The Election Is Changing, 6 Week Ban Takes Effect in Florida, The Protestors Are Blowing It Part 2

7pm ET Tonight - Hopium Paid Subscribers Monthly Gathering/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Wednesday all. Got a few things for you today:

Upcoming Events - Look forward to seeing folks at these upcoming events. If you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here.

• Wed, May 1st, 7pm ET - Our May Gathering of Hopium Paid Subscribers - Register

• Fri, May 3rd, 1pm ET - Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon

• Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register

• Thur, June 20th, Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon

• Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit - More info, register

The 2024 Election Is Changing - In a terrific discussion with Rick Wilson and Stuart Stevens last night on Resolute Square, I talked about how the 2024 election has begun to change. I want to explore that with you a bit this morning, and why it’s important.

Elections change as events provide new information to voters. The 2008 election changed in the final months when the global financial crisis struck. The 2016 election changed when James Comey re-opened an investigation into Hillary Clinton. The 2022 election changed in the spring of 2022 when Dobbs happened, two terrible mass shootings occurred and the House January 6th hearing began. This election has begun to change as voters have begun to check in, and things have gotten better for Biden and the Democrats in recent weeks. But I increasingly believe this election year is likely to be more volatile than usual, as there are many things that could happen in the coming months to change or shape people’s understandings.

Here’s an initial list:

• War in Ukraine, more Russian aggression in Europe

• Israel-Gaza, broader Middle East conflict, collapse of Netanyahu government

• The AZ and FL extreme abortion bans stripping rights and freedoms from millions of Americans

• Trump’s VP pick

• The possibility the Fed does not cut interest rates

• Elections in Europe, Mexico and many other parts of the world

• Trump’s trials, and my six things people are going to learn about him

• Pro-Palestinian protest and violence here in the US

• Other things we cannot foresee

The 2024 election is not like 1968, 2016 or 2020. It is like 2024. Every election is unique and not like any other. History in my view does not repeat itself. Part of the reason I got 2022 right was I stayed close to the ground on what was happening in that election, tracking closely developments and data as the election began to change in the spring. This election is changing now, and is likely to change a lot between now and November. Some of these developments will benefit us. Some won’t. And we have to be ready for that, and not let anything keep us from doing the work we need to do to win this year.

What I try to do here every day is share what I am seeing in this election, on this day, as I try to make sense of it all. And nothing I am seeing in an election that has begun to change and evolve alters my basic assessment of where things are right now:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

I look forward to doing a deep dive on all this in my upcoming discussions with all of you, starting tonight with our paid subscribers. For one thing remains very very clear in all the noise - six months out, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - In the next few days I will be announcing the next phase of political work together - an endorsement of top open seat and challenger candidates who will take back the House for us this November. In the mean time, we continue to support and raise money for 3 important projects:

• Biden-Harris - the big one!

• Ruben Gallego in Arizona

• The NC Dem Party and Anderson Clayton

If you are feeling anxious today make a contribution to one of these vital 2024 projects, or sign up to do some volunteer work for them wherever you are. So grateful for how much we’ve already done, and I am also so excited to see members of our community comparing notes on the work they are doing in paid subscriber chat each day…..here at Hopium we try every day to do more and worry less. Remember, hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will elections and defeat MAGA, we do the work to make it so.

The Protesters Are Blowing It, Part 2 - On Monday I shared a long post arguing the protesters were blowing it, and were pushing all of us too far. It’s pretty clear now that many protestors have decided to escalate on their campuses, and are trying to recklessly disrupt finals and graduations for millions of students across the US. On Monday I shared a note from Tufts President Sunil Kumar describing what was happening on campus. Last night he sent an update:

Dear Tufts community, 

In an effort to continue to seek a voluntary resolution to the situation on the academic quad, James M. Glaser and Kyongbum Lee, our deans of the School of Arts and Sciences and the School of Engineering, met on two separate occasions today with student representatives from the protest and a faculty member they selected. Regrettably, despite our best efforts to find a solution, the protesters have refused our offers and have continued to escalate matters by expanding the encampment on the academic quad.

The deans came to today’s meeting with several good-faith proposals to address the students’ concerns. Unfortunately, the students refused to discuss the proposals, insisting instead upon an in-person meeting with the president, the chief investment officer, and members of the board of trustees. The university agreed to such a meeting in writing on the condition that the encampment end first and that the protesters agree not to disrupt Commencement. This offer, which remains on the table, was rejected, and the meeting ended without an agreement.

In recent days, the protesters have engaged in a number of actions that have indicated their desire to escalate the situation. They brought in additional demonstrators unaffiliated with Tufts to bolster their numbers and expand their encampment. The presence of these outside protesters on campus has raised safety concerns among many in the community. The protesters have appropriated and painted furniture rented by Tufts for an Earth Day event and refused to return it to the outside company that owns it. They have harassed and intimidated staff as they try to clean areas that were vandalized. Notably, they also rejected a suggestion to move the encampment to an alternative location on campus so they could continue advocating their position while Commencement preparations begin.

Today’s meeting was not the university’s first attempt to find common ground with the protesters. On March 8, following the TCU Senate vote, the president, the provost, the executive vice president, the vice provost for inclusive excellence, and the deans of the School of Arts and Sciences and the School of Engineering met with representatives from the Students for Justice in Palestine and the Coalition for Palestinian Liberation. It quickly became clear that the students were not interested in discussing what collective action we could take to support the Palestinian people and were only interested in the university acceding to their demands.  

We continue to do everything within reason to avoid the confrontations seen at other universities. But the encampment needs to end, and Commencement setup needs to begin. We will be issuing a no trespass order to the protesters. Tufts students who do not vacate the space will be subject to the Community Standards processes which may result in suspension or other sanctions. For seniors, this may include not participating in senior week activities or Commencement. It is our strong desire that it does not come to this, and the protesters choose to leave voluntarily.

Sincerely, 
 
Sunil Kumar 
President 

The presence of non-students are many of these protests has been well-documented in recent weeks. Here’s a passage from the NYTimes this morning:

Dr. Shafik said in a statement: “We regret that protesters have chosen to escalate the situation through their actions. After the university learned overnight that Hamilton Hall had been occupied, vandalized and blockaded, we were left with no choice.”

She said that Columbia public safety personnel had been forced out of the building during the occupation and that a member of the university’s facilities staff had been threatened. “We will not risk the safety of our community or the potential for further escalation,” she said.

The university, she said, had determined by the morning that this was a law enforcement matter, and echoing the police, she said that she believed “the group that broke into and occupied the building is led by individuals who are not affiliated with the university.”

A Texas based reporter tweeted this yesterday:

Here’s is how the President of the University of Chicago’s, Paul Alivisatos addressed his community on Monday:

Dear Members of the University Community,

Just a few hours ago, a group of students established an encampment on the Main Quad as a form of protest. This particular tactic is now in widespread use at universities across the country. At some, encampments have been forcibly removed, with police arresting students and faculty in chaotic scenes that are disturbing. At others, encampments have persisted, despite attempts to shut them down with force. In some cases, encampments have resulted in major disruptions to learning and the activities of the university community. Free expression is the core animating value of the University of Chicago, so it is critical that we be clear about how I and my administration think about the issue of encampments, how the actions we take in response will follow directly from our principles, and specific considerations that will influence our judgments and actions.

The general principle we will abide by is to provide the greatest leeway possible for free expression, even expression of viewpoints that some find deeply offensive. We only will intervene when what might have been an exercise of free expression blocks the learning or expression of others or that substantially disrupts the functioning or safety of the University. These are our principles. They are clear.

Two recent examples illustrate how we bring these principles into real action. First, last quarter a student group secured university permission to cover a large fraction of the Main Quad with a massive Palestinian flag consisting of thousands of tiny colored flags. The exhibit was accompanied by signage exhorting passersby to “Honor the Martyrs,” and it was staffed by students at tables during certain hours. Those students could explain to passersby why they thought it important to feature this installation, why they thought that language was appropriate, and any other views occasioned by their installation. While this protest and accompanying message were offensive to many, there was no question that it was an exercise of free expression. It stood for weeks until the end of the approved time, at which point the student group removed it, making way for others to express their views in that space as they might see fit. This example should make it clear that we approach the issue with no discrimination against the viewpoints of those participating in this encampment. We adhere to viewpoint neutrality rigorously.

As a second illustrative example, in November, a group of students and faculty undertook an occupation of Rosenwald Hall, a classroom and administration building. That was a clear disruption of the learning of others and of the normal functioning of the University. After repeated warnings, the protesters were arrested and released. They are subject now to the University’s disciplinary process, which is still pending. In short, when expression becomes disruption, we act decisively to protect the learning environment of students and the functioning of the University against genuinely disruptive protesters.

There are almost an unlimited number of ways in which students or other members of the University community can protest that violate no policies of the University at all; the spectrum of ways to express a viewpoint and seek to persuade others is vast. But establishing an encampment clearly violates policies against building structures on campus without prior approval and against overnight sleeping on campus.

I believe the protesters should also consider that an encampment, with all the etymological connections of the word to military origins, is a way of using force of a kind rather than reason to persuade others. For a short period of time, however, the impact of a modest encampment does not differ so much from a conventional rally or march. Given the importance of the expressive rights of our students, we may allow an encampment to remain for a short time despite the obvious violations of policy—but those violating university policy should expect to face disciplinary consequences.

The impact of an encampment depends on the degree to which it disrupts study, scholarship, and free movement around campus. To be clear, we will not tolerate violence or harassment directed at individuals or groups. And, disruption becomes greater the longer the encampment persists. With a 24-hour presence, day after day, we must for example divert police resources away from public safety for our campus and our community.

If necessary, we will act to preserve the essential functioning of the campus against the accumulated effects of these disruptions. I ask the students who have established this encampment to instead embrace the multitude of other tools at their disposal. Seek to persuade others of your viewpoint with methods that do not violate policies or disrupt the functioning of the University and the safety of others. Sincerely, Paul

My hope is that in the fall colleges and universities encourage campus wide discussions on the important issues raised in these protests. But it is pretty clear that these communities should also begin to set firmer ground rules - no masks, no encampments, no non-students on campus, no harassing or physical intimidation of students, no public support for terrorist organizations that have targeted and killed Americans (Hamas and Hizbollah) - with expedited judicial processes for those who violate university policies and interfere with the ability of students to learn on campus.

As someone who will be a parent to two college students attending open, urban colleges in the fall the presence of non-students in these actions is of particular concern to me. These schools have an enormous obligation to keep their students safe, and the ongoing presence of non-students on campus is a serious security problem.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon