Happy Wednesday all. Got a few things for you today:
Why I’m Optimistic We’ll Win This Year - Last night the Hopium community had its monthly get together. I opened it up with a 20 minute overview of the national political landscape, and then took your questions. You can watch the recording above. In my opening remarks I outlined why we should be optimistic about winning the election this November, which can be summed up this way:
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off, and we have a very strong case for re-election.
The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections across the country.
And what do Republicans have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing we've all ever seen, and a party that increasing looks like a dumpster fire and not a well oiled political machine.
I also discussed the clear recent movement we’ve seen in national polling towards Joe Biden and the Democrats, something many of us believed would happen once the general election began and the Biden campaign turned on. Since March 25th there have been 23 national polls released. Biden leads in 10, Trump in 8, we are tied in 5. To be clear - Trump no longer leads. It’s a close, competitive election that is moving in our direction. Here’s the movement towards Biden we’ve seen in some of these polls over the past few months:
8 pts - Marquette
7 pts - Echelon
6 pts - Morning Consult
4 pts - NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield and Wilton
3 pts - Big Village
2 pts - Ipsos/Reuters
The NYT poll which came out Sunday showed the race changing from Trump +5 to Trump +1 (great news). The Morning Consult/Politico poll released Monday had Biden up 45-43. Biden was down 4 in Morning Consult’s polling a few weeks ago. Yesterday, Echelon, a respected Republican pollster, released a poll showing Biden up 3, 49-46, and the Congressional Generic was also +3 Dem. Trump led in this poll by 4 points in February. This poll is a “big yikes” for Rs, and is going to create a bit of a panic in DC Republican circles, as are some of the early first quarter fundraising numbers we get into below.
It’s a new, bluer election. Two thirds of recent Congressional Generics on 538 have Democrats ahead. Polling remains good for us in the Senate, with no major incumbent struggling, and Slotkin and Gallego in good shape right now. There has been very little Presidential polling in the battleground states, but there have been polls in recent weeks showing us up in MI, PA and WI, and tied/within margin of error in North Carolina. This is the Congressional Generic - who will vote for this year for Congress? - in 538 today:
We are also starting to get 1st quarter fundraising reports in for Senate and House candidates, and once again we are seeing that same basic dynamic since Dobbs I talk so much about - heightened Democratic performance, Republican struggle. Here’s Axios this morning, “Democratic Senate candidate rout GOP in fundraising,” and here’s the charts they shared:
Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, and much will change. But right now, almost 7 months out, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them.
New Biden TV Spot Drops In PA - This one is hot off the presses:
Make Calls For Ukraine - Yesterday I asked the Hopium community to call their House Member and ask them not just to vote for the Ukraine funding bill slated for a vote this Friday, but to fight for it. Please call today, call tomorrow and keep calling to the bill passes the House. These calls matter to House offices, and even if your Member is already committed one way or the other they need to hear from you. Please ask others in your networks to join you in making calls. The stakes here are so high, and we simply must get this done this week.
Here’s a possible message for you to use when calling:
The people of Ukraine have been so brave. They have fought so hard against overwhelming odds, and lost so much. It is time America stands with them and gives them the tools they need to defeat Putin. Please do not just vote for the Ukraine funding bill this Friday, but please fight for it too. Our freedom, and the freedom of the people of the world, depends on what we do this week.
If you don’t know who your Member of Congress is you can find it here. The great Timothy Snyder makes a very powerful case for why we must stand with Ukraine in his Substack. Our paid subscriber chat was loaded yesterday with messages from our community members who made calls, and offered their advice on scripts and strategies. Thank you all for what you did yesterday. The Hopium community stepped up - as it always does. We have to keep working it today. Find time in your day to take this simple step, and let’s keep making calls for Ukraine.
Subscribe Today and Save - On May 1st an annual paid subscription here at Hopium will rise from $45 to $50. So if you want to lock in the current lower rate, consider subscribing today. You will lock in that lower rate for all time, and get all that you can from this site for the 2024 election. You can also learn more gift and group subscriptions here. Your financial support keeps this site growing and the Hopium flowing!
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects - the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Arizona’s Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Why I'm Optimistic We'll Win This Year (New Video), Make Calls for Ukraine, It's A New Bluer Election