Thank you for this newsletter! As I posted on Robert Hubbell’s Substack, yours is the page I send politically astute nervous Nellies to because you bring the data. Many donate and volunteer their time because it's the right thing to do; others require cold, hard facts to join the fight. I refer your Substack to those folks. Keep up the excellent work!
Thank you for that article. That’s a very encouraging development!
Please correct me if I am wrong, but as I understand it, voter registration and voter turnout are two separate issues – although obviously interrelated.
I have never understood why American voter turnout is so dismally low compared to European countries. (Even in 2020, turnout was only 66.8%.)
Civic education is abyssmal in the US. Many young people are unaware you have to register before you can vote - up to 30 days prior to the election depending on the state. And young people tend to procrastinate!
If you recognize that registration is the issue, you can tackle that now. Many states allow pre-registration as young as age 16. But if you wait until you typically try and get out the vote - a few weeks before the election - it is often too late for peope you are trying to persuade to register!
We are one of the only countries in the world where you have to register to vote. It's an extra step that depresses participation. In addition, the hyper localized nature of voting here in the US makes it clumsy and challenging when you move. Only voters in 7 states get to really see a Presidential campaign. Very few people in the US to get to regularly cast what I call a meaningful vote - meaning you know it will matter. Many countries also require you to vote by law, and if you don't, you get fined. Finally, for many years it didn't really matter if you voted. The country worked. Our democracy held. The economy grew. Things have changed and we've seen very high levels of participation in recent years.
Simon, thank you for your very interesting thoughts and feedback! While it’s great to see voter turnout increasing, I guess we disagree about what constitutes a "very high level of participation". (In my view that would be 75–85 or 90%.)
Second, surely the presidential election is just one of the things that matters (although this one truly is existential!).
There are all sorts of meaningful elections at the local and state levels: legislators, judges, sheriffs, school boards, referenda, etc etc. Not voting cedes these to the other party and is a recipe for allowing society to be steered in a direction we do not want. Bolts Magazine, founded by Daniel Nichanian does a wonderful job of highlighting the things at stake that get far too little attention elsewhere.
Saw a poll recently in which 90% of Republicans said they would "definitely" vote in '24. We know what actual turnouts look like (~60%?). So should pollsters call them "likely voters" and "adjust" accordingly?
Every report on polling should include these words: "X% of people *say that* they..." What they say ain't necc what they'll do. Especially when you're polling a group that is demonstrably and deeply self-delusional. Thanks.
Simon, you are on fire this morning! Thank you for your tireless efforts and positivity! Students for Biden-Harris is a fantastic undertaking and if we can create a coalition that respects and includes college students, we have already won - for generations! I'm a college professor and college students I'm currently teaching are some of the most passionate social justice students I've had since 1989 when I started. They just need to be included! We had a great week last week!
Mitt Romney is retiring. Unlikely Utah would elect a Democrat, but is there any momentum building for a Democratic senate candidate for the Beehive State?
If the Dems ever have a shot in Utah, it has to be fast approaching. Their Republican governor has been bungling the slow moving ecological disaster. If the lake dries up the state will too. Last I heard Caroline Gleich is the leading Dem candidate, I believe she is making the health of the The Great Salt Lake a her top issue.
Utah may not be ripe for a Democrat, but I would have loved to see Evan McMullin seated as a senator. In 2022, when Democrats made a strategic choice to support McMullin senatorial campaign, he lost to Mike Lee by only 10.4%. (That’s very close to be Utah.)
While I vehemently disagree with him on economic issues, Evan McMullin would do his utmost to preserve American democracy – and we need all the allies we can get.
so smart that the campaign has launched Students for Biden-Harris and that 14 (!) national student democratic orgs have endorsed the President. I think we need to get the word out that this is happening. Belies that CW in the media that "young people/students are all opposed to Biden." Just having evidence of the alternate POV really will change the dynamic in a good way. Go team!
Here in Beaver County PA, just west of Pittsburgh, our Democratic Committee just held its annual banquet. The positive energy going into this election cycle that Simon points out was on full display. Our keynote speaker was the new Speaker of the Pennsylvania House, Joanna McClinton. She is the first woman, first Black and first DEMOCRAT to hold the post in 12 years of previous republican misrule because we flipped control of the House during the failed red wave of ‘22. We re well on our way to crushing MAGA this year!
Anyone seeing the doom takes from Nate Silver and others, just think. Would you rather be up in the polls (by maybe a point or two max) eight months out from the election, but your candidate is spending all of his own and your party's money on his personal legal troubles? Or would you rather be way ahead in donations plus have a devoted base that reliably turns out in every special election everywhere?
Edit - to put it another way. Biden raised as much money in one day (the SOTU day) as the RNC had total cash on hand.
The Times may be returning to it's responsible role of covering the actual policies and initiatives of POTUS and not fantastical early polling. Below is perhaps the most consequential initiative of Biden's first term as described in David Sanger's outstanding article in today's Times. It describes President's imminently sane response to Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The article is below:
In the American military chain of command, POTUS has SOLE authority to initiate a nuclear response (without collaboration). For the future of human civilization, there is no more important reason to reelect Joe Biden. We need to appreciate the Times when they act like a responsible news organization. You can write to: sanger@nytimes.cojoe.kahn@nytimes.comdavid.halbfinger@nytimes.com ...................................................................................................
Mr Sanger Thank you so much for your excellent article describing how President Biden averted a nuclear confrontation with Putin in 2022. What possible issue could be more important for voters to consider than which candidate can be trusted with the singular responsibility of America's nuclear response?? For months, the Times has ignored President Biden's many initiatives beneficial to all Americans. I hope your article is the first of many the Times will publish from the exceptional political and foreign policy journalists. Thanks Merrill Weingrod 401-480-8003
The problem with the NYT is the words they choose to use often escape the editing process. Words like "crushes", "commands", the subject of Biden's "age" that never mentions the benefit of wisdom; using those words without facts to highlight the "absolute" nature of the word annoys me to no end. Words and how you use them definitely matter. And the Times misleads with words like that.
I don't read the headlines of NYT anymore due to this issue. The preservation of Democracy seems to be unimportant to the owners, although I often wonder how they would take to publishing in a fascist state.
And I think the best advice I have heard/read so far is that the preservation of Democracy is going to have to be from US - we the people. No depending on the courts or the mainstream media.....it's going to be all from us. When the NYT suddenly realizes the dead seriousness of the forces at work - it will likely be too little too late.
VP Harris is doing an amazing job working with our young voters. I was hesitant when she was picked as the VP and uneasy about what would happen if she needed to become our President. Absolutely have no concerns about her ability to lead should something happen to Pres. Biden. I've been following her on Twitter for over a year and see her growing exponentially in issues foreign and domestic. The team is strong and able to lead our country for another 4 years.
Simon, a side note from your home state. The CTGOP recently said they firmly back Trump. They have learned nothing since 2016 when they brought Trump into our state. As an independent voter since 1974, I have at times voted for Republicans in CT but will never give my vote to any of them in my home state. When Trump goes down he will take the CTGOP with him.
Sound impossible today? Maybe not. The Democrats in that race convinced the country (basically, scared the s**t out of the country) that Goldwater, a conservative Senator from Arizona, was a threat to humanity because he didn't reject using nuclear weapons to defeat communist threats in Asia. If today's Democratic party can convince America that an unstable megalomaniac like Trump is not just a threat to Democracy but also a threat to humanity, we'll increase our margin of victory.
I so appreciate your enthusiasm Simon! The Bhagavad Gita has a passage which talks about just doing what's in front of us and not focusing on the outcomes. So that's what Im trying to do to counteract the dread I feel at the prospect of another Trump presidency. I was comforted to learn that the Biden campaign is well aware that Trump will contest the election so they are already planning and gearing up for that. For me Im working with the League of Women Voters on the local level getting youth registered - I have a giving circle Take Back our States with The States Project to flip AZ blue in November : https://www.grapevine.org/giving-circle/5wmhrOa/Take-Back-Our-States
Please donate if you can - and Im working with Indivisible East Bay to flip CA House District 13 blue as well. So - one step at a time - this is my footwork to focus my efforts to save our democracy.
Patsy, just here to thank you for creating a giving circle through the States Project. Minnesota, where I live, is one of the target states again in 2024!
Seeing what our blue trifecta government was able to accomplish in 2023 was incredible! Watching my former boss stand next to Gov. Walz, as Walz signed the bill requiring that 100% of energy must come from renewable sources by 2040 in Feb. 2023, was heartening, as were the incredible number of good policies that followed including codifying reproductive rights. I deeply appreciate your investment in the future of these swing states! (I live in MN 2, represented by Angie Craig, the chief author of the bill to reduce prescription costs like insulin. In 2022, this was the most expensive congressional race in the country. The RNC has again targeted our district to try and get Angie out of office. Can’t wait to overturn Citizen’s United…..)
Thank you for this newsletter! As I posted on Robert Hubbell’s Substack, yours is the page I send politically astute nervous Nellies to because you bring the data. Many donate and volunteer their time because it's the right thing to do; others require cold, hard facts to join the fight. I refer your Substack to those folks. Keep up the excellent work!
This is great news! The youth vote really matters. Imagine if Democrats can inspire a 70-percent turnout of voters who are under 25 years old?
In November, we need European-level turnout for all age groups!
I’d settle for 50%, but 70% would be amazing. Voters between 18-29 voted at about 40% in 2020, which was an 11% increase over 2016.
Per The Civics Center, it is a voter registration issue
https://open.substack.com/pub/thecivicscenter/p/us-department-of-education-promotes?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thank you for that article. That’s a very encouraging development!
Please correct me if I am wrong, but as I understand it, voter registration and voter turnout are two separate issues – although obviously interrelated.
I have never understood why American voter turnout is so dismally low compared to European countries. (Even in 2020, turnout was only 66.8%.)
Civic education is abyssmal in the US. Many young people are unaware you have to register before you can vote - up to 30 days prior to the election depending on the state. And young people tend to procrastinate!
If you recognize that registration is the issue, you can tackle that now. Many states allow pre-registration as young as age 16. But if you wait until you typically try and get out the vote - a few weeks before the election - it is often too late for peope you are trying to persuade to register!
We are one of the only countries in the world where you have to register to vote. It's an extra step that depresses participation. In addition, the hyper localized nature of voting here in the US makes it clumsy and challenging when you move. Only voters in 7 states get to really see a Presidential campaign. Very few people in the US to get to regularly cast what I call a meaningful vote - meaning you know it will matter. Many countries also require you to vote by law, and if you don't, you get fined. Finally, for many years it didn't really matter if you voted. The country worked. Our democracy held. The economy grew. Things have changed and we've seen very high levels of participation in recent years.
Simon, thank you for your very interesting thoughts and feedback! While it’s great to see voter turnout increasing, I guess we disagree about what constitutes a "very high level of participation". (In my view that would be 75–85 or 90%.)
Second, surely the presidential election is just one of the things that matters (although this one truly is existential!).
There are all sorts of meaningful elections at the local and state levels: legislators, judges, sheriffs, school boards, referenda, etc etc. Not voting cedes these to the other party and is a recipe for allowing society to be steered in a direction we do not want. Bolts Magazine, founded by Daniel Nichanian does a wonderful job of highlighting the things at stake that get far too little attention elsewhere.
There has been a stunning increase in voter turnout, in both parties. How do we keep that going for our candidates?
15 youth groups endorse President Biden!!!
Just to support your points:
Saw a poll recently in which 90% of Republicans said they would "definitely" vote in '24. We know what actual turnouts look like (~60%?). So should pollsters call them "likely voters" and "adjust" accordingly?
Every report on polling should include these words: "X% of people *say that* they..." What they say ain't necc what they'll do. Especially when you're polling a group that is demonstrably and deeply self-delusional. Thanks.
Simon, you are on fire this morning! Thank you for your tireless efforts and positivity! Students for Biden-Harris is a fantastic undertaking and if we can create a coalition that respects and includes college students, we have already won - for generations! I'm a college professor and college students I'm currently teaching are some of the most passionate social justice students I've had since 1989 when I started. They just need to be included! We had a great week last week!
Mitt Romney is retiring. Unlikely Utah would elect a Democrat, but is there any momentum building for a Democratic senate candidate for the Beehive State?
If the Dems ever have a shot in Utah, it has to be fast approaching. Their Republican governor has been bungling the slow moving ecological disaster. If the lake dries up the state will too. Last I heard Caroline Gleich is the leading Dem candidate, I believe she is making the health of the The Great Salt Lake a her top issue.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/09/22/if-the-great-salt-lake-dries-up-what-would-that-mean-for-the-u-s-economy/
Utah may not be ripe for a Democrat, but I would have loved to see Evan McMullin seated as a senator. In 2022, when Democrats made a strategic choice to support McMullin senatorial campaign, he lost to Mike Lee by only 10.4%. (That’s very close to be Utah.)
While I vehemently disagree with him on economic issues, Evan McMullin would do his utmost to preserve American democracy – and we need all the allies we can get.
so smart that the campaign has launched Students for Biden-Harris and that 14 (!) national student democratic orgs have endorsed the President. I think we need to get the word out that this is happening. Belies that CW in the media that "young people/students are all opposed to Biden." Just having evidence of the alternate POV really will change the dynamic in a good way. Go team!
Monthly contribution (small) to Biden-Harris through Hopium: Check
Monthly contribution to NCDC through Hopium: Check
Monthly contribution to Ruben Gallegos through Hopium: Check
More, please, sir.
Here in Beaver County PA, just west of Pittsburgh, our Democratic Committee just held its annual banquet. The positive energy going into this election cycle that Simon points out was on full display. Our keynote speaker was the new Speaker of the Pennsylvania House, Joanna McClinton. She is the first woman, first Black and first DEMOCRAT to hold the post in 12 years of previous republican misrule because we flipped control of the House during the failed red wave of ‘22. We re well on our way to crushing MAGA this year!
She does great interviews - PA is very lucky to have her.
Anyone seeing the doom takes from Nate Silver and others, just think. Would you rather be up in the polls (by maybe a point or two max) eight months out from the election, but your candidate is spending all of his own and your party's money on his personal legal troubles? Or would you rather be way ahead in donations plus have a devoted base that reliably turns out in every special election everywhere?
Edit - to put it another way. Biden raised as much money in one day (the SOTU day) as the RNC had total cash on hand.
Very well said Calvin !
The Times may be returning to it's responsible role of covering the actual policies and initiatives of POTUS and not fantastical early polling. Below is perhaps the most consequential initiative of Biden's first term as described in David Sanger's outstanding article in today's Times. It describes President's imminently sane response to Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The article is below:
..........................................................................
Biden’s Armageddon Moment: When Nuclear Detonation Seemed Possible in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/us/politics/biden-nuclear-russia-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
In the American military chain of command, POTUS has SOLE authority to initiate a nuclear response (without collaboration). For the future of human civilization, there is no more important reason to reelect Joe Biden. We need to appreciate the Times when they act like a responsible news organization. You can write to: sanger@nytimes.co joe.kahn@nytimes.com david.halbfinger@nytimes.com ...................................................................................................
Mr Sanger Thank you so much for your excellent article describing how President Biden averted a nuclear confrontation with Putin in 2022. What possible issue could be more important for voters to consider than which candidate can be trusted with the singular responsibility of America's nuclear response?? For months, the Times has ignored President Biden's many initiatives beneficial to all Americans. I hope your article is the first of many the Times will publish from the exceptional political and foreign policy journalists. Thanks Merrill Weingrod 401-480-8003
The problem with the NYT is the words they choose to use often escape the editing process. Words like "crushes", "commands", the subject of Biden's "age" that never mentions the benefit of wisdom; using those words without facts to highlight the "absolute" nature of the word annoys me to no end. Words and how you use them definitely matter. And the Times misleads with words like that.
I don't read the headlines of NYT anymore due to this issue. The preservation of Democracy seems to be unimportant to the owners, although I often wonder how they would take to publishing in a fascist state.
And I think the best advice I have heard/read so far is that the preservation of Democracy is going to have to be from US - we the people. No depending on the courts or the mainstream media.....it's going to be all from us. When the NYT suddenly realizes the dead seriousness of the forces at work - it will likely be too little too late.
VP Harris is doing an amazing job working with our young voters. I was hesitant when she was picked as the VP and uneasy about what would happen if she needed to become our President. Absolutely have no concerns about her ability to lead should something happen to Pres. Biden. I've been following her on Twitter for over a year and see her growing exponentially in issues foreign and domestic. The team is strong and able to lead our country for another 4 years.
Simon, a side note from your home state. The CTGOP recently said they firmly back Trump. They have learned nothing since 2016 when they brought Trump into our state. As an independent voter since 1974, I have at times voted for Republicans in CT but will never give my vote to any of them in my home state. When Trump goes down he will take the CTGOP with him.
In 1964 LBJ defeated Goldwater 61% to 38%.
Sound impossible today? Maybe not. The Democrats in that race convinced the country (basically, scared the s**t out of the country) that Goldwater, a conservative Senator from Arizona, was a threat to humanity because he didn't reject using nuclear weapons to defeat communist threats in Asia. If today's Democratic party can convince America that an unstable megalomaniac like Trump is not just a threat to Democracy but also a threat to humanity, we'll increase our margin of victory.
Bring on the Daisy ad v2.0!
"But surely we can use nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes?"
I so appreciate your enthusiasm Simon! The Bhagavad Gita has a passage which talks about just doing what's in front of us and not focusing on the outcomes. So that's what Im trying to do to counteract the dread I feel at the prospect of another Trump presidency. I was comforted to learn that the Biden campaign is well aware that Trump will contest the election so they are already planning and gearing up for that. For me Im working with the League of Women Voters on the local level getting youth registered - I have a giving circle Take Back our States with The States Project to flip AZ blue in November : https://www.grapevine.org/giving-circle/5wmhrOa/Take-Back-Our-States
Please donate if you can - and Im working with Indivisible East Bay to flip CA House District 13 blue as well. So - one step at a time - this is my footwork to focus my efforts to save our democracy.
Patsy, just here to thank you for creating a giving circle through the States Project. Minnesota, where I live, is one of the target states again in 2024!
Seeing what our blue trifecta government was able to accomplish in 2023 was incredible! Watching my former boss stand next to Gov. Walz, as Walz signed the bill requiring that 100% of energy must come from renewable sources by 2040 in Feb. 2023, was heartening, as were the incredible number of good policies that followed including codifying reproductive rights. I deeply appreciate your investment in the future of these swing states! (I live in MN 2, represented by Angie Craig, the chief author of the bill to reduce prescription costs like insulin. In 2022, this was the most expensive congressional race in the country. The RNC has again targeted our district to try and get Angie out of office. Can’t wait to overturn Citizen’s United…..)
"15 Bible Verses That Identify Donald J. Trump as the Antichrist"
https://youtu.be/1014PFSIq-U?si=sJmFpQf_OTTxnHWy
I believe it. I've thought that for a long long time.