The 2024 Election is Close and Competitive - Neither Candidate Is Winning, But I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
Dow Breaks 40,000 For First Time - US Economy Is "Envy Of The World"
Happy Thursday all. Got a few things for you today:
The 2024 Election Is Close and Competitive - Neither Candidate Is Winning, Neither Is Where They Want To Be - In doing a lot of media these last few days I’ve been struck by how frequently commentators say “Trump is winning.” Is a baseball team “winning” when up 3-2 in the third inning of a game, or are they “leading”? What happens if it is 2-2 in the third inning? Media commentators need to course correct here for “Trump is winning” is adopting in my view an inaccurate, Trumpian spin on the current moment.
First of all I don’t think a fair look at the data right now allows one to even say that “Trump is leading.” Yesterday I wrote about how a majority of recent independent national polls have Biden leading; recent state polls have Biden ahead in AZ, MI, WI, and even in the terrible NYT polls this week Trump is not leading in the battleground states needed to get to 270 among likely voters; the polls that have gone into the state based polling averages have been full of right leaning polls and almost all are of registered voters where Trump does better. The notion that six months out Trump having single point leads in the polling averages in MI, PA, WI - when he has to win all three or he loses the election - translates into him “winning” is ridiculous, and folks need to stop saying it.
Since my post yesterday we’ve gotten three new national polls:
Reuters/Ipsos - Biden +3 with likely voters
Economist/YouGov - 43-44, Trump +1
Fox News - Trump 49, Biden 48 - Biden gains 4 points since last poll
Biden gains 4 in Fox, leads by 3 with likelies in Reuters/Ipsos. Adding these 3 to the 12 recent national polls I wrote about yesterday we find that Biden leads in 8 of these 15 polls, 4 are tied and Trump leads in 3 - all by one point. Senate and House polling remains very encouraging for Democrats, and we have our largest lead in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker in many months, having gained almost 4 points there this year. There is no way to look at this data and argue that Trump is winning or even leads now.
I went on CNN to talk about all this earlier today. Note that that the Trump spokesperson evokes “Trump always outperforms polls” as the fairy dust which makes Trump favored when we know that this year, in this election, Trump 2024 has been UNDERPERFORMING public polls, not overperforming. His argument is absurd and silly. Here’s the clip:
I don’t think Joe Biden’s team took this bold and confident step to get two debates on the books because they are desperate or in trouble. They did it because the election is close right now and they want to win. Ensuring that Donald Trump actually shows up at two debates, in a far more mature and adult format, in my view makes it more likely we win because we need voters to see Trump 2024 with their own eyes - a candidate who is far more extreme and dangerous; whose performance is far more erratic, wild, impulsive and disturbing; who has these six new things that many people don’t yet know about him that will be devastating once they become widely understood (rapist, fraudster/serial criminal, betrayer of the country, unprecedented corruption, ender of Roe/abortion extremism).
We also need voters to see Joe Biden for when in big moments - State of the Union, White House Correspondents Dinner - he has done a great job; and we know from polling that when voters are informed about his Presidency, and what he has done, his numbers improve. He has a very strong case to make for his Presidency, and he will be able to make it to all in June now, and not have to wait to the August Convention or fall debates.
It has been my take for many many months now that while the election was close today, Biden would gain as voters checked in and became more informed about their choices - which has happened. Biden and the Democrats have gained a few points over the past few months. Having a debate in June will accelerate the process of people checking in, and becoming informed, something that many of us believe will continue to benefit the President. An informed electorate is good for democracy, and in this election, is also very good for Joe Biden.
I remain optimistic for in addition to this dynamic, Democrats have significant financial and organization advantages over Trump and his motley GOP, and the deep and growing opposition to Trump inside the GOP is unprecedented and I think an existential threat to his candidacy. Watch Mitt Romney this week just saying what is so plainly obvious - that a man with Trump’s character simply should not be President:
I think what team Biden did yesterday in forcing these debates, and moving them up, was good for our democracy and the American people, and the Biden campaign itself. This was a bold and smart move, the kind of a move campaigns that win make. Here is the campaign statement on why those chose this path:
Finally, here is a segment on Morning Joe from yesterday talking about how ridiculous the NYT polling has become, and how in that Yahoo/YouGov poll a 45-45 election becomes a 7 point Biden lead if Trump is convicted in this current trial. Do watch - it’s worth your time.
Yes, six months out, in every imaginable I would much rather be us than them. But we have a lot of work to do, and I think yesterday’s debate deal will be waking a lot of folks up a lot earlier - making it far more likely we win.
Keir Starmer’s General Election Message - We are going to have an election soon in the UK. Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer released this video yesterday. Always interesting to see how our friends in Labour articulate their plans. I think it’s simple, smart and effective:
Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:
Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register
Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register
I will also note that I’ve been a little slow at getting back to those who’ve requested me for events for this summer. Between my daughter’s lacrosse play offs and graduation festivities this spring, and some critical travel dates that are still getting ironed out, I’ve been unable to commit to as many events as I hoped. Will try to get back to everyone soon - appreciate the patience all!
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - We are still raising money for and supporting three critical projects:
Thanks to the many thousands of you who have already contributed or volunteered. And also be sure to encourage your friends and family to subscribe to Hopium Chronicles!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Lingering questions:
Why does the news media write "porn star Stormy Daniels" but never "rapist Donald Trump"? Is it because it’s more OK to be a pussy-grabber and a rapist – and Trump is a role model?
The latest entry from historian Heather Cox Richardson, in her "Letters From an American", is highly relevant to President Biden’s continuing disadvantage with the news media. This goes a long way toward explaining why Biden is not receiving due credit for his administration’s great accomplishments. Cox Richardson points to a fascinating historical parallel.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-15-2024