Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This Year, The Protestors Are Blowing It, Updated Event Schedule

Paid Subscribers Gather Wednesday, Tomorrow Is The Last Day To Subscribe and Save

Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - NBC News just dropped a fun article, In private, Biden shifts from frustration to confidence that he’ll beat Trump. An excerpt:

WASHINGTON — Over the past several weeks, President Joe Biden has privately expressed confidence that he’s going to win the November election, according to three people familiar with his comments, in a shift from the frustration with the status of his campaign that he was venting to aides just a couple months ago.  

The turnabout in Biden’s mood has been propelled in part by recent polling that shows him gaining ground against former President Donald Trump, these people said. But, they added, he’s also been buoyed by more frequent trips to battleground states and an apparent coalescence around his candidacy by some Democrats who had yet to embrace him.

The president has particularly been cheered by specific metrics his campaign advisers are now providing to him on a regular basis: the increasing number of campaign offices being opened and staff being hired, as well as efforts to expand the reach of the campaign’s low-dollar fundraising program, a Biden campaign official said.

“He just thinks he’s going to win,” one of the people familiar with Biden’s private comments said.

I agree with the President! For more on what I’m calling a new, bluer election, some resources:

• CBS polls show Biden gaining - posted yesterday. Makes the case the new CNN poll is clear outlier and should be seen that way, that we are in a close, competitive election that has moved our way in recent months. Still a long way to go, and a lot of work to do, but would much rather be us than them.

• I think we are going to kick his ass - my new sit down with Tim Miller of the Bulwark. It’s a terrific conversation, well worth your time. The post also has detailed notes on recent polling, and for those who’ve asked, here’s the data and a presentation backing up my argument about the overwhelming success of our Hispanic strategy in recent decades.

• Many Democrats are worried Trump will beat Biden. This one isn’t - My interview with Adam Nagourney of the NYTimes

• Why the Trump campaign is in deeper trouble than you think - My interview with Aaron Rupar of Public Notice

• My most recent video presentation on the 2024 election

• Biden must reinvent what a Presidential campaign is - my essay in The New Republic

• Biden’s chances are much stronger than people realize - my essay on the MSNBC site

Remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

Upcoming Events (Updated) - Look forward to seeing folks at these upcoming events, and if you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here.

• Wed, May 1st, 7pm ET - Our May Gathering of Hopium Paid Subscribers - Register

• Fri, May 3rd, 1pm ET - Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon

• Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register

• Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon

• Fri/Sat June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit - More info, register

Subscribe and Save Today - On Wednesday, May 1st an annual paid subscription here at Hopium will rise from $45 to $50. So if you are not yet a paid subscriber here and want to lock in the current lower rate, consider subscribing today. You will lock in that lower rate, and get all that you can from this site and community for the 2024 election.

A reminder that subscription renewals here at Substack grandfather in your original subscription rate for all time. So if you are already subscribed at $45 you don’t need to do anything. But if you are thinking about becoming a paid subscriber do so before May 1st and lock in this lower rate for as long as Hopium is doing it’s thing.

You can also learn more about gift and group subscriptions here.

The resources paid subscribers provide keeps this site growing and the Hopium flowing! My goal is to get 1,000 to 1,500 new paid subscribers by the end of April. So far over 1,000 have signed up - thank you everyone who has stepped up!

The Protestors Are Blowing It, Big Time - I received this email from the leadership of Tufts University, my alma mater, last night:

April 28, 2024

Dear members of the Tufts community,

Tufts has a time-honored tradition of civil protest. Consistent with that tradition, and throughout this academic year, we have balanced our students’ right to protest with enforcing our conduct policies. Students have been sanctioned when protests affected public safety, were a clear violation of our conduct policies, or interfered with normal university operations.

Over the past two weeks, we have respected our community members’ right to advocate for their beliefs through a small camp site on the academic quad on our Medford/Somerville campus. Our staff have tried to maintain open lines of communication with the goals of ensuring safety, enforcing our policies, and avoiding the escalation we have seen at other universities across the nation. We have even delayed some preparations for Commencement as much as possible to allow the protest to resolve peacefully. But now the encampment must end, ideally peacefully and voluntarily, so we can prepare the campus for Commencement. Student Life staff will be reaching out to the protesters tomorrow morning to plan for the end of the encampment in the next few days.

The class of 2024 deserves to be celebrated. Many of this year’s graduates experienced the restrictions and losses of the pandemic and missed out on important life events including the opportunity to participate in their high school graduations. Commencement is the moment to celebrate their accomplishments with their family and friends and for us to honor their achievements as a community.

Unfortunately, at this moment when we should be coming together as a community, we have seen behavior that clearly is trying to escalate the situation. Protesters, including some who are unaffiliated with Tufts, have created conditions that have caused multiple community members and guests to lodge formal complaints. While much of Friday’s demonstration was peaceful, there were many actions that violated university policies. Demonstrators entered a classroom, blocked paths, and defaced, stickered, and scrawled obscene language on buildings throughout the campus. Even beloved spaces such as Alex’s Place on the Tisch Library roof and the Jumbo statue were marred.

Additional actions from the protestors throughout Friday and Saturday made multiple visitors at Friday’s Jumbo Days and Saturday’s admissions tours feel afraid and unwelcome, resulting in numerous complaints. These included harassment, intimidation, disruption of Jumbo Days sessions, and aggressive tactics. We will investigate every single complaint and hold those responsible fully accountable.

Since the protests on campus began in October, Student Life staff have tried to keep open lines of communication with the protesters. These conversations have focused on requests intended to keep the campus operating and to keep the entire community safe and have been largely productive. But recent exchanges have been markedly different as the protesters have sought to escalate and disrupt normal university activity. Exchanges with Student Life staff are often now followed by false claims of threats and intimidation on the protesters’ social media accounts. Let us be perfectly clear: these claims are simply inaccurate and can only be seen as an attempt to further inflame the community by deliberately misrepresenting the situation.

Following Friday’s demonstration, student organizers requested a meeting with university leadership. While we have always felt that dialogue is the best approach to resolving differences, it would not be appropriate to discuss a meeting with the student organizers until they clear the academic quad. Their request, which includes a threat to continue disruption, only comes after they have escalated their actions, caused intentional and malicious harm to our community and campus, broken multiple university policies and, most importantly, violated the values and norms of the institution. The protesters’ actions increasingly come at the expense of their fellow students' rights and a meeting cannot be a reward for such behavior.

We have met with multiple students, student groups, faculty members, and others throughout the academic year to discuss ways in which the university may be able to help people in Gaza and those affected by the war in our community in the ways an educational institution can, including by supporting Scholars at Risk, helping rebuild the educational infrastructure in Gaza when the time comes, fostering dialogue and training programs on our campus, creating gathering spaces for affected Tufts community members, and funding social gatherings and meals. As we have said before, we are deeply troubled by the tremendous loss of Palestinian life, and we desire to work with all members of our community to support both the Palestinian and the Israeli people.

It is time to celebrate the class of 2024. We are committed to maintaining an environment that will allow our students to finish the academic year strong and for the entire community to celebrate the class of 2024 at Commencement without disruptions. Our students and their families and friends deserve nothing less. We invite the entire community to join us in this endeavor peacefully and responsibly.

Sincerely,

Sunil Kumar
President

Some thoughts about all this. I support the right to protest. Universities should not be bringing in police with riot gear. Bibi is an historic failure, a malevolent global force and needs to go. Too many Gazans have died.

But we need to have a serious conversation about these protests and their tactics:

• Far too often the protestors, through ignorance or malice, cross from being pro-Palestinian to supporting the genocidal axis of Hamas, Hizbollah, Iran and Russia, or calling for the elimination of Israel and Jews. In these moments these protests transform from being peaceful into calling for war and violence against Israel, the US and the West. 32 Americans were killed by Hamas last October. How in the world can American students praise them?

• The tactics the protestors use have gone far beyond peaceful protest. Disrupting events, shutting down traffic, illegally occupying property, wearing face covering, screaming “Fuck Joe Biden,” waving the flags of Hamas and Hizbollah, trashing public spaces, harassing other students on campus, etc. The idea these protests have been peaceful is ridiculous, and no civilized country could allow this behavior to go on unchallenged.

• The protests are now becoming fodder for the global and domestic propaganda and political war against the United States and Joe Biden.

  Outside people whose motives and identities are not clear are regularly joining these campus protests. The student groups at Columbia have formally complained about the presence of outsiders, something very hard for these universities to police given how open these urban campuses are and that masking has become common. Malign domestic and foreign actors are pumping up these protests on social media, attempting to build them into something that undermines the Biden campaign this year. Whatever their intent, these students are now becoming pawns in a much bigger game they little understand.

I think President Biden and Democrats need to speak forcefully and clearly this week about the protests. Peaceful protests are fine. Disruptions to campus life, law breaking, public support of the genocidal Hizbollah-Hamas-Iran-Russia axis are not. Final exams and graduations need to happen without interference. We needs to take the side of the 95%+ of students on these campuses who want to get on with their education and lives, and not the very small minority who are disrupting or threatening to disrupt campus life.

As I showed you last week, there is not broad support for these protests in America or on American college campuses. Most young people are far more concerned with making a living, their health after a pandemic, loss of reproductive freedom and our democracy, climate change, gun safety and a host of other issues. And this makes sense, for the average young person these things do matter much more to them.

I know that we are not all in agreement here about these matters, but we are at a critical moment in these protest movements. Democrats need to make it very clear that while we honor peaceful protests, we expect the protestors to allow final exams and graduations to happen without interference. We cannot for a moment appear to be okay with disrupting this critical time in the lives of millions of students, particularly for a movement that is far too often, through ignorance or malice, embracing such a deeply anti-American and anti-Western politics. By doing this we will also be doing the protestors a favor - for if they disrupt finals and graduations across the US, the hostility and opposition to their cause will explode and their movement will never recover.

Finally, I hope all universities and colleges begin planning on how to use these protests to create a respectful and serious campus-wide dialogue in the fall on the many complex issues which have been raised. These protests can become a teaching moment for a rising generation of Americans, rather than the ugly mess so many have become. We need a better and far more constructive next chapter in this conversation.

We should not fear this debate. We should welcome it.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon