Sunday Hopium - We Are Stronger Now
Trump got blown out in the November elections. He lost the shutdown fight. And now the Epstein scandal has exploded - Republicans are right to be panicking.
Happy Sunday all. After a tumultuous few weeks in our politics I’ve been trying to have something that feels like a normal weekend. I just got back from the farmer’s market and because it has been so warm here this fall we are still getting fresh tomatoes and vegetables in mid-November - a glorious thing. Last night we broke in a new smoker my oldest son bought me for my birthday and made some wonderful pork chops. I am still harvesting my Fresno and Jalapeno peppers and our rose bushes continue to bloom……hope you are getting some time with family and friends after some wild weeks….
I look forward to seeing folks this afternoon in Kensington, Maryland (the event is sold out so no late RSVPs - sorry!). I’ll be live with Jen Rubin tomorrow morning at 915am EST on The Contrarian Substack, and we already have a wonderful set of interviews lined up for the week. So rest up peeps. Going to be another full and consequential week in our fight for a better day…..
As I survey the national political landscape what I see more than anything else this morning is opportunity. As he declines and grows weaker, we have even greater opportunity now to mitigate the damage he is doing, advance our agenda, and win back power. It is why our movement must grow more ambitious - for more is possible for us now.
Whatever your take is on what happened in the last few weeks one thing is very clear - we won the shutdown fight and Democrats are in a far stronger position today than we were two months ago. As I detailed in my weekly video and political analysis Democrats have gained ground against the Republicans across many measures - Party ID, the generic ballot, in the blow out November elections, in Trump’s continued decline in the polls. The entire electoral landscape has shifted between 7 and 12 points over the past year, and as I wrote yesterday Republicans are starting to panic about the erosion they are seeing.
A newly released poll from a right-aligned pollster in North Carolina found Roy Cooper up 8 points, 47-39, against the former Chairman of the RNC, and the generic ballot there shifting 6 points in the past two months (this is a BFD):
Momentum for Democrats is also showing up in races for the state legislature. In a generic ballot test, Democrats went from a 1.6-point deficit in September to a 4.1-point lead this month. The poll shows 47.3% of respondents saying they would vote for a Democratic legislative candidate, while 43.2% said they would support a Republican.
New Navigator data this week shows the damage the shutdown did to Trump:
In FiftyPlusOne’s Trump job approval track Trump went from -12 in the first day of the shutdown to -16 today, a 4 point decline:
And what is important for our internal conversations about the path forward (here’s my latest thinking on that) is that the meme out there that while Rs are eroding Democrats continue to be weak is simply no longer true. We just won statewide elections in CA, GA, ME, PA by more than 20 points. We had enormous, even historic margins in NJ and VA. We restored our traditional margins with young people and Hispanic voters in both NJ and VA. New, powerful - and very diverse - leaders have emerged, rising to the moment. The November elections were a huge blowout - everywhere - and a remarkable achievement by Democrats all across the country.
As Gallup showed us Democrats have gained 12 points in net party ID in recent months:
We’ve gained 8 points net in the generic ballot in the past year (and much more in some recent polls):
In recent weeks we’ve seen statewide polls showing us competitive or leading in critical 2026 battleground states - Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas. It’s confirmation of how much the 2026 battlefield has shifted towards us this year.
So for me the lesson of the fall so far is that when we fight him - the shutdown, the elections - we can beat him. It is why we should be more confident now, more ambitious. For he is weak now, and we are strong; he is losing, and we are winning; he is failing, and we are succeeding. All of this talk about “yes but Democrats are weak too” is simply no longer true; and repeating it at this point is doing MAGA’s work for them.
After surveying all the data available to us now, and letting the dust settle on these last few tumultuous weeks, we should be more confident in our ability to beat Trump in head to head confrontations, and approach this next phase of our battle with even greater ambition than we’ve had so far. Of course the battles ahead will be hard, as politics always is. Victory is not assured. But we are stronger now, and need to set our strategy accordingly.
Finally, I want to thank everyone here for all that you did to make the November elections a clear and loud repudiation of Trump; of staying in the fight these last weeks; and for all that you - the proud, plucky patriots of Hopium - will do to make sure we keep winning, and they keep losing in the consequential battles ahead.
In Case You Want To Do Some Work Today
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $51k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $93k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $237k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $191,000 raised - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!
North Carolina and Ohio - Learn more about our 2026 opportunities in Ohio in this conversation with David Pepper, and in North Carolina in this new interview Anderson Clayton
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our emerging four part agenda and for releasing the Epstein files:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
Release the Epstein files
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so.
- Simon
Please shine a light on the last Congressional election of 2025 here in TN-07! The Cook Report just downgraded the district from Republican to Leaning Republican. WHAT!? Democrat Aftyn Behn (pronounced Bain) is a strong progressive current State House Rep. with the backing of the DNC. She's up against a Trump-endorsed MAGA bootlicker. Early voting ends Nov. 26th, with the election on Dec. 2nd. www.aftynforcongress.com @aftynbehn.bsky.social
Self-report. I’m currently involved in the following actions, all under the umbrella of our local Indivisible team:
-Managing a Letters to the Editor campaign, signing folks up and following up with them so we have one letter to the editor published weekly in all the local newspapers.
-Member of a team that interviews subject matter experts on local negative impacts from the Big UGLY Bill and distributes the YouTube recording and printed transcripts to radio and print media throughout the county.
-Member of a Community Resistance team in my rural town that plans and executes actions to minimize the damage being done by this regime, including donations to food banks and pantries, writing to thank our steadfast members of Congress for fighting back, sending postcards, taking training on Rapid Response to ICE in our community. We have compiled a list of other action items to start working on, as well.
- Continuing to work on our local Indivisible Leadership team, organizing protests and other events to say NO KINGS and HANDS OFF our democracy and moderating two FB pages.
-I just signed up to deliver senior meals in my community.
All of this activity keeps me engaged and enthusiastic, because I don’t have time to dwell on the negative.