MAGA has also imploded in Michigan. It is no where near the force it once was. The DeVos machine has broken down. They’ve taken down, eliminated, well liked moderate Republicans in Western Michigan, like Peter Meijer (part of the family that owns Meijer Thrifty Acres) and also done some really strange stuff with school boards,etc. Many Republican voting Michiganders that i know well do not like this crazy stuff. Also, the big city in Western Mich - Grand Rapids (the hometown of Gerald Ford)- has become substantially more democratic (because of transplants from Chicago) - the GOP has relied on huge vote totals in Western Michigan to try and win the state. I spend a lot of time in Holland, Michigan - home of Betsy DeVos and Erik Prince - and know Western Michigan well. The experts who are saying “MIchigan is in trouble” because of 200,000 Arab American voters in Detroit (who by the way are not going to vote just one way) don’t know really know Michigan. MIchigan and Wisconsin - while battlegrounds still - are going to be much more favorable this cycle for Biden/Harris (and Dems).
Thanks for that info; a lot of these "MI is in trouble" folks I run into at other sites are just folks with an axe to grind about the Middle East; I've been reading Adrian Goldsworthy's Rome and Persia....turns out conflict in this region goes back a bit. And there was a powerful little kingdom there the big powers were interested in using as an ally.....it was called Judea.
Agree with this astute comment. As I've written before there were 140,000 Arab American voters in MI in 2020 out of 5.2m votes cast. It broke about 90k Biden, 50k Trump, and assuming Biden loses half of his vote, and Trump loses some too given his wildly anti-Arab and Muslim policies, a reasonable estimate for the net loss for Biden is 35,000 votes, not 200-250k as many have written. Should we try to get it all back - yes. Is it likely to make the difference - no.
Thanks Alexandra. We should not view MI as in peril. Maybe, but we have a long way to go. While we want to win every vote we can, the Arab American vote is very small in Michigan, and is unlikely to be the margin either way.
Donald Trump and his congressional cronies represent the highest level of threat to our way of life. Watching their nihilistic behavior feels like a slow moving Reichstag fire.
There should be serious investigations of the threats – unknown as well as known – that Trump and his acolytes are leveling at Senators, Congressional Representatives, judges (and jurors), and their families(!). We know through anecdotal evidence from Republican Senators that this impacted the Senate vote during Trump’s impeachment trial.
In my opinion, such investigations need to involve comprehensive efforts by America’s intelligence agencies. Why? First, because it is an existential threat against American democracy. And second, because of the obvious hesitancy of those threatened to come forward.
We cannot have government by blackmail. We cannot have government being sabotaged by a self-styled "Shadow President".
.
And when the time comes, America most certainly CANNOT tolerate Trump ordering/blackmailing election officials, members of the Electoral College, or Congress to NOT CERTIFY President Biden’s re-election victory!
I watched the most recent 60 minutes segment with Anderson Cooper interviewing Andrew Hitt, attorney and former head of the GOP in Wisconsin, who says he went ahead with the fake electors scheme because he was “scared to death” of Trump and his followers. The fact we live in a country run by a shadow mob boss who uses threats of violence to get his way should be a huge story, just as ArticStones said above.
And some investigative reporters should do thorough research and compile a list of Republican politicians who have suspiciously-favorable loans from Russian financiers.
This is an important point! I just heard Michael Isikoff speak a few weeks ago (about his new book about Fani Willis) and he said that almost all political and investigative journalists know this - that GOP pols who don’t cooperate with Trump get threats (threats to them, their family etc). This is why they never vote against him. Also, the people doing the threatening are smart enough to intimidate while not crossing legal lines. Janet is right - Trump is a mob boss.
I just started getting Hopium in my inbox, and I love this column. It gives clear eyed, positive ideas about how to push forward in this incredibly scary and bizarre situation. I'm encouraging everybody I know to get on board.
I share your optimism, Simon. And I share your fear of Trump. But I do think shouting optimistic statistics from the rooftops is not resonating with a number of voters. This does not make them MAGA lunatics. They just don't see or feel all the good stuff we point to. Their daily lives don't feel very optimistic. Frankly, the positive messaging is kind of a turnoff for them. I think it makes them feel invisible. The louder our positive message, the bigger the turnoff. I wonder how to address this. Better messaging from Biden? From us?
Where in the world are you getting this view from? Please back it up with data. Telling people that we live in a great country, that we are making real progress on the challenges we face, that we are leading the world IS A PROBLEM? Stop it. It's ridiculous.
I also want to say, for those who advance this argument, is that if you are struggling in life, would you rather know that the nation and other are doing well or that everything is terrible? What conditions would make it more likely you lift yourself up and improve your station?
Shouting from the rooftops alone may not do it. Fortunately reciting the optimistic points is only part of what Hopium is about ;) - it's also about action, organizing ahead of elections. Over the last several months people have canvassed, called, post-carded etc in several elections - from Virginia's assembly election to NY-3 last week. With sufficient organizing, that's where the real difference is made - and it will make a very crucial difference in the fall. All of these activism communities didn't exist in 2016 & are even stronger now than they were in 2020. Plus I'm less convinced by the day that polling can accurately capture the "mood" of the electorate as a whole. Action is the key.
I think I have shared this anecdote before, but I was a poll greeter for the Dems in our municipal election last fall here in Mecklenburg Co., NC. One of the goals was to convince people to vote for the Democraticly endorsed school board candidates (where 13 people were running for 3 at-large seats) so we could shut out the 3 under-the-radar "Moms for Liberty" candidates. Most of the people at the early voting site (who weren't avoiding me) had either gotten the message or wanted to know who the MfL candidates were so they could avoid them. But I did persuade a pleasant older lady who was a retired teacher to vote for the Democratic candidates despite her never having voted for a single Democrats in her lifetime.
Joe can you elaborate by what you mean about "Their daily lives don't feel very optimistic"? Virtually every non-politically engaged person I know generally feels good about their life. They are going out regularly and doing more social activities. To the extent people in my life are not optimistic it is about a specific topic like AI scares them or they are anxious about some specific news story.
For politically engaged people the only pessimism I hear is Dems saying either "The stuff Trump and the Republicans are saying sounds scary" or "the conflict in Palestine is going to sink our chances." For the Republicans it is just what ever Sean Hannity is complaining about that week.
Hi Joe, you make a lot of great points. I was a poll worker in a heavily Republican and MAGA community. They really responded well with the positive message because people are ready for a positive message. Look at any major news outlet and how they shape any narrative to make things sound and look terrible. But when they look at their own life thing's are better than 4 years ago. I disagree with your conclusion that they feel invisible. People are tired of all the negativity. Time to focus on the good things while working in reality on the tough problems.
For instance check out Parker Molloys recent substack post about New York Times distorting a neutral article about Bidens recent loan forgiveness into something much more negative.
Joe - I know this take. It’s something the Pod Save America Guys say. It’s really a crap take and not baed on data. People don’t feel the good news because they don’t know about it (because of how the media is). Biden, all of us are not suggesting saying to voters - you don’t know how you feel! The truth is that they are - the low engagement voters- not thinking about any of this at all and the issue is just getting to them with information that will motivate them to vote. No one here is saying we should be talking at people.
Other than people mistakenly thinking "the rate of Inflation being down" automatically leads to "prices being down", I am not seeing what you are talking about - except of course for the people who live in the Fox News bubble 24/7 and NOTHING will convince them to vote for Biden..
Great segment last night on Lawrence O'Donnell, as always.
Between what's happening in Alabama with IVF and in Florida with a wholly preventable measles outbreak thanks to a surgeon general who doesn't believe in science, the GOP's extremism is showing us its dangerous real-life consequences more each day. We rejected it in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and we'll keep doing it in 2024.
Just read Greg Sargent's terrific piece in The New Republic about No Labels entering meltdown mode. Sure hope he's right. Always thought their stated reason for being - to find common ground between the parties - was pure bunk. Joe Biden has passed more bipartisan legislation than any president in recent memory - something the mainstream media consistently ignores.
Part of the reason I discussed us making improvements in life span and health a major part of Biden's second term in my New Republic essay is that we have enormous advantages on health care right now and need to keep pressing our advantage.
Thanks for all of this -- and I don't see concern about Biden's apparent lack of concern about the IDF's deliberate slaughter of Palestinian civilians (OK, the IDF apparently thinks that there aren't any) and deliberate destruction of homes, infrastructure, colleges & a university, and hospitals in Gaza, plus Israel's cutoff of water, electricity, and food to Gaza. I don't mean Biden's words. I mean his continuing to send military materiel.
Morally, this is an outrage. As to domestic politics, this is suicidal. As to international law, this is immensely destructive. As to U.S. standing in the world, ditto.
As to REAL support for Israel, it isn't. Moody's has downgraded it. Norway's state pension fund has got completely out of Israeli bonds. Israel's GDP is down nearly a breathtaking 20%, on an annualized basis, since 7 October. As to REAL support for Jews worldwide, Netanahu, with Biden's support, has made every Jew less safe. I am not Jewish. But many dear friends are, and Netanyahu and Biden have no right to endanger them.
FYI I have been a Democrat for slightly longer than Speaker emerita Pelosi. I do not defend what Hamas did on 7 October. But I was a prosecutor. Palestinians are not a foreign nation. So 7 October was not an act of war. I think that you prosecute the perpetrators, and only the prosecutors. Quaint, I know.
Sarah, a few points: 1) I can't touch on every issue, every day, and this is a topic we have discussed a great deal here over the last few months 2) the statement that Biden isn't concerned about loss of life is an outrageous one and has no place here on this site. It's insulting and ridiculous. 3) I assume you are outraged that Trump and the Speaker are blocking the $9b in aid to Gaza that Biden has proposed and which passed the Senate last week
There is intense disagreement in our family about this issue, and I, and the overwhelming majority of Democrats, are backing the President in his management of this very difficult challenge. What disappoints me is how often the critics of the President overstate, exaggerate, lie and impugn. There is no need for that.
Great points and I hope our passionate friends see the bigger picture. Can anyone imagine what Trump's leadership would have looked like on October 7th?
We need to have serious and honest conversations (which have been happening as you shared, Simon). This is a huge challenge and I will trust Biden and the Democrats to properly respond because they will listen and stay grounded in facts. Especially over the MAGA parties authoritarian, hateful, and self serving approach.
The only thing that really concerns me about this is, though I also Trust Biden and the Democrats to properly respond, a large part of our coalition would not organically use the word Trust in their relationship with the party. We desperately need the "Bernie Wing" and young voters who are disengaged but share our values to vote.
I have started to think that the 3 sides of our media, Rightwing News, Mainstream Bothsideism, and Social Media outrage content, is shifting some segment of voters to a complicit/non-complicit dichotomy opposed to a which is a better choice.
Which means the Biden team has to become very effective at defining not voting and third party voting with being complicit with Trump, while finding a way to break the Biden=Netanyahu complicity perception that has been developing on ticktock and other social media. If something like a durable ceasefire does not emerge soon Biden may have to do something dramatic like go to the Knesset the way Netanyahu did with congress to Obama.
We need to counter the narrative that Biden can - with a call - end the invasion. It’s not true and is a false and un achievable narrative. I am 110% for stopping the bombing of Gaza but am sick and tired of the blaming of Biden and eliding over the clear manipulation of this issue by Russia/Iran and others (and overinflating the consequences of all of this).
I agree that you are correct that one phone call will not end the bombing, but it also appears that private pressure will not either.
At some point if Biden wants to break the Biden=Netanyahu perception that part of our collation incorrectly believes he will have to make a meaningful public separation. Not on background, not minor critiques, but acknowledged that Netanyahu does not want a two state solution and actively trying to jam Biden Politically. Israel and the United States might be Allies but Netanyahu is allies with MAGA. He has spent the last 20 years blocking piece talks and publicly embarrassing the Democrats.
If there was ever a good faith moment for the Democratic party to say Israel is our fried but we no longer believe Netanyahu is a friend of democracy and piece we are quickly approaching that moment. If Biden cannot or is unwilling he has to make inroads with a new voting block.
The other factor in all of this is another voting block - pro Israel (and anti Bibi) democratic and independent voters. This is why Trump is still hugging Bibi (hard) and saying he wants to turn Gaza into a parking lot. These pro Israel voters are very important in PA and FL and many house districts. And, they are just as activated as the Gaza activists and Biden also needs a fair share of them to win. The political calculus is complicated.
The 3rd party candidates are melting before our eyes. No Labels is falling apart. Maybe they get their act together, but I doubt it. This country hates MAGA, and no amount of Ezra Klein or Jonathan Alter handwringing about " he's too old" is gonna stop people from voting for Biden. If they vote Dem just to vote against MAGA, that is fine with me. The Rs are getting pummeled now over the IVF decision; hence trump is trying to come out and say something or other, but who can trust the guy behind the ending of Roe? Notice I did not waste time bothering to explain trump's position, if he even has a coherent one. It's not worth it.
I want to win by 10 points. I don't want to flink with young voters. I want to grow the coalition. There has been marginal decrease in young voter support it. They are consistently showing that they are the least enthused to vote.
When things are going well the youth tend to have other things to do; when things are going to hell in Vietnam or Iraq or their lives are upended by a pandemic worsened by an incompetent response, and thousands of them have lost family members as a result, they get fired up. Complacency can ruin us. Good thing for us, suburban voters hate MAGA, and that's where I think this thing is going to be won. Also, LGBTQ and abortion rights are very important to young people. Women especially. And the IVF ruling? A total disaster for the GOP.
It’s surprising how many people think President Biden can pick up the phone, call Netanyahu, and dictate Israeli policy. (Even 600,000 Israelis marching the streets couldn’t bend Netanyahu!)
And I am flummoxed as to why some Democrats continue to speak as though only Israel and the USA have any agency to make choices that impact this conflict.
The leaders of Hamas are not children – although they do continue to hide behind them. Hamas has agency, just as Israel does. Where in this discussion are the demands on Hamas??
People do not study history. A war is fought until the enemy surrenders. Hamas is not surrendering. Granted, this is an asymmetrical conflict, I'll concede that, and no one who is sane wants to see civilians harmed, though our own history has shown that our country is in no position to lecture anyone on this. No president is perfect; we stood by and even encouraged Indonesian genocide of leftists ( just the accusation was enough to get one killed; a convenient way to settle old scores ) in the 60's, Bill Clinton has said he did not do enough in Rwanda ( some 800,000 killed ) and of course W's war in Iraq....to dump on Biden for a conflict where we don't even have boots on the ground is disingenuous IMHO.
Excellent points! You sound like you do study history – which means you know what 9/11 means to the people of Chile. That was the day, in 1973, that Augusto Pinochet carried out the CIA-supported coup against the democratically elected government of Salvador Allende. And their 9/11 and its aftermath cost a helluva lot more lives than our 9/11.
Yes I know full well about Chile, my wife is from Colombia. What people do not realize here is that many South Americans did not really support Allende; he was too far left for the middle class, which my wife's large family considered itself, because they owned their own textile factory. The outrage was over his removal by coup rather than elections, and worse that the US had a big role in it. When talking to my wife's family, who are all solid Dems here but were Republicans in Colombia ( which is not the same as here ) there was real fear that there would be a "domino effect" in the rest of Latin America, threatening the middle class. But no one wanted to see him deposed by a CIA backed dictator. Because Chile had multiple parties and it was common for a president to have a plurality, Allende ascended with just 37 percent of the vote. But he was legally elected under the country's system. It's entirely possible that a more conservative leader would have been elected at a later time. But Chileans were denied that choice. Costa Gavras' brilliant 1981 film, Missing, explores this heartbreaking period. I still find it haunting all these years later.
Might you be able to give us a short list of good places and persons to work for/ donate. I get too many emails per day and hence... I am sorry to say I have reduced faith in each of them and or overloaded with messages.
My inbox is full and in short, I am nervous to act. I need better confidence quickly that I am making smart use of my time and $$ for the few I can personally assist. Yes, I am one of your members. OK... I thank you.
Richard G. Rosen Richard@rosenconvergence.com 503-704-8577. In Sarasota these day from Portland, Oregon. Past CEO of a mid size Brand -Interaction Marketing firm caring for Fortune 100+ clients world wide. Your assistance please to make a big difference.... on steroids.
I am not Simon, but one of his "4 things Biden should do now" is massive mobilization of young voters: Registering, peer networks to get each other to vote, Get Out The Vote measures of all kinds. To help this mobilization, key groups to support include:
As Simon identifies campaigns to support, he gives us readers links for taking GOTV actions. Tom Suozzi's victory was the most powerful and inspiring example yet. So watch for those.
Two other Substack sources, but you'll have to scroll through their posts to find action and donation opportunities -- which vary through time:
Similar to The Civic Center focusing on HS students, I have also donated to Campus Vote Project (https://www.campusvoteproject.org/) which focuses on college students.
I was recently on a call that had a presentation by Galvanize Action (https://www.galvanizeaction.org/?). There target audience is moderate white women and they create messaging that will persuade women on a variety of topics. They are extremely data driven which I like. After the call they sent out a link to their playbook so that you could check out the breadth of their messaging: https://playbook.galvanizeaction.org/
I have been living this way in my local communities politics and it is really effective. Nothing pisses attention seekers off more than ignoring them. Way too much noise out there. Let's work with the people that want to make positive change!
Slate? Seriously? Their articles are so bad I am afraid to bring up the site when anyone is home, lest they see some article about some prurient topic better suited to soft porn. And they have the nerve to ask for a paid subscription to boot. No thanks.
I read it and yes, he is confused! So….” Democrats have to first stop telling each other comforting lies about what’s actually happening out there.” I guess the massive grassroots effort is Dems in denial ?? Of course, not one mention of the effort.
"Confused" nails it. His Roosevelt U profile is so full of spelling/punctuation errors, I would be careful about taking any analysis of his at face value. As Einstein said, "Whoever is careless in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters."
I think some of these people think that if you aren't protesting on the streets of every single city that signals that Democrats are not engaged. I'm thinking of the recent NYT article were the author quotes maybe a half dozen people - none of whom are activists - about how Democrats are burned out. The author failed to recognize that finding Trump's theatrics exhausting is NOT the same as being exhausted and disengaged.
Guy argues that Dem “overperformance is baked into the polls now” but then Suozzi wins by by 5 more than the polling average. Trump wins NH by 10 points less than the final polling average. So strange how strongly “the sky is falling” contingent of the commentariat is fighting back. The fact that they are now trying to take down Simon’s arguments is a good sign of Hopium’s success (means it is working).
1) I am aware folks don't agree with me, and thanks fine. 2) Not OK for a journalist or commentator to write about my arguments without calling me up and giving me a chance to rebut them directly, as Ezra Klein did, to his credit. It's chickenshit stuff. 3) as Eric says, I am not going to take the time to rebut. I just do my work, share what I see and think, and work really hard to give you the best info and advice I can.
💙 Hopium! Working on postcards today with NEAZ Native Dems.✍️
And Republicans just keep giving us more “gifts”. Christopher Rufo is one of DeSantis’ top education advisors.⬇️
“So what? The pill causes health problems for many women. "Recreational sex" is a large part of the reason we have so many single-mother households, which drives poverty, crime, and dysfunction. The point of sex is to create children—this is natural, normal, and good.”
I really enjoy writing postcards with NEAZ Native Dems. They have an effective model for dealing with challenges of no internet and spotty cell service along with extremely low population density and dirt roads. And they are leveraging their tribal customs and identity to tailor effective messages to the audience.
Last night, my wife was at dinner with some friends, when the inevitable "But his age..." conversation came up. She used the "Rosenberg Mantra" to counter their arguments, as well as using some of the facts 'n' stats you often detail here. Once she made her case, they thanked her for providing them an alternative and positive perspective, and agreed that Biden was really the only reasonable choice for November.
Thanks again, Simon, for your analysis and presentation, necessary antidotes to the pessimism and bad reporting we continue to see around us.
Had the same thing happen on my morning walk; an older retired AA friend I hadn't seen for awhile, who tends to be a little on the conservative side because he gets upset at young men wearing their pants around their ankles ( something that has been going on since I taught in the inner city over 35 years ago, so , come on....my own kid went through a phase like that ) anyway, he was spouting all the usual lines ( he listens to Larry Elder, nuff said ) and "some people say " about the border and crime ( these are the topics they are pushing, even though they have lost on this issue already IMO ) and 'what has Biden done."..I pulled out my phone and showed him some stuff from here. He was like, well that's a lot to read right now. Told him we could sit at Dunkin Donuts and I would buy him a coffee and we could go through it all slowly....he said not today, but he was open to looking it all up himself. Gave him the link to this site.
I find that even people who don’t buy the Biden is too old line appreciate being introduced to Simon, as it gives them a script they can use to spread the word. Everyone has been very receptive.
Moreover, if our "doddering and senile old fool" keeps outmaneuvering the Republican leadership into bipartisan agreements that supposedly always are to the advantage of Democrats, what does that say about *their* Republican leadership?
I was just about to say the same thing! It’s also apparent in every Jordan Klepper bit he does when he interviews people at MAGA rallies. The best explanation for this comes from one of my favorite comedians. Trump is a feeling: https://youtu.be/tG6T3-aLcb4?si=CztGiXzRuchexYn0
First, thanks for all you are doing. New subscriber, and its terrific, and something I have widely circulated. My question: you have done a super job or warning us away from early polls and polls of poor quality. Most of the discussion has been about national polls. If one looks at the key swing state polls, the President trails in almost all, save PA. In some it’s close in others….phew! Much of this belies recent blue success in these states, but would love to hear more about what if any state polls are worth anything and any other thoughts about the swing states.
Simon has posted polls right here that show Biden winning in those very states; it is close, they are swing states. National polls don't mean that much to me; being ahead by 1 or 2 is not enough for a Dem to necessarily win the EC, the only game that counts. Kerry could have won the WH in 04 if he had taken OH, and would have lost the PV.
I have no data to back this up…. But I have a gut feeling that an assault on “recreational sex” could be problematic with….MEN? 🤷♂️😂
Not at all making light of the threat, especially for women’s reproductive rights, but when I saw that I started to choke on my drink. I have met some ultra faux-macho rural men in my life and work, and telling them sex can only be with a legally binding monogamous partner for the purpose of procreation will certainly cause some….#CognitiveDissonance 🤦♂️
On another note, given how Melania is keeping her distance, there are strong indications that Little Donnie ain’t gettin’ any. The Republican Party appears to be led by a serial adulterer who is now a very, very frustrated Incel.
Thanks for the laugh, PianoManSteve ! I’m just waiting for Republicans to make Charlotte, the pregnant stingray in a N.C. aquarium,asexually pregnant with four pups and no male companion, their poster child/pregnancy.🤣
a question: in your electoral calculations, do we need to get Michigan in order to win?
You've been spectacular on MSNBC --- just love that you have that platform now!!
A president who walked a UAW picket line is not losing MI
MAGA has also imploded in Michigan. It is no where near the force it once was. The DeVos machine has broken down. They’ve taken down, eliminated, well liked moderate Republicans in Western Michigan, like Peter Meijer (part of the family that owns Meijer Thrifty Acres) and also done some really strange stuff with school boards,etc. Many Republican voting Michiganders that i know well do not like this crazy stuff. Also, the big city in Western Mich - Grand Rapids (the hometown of Gerald Ford)- has become substantially more democratic (because of transplants from Chicago) - the GOP has relied on huge vote totals in Western Michigan to try and win the state. I spend a lot of time in Holland, Michigan - home of Betsy DeVos and Erik Prince - and know Western Michigan well. The experts who are saying “MIchigan is in trouble” because of 200,000 Arab American voters in Detroit (who by the way are not going to vote just one way) don’t know really know Michigan. MIchigan and Wisconsin - while battlegrounds still - are going to be much more favorable this cycle for Biden/Harris (and Dems).
Thanks for that info; a lot of these "MI is in trouble" folks I run into at other sites are just folks with an axe to grind about the Middle East; I've been reading Adrian Goldsworthy's Rome and Persia....turns out conflict in this region goes back a bit. And there was a powerful little kingdom there the big powers were interested in using as an ally.....it was called Judea.
Agree with this astute comment. As I've written before there were 140,000 Arab American voters in MI in 2020 out of 5.2m votes cast. It broke about 90k Biden, 50k Trump, and assuming Biden loses half of his vote, and Trump loses some too given his wildly anti-Arab and Muslim policies, a reasonable estimate for the net loss for Biden is 35,000 votes, not 200-250k as many have written. Should we try to get it all back - yes. Is it likely to make the difference - no.
Thank you for this comment! Great point as I would not have thought about that.
Thanks Alexandra. We should not view MI as in peril. Maybe, but we have a long way to go. While we want to win every vote we can, the Arab American vote is very small in Michigan, and is unlikely to be the margin either way.
Donald Trump and his congressional cronies represent the highest level of threat to our way of life. Watching their nihilistic behavior feels like a slow moving Reichstag fire.
There should be serious investigations of the threats – unknown as well as known – that Trump and his acolytes are leveling at Senators, Congressional Representatives, judges (and jurors), and their families(!). We know through anecdotal evidence from Republican Senators that this impacted the Senate vote during Trump’s impeachment trial.
In my opinion, such investigations need to involve comprehensive efforts by America’s intelligence agencies. Why? First, because it is an existential threat against American democracy. And second, because of the obvious hesitancy of those threatened to come forward.
We cannot have government by blackmail. We cannot have government being sabotaged by a self-styled "Shadow President".
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And when the time comes, America most certainly CANNOT tolerate Trump ordering/blackmailing election officials, members of the Electoral College, or Congress to NOT CERTIFY President Biden’s re-election victory!
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I watched the most recent 60 minutes segment with Anderson Cooper interviewing Andrew Hitt, attorney and former head of the GOP in Wisconsin, who says he went ahead with the fake electors scheme because he was “scared to death” of Trump and his followers. The fact we live in a country run by a shadow mob boss who uses threats of violence to get his way should be a huge story, just as ArticStones said above.
MAGA has become the party of death threats.
Death threats and kompromat.
And some investigative reporters should do thorough research and compile a list of Republican politicians who have suspiciously-favorable loans from Russian financiers.
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This is an important point! I just heard Michael Isikoff speak a few weeks ago (about his new book about Fani Willis) and he said that almost all political and investigative journalists know this - that GOP pols who don’t cooperate with Trump get threats (threats to them, their family etc). This is why they never vote against him. Also, the people doing the threatening are smart enough to intimidate while not crossing legal lines. Janet is right - Trump is a mob boss.
I just started getting Hopium in my inbox, and I love this column. It gives clear eyed, positive ideas about how to push forward in this incredibly scary and bizarre situation. I'm encouraging everybody I know to get on board.
I share your optimism, Simon. And I share your fear of Trump. But I do think shouting optimistic statistics from the rooftops is not resonating with a number of voters. This does not make them MAGA lunatics. They just don't see or feel all the good stuff we point to. Their daily lives don't feel very optimistic. Frankly, the positive messaging is kind of a turnoff for them. I think it makes them feel invisible. The louder our positive message, the bigger the turnoff. I wonder how to address this. Better messaging from Biden? From us?
Where in the world are you getting this view from? Please back it up with data. Telling people that we live in a great country, that we are making real progress on the challenges we face, that we are leading the world IS A PROBLEM? Stop it. It's ridiculous.
I share some data here which rebuts "the lived experience" argument and the need to downplay our and Biden's success - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-economy-is-remarkably-strong
I also want to say, for those who advance this argument, is that if you are struggling in life, would you rather know that the nation and other are doing well or that everything is terrible? What conditions would make it more likely you lift yourself up and improve your station?
Shouting from the rooftops alone may not do it. Fortunately reciting the optimistic points is only part of what Hopium is about ;) - it's also about action, organizing ahead of elections. Over the last several months people have canvassed, called, post-carded etc in several elections - from Virginia's assembly election to NY-3 last week. With sufficient organizing, that's where the real difference is made - and it will make a very crucial difference in the fall. All of these activism communities didn't exist in 2016 & are even stronger now than they were in 2020. Plus I'm less convinced by the day that polling can accurately capture the "mood" of the electorate as a whole. Action is the key.
I think I have shared this anecdote before, but I was a poll greeter for the Dems in our municipal election last fall here in Mecklenburg Co., NC. One of the goals was to convince people to vote for the Democraticly endorsed school board candidates (where 13 people were running for 3 at-large seats) so we could shut out the 3 under-the-radar "Moms for Liberty" candidates. Most of the people at the early voting site (who weren't avoiding me) had either gotten the message or wanted to know who the MfL candidates were so they could avoid them. But I did persuade a pleasant older lady who was a retired teacher to vote for the Democratic candidates despite her never having voted for a single Democrats in her lifetime.
Joe can you elaborate by what you mean about "Their daily lives don't feel very optimistic"? Virtually every non-politically engaged person I know generally feels good about their life. They are going out regularly and doing more social activities. To the extent people in my life are not optimistic it is about a specific topic like AI scares them or they are anxious about some specific news story.
For politically engaged people the only pessimism I hear is Dems saying either "The stuff Trump and the Republicans are saying sounds scary" or "the conflict in Palestine is going to sink our chances." For the Republicans it is just what ever Sean Hannity is complaining about that week.
Hi Joe, you make a lot of great points. I was a poll worker in a heavily Republican and MAGA community. They really responded well with the positive message because people are ready for a positive message. Look at any major news outlet and how they shape any narrative to make things sound and look terrible. But when they look at their own life thing's are better than 4 years ago. I disagree with your conclusion that they feel invisible. People are tired of all the negativity. Time to focus on the good things while working in reality on the tough problems.
For instance check out Parker Molloys recent substack post about New York Times distorting a neutral article about Bidens recent loan forgiveness into something much more negative.
Joe - I know this take. It’s something the Pod Save America Guys say. It’s really a crap take and not baed on data. People don’t feel the good news because they don’t know about it (because of how the media is). Biden, all of us are not suggesting saying to voters - you don’t know how you feel! The truth is that they are - the low engagement voters- not thinking about any of this at all and the issue is just getting to them with information that will motivate them to vote. No one here is saying we should be talking at people.
Other than people mistakenly thinking "the rate of Inflation being down" automatically leads to "prices being down", I am not seeing what you are talking about - except of course for the people who live in the Fox News bubble 24/7 and NOTHING will convince them to vote for Biden..
Great segment last night on Lawrence O'Donnell, as always.
Between what's happening in Alabama with IVF and in Florida with a wholly preventable measles outbreak thanks to a surgeon general who doesn't believe in science, the GOP's extremism is showing us its dangerous real-life consequences more each day. We rejected it in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, and we'll keep doing it in 2024.
Just read Greg Sargent's terrific piece in The New Republic about No Labels entering meltdown mode. Sure hope he's right. Always thought their stated reason for being - to find common ground between the parties - was pure bunk. Joe Biden has passed more bipartisan legislation than any president in recent memory - something the mainstream media consistently ignores.
Part of the reason I discussed us making improvements in life span and health a major part of Biden's second term in my New Republic essay is that we have enormous advantages on health care right now and need to keep pressing our advantage.
And the red states by far have worse life spans than blue states.
Thanks for all of this -- and I don't see concern about Biden's apparent lack of concern about the IDF's deliberate slaughter of Palestinian civilians (OK, the IDF apparently thinks that there aren't any) and deliberate destruction of homes, infrastructure, colleges & a university, and hospitals in Gaza, plus Israel's cutoff of water, electricity, and food to Gaza. I don't mean Biden's words. I mean his continuing to send military materiel.
Morally, this is an outrage. As to domestic politics, this is suicidal. As to international law, this is immensely destructive. As to U.S. standing in the world, ditto.
As to REAL support for Israel, it isn't. Moody's has downgraded it. Norway's state pension fund has got completely out of Israeli bonds. Israel's GDP is down nearly a breathtaking 20%, on an annualized basis, since 7 October. As to REAL support for Jews worldwide, Netanahu, with Biden's support, has made every Jew less safe. I am not Jewish. But many dear friends are, and Netanyahu and Biden have no right to endanger them.
FYI I have been a Democrat for slightly longer than Speaker emerita Pelosi. I do not defend what Hamas did on 7 October. But I was a prosecutor. Palestinians are not a foreign nation. So 7 October was not an act of war. I think that you prosecute the perpetrators, and only the prosecutors. Quaint, I know.
Sarah, a few points: 1) I can't touch on every issue, every day, and this is a topic we have discussed a great deal here over the last few months 2) the statement that Biden isn't concerned about loss of life is an outrageous one and has no place here on this site. It's insulting and ridiculous. 3) I assume you are outraged that Trump and the Speaker are blocking the $9b in aid to Gaza that Biden has proposed and which passed the Senate last week
There is intense disagreement in our family about this issue, and I, and the overwhelming majority of Democrats, are backing the President in his management of this very difficult challenge. What disappoints me is how often the critics of the President overstate, exaggerate, lie and impugn. There is no need for that.
Great points and I hope our passionate friends see the bigger picture. Can anyone imagine what Trump's leadership would have looked like on October 7th?
We need to have serious and honest conversations (which have been happening as you shared, Simon). This is a huge challenge and I will trust Biden and the Democrats to properly respond because they will listen and stay grounded in facts. Especially over the MAGA parties authoritarian, hateful, and self serving approach.
The only thing that really concerns me about this is, though I also Trust Biden and the Democrats to properly respond, a large part of our coalition would not organically use the word Trust in their relationship with the party. We desperately need the "Bernie Wing" and young voters who are disengaged but share our values to vote.
I have started to think that the 3 sides of our media, Rightwing News, Mainstream Bothsideism, and Social Media outrage content, is shifting some segment of voters to a complicit/non-complicit dichotomy opposed to a which is a better choice.
Which means the Biden team has to become very effective at defining not voting and third party voting with being complicit with Trump, while finding a way to break the Biden=Netanyahu complicity perception that has been developing on ticktock and other social media. If something like a durable ceasefire does not emerge soon Biden may have to do something dramatic like go to the Knesset the way Netanyahu did with congress to Obama.
Very insightful! Totally agree that we need to do a lot of work to keep everyone engaged.
We need to counter the narrative that Biden can - with a call - end the invasion. It’s not true and is a false and un achievable narrative. I am 110% for stopping the bombing of Gaza but am sick and tired of the blaming of Biden and eliding over the clear manipulation of this issue by Russia/Iran and others (and overinflating the consequences of all of this).
I agree that you are correct that one phone call will not end the bombing, but it also appears that private pressure will not either.
At some point if Biden wants to break the Biden=Netanyahu perception that part of our collation incorrectly believes he will have to make a meaningful public separation. Not on background, not minor critiques, but acknowledged that Netanyahu does not want a two state solution and actively trying to jam Biden Politically. Israel and the United States might be Allies but Netanyahu is allies with MAGA. He has spent the last 20 years blocking piece talks and publicly embarrassing the Democrats.
If there was ever a good faith moment for the Democratic party to say Israel is our fried but we no longer believe Netanyahu is a friend of democracy and piece we are quickly approaching that moment. If Biden cannot or is unwilling he has to make inroads with a new voting block.
The other factor in all of this is another voting block - pro Israel (and anti Bibi) democratic and independent voters. This is why Trump is still hugging Bibi (hard) and saying he wants to turn Gaza into a parking lot. These pro Israel voters are very important in PA and FL and many house districts. And, they are just as activated as the Gaza activists and Biden also needs a fair share of them to win. The political calculus is complicated.
The 3rd party candidates are melting before our eyes. No Labels is falling apart. Maybe they get their act together, but I doubt it. This country hates MAGA, and no amount of Ezra Klein or Jonathan Alter handwringing about " he's too old" is gonna stop people from voting for Biden. If they vote Dem just to vote against MAGA, that is fine with me. The Rs are getting pummeled now over the IVF decision; hence trump is trying to come out and say something or other, but who can trust the guy behind the ending of Roe? Notice I did not waste time bothering to explain trump's position, if he even has a coherent one. It's not worth it.
Hey man you are coming in hot on this.
I want to win by 10 points. I don't want to flink with young voters. I want to grow the coalition. There has been marginal decrease in young voter support it. They are consistently showing that they are the least enthused to vote.
When things are going well the youth tend to have other things to do; when things are going to hell in Vietnam or Iraq or their lives are upended by a pandemic worsened by an incompetent response, and thousands of them have lost family members as a result, they get fired up. Complacency can ruin us. Good thing for us, suburban voters hate MAGA, and that's where I think this thing is going to be won. Also, LGBTQ and abortion rights are very important to young people. Women especially. And the IVF ruling? A total disaster for the GOP.
It’s surprising how many people think President Biden can pick up the phone, call Netanyahu, and dictate Israeli policy. (Even 600,000 Israelis marching the streets couldn’t bend Netanyahu!)
And I am flummoxed as to why some Democrats continue to speak as though only Israel and the USA have any agency to make choices that impact this conflict.
The leaders of Hamas are not children – although they do continue to hide behind them. Hamas has agency, just as Israel does. Where in this discussion are the demands on Hamas??
People do not study history. A war is fought until the enemy surrenders. Hamas is not surrendering. Granted, this is an asymmetrical conflict, I'll concede that, and no one who is sane wants to see civilians harmed, though our own history has shown that our country is in no position to lecture anyone on this. No president is perfect; we stood by and even encouraged Indonesian genocide of leftists ( just the accusation was enough to get one killed; a convenient way to settle old scores ) in the 60's, Bill Clinton has said he did not do enough in Rwanda ( some 800,000 killed ) and of course W's war in Iraq....to dump on Biden for a conflict where we don't even have boots on the ground is disingenuous IMHO.
Excellent points! You sound like you do study history – which means you know what 9/11 means to the people of Chile. That was the day, in 1973, that Augusto Pinochet carried out the CIA-supported coup against the democratically elected government of Salvador Allende. And their 9/11 and its aftermath cost a helluva lot more lives than our 9/11.
Yes I know full well about Chile, my wife is from Colombia. What people do not realize here is that many South Americans did not really support Allende; he was too far left for the middle class, which my wife's large family considered itself, because they owned their own textile factory. The outrage was over his removal by coup rather than elections, and worse that the US had a big role in it. When talking to my wife's family, who are all solid Dems here but were Republicans in Colombia ( which is not the same as here ) there was real fear that there would be a "domino effect" in the rest of Latin America, threatening the middle class. But no one wanted to see him deposed by a CIA backed dictator. Because Chile had multiple parties and it was common for a president to have a plurality, Allende ascended with just 37 percent of the vote. But he was legally elected under the country's system. It's entirely possible that a more conservative leader would have been elected at a later time. But Chileans were denied that choice. Costa Gavras' brilliant 1981 film, Missing, explores this heartbreaking period. I still find it haunting all these years later.
Simon,
Might you be able to give us a short list of good places and persons to work for/ donate. I get too many emails per day and hence... I am sorry to say I have reduced faith in each of them and or overloaded with messages.
My inbox is full and in short, I am nervous to act. I need better confidence quickly that I am making smart use of my time and $$ for the few I can personally assist. Yes, I am one of your members. OK... I thank you.
Richard G. Rosen Richard@rosenconvergence.com 503-704-8577. In Sarasota these day from Portland, Oregon. Past CEO of a mid size Brand -Interaction Marketing firm caring for Fortune 100+ clients world wide. Your assistance please to make a big difference.... on steroids.
Richard,
I am not Simon, but one of his "4 things Biden should do now" is massive mobilization of young voters: Registering, peer networks to get each other to vote, Get Out The Vote measures of all kinds. To help this mobilization, key groups to support include:
https://www.thecivicscenter.org/
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
www.turnup.us/
Other:
As Simon identifies campaigns to support, he gives us readers links for taking GOTV actions. Tom Suozzi's victory was the most powerful and inspiring example yet. So watch for those.
Two other Substack sources, but you'll have to scroll through their posts to find action and donation opportunities -- which vary through time:
Robert Hubbell, Today's Edition
Jess Craven, Chop Wood, Carry Water
Take care,
Eric
Great suggestions, Eric.
Similar to The Civic Center focusing on HS students, I have also donated to Campus Vote Project (https://www.campusvoteproject.org/) which focuses on college students.
If you want some of your money to go to candidates but you just aren't sure who, I like Swing Left (www.swingleft.org). Their strategy can be found here: https://swingleft.org/p/strategy. A good interview with their executive director can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFYeEQAMrbA
I was recently on a call that had a presentation by Galvanize Action (https://www.galvanizeaction.org/?). There target audience is moderate white women and they create messaging that will persuade women on a variety of topics. They are extremely data driven which I like. After the call they sent out a link to their playbook so that you could check out the breadth of their messaging: https://playbook.galvanizeaction.org/
Super summary, Cheryl! (And I think I have seen every one of these opportunities at one point in Jess Craven's excellent work.)
I heard about Galvanize on her substack.
FYI, I just got an email from Swing Left about a National Strategy call next week on 2/29 at 5pm PST/8 pm EST.
https://www.mobilize.us/swingleft/event/604338/?
I just emailed you also, Richard.
What's your reaction to this guy calling you out on Slate? His arguments seemed confusing, at best. https://apple.news/AkTqMOTo5TgagY1eknM2n1Q
I haven't read it. But I am getting better at what Simon coaches us to do: NOT get blown around by every provocative essay or post or video etc.
"React less, be loud and proud more!" is a nice companion guideline to "Worry less, do more"
I have been living this way in my local communities politics and it is really effective. Nothing pisses attention seekers off more than ignoring them. Way too much noise out there. Let's work with the people that want to make positive change!
Slate? Seriously? Their articles are so bad I am afraid to bring up the site when anyone is home, lest they see some article about some prurient topic better suited to soft porn. And they have the nerve to ask for a paid subscription to boot. No thanks.
I read it and yes, he is confused! So….” Democrats have to first stop telling each other comforting lies about what’s actually happening out there.” I guess the massive grassroots effort is Dems in denial ?? Of course, not one mention of the effort.
“Worry less, do more.”
👕🛒🧢
"Confused" nails it. His Roosevelt U profile is so full of spelling/punctuation errors, I would be careful about taking any analysis of his at face value. As Einstein said, "Whoever is careless in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters."
I think some of these people think that if you aren't protesting on the streets of every single city that signals that Democrats are not engaged. I'm thinking of the recent NYT article were the author quotes maybe a half dozen people - none of whom are activists - about how Democrats are burned out. The author failed to recognize that finding Trump's theatrics exhausting is NOT the same as being exhausted and disengaged.
Guy argues that Dem “overperformance is baked into the polls now” but then Suozzi wins by by 5 more than the polling average. Trump wins NH by 10 points less than the final polling average. So strange how strongly “the sky is falling” contingent of the commentariat is fighting back. The fact that they are now trying to take down Simon’s arguments is a good sign of Hopium’s success (means it is working).
1) I am aware folks don't agree with me, and thanks fine. 2) Not OK for a journalist or commentator to write about my arguments without calling me up and giving me a chance to rebut them directly, as Ezra Klein did, to his credit. It's chickenshit stuff. 3) as Eric says, I am not going to take the time to rebut. I just do my work, share what I see and think, and work really hard to give you the best info and advice I can.
Thanks Simon. You’re about the only person I follow anymore. I have setup recurring donations and have chosen to have hope.
💙 Hopium! Working on postcards today with NEAZ Native Dems.✍️
And Republicans just keep giving us more “gifts”. Christopher Rufo is one of DeSantis’ top education advisors.⬇️
“So what? The pill causes health problems for many women. "Recreational sex" is a large part of the reason we have so many single-mother households, which drives poverty, crime, and dysfunction. The point of sex is to create children—this is natural, normal, and good.”
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1760704767771431360
👕🛒🧢
thank you
I really enjoy writing postcards with NEAZ Native Dems. They have an effective model for dealing with challenges of no internet and spotty cell service along with extremely low population density and dirt roads. And they are leveraging their tribal customs and identity to tailor effective messages to the audience.
It's becoming more obvious what's been happening from the beginning: Putin's puppet.
Last night, my wife was at dinner with some friends, when the inevitable "But his age..." conversation came up. She used the "Rosenberg Mantra" to counter their arguments, as well as using some of the facts 'n' stats you often detail here. Once she made her case, they thanked her for providing them an alternative and positive perspective, and agreed that Biden was really the only reasonable choice for November.
Thanks again, Simon, for your analysis and presentation, necessary antidotes to the pessimism and bad reporting we continue to see around us.
I saw a great cartoon that captured this. It showed a ballot with two clear choices:
– OLD
– EVIL
.
Thanks - my first guffaw of the day.
That is a great meme,
If we all do this every day it can make an enormous difference. Thanks for sharing this story.
Had the same thing happen on my morning walk; an older retired AA friend I hadn't seen for awhile, who tends to be a little on the conservative side because he gets upset at young men wearing their pants around their ankles ( something that has been going on since I taught in the inner city over 35 years ago, so , come on....my own kid went through a phase like that ) anyway, he was spouting all the usual lines ( he listens to Larry Elder, nuff said ) and "some people say " about the border and crime ( these are the topics they are pushing, even though they have lost on this issue already IMO ) and 'what has Biden done."..I pulled out my phone and showed him some stuff from here. He was like, well that's a lot to read right now. Told him we could sit at Dunkin Donuts and I would buy him a coffee and we could go through it all slowly....he said not today, but he was open to looking it all up himself. Gave him the link to this site.
One mind at a time....
yes, one mind at a time my friends. It's how we win!
I find that even people who don’t buy the Biden is too old line appreciate being introduced to Simon, as it gives them a script they can use to spread the word. Everyone has been very receptive.
I thought you’d made every possible point in favor of Biden as opposed to Trump (and I agree with them), but it now occurs to me that you missed one:
The utterly self-contradictory nature of MAGA’s view of Biden:
A) he’s a master criminal running an operation that even imprisoned the whistleblower attacking him
And
B) he’s a doddering and senile old fool
Both these things cannot be true. Never heard of a senile “master criminal” maintaining his position on top of the heap.
Moreover, if our "doddering and senile old fool" keeps outmaneuvering the Republican leadership into bipartisan agreements that supposedly always are to the advantage of Democrats, what does that say about *their* Republican leadership?
"The utterly self-contradictory nature of MAGA’s view of Biden":
It is not just Biden. Look at their positions on Jan 6th.
Basically it boils down to the fact that if the MAGAts were capable of logical thought, they wouldn't be part of MAGA.
I was just about to say the same thing! It’s also apparent in every Jordan Klepper bit he does when he interviews people at MAGA rallies. The best explanation for this comes from one of my favorite comedians. Trump is a feeling: https://youtu.be/tG6T3-aLcb4?si=CztGiXzRuchexYn0
First, thanks for all you are doing. New subscriber, and its terrific, and something I have widely circulated. My question: you have done a super job or warning us away from early polls and polls of poor quality. Most of the discussion has been about national polls. If one looks at the key swing state polls, the President trails in almost all, save PA. In some it’s close in others….phew! Much of this belies recent blue success in these states, but would love to hear more about what if any state polls are worth anything and any other thoughts about the swing states.
Simon has posted polls right here that show Biden winning in those very states; it is close, they are swing states. National polls don't mean that much to me; being ahead by 1 or 2 is not enough for a Dem to necessarily win the EC, the only game that counts. Kerry could have won the WH in 04 if he had taken OH, and would have lost the PV.
I have no data to back this up…. But I have a gut feeling that an assault on “recreational sex” could be problematic with….MEN? 🤷♂️😂
Not at all making light of the threat, especially for women’s reproductive rights, but when I saw that I started to choke on my drink. I have met some ultra faux-macho rural men in my life and work, and telling them sex can only be with a legally binding monogamous partner for the purpose of procreation will certainly cause some….#CognitiveDissonance 🤦♂️
On another note, given how Melania is keeping her distance, there are strong indications that Little Donnie ain’t gettin’ any. The Republican Party appears to be led by a serial adulterer who is now a very, very frustrated Incel.
.
This made my day
Thanks for the laugh, PianoManSteve ! I’m just waiting for Republicans to make Charlotte, the pregnant stingray in a N.C. aquarium,asexually pregnant with four pups and no male companion, their poster child/pregnancy.🤣
https://apnews.com/article/stingray-pregnant-charlotte-north-carolina-1da7d7ab06bf22169ef2c8e589db9cb4