2024, together, we would work on expanding the Presidential battleground, growing our national coalition/getting to 55, and becoming much much louder; investing in the next two battleground states, each of which may have a US Senate expansion opportunity; taking away the US House away from MAGA and the extremists; and seizing opportunities as they arise. To me 2024 needs to be another year of offense, growth, expansion. Why? Because Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off, the Democratic Party is strong and winning elections across the US, and they have Trump - the worst and most dangerous candidate for President in our history.
In 2018 we took the US House away from them. In 2020 we took away the Presidency and the Senate. In 2022 we took away far more from them than anyone thought possible, and dramatically strengthened our position in the Presidential battleground. In 2023 we took things away from them all across the country, including the six week abortion ban in Ohio. In 2024 we need to stay on offense and keep taking stuff away. We need to do this because the opportunity is there, and because if we do, and get to 55, it will be seen as a national repudiation of MAGA, something critical to loosening it’s dark grip on the Republican Party. We can’t just win in 2024, we need to win big, and make this election a clear repudiation of this malevolent, illiberal politics that poses such a threat to freedom and democracy here in America and all around the world.
These are some initial thoughts about what we might be able to do together in 2024. To be clear I don’t expect all of you to do every one of these things - just the things that you want to do, also recognizing that many of you have other organizations you are part of that will also have ambitious plans for next year. But what we just did in Virginia inspired me go to a bit bigger in 2024 than I was thinking, because when called, so many of you answered and together we made a huge difference in what was a really consequential win. There is a lot of power in this emergent Hopium community, perhaps more than I understood, and I want to use it wisely and effectively next year.
I have left the comments open for everyone in the community to offer their feedback. We will also be talking about this sketched out plan in our general gathering on the 13th and our paid subscriber gathering on the 21st. Looking forward to hearing from you; and even more importantly, I’m looking forward to doing what needs to be done for our great country, with all of you proud patriots, next year.
Keep working hard all. Excited about all the good we are going to do, together, next year - Simon
Adopt this rallying cry at every opportunity:
"We can’t just win in 2024, we need to win big, and make this election a clear repudiation of this malevolent, illiberal politics that poses such a threat to freedom and democracy here in America and all around the world."
Simon, this is excellent! I'm so glad to see you focusing the energy of this Hopium community on critical opportunities that we can win.
Here's one anecdote to help your readers think about what's possible in North Carolina. Others can share their stories about successes and opportunities elsewhere.
I volunteer with All In for NC. This year we supported Drew Kromer's Mecklenburg County Democratic Party by making 10,000+ phone calls. We turned out volunteers who helped canvass and GOTV in Huntersville NC, as a test case of the new MeckDems strategy. They flipped a Republican mayor and 6-seat town council to 100% Dem. (Many firsts here for Dems, women of color, and more). In the process they raised turnout from 17% to 27%. That is +10% turnout. (!!)
Now apply that +10% turnout to Mecklenburg County as a whole, which has 320,000+ registered Dems. 30K+ additional Dem votes should give NC a Democratic Governor, Lt Gov, Atty General, etc in 2024. Add in some more Dem votes from Mecklenburg's unaffiliated voters (295K) and we are close to swinging NC for Biden/Harris.
Yes, we need to find 10,000 volunteers and another $1M in funding. But that's doable. Winning is doable. And we are working on it now.
I'll guess that in all your target areas there are people working now to achieve your goals. This is what makes this moment so exciting. We are strong, focused, and already working on it.
Thanks for your enthusiasm. It really helps.