A deeper dive shows that so far 2024 is on pace to have fewer layoffs than 2023. If this trend holds Biden will presided over the 4 lowest years on record for layoffs and discharges. So far it looks like Jobs are more secure under Joe Biden than any other president since record keeping began.
Thanks for the analysis of the situation on college campuses. Both my children are at university this year - son at Chicago as it so happens. They are both upset by the disruption, are concerned about their Jewish classmates, and just sort of dismayed by the way this issue has overtaken all of the other issues that face us right now. I share this to say that lots of young people are quietly thinking about the bigger picture, and not getting drawn into the drama of these protests.
Strangely absent from the media coverage of UCLA, is the fact that five so-called Pro-Palestinian protesters attacked a Jewish medical student and beat her until she was unconscious – putting her in the Emergency Room with a concussion. She was so injured that she was unable to recognize her family when she woke up!
The protests are not a mass movement - the arrests are showing this and the increasingly hard core tactics are alienating other students and the political players needed to push support for a cease-fire. They have made themselves an issue for the right to complain about and this means that what they want - a ceasefire - will be opposed by MAGA and that MAGA will work to block, undermine efforts to bring about a ceasefire and will limit Biden’s desire/ability to move towards that resolution. It’s a real bummer how often this happens on our side- the left - protests get captured and used for sometimes strange and counterproductive agendas (e.g., Occupy Wall Street) where the actual issue become secondary to the protest itself.
You make some good points, but I think it is a fundamental mistake to see this as a leftist / right-wing issue. That one-dimensional measure of things isn’t particularly useful, for it simply cannot capture the complex nuances of the present situation.
Let me put it another way. Before the protests, the Gaza movement has successfully made this all focused on Biden. Trump, MAGA and GOP were essentially bystanders. This was smart as they were - wrongly per the numbers but successful in terms of media - able to create a narrative that Biden’s election chances were being impacted by the kids/protest movement. Now, that the protests have gone to another level, MAGA and the GOP are off the sidelines and running stories about the kids on Fox and on their socials (because they see an opportunity). For the kids, this means that no longer have free reign to target Biden because they are now a target as well (and Biden can benefit by standing up to them whereas before he had a lot of downside). And, the narrative is now “what do we do about the kids and the protests, are they too privilidged?” rather than “does Biden have to go all in on a ceasefire.” Yes, the policy issue super complex but the politics are becoming less so and less nuanced. Given that this whole movement - in my opinion! - is really not a mass movement (but a targeted policy campaign supported by a relatively small but loud group of activists), this means that the protest is going to lose most or all of their leverage in the Democratic Party and primary and relevance with the debate. TBF, as I mentioned before, this happens to most “mass movements” on the left (they get taken over by others with different agenda) and so you could argue that the protest movement did a remarkable job to get as far as they did but they have now, - in my view - jumped the political shark.
On a lighter note, addressing your point about privilege, here is an interview with one of the Columbia protest leaders. She demands "humanitarian aid" for the demonstrators who seized a building and barricaded themselves!
When I was in college I participated in teach-ins designed to end the bombing of Cambodia. We students went out into the community and talked with people about the war. It was a lot of work and took a lot of time away from studying. But I learned a lot about differing views doing that, even though I received a D- in my political science class that quarter. What I also remember vividly is that the only scene that was broadcast on television about the protest was that of a student "leader" who stayed on campus and raised his fist. Some things don't change much and grandstanding by the extreme right and left is one of them.
Janine thank you for sharing this. It gives me hope that there are many others such as your children are level headed and have the same concerns and are not drawn into the hysteria.
To protest for peace, protest peacefully where people in the community are safe and not threatened and put in harms way.
Thank you, Janine. I earned my Master's from U of C, and it's upsetting to know that so much disruption is going on there, reflecting, not just passionate convictions, but gross disrespect for the academic life that is so central to U of C culture. It's reassuring to know that many young people are indeed thinking about the bigger picture.
I walked by GWU today at lunch and saw their encampment. Lots of press, a few students. Someone banging a drum and chanting into a bullhorn. Probably 50 (empty?) nice tents from REI in the square? Maybe the students are commuting from the encampment to class and dorms (for a shower and a video game)? Also a hospitality tent :) with pizza. Some random kids running around with kaffiyehs in and out of the square (I had ironically gone to get a falafel sandwich at the nearby mall, delicious). I did not sense a ton of commitment. I also realized it was probably fun to get to wear the kaffiyeh and camp out in the square. Reminded me of when I protested for divestment in South Africa when I graduated from Brown. I supported the cause but also liked getting to wear an armband over my robe.
The encampments are creating an illusion about the size of the protests. 50 empty tents there all the time, doing the protest, while students go off to school, etc. I am grateful for the UC President explaining why they are antithetical to free speech.
I share your excitement Mary! My friend Ruth and I are working on 200 beautiful postcards from BlueWave for Arizona. NC still to come! So enjoy supporting these campaigns!!
Thank you! I think I will do the same. Just confirmed to write 200 with Reclaim Our Vote’s “Pledge to Vote and More” summer campaign. And will write with them for the November election. Both to my fellow NC neighbors.
There is a Supreme Court Race in Georgia with Democrat John Barrow on the ballot on May 21st. Postcardstovoters.org has addresses if any of you are also interested in that race.
I hope we can persuade some journalists to interview students who are not part of these protests. The young people I personally know all understand that blaming Biden for the Rightwing Israeli government's atrocities is absurd, that Trump openly endorses escalating those atrocities, and that chaotic protests can only undermine the cause of Palestinian rights.
Let me add: I hope we can persuade good journalists to investigate, and interview, some of the *non-students* who are playing a key part in these protests. We need to know their thoughts, their funding, and their organizational ties.
The non-students have gone out of their way to hide their true affiliations. But at last we can connect at least one group of them, SJP, directly to Hamas:
These are the sort of things Shai Davidai reveals in a recent interview with Dan Senor, in the latter’s podcast series "Call Me Back". Perhaps you already know of it?
So far that's been my understanding, but I'm not sure what to make of this statement from the recent TIME magazine article:
Yet even his support for Israel is not absolute. He’s criticized Israel’s handling of its war against Hamas, which has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza, and has called for the nation to “get it over with.” When I ask whether he would consider withholding U.S. military aid to Israel to push it toward winding down the war, he doesn’t say yes, but he doesn’t rule it out, either. He is sharply critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, once a close ally. “I had a bad experience with Bibi,” Trump says. In his telling, a January 2020 U.S. operation to assassinate a top Iranian general was supposed to be a joint attack until Netanyahu backed out at the last moment. “That was something I never forgot,” he says. He blames Netanyahu for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, when Hamas militants infiltrated southern Israel and killed nearly 1,200 people amid acts of brutality including burning entire families alive and raping women and girls. “It happened on his watch,” Trump says.
That, too. But I'm thinking the statement in the article could give some of the gullible students reason to say, "What do you mean, it would only be worse under Trump? Look what he said here."
Thanks, Thom for your fundraising efforts for NC! We need all the help we can get.
College students have a right to free speech within reasonable limits. Protesting Netanyahu’s war is not antisemitism. Harassing Jewish students is and should not be allowed.
The news media need to clearly distinguish between Pro-Palestinian protests and demonstrations that are clearly Pro-Hamas. Unfortunately, this is not being done.
Absolutely. Yesterday, I drove by the Northwestern campus in Evanston and saw the (minor) encampment on the lawn in front of the Deering Library. There were not many people on the lawn, but there was a whole lot of signage on the fence that borders it, including a large one reading "Free Palestine from the River to the Sea." That is the rallying cry of Hamas, word for word. They might as well put up a sign saying "Free Palestine by Getting Rid of the Jews," or "I Heart Hamas." That the pro-Hamas voices have gotten mixed up with, and in some cases apparently overtaken, the pro-Palestinian ones is tragic.
Im grateful for you saying this, and this is exactly what I am getting at in my posts. One can be pro-Palestinian without embracing genocidal language from terrorist organizations who among other things killed 32 Americans last October. Remember that while Bibi is not for a two state solution, nor is Hamas and Hizbollah, Joe Biden is.
Thank you, Simon. One would think that your point here would go without saying, but clearly, it does need to be said.
I also am in agreement with one of your other commenters in wishing that at least one investigative reporter (if any still exist in the United States – – we might have to rely on The Guardian for this) would investigate some of the non-student demonstrators – – including determining where they get their funding. I am not a gambler, but if I were, I would feel quite confident in laying a wager that at least some of those non-student demonstrators are supporters of Hamas. And, quite frankly, I would not be at all surprised if some of them spoke with Russian accents.
The Washington Post had a running tally of arrests on campuses and at each school, a significant number of people arrested weren’t students. Every school had at least a couple non-students, at some campuses it was a majority of those arrested.
At this point, I don’t think we can say this is purely a student-run or “student protest”- while students are absolutely a part of it, the most virulent ones seem to be at least half non-students
Thank you Simon, this is great! With regards to Social/Civil Unrest, I wanted to help address any concerns as it affects Biden's chances as well as, the keys some here like me also follow courtesy of Professor Allan Lichtman. The protests are STILL isolated just enough across the country and have not amounted to overtaking the streets relative to that of the Civil Rights riots, Vietnam, BLM riots, Jan 6, or 1968 Chicago. Keep in mind especially in the wake of the arrests recently made at Columbia University---arrests were made in the dozens, not hundreds. The NYPD was seen completely organized, non-confrontational, and fully backed by both the state’s Governor and Mayor. The particular group of students (or possibly non-students) arrested at Columbia (whom by the way, officially trespassed into Hamilton Hall and had vandalized some of the university’s property) were escorted out peacefully and with little to no aggression. It must be taken into account the significant contrast from the same scene in 1968 where instead, law enforcement willingly and proudly assaulted the students. The NYPD knew exactly what they were walking into and they were made sure by their superiors, NOT to escalate the situation potentially, evoking more plausible comparisons to that of 1968. History was not lost on them last night which was why the removal process was as orderly and as fluid as it was.
Timing can be either a gift or a curse and it’s quite possible, this occurrence has caused a breaking point. The worst of the protest outbreaks over the Middle Eastern conflict may have just reached its peak God willing. It is also foreseeable protests will remain sustained through the election however, I feel it's fair to project last night's moment could be the beginning of a tide turning with regards to how the protests are further handled and how the protesters may in fact de-escalate their responses and tactics to some degree as they watched how circumstances unfolded at Columbia. College semesters are ending with graduations underway and summer breaks on the horizon. It is difficult to believe the vast majority of college students will forfeit their entire summers to take to the streets in protest over a conflict that while deeply affecting, does not immediately resonate with the vast majority like that of Vietnam.
Let it be noted, there are 6,000 college universities in the country. 48 of them have seen isolated protesting and not even half that amount alone, have escalated towards aggression and/or violence. Arrests made combined have been in the low hundreds at maximum, not thousands or more, violence which has stemmed from the protests has actually been minimal, and quality polling/data continues to show that while mainstream media has exacerbated this issue through a skewed lens, the conflict in the Middle East in fact, is NOT top of mind for the vast majority even of younger voters---but instead, is overtaken by issues of abortion access/women’s healthcare, democracy, and the economy—all expectedly so. If even a temporary ceasefire comes to fruition over the course of the summer (which is growing more foreseeable given recent progress made in talks between Secretary Blinken and Saudi Arabia), it is all the more likely the level of protests and pushback will de-escalate to a strong extent ahead of the fall months just before the election.
The irony is not lost in that--the same year an anniversary has passed shadowing the events of Columbia University 1968 to the very same day all these years later once again with the protests but this time towards the war in Gaza---the Democratic Convention will also be held in Chicago this summer just like back then. However, THIS is NOT 1968 nor will it likely be. The convention this summer may—may—see some contention, but nothing to the scale of 1968 (I bullishly predict) as the conflict being protested I reiterate, is not nearly as personally affecting/resonating as that of Vietnam or even BLM. This will certainly remain the projection IF any semblance of a ceasefire comes to fruition before the convention.
Therefore, as abortion continues to heat up, once again being catapulted by FL likely to enrage more women (being women's healthcare is far more immediately resonant than any foreign conflict regardless how harrowing)---I relentlessly encourage fellow Hopium followers to remain calm, collected, and that they keep following the data but with full perspective. Unless completely exacerbated to an out of control scenario taken to the streets countrywide (which I still don't foresee coming to fruition), the Social Unrest key I believe will still play to Biden's favor. We have to assume he and his team by the way, are ALL OVER THIS!
Florida's recent draconian abortion decision WILL have impact in our favor as will Idaho, all on the heels of Arizona' decision. If I'm wrong when all set and done about all of this, I will put my foot in my mouth and retreat. However and until then, I will keep advising us all of the same thing...this election has effectively revolved around women, putting them front and center above ANY other issue we can resort to. This election will ultimately be determined by WOMEN, WOMEN, WOMEN, and rightly so! Watch out 'Red Fellas'---the wave of Blue Ladies are comin to town!
Believe it or not, lawn signs still work! For a $20 donation to the Biden-Harris campaign, they will ship one to you for free! I'm in an urban area with several rabid Trump supporters who keep some of us Biden supporters quiet for fear of retribution (property damage, etc.) But my husband and I put one out anyway and guess what? Neighbors come by, look at the sign, flash me a thumbs up, and smile as they walk on. Now my daughter has one in her front yard two doors down from a Trump lawn sign. No violence. No threats. Just good old American democracy. It feels good and actually a bit hopeful!
Just wanted to point to Democratic performance by Tim Kennedy in the NY26 special election yesterday. This was another PTV project. According to the Daily Kos, he overperformed Biden 2020 by approximately 7 points, and the Dem (retiring) incumbent 2022 by about 4 points.
I’ll take our over-performances, and seemingly-unending series of Democratic special-election victories, over poll leads any day!
(Quite bizarre, really, how the media’s loudest self-styled election pundits continue to emphasize often-questionable polls while discounting actual election results. Oh, well.)
Thanks for mentioning Tim Kennedy’s great victory in western NY! I’m noticing that my writing postcards across the country has helped me pay better attention and then remember to follow-up with newly familiar Dems all over the country.
I’m a little worried about this part of Simon’s list of “no” for the fall on campus: “no public support for terrorist organizations that have targeted and killed Americans (Hamas and Hizbollah).” Policing political expression on campus is a very slippery slope. I certainly don’t support any of those organizations (and would include Bibi/IDF on the list of groups I do not support) but I also don’t support a university stifling the expression of viewpoints, even ones that are offensive. This is the sentiment expressed by the UC President and should be a core value of any higher education institution. I think Simon is mostly correct in his assessments of the situation but this gave me pause.
I am very open to pushback on this point, and am excited about airing it out with all of you. We discuss it a bit in the thread above, but in a closed community like a college or university there should be an expectation that speech and advocacy would not end up calling for the mass slaughter of any people. Let's keep discussing this for the idea that my 2 college age kids will be on American college campuses next fall hearing calls for the extermination of Jews in Israel is not something I thought could ever happen in my life time.
I am sure my parents were worried about my attending college in 1969 outside of Chicago. And yes, I did march in the moratorium in Rockford! Free speech is a blessed thing.
Too bad, this unrest was triggered when a Moslem student at USC ( of all places) and was the Valedictorian of her class was refused the honor of speaking at Commencement.
Thank you for sharing the letters from the Tufts President Sunil Kumar and Paul Alivisatos, President of the University of Chicago. I found both reasonable and thoughtful and comprehensive in describing the state of the situations. Alivasatos' words were particularly grounded in the history and spirit of the U of C: careful, reasonable, teacherly, and forceful. The intransigence of the protest leaders noted by the Tufts president seems to indicate the dangerous, all or nothing, black and white rhetoric that too often taints demonstrations of this kind as performative acts of bullying and force that risk ceding any reasonable moral ground under the mistaken understanding of absolute moral superiority and that anyone who disagrees with us is an "enemy." (Disclosure: I am a University of Chicago alumnus. My first year on campus was 1967, so I have some empathy for the student protestors -- though not for the intentions of the non-students. Fuller disclosure: I was a college president at two fine institutions Wabash College in Indiana and Millikin University in Illinois for a total of 14 years. So I applaud the efforts of Presidents Kumar and Alivisatos to meet with the students and open lines of communication, while being clear on what kind of community a college must be.)
Agree, totally. I have listened and read closely on this. Fortunately, Joe was not on Morning Joe this a.m. He made himself look like an idiot.The reporters and pundits I heard this a.m. on that show stated that a good number of Jewish students were involved with the encampments as were the professors doing teach-ins and were peaceful. Exactly what their congressman saw when he was there. I hate to blame the media, but their reporting was so over-the-top, filming everyone who wanted to see themselves on the news, it makes me sick.
It is not surprising that Jewish students were a part of this since thousands upon thousands of Israelis are protesting their government daily. Chants of "From the River to the Sea" are offensive. But what is more offensive is that is what Bibi has been doing for years allowing Palestinians to be burned out of their homes and murdered by illegal Jewish settlers in the West Bank and now bombing Gaza residents. I saw a photo, ostensibly taken of Bibi at the UN, I don't know when it was taken, but he held a poster that had the outline of Israel with no demarcation of the West Bank or Gaza. All Israel.
Before it came out that Bibi had received reports about the possible attack and done nothing to avert it, I had said to my husband that he knew. Why? It doesn't take 12 hours to send soldiers down to where the action took place. Makes my heartbreak.
My great grandparents on my father's side escaped from Russian Poland in 1881 during the pogroms after the assassination of the tsar. In today's world I don't know what disturbs me more, the explosive news from Israel or Ukraine. It hurts.
Simon, I am really worried that even radio hosts and journalists that I admire keep saying that the protests are mostly peaceful. Also, saying yes October 7th was terrible, wrong and, while they don't say "BUT" it is implied. No. October 7th was violent, horrendous, wrong period. I hope you continue to speak out about how these encampments and the language they use, their methods of blocking are not, in fact, peaceful.
Part of the reason I got 2022 right…had nothing to do with anything really. I can’t say I got it right as things just happened. My basic instinct tells me ours is a nation of wisened patriots way outnumbering fascist “patriots”. Add to that particular majority the women stripped of their rights and re-subjected to the patriarchal subjugation that has existed in our culture for centuries. Progress of the last 70 years has been wiped out by a rogue court. “Hell hath no fury” is coming. I would not want to be them. Further, I see the growth in our voter pool election to election. You are making it happen, Simon, and I look forward to 2024’s election with great hope and optimism.
Haha, thank you. Don't worry Simon, I'm not gunning for your job. No one compares to you and though I like to think I have good instincts, I'm not nearly as experienced or as invested day to day. Like you though, I do like to keep very informed even when it kills me after doing so at nauseum haha. I've always been a cautious optimist at heart Irene so I try desperately to keep that sentiment with me throughout this whole thing and I'm not losing sight of that nor my instincts until I see Trump pushed out of the political ether!
We’re on the right journey here in Hopium Chronicles aren’t we? Eyes wide open to the challenge and chaos and madness but determined to do our part to save our democracy. I read so much brilliance, engagement and relentless determination to stay focused on the goal here on HC; it inspires me daily.
Jay Kuo with good advice for conversations about Gaza along with The Youth Vote Isn’t Disintegrating.(references Simon.)
“So how do we talk to our fellow Democrats for whom Gaza is a huge, seemingly insurmountable hurdle? And how worried should we be about the war in Gaza keeping voters, particularly college-age voters, home on Election Day, or even causing them to lodge protest votes with one of the spoiler candidates?”
I think I saw yesterday that Biden was contemplating allowing Gazan refugees to come to America if they had family here. Trump's bleached hair will catch on fire! Go for it, Joe!
I have to wonder if these college kids realize their protests might backfire.
IF (big IF) the vast amount of media coverage they’re getting should result in Biden losing a close election what do they think trump would do? Side with the Palestinians? My guess is he’d either escalate support for Israel or take a hands-off approach. Either way Palestinians lose.
Simon - appreciate your views on the campus occupations but the administration letters you publish make no mention of the students actual demands, or why it is seemingly impossible for the universities to consider agreeing to them. The major demand appears to be divestiture of college finances "supporting the Israeli government/war effort". This seems a reasonable request for consideration from students who chose their school because it stands for enlightenment and higher learning, and whose tuition dollars, in part, fund the institution. After all, they see our own government applying "sanctions" on our countries for similar reasons. What divestiture means, and how long for, can be a topic of implementation, but the administrations could defuse the situation by agreeing to the demand - or, in the case you cite, at least having the CFO and Board to Trustees discuss the proposal and what it might actually mean with student leadership. The students may well feel betrayed by their institutions, and that being civil is not effective in being heard. And despite the focus on "bad actors", as if that's a free-pass to using police force, many of the ground reports suggest the protests are largely a multi-ethnic mix, including many Israeli students who are also appalled by their government's behavior and also want their universities to take a stance against the continued bombings. You know far more more than me, so appreciate your commentary.
1) pls don't confuse American Jews and Israelis 2) there is no possibility universities can set a precedent that a group could break university rules for weeks like this and then be given everything they want - would encourage this to become a regular tactic that would literally destroy higher education in America 3) many schools have entered in good faith negotiations, like Tufts. Some have reached accommodations. Not one I have seen has settled on divestiture, but some of form of heightened consultation, as Tufts is offering 4) There is simply no reason for any one on the Board of Trustees to be involved in these negotiations. There is an Administration running the school who has been given authority by the board to make these decisions 5) I have written that I do not believe riot gear should be used on campuses, but what happened at Columbia last night was of a wholly different nature than a few tents on lawns 5) finally, as the UChicago President argues these encampments are not consistent with a culture of free expression, or are creating extraordinary public safety problems. These encampments are a violation of school policy at all these schools, so the Administration cannot be in a place where they are rewarding bad behavior or it will encourage much more of it in the future. Again, these protests are not peaceful; have not been peaceful, and by threatening to disrupt finals and gradation are becoming an unacceptable risk to the millions of other students who deserve to be able to enjoy a full and complete college experience.
Unless I misread, Sunil Kumar of Tufts University walks us through quite a bit of the give and take regarding the students demand and notes that the offer of further discussions and considerations are still on the table.
Simon, I think your analysis of the situation on college campuses is mostly correct. I fear, however, that many underestimate the strength of the anti-war movement among the younger generations particularly in major US cities. The conflict in Gaza is not an issue many feel comfortable speaking openly about even with close friends let alone older relatives. Support for Donald Trump slipped under the radar in 2016 when people were unwilling to speak openly about their support for him. A similar phenomenon could take place this year. While my friends and I are not in the protesting crowd, I have noticed a substantial shift over the past year or so in the attitude of people in my generation 25-35 towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict including many Jews. They have become activated on the issue. They have a stance and it looks at both Hamas and the current Israeli government with disgust and contempt. Malevolent far-right regimes that kill innocents will forever be unpopular no matter how their actions are justified or rationalized. Among my generation and the younger one I sense the beginning of a movement not dissimilar to the anti-Vietnam war, anti-Iraq war, or anti-South African apartheid movements. Whether it continues to grow or stalls out I have no idea, but just because more people are not protesting does not mean support for this Israeli government can be dismissed as a major position of Biden's that will influence liberal voters to vote for third party candidates or to stay home.
There is an enormous difference here between being critical of Bibi - which I have been on here dozens of times, as has our President - and having that position become something that people vote on in the fall. I have shared a lot of data here in recent weeks that what you suggest is not true, and that for most young people - including my 3 Gen Z kids - there are things which matter much more. I think it is wrong to label what is happening here as anti-war, that's not what this. The public for example broadly supports our funding Ukraine. This is a highly specific and highly complicated set of issues, whose "context" and complexity are often being obscured by the President's critics.
I very much appreciate your response. You are right it is not anti all wars. I have seen the data you shared and it is somewhat persuasive nationally. Though I think the data show a sizable rise in importance for a coalition fracturing issue in just 7-months to a year. In order to be more certain I would want to see how important this issue is in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. What troubles me is that this movement would not necessarily be covered in data or witnessed unless one were on good enough terms with someone to know how passionate they are about an issue. Like the silent Trump vote in 2016 or to a degree the somewhat silent pro-choice vote in 2022. There are no social hurdles to speaking about inflation or the economy that exist for these issues. I do not find people comfortable speaking openly about this issue and I've been surprised at how passionate and engaged colleagues and friends are on this issue when they actually feel comfortable discussing it. I agree that right now it won't supplant the economy, healthcare, or reproductive rights as the salient issue that people vote on. What I appreciated most about your column is the list of things that could change or shape people's understandings and how high you ranked this conflict. The longer the conflict goes on, at least in this manner, the worse Biden will look. I fear that a couple tragic events could make the issue gain enough salience to cost the President key battleground states.
Of course, refusing to vote for Biden over this would be cutting off their noses to spite their face. Now some people who would have voted third party anyway will do that, but I can't see most rational people making that choice, all things considered. It just doesn't make sense.
New Layoff Numbers are out. Biden has now overseen 23 million fewer layoffs than Trump to the equivalent points in their presidency.
A deeper dive shows that so far 2024 is on pace to have fewer layoffs than 2023. If this trend holds Biden will presided over the 4 lowest years on record for layoffs and discharges. So far it looks like Jobs are more secure under Joe Biden than any other president since record keeping began.
Thanks for the analysis of the situation on college campuses. Both my children are at university this year - son at Chicago as it so happens. They are both upset by the disruption, are concerned about their Jewish classmates, and just sort of dismayed by the way this issue has overtaken all of the other issues that face us right now. I share this to say that lots of young people are quietly thinking about the bigger picture, and not getting drawn into the drama of these protests.
Strangely absent from the media coverage of UCLA, is the fact that five so-called Pro-Palestinian protesters attacked a Jewish medical student and beat her until she was unconscious – putting her in the Emergency Room with a concussion. She was so injured that she was unable to recognize her family when she woke up!
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1785457052028117153
I don’t condone violence, but this and two other incidents provoked the attack on the camp of "Pro-Palestinian" protesters.
The protests are not a mass movement - the arrests are showing this and the increasingly hard core tactics are alienating other students and the political players needed to push support for a cease-fire. They have made themselves an issue for the right to complain about and this means that what they want - a ceasefire - will be opposed by MAGA and that MAGA will work to block, undermine efforts to bring about a ceasefire and will limit Biden’s desire/ability to move towards that resolution. It’s a real bummer how often this happens on our side- the left - protests get captured and used for sometimes strange and counterproductive agendas (e.g., Occupy Wall Street) where the actual issue become secondary to the protest itself.
You make some good points, but I think it is a fundamental mistake to see this as a leftist / right-wing issue. That one-dimensional measure of things isn’t particularly useful, for it simply cannot capture the complex nuances of the present situation.
Let me put it another way. Before the protests, the Gaza movement has successfully made this all focused on Biden. Trump, MAGA and GOP were essentially bystanders. This was smart as they were - wrongly per the numbers but successful in terms of media - able to create a narrative that Biden’s election chances were being impacted by the kids/protest movement. Now, that the protests have gone to another level, MAGA and the GOP are off the sidelines and running stories about the kids on Fox and on their socials (because they see an opportunity). For the kids, this means that no longer have free reign to target Biden because they are now a target as well (and Biden can benefit by standing up to them whereas before he had a lot of downside). And, the narrative is now “what do we do about the kids and the protests, are they too privilidged?” rather than “does Biden have to go all in on a ceasefire.” Yes, the policy issue super complex but the politics are becoming less so and less nuanced. Given that this whole movement - in my opinion! - is really not a mass movement (but a targeted policy campaign supported by a relatively small but loud group of activists), this means that the protest is going to lose most or all of their leverage in the Democratic Party and primary and relevance with the debate. TBF, as I mentioned before, this happens to most “mass movements” on the left (they get taken over by others with different agenda) and so you could argue that the protest movement did a remarkable job to get as far as they did but they have now, - in my view - jumped the political shark.
On a lighter note, addressing your point about privilege, here is an interview with one of the Columbia protest leaders. She demands "humanitarian aid" for the demonstrators who seized a building and barricaded themselves!
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1785386376755900611
As David Frum mockingly responds:
"This revolution will be catered."
Spot on 🎯
When I was in college I participated in teach-ins designed to end the bombing of Cambodia. We students went out into the community and talked with people about the war. It was a lot of work and took a lot of time away from studying. But I learned a lot about differing views doing that, even though I received a D- in my political science class that quarter. What I also remember vividly is that the only scene that was broadcast on television about the protest was that of a student "leader" who stayed on campus and raised his fist. Some things don't change much and grandstanding by the extreme right and left is one of them.
Janine thank you for sharing this. It gives me hope that there are many others such as your children are level headed and have the same concerns and are not drawn into the hysteria.
To protest for peace, protest peacefully where people in the community are safe and not threatened and put in harms way.
Thank you, Janine. I earned my Master's from U of C, and it's upsetting to know that so much disruption is going on there, reflecting, not just passionate convictions, but gross disrespect for the academic life that is so central to U of C culture. It's reassuring to know that many young people are indeed thinking about the bigger picture.
I walked by GWU today at lunch and saw their encampment. Lots of press, a few students. Someone banging a drum and chanting into a bullhorn. Probably 50 (empty?) nice tents from REI in the square? Maybe the students are commuting from the encampment to class and dorms (for a shower and a video game)? Also a hospitality tent :) with pizza. Some random kids running around with kaffiyehs in and out of the square (I had ironically gone to get a falafel sandwich at the nearby mall, delicious). I did not sense a ton of commitment. I also realized it was probably fun to get to wear the kaffiyeh and camp out in the square. Reminded me of when I protested for divestment in South Africa when I graduated from Brown. I supported the cause but also liked getting to wear an armband over my robe.
The encampments are creating an illusion about the size of the protests. 50 empty tents there all the time, doing the protest, while students go off to school, etc. I am grateful for the UC President explaining why they are antithetical to free speech.
Today I ordered 200 postcards (Postcards to Swing States) which I will write to NC.
Thank you! We need all the help we can get in NC! Which postcard campaign are you working with?
Postcards to Swing States
🙌
I share your excitement Mary! My friend Ruth and I are working on 200 beautiful postcards from BlueWave for Arizona. NC still to come! So enjoy supporting these campaigns!!
Thank you! I think I will do the same. Just confirmed to write 200 with Reclaim Our Vote’s “Pledge to Vote and More” summer campaign. And will write with them for the November election. Both to my fellow NC neighbors.
There is a Supreme Court Race in Georgia with Democrat John Barrow on the ballot on May 21st. Postcardstovoters.org has addresses if any of you are also interested in that race.
Thank you Mary! Hug from NC
You’re welcome. I’m from Washington State and want to help NC.
I hope we can persuade some journalists to interview students who are not part of these protests. The young people I personally know all understand that blaming Biden for the Rightwing Israeli government's atrocities is absurd, that Trump openly endorses escalating those atrocities, and that chaotic protests can only undermine the cause of Palestinian rights.
Let me add: I hope we can persuade good journalists to investigate, and interview, some of the *non-students* who are playing a key part in these protests. We need to know their thoughts, their funding, and their organizational ties.
The non-students have gone out of their way to hide their true affiliations. But at last we can connect at least one group of them, SJP, directly to Hamas:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13363943/Pro-Palestine-group-Columbia-University-protests-funding-linked-Hamas.html
These are the sort of things Shai Davidai reveals in a recent interview with Dan Senor, in the latter’s podcast series "Call Me Back". Perhaps you already know of it?
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000653712130
Haven't seen that yet. I did know about the lawsuit just filed:
https://www.gtlaw.com/en/news/2024/05/press-releases/greenberg-traurig-national-jewish-advocacy-center-schoen-law-firm-and-holtzman-vogel-represent-american-and-israeli-victims-of-hamas
Thanks for this link to info about the lawsuit!
So far that's been my understanding, but I'm not sure what to make of this statement from the recent TIME magazine article:
Yet even his support for Israel is not absolute. He’s criticized Israel’s handling of its war against Hamas, which has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza, and has called for the nation to “get it over with.” When I ask whether he would consider withholding U.S. military aid to Israel to push it toward winding down the war, he doesn’t say yes, but he doesn’t rule it out, either. He is sharply critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, once a close ally. “I had a bad experience with Bibi,” Trump says. In his telling, a January 2020 U.S. operation to assassinate a top Iranian general was supposed to be a joint attack until Netanyahu backed out at the last moment. “That was something I never forgot,” he says. He blames Netanyahu for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, when Hamas militants infiltrated southern Israel and killed nearly 1,200 people amid acts of brutality including burning entire families alive and raping women and girls. “It happened on his watch,” Trump says.
https://time.com/6972021/donald-trump-2024-election-interview/
It's not as if tRump would tell a lie...
The idea that Trump would tell a lie – in the singular – is absurd!
Hahahaha 😆 😂 you're absolutely right!
Right, but would he pander to gullible protesters?
He (and his right-wing reactionary thugs) would happily hire more thugs to start s*** at colleges to discredit the president and his supporters.
That, too. But I'm thinking the statement in the article could give some of the gullible students reason to say, "What do you mean, it would only be worse under Trump? Look what he said here."
tfg is waiting to see which way the political winds blow before taking a position. The quote you post is both siding the issue.
Methinks Donald frequently mistakes his own flatulence for "political winds".
If I remember correctly, Trump was unhappy with Netanyahu because Netanyahu congratulated Biden.
Naturally.
Thanks, Thom for your fundraising efforts for NC! We need all the help we can get.
College students have a right to free speech within reasonable limits. Protesting Netanyahu’s war is not antisemitism. Harassing Jewish students is and should not be allowed.
The news media need to clearly distinguish between Pro-Palestinian protests and demonstrations that are clearly Pro-Hamas. Unfortunately, this is not being done.
Totally agree.
Absolutely. Yesterday, I drove by the Northwestern campus in Evanston and saw the (minor) encampment on the lawn in front of the Deering Library. There were not many people on the lawn, but there was a whole lot of signage on the fence that borders it, including a large one reading "Free Palestine from the River to the Sea." That is the rallying cry of Hamas, word for word. They might as well put up a sign saying "Free Palestine by Getting Rid of the Jews," or "I Heart Hamas." That the pro-Hamas voices have gotten mixed up with, and in some cases apparently overtaken, the pro-Palestinian ones is tragic.
Im grateful for you saying this, and this is exactly what I am getting at in my posts. One can be pro-Palestinian without embracing genocidal language from terrorist organizations who among other things killed 32 Americans last October. Remember that while Bibi is not for a two state solution, nor is Hamas and Hizbollah, Joe Biden is.
Thank you, Simon. One would think that your point here would go without saying, but clearly, it does need to be said.
I also am in agreement with one of your other commenters in wishing that at least one investigative reporter (if any still exist in the United States – – we might have to rely on The Guardian for this) would investigate some of the non-student demonstrators – – including determining where they get their funding. I am not a gambler, but if I were, I would feel quite confident in laying a wager that at least some of those non-student demonstrators are supporters of Hamas. And, quite frankly, I would not be at all surprised if some of them spoke with Russian accents.
The Washington Post had a running tally of arrests on campuses and at each school, a significant number of people arrested weren’t students. Every school had at least a couple non-students, at some campuses it was a majority of those arrested.
At this point, I don’t think we can say this is purely a student-run or “student protest”- while students are absolutely a part of it, the most virulent ones seem to be at least half non-students
can you find and share?
Sorry, I was flying to CA.
Here it is (gift link): https://wapo.st/44p6gqW
Thank you Simon, this is great! With regards to Social/Civil Unrest, I wanted to help address any concerns as it affects Biden's chances as well as, the keys some here like me also follow courtesy of Professor Allan Lichtman. The protests are STILL isolated just enough across the country and have not amounted to overtaking the streets relative to that of the Civil Rights riots, Vietnam, BLM riots, Jan 6, or 1968 Chicago. Keep in mind especially in the wake of the arrests recently made at Columbia University---arrests were made in the dozens, not hundreds. The NYPD was seen completely organized, non-confrontational, and fully backed by both the state’s Governor and Mayor. The particular group of students (or possibly non-students) arrested at Columbia (whom by the way, officially trespassed into Hamilton Hall and had vandalized some of the university’s property) were escorted out peacefully and with little to no aggression. It must be taken into account the significant contrast from the same scene in 1968 where instead, law enforcement willingly and proudly assaulted the students. The NYPD knew exactly what they were walking into and they were made sure by their superiors, NOT to escalate the situation potentially, evoking more plausible comparisons to that of 1968. History was not lost on them last night which was why the removal process was as orderly and as fluid as it was.
Timing can be either a gift or a curse and it’s quite possible, this occurrence has caused a breaking point. The worst of the protest outbreaks over the Middle Eastern conflict may have just reached its peak God willing. It is also foreseeable protests will remain sustained through the election however, I feel it's fair to project last night's moment could be the beginning of a tide turning with regards to how the protests are further handled and how the protesters may in fact de-escalate their responses and tactics to some degree as they watched how circumstances unfolded at Columbia. College semesters are ending with graduations underway and summer breaks on the horizon. It is difficult to believe the vast majority of college students will forfeit their entire summers to take to the streets in protest over a conflict that while deeply affecting, does not immediately resonate with the vast majority like that of Vietnam.
Let it be noted, there are 6,000 college universities in the country. 48 of them have seen isolated protesting and not even half that amount alone, have escalated towards aggression and/or violence. Arrests made combined have been in the low hundreds at maximum, not thousands or more, violence which has stemmed from the protests has actually been minimal, and quality polling/data continues to show that while mainstream media has exacerbated this issue through a skewed lens, the conflict in the Middle East in fact, is NOT top of mind for the vast majority even of younger voters---but instead, is overtaken by issues of abortion access/women’s healthcare, democracy, and the economy—all expectedly so. If even a temporary ceasefire comes to fruition over the course of the summer (which is growing more foreseeable given recent progress made in talks between Secretary Blinken and Saudi Arabia), it is all the more likely the level of protests and pushback will de-escalate to a strong extent ahead of the fall months just before the election.
The irony is not lost in that--the same year an anniversary has passed shadowing the events of Columbia University 1968 to the very same day all these years later once again with the protests but this time towards the war in Gaza---the Democratic Convention will also be held in Chicago this summer just like back then. However, THIS is NOT 1968 nor will it likely be. The convention this summer may—may—see some contention, but nothing to the scale of 1968 (I bullishly predict) as the conflict being protested I reiterate, is not nearly as personally affecting/resonating as that of Vietnam or even BLM. This will certainly remain the projection IF any semblance of a ceasefire comes to fruition before the convention.
Therefore, as abortion continues to heat up, once again being catapulted by FL likely to enrage more women (being women's healthcare is far more immediately resonant than any foreign conflict regardless how harrowing)---I relentlessly encourage fellow Hopium followers to remain calm, collected, and that they keep following the data but with full perspective. Unless completely exacerbated to an out of control scenario taken to the streets countrywide (which I still don't foresee coming to fruition), the Social Unrest key I believe will still play to Biden's favor. We have to assume he and his team by the way, are ALL OVER THIS!
Florida's recent draconian abortion decision WILL have impact in our favor as will Idaho, all on the heels of Arizona' decision. If I'm wrong when all set and done about all of this, I will put my foot in my mouth and retreat. However and until then, I will keep advising us all of the same thing...this election has effectively revolved around women, putting them front and center above ANY other issue we can resort to. This election will ultimately be determined by WOMEN, WOMEN, WOMEN, and rightly so! Watch out 'Red Fellas'---the wave of Blue Ladies are comin to town!
Thank you Blake!
Your facts are very appreciated. Written like
Simon: well researched and educational. 🙏🏻
Believe it or not, lawn signs still work! For a $20 donation to the Biden-Harris campaign, they will ship one to you for free! I'm in an urban area with several rabid Trump supporters who keep some of us Biden supporters quiet for fear of retribution (property damage, etc.) But my husband and I put one out anyway and guess what? Neighbors come by, look at the sign, flash me a thumbs up, and smile as they walk on. Now my daughter has one in her front yard two doors down from a Trump lawn sign. No violence. No threats. Just good old American democracy. It feels good and actually a bit hopeful!
Thank you for sharing this I often wonder about this!
Just wanted to point to Democratic performance by Tim Kennedy in the NY26 special election yesterday. This was another PTV project. According to the Daily Kos, he overperformed Biden 2020 by approximately 7 points, and the Dem (retiring) incumbent 2022 by about 4 points.
I’ll take our over-performances, and seemingly-unending series of Democratic special-election victories, over poll leads any day!
(Quite bizarre, really, how the media’s loudest self-styled election pundits continue to emphasize often-questionable polls while discounting actual election results. Oh, well.)
Thanks for mentioning Tim Kennedy’s great victory in western NY! I’m noticing that my writing postcards across the country has helped me pay better attention and then remember to follow-up with newly familiar Dems all over the country.
What is PTV? Thanks.
Postcards to Voters. It's one of the several postcard writing postcard writing programs that I have participated in!
Yep and right now that are writing for a Georgia Supreme Court race on May 21st
I’m a little worried about this part of Simon’s list of “no” for the fall on campus: “no public support for terrorist organizations that have targeted and killed Americans (Hamas and Hizbollah).” Policing political expression on campus is a very slippery slope. I certainly don’t support any of those organizations (and would include Bibi/IDF on the list of groups I do not support) but I also don’t support a university stifling the expression of viewpoints, even ones that are offensive. This is the sentiment expressed by the UC President and should be a core value of any higher education institution. I think Simon is mostly correct in his assessments of the situation but this gave me pause.
I am very open to pushback on this point, and am excited about airing it out with all of you. We discuss it a bit in the thread above, but in a closed community like a college or university there should be an expectation that speech and advocacy would not end up calling for the mass slaughter of any people. Let's keep discussing this for the idea that my 2 college age kids will be on American college campuses next fall hearing calls for the extermination of Jews in Israel is not something I thought could ever happen in my life time.
I am sure my parents were worried about my attending college in 1969 outside of Chicago. And yes, I did march in the moratorium in Rockford! Free speech is a blessed thing.
Too bad, this unrest was triggered when a Moslem student at USC ( of all places) and was the Valedictorian of her class was refused the honor of speaking at Commencement.
Thank you for sharing the letters from the Tufts President Sunil Kumar and Paul Alivisatos, President of the University of Chicago. I found both reasonable and thoughtful and comprehensive in describing the state of the situations. Alivasatos' words were particularly grounded in the history and spirit of the U of C: careful, reasonable, teacherly, and forceful. The intransigence of the protest leaders noted by the Tufts president seems to indicate the dangerous, all or nothing, black and white rhetoric that too often taints demonstrations of this kind as performative acts of bullying and force that risk ceding any reasonable moral ground under the mistaken understanding of absolute moral superiority and that anyone who disagrees with us is an "enemy." (Disclosure: I am a University of Chicago alumnus. My first year on campus was 1967, so I have some empathy for the student protestors -- though not for the intentions of the non-students. Fuller disclosure: I was a college president at two fine institutions Wabash College in Indiana and Millikin University in Illinois for a total of 14 years. So I applaud the efforts of Presidents Kumar and Alivisatos to meet with the students and open lines of communication, while being clear on what kind of community a college must be.)
Agree, totally. I have listened and read closely on this. Fortunately, Joe was not on Morning Joe this a.m. He made himself look like an idiot.The reporters and pundits I heard this a.m. on that show stated that a good number of Jewish students were involved with the encampments as were the professors doing teach-ins and were peaceful. Exactly what their congressman saw when he was there. I hate to blame the media, but their reporting was so over-the-top, filming everyone who wanted to see themselves on the news, it makes me sick.
It is not surprising that Jewish students were a part of this since thousands upon thousands of Israelis are protesting their government daily. Chants of "From the River to the Sea" are offensive. But what is more offensive is that is what Bibi has been doing for years allowing Palestinians to be burned out of their homes and murdered by illegal Jewish settlers in the West Bank and now bombing Gaza residents. I saw a photo, ostensibly taken of Bibi at the UN, I don't know when it was taken, but he held a poster that had the outline of Israel with no demarcation of the West Bank or Gaza. All Israel.
Before it came out that Bibi had received reports about the possible attack and done nothing to avert it, I had said to my husband that he knew. Why? It doesn't take 12 hours to send soldiers down to where the action took place. Makes my heartbreak.
My great grandparents on my father's side escaped from Russian Poland in 1881 during the pogroms after the assassination of the tsar. In today's world I don't know what disturbs me more, the explosive news from Israel or Ukraine. It hurts.
Friends, these protests have not been peaceful. There have times when they have been but this is just not the reality of what's happened here.
Simon, I am really worried that even radio hosts and journalists that I admire keep saying that the protests are mostly peaceful. Also, saying yes October 7th was terrible, wrong and, while they don't say "BUT" it is implied. No. October 7th was violent, horrendous, wrong period. I hope you continue to speak out about how these encampments and the language they use, their methods of blocking are not, in fact, peaceful.
Part of the reason I got 2022 right…had nothing to do with anything really. I can’t say I got it right as things just happened. My basic instinct tells me ours is a nation of wisened patriots way outnumbering fascist “patriots”. Add to that particular majority the women stripped of their rights and re-subjected to the patriarchal subjugation that has existed in our culture for centuries. Progress of the last 70 years has been wiped out by a rogue court. “Hell hath no fury” is coming. I would not want to be them. Further, I see the growth in our voter pool election to election. You are making it happen, Simon, and I look forward to 2024’s election with great hope and optimism.
Haha, thank you. Don't worry Simon, I'm not gunning for your job. No one compares to you and though I like to think I have good instincts, I'm not nearly as experienced or as invested day to day. Like you though, I do like to keep very informed even when it kills me after doing so at nauseum haha. I've always been a cautious optimist at heart Irene so I try desperately to keep that sentiment with me throughout this whole thing and I'm not losing sight of that nor my instincts until I see Trump pushed out of the political ether!
Hi Blake,
We’re on the right journey here in Hopium Chronicles aren’t we? Eyes wide open to the challenge and chaos and madness but determined to do our part to save our democracy. I read so much brilliance, engagement and relentless determination to stay focused on the goal here on HC; it inspires me daily.
Please keep adding to the sanity.
Jay Kuo with good advice for conversations about Gaza along with The Youth Vote Isn’t Disintegrating.(references Simon.)
“So how do we talk to our fellow Democrats for whom Gaza is a huge, seemingly insurmountable hurdle? And how worried should we be about the war in Gaza keeping voters, particularly college-age voters, home on Election Day, or even causing them to lodge protest votes with one of the spoiler candidates?”
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinkbigpicture/p/biden-gaza-israel-2024-election?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I think I saw yesterday that Biden was contemplating allowing Gazan refugees to come to America if they had family here. Trump's bleached hair will catch on fire! Go for it, Joe!
I have to wonder if these college kids realize their protests might backfire.
IF (big IF) the vast amount of media coverage they’re getting should result in Biden losing a close election what do they think trump would do? Side with the Palestinians? My guess is he’d either escalate support for Israel or take a hands-off approach. Either way Palestinians lose.
Simon - appreciate your views on the campus occupations but the administration letters you publish make no mention of the students actual demands, or why it is seemingly impossible for the universities to consider agreeing to them. The major demand appears to be divestiture of college finances "supporting the Israeli government/war effort". This seems a reasonable request for consideration from students who chose their school because it stands for enlightenment and higher learning, and whose tuition dollars, in part, fund the institution. After all, they see our own government applying "sanctions" on our countries for similar reasons. What divestiture means, and how long for, can be a topic of implementation, but the administrations could defuse the situation by agreeing to the demand - or, in the case you cite, at least having the CFO and Board to Trustees discuss the proposal and what it might actually mean with student leadership. The students may well feel betrayed by their institutions, and that being civil is not effective in being heard. And despite the focus on "bad actors", as if that's a free-pass to using police force, many of the ground reports suggest the protests are largely a multi-ethnic mix, including many Israeli students who are also appalled by their government's behavior and also want their universities to take a stance against the continued bombings. You know far more more than me, so appreciate your commentary.
1) pls don't confuse American Jews and Israelis 2) there is no possibility universities can set a precedent that a group could break university rules for weeks like this and then be given everything they want - would encourage this to become a regular tactic that would literally destroy higher education in America 3) many schools have entered in good faith negotiations, like Tufts. Some have reached accommodations. Not one I have seen has settled on divestiture, but some of form of heightened consultation, as Tufts is offering 4) There is simply no reason for any one on the Board of Trustees to be involved in these negotiations. There is an Administration running the school who has been given authority by the board to make these decisions 5) I have written that I do not believe riot gear should be used on campuses, but what happened at Columbia last night was of a wholly different nature than a few tents on lawns 5) finally, as the UChicago President argues these encampments are not consistent with a culture of free expression, or are creating extraordinary public safety problems. These encampments are a violation of school policy at all these schools, so the Administration cannot be in a place where they are rewarding bad behavior or it will encourage much more of it in the future. Again, these protests are not peaceful; have not been peaceful, and by threatening to disrupt finals and gradation are becoming an unacceptable risk to the millions of other students who deserve to be able to enjoy a full and complete college experience.
Your points, and point of knowledge, appreciated. Thank you Simon.
Unless I misread, Sunil Kumar of Tufts University walks us through quite a bit of the give and take regarding the students demand and notes that the offer of further discussions and considerations are still on the table.
Simon, I think your analysis of the situation on college campuses is mostly correct. I fear, however, that many underestimate the strength of the anti-war movement among the younger generations particularly in major US cities. The conflict in Gaza is not an issue many feel comfortable speaking openly about even with close friends let alone older relatives. Support for Donald Trump slipped under the radar in 2016 when people were unwilling to speak openly about their support for him. A similar phenomenon could take place this year. While my friends and I are not in the protesting crowd, I have noticed a substantial shift over the past year or so in the attitude of people in my generation 25-35 towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict including many Jews. They have become activated on the issue. They have a stance and it looks at both Hamas and the current Israeli government with disgust and contempt. Malevolent far-right regimes that kill innocents will forever be unpopular no matter how their actions are justified or rationalized. Among my generation and the younger one I sense the beginning of a movement not dissimilar to the anti-Vietnam war, anti-Iraq war, or anti-South African apartheid movements. Whether it continues to grow or stalls out I have no idea, but just because more people are not protesting does not mean support for this Israeli government can be dismissed as a major position of Biden's that will influence liberal voters to vote for third party candidates or to stay home.
There is an enormous difference here between being critical of Bibi - which I have been on here dozens of times, as has our President - and having that position become something that people vote on in the fall. I have shared a lot of data here in recent weeks that what you suggest is not true, and that for most young people - including my 3 Gen Z kids - there are things which matter much more. I think it is wrong to label what is happening here as anti-war, that's not what this. The public for example broadly supports our funding Ukraine. This is a highly specific and highly complicated set of issues, whose "context" and complexity are often being obscured by the President's critics.
I very much appreciate your response. You are right it is not anti all wars. I have seen the data you shared and it is somewhat persuasive nationally. Though I think the data show a sizable rise in importance for a coalition fracturing issue in just 7-months to a year. In order to be more certain I would want to see how important this issue is in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. What troubles me is that this movement would not necessarily be covered in data or witnessed unless one were on good enough terms with someone to know how passionate they are about an issue. Like the silent Trump vote in 2016 or to a degree the somewhat silent pro-choice vote in 2022. There are no social hurdles to speaking about inflation or the economy that exist for these issues. I do not find people comfortable speaking openly about this issue and I've been surprised at how passionate and engaged colleagues and friends are on this issue when they actually feel comfortable discussing it. I agree that right now it won't supplant the economy, healthcare, or reproductive rights as the salient issue that people vote on. What I appreciated most about your column is the list of things that could change or shape people's understandings and how high you ranked this conflict. The longer the conflict goes on, at least in this manner, the worse Biden will look. I fear that a couple tragic events could make the issue gain enough salience to cost the President key battleground states.
Of course, refusing to vote for Biden over this would be cutting off their noses to spite their face. Now some people who would have voted third party anyway will do that, but I can't see most rational people making that choice, all things considered. It just doesn't make sense.
I completely agree. Though I think those who choose to vote third party or stay home never feel their choice is ridiculous in the moment.