Trump Is In A Far More Vulnerable Place Than It Appears Right Now. He Is Weak, Not Strong And Making Mistakes

Our Mad King has the highest disapproval of any President at this point in their Presidency, and concerns about his reckless economic policies are rising

Morning all. I have vowed to you to not turn Hopium into a daily catalog of the Mad King’s outrages (there a lot of them this morning) and to keep the focus on countering him. The good news today is that courageous judges are blocking elements of the extraordinary Trump/Musk crime spree and attack on the government of the United States. Trump continues to lose in courtrooms of all kinds all across the US. Yes, Trump keeps losing, and having him be seen as a loser, a failure, a weak, desperate and old man, not a strong man is critical to these next phase of our work together. As we say here, we need to keep pulling the curtain back on the Wizard, every day.

Our Mad King and his Vance have now even really pissed off The Pope:

Pope Francis issued a major rebuke Tuesday to the Trump administration’s plans for mass deportation of migrants, warning that the forceful removal of people purely because of their illegal status deprives them of their inherent dignity and “will end badly.”

Francis took the remarkable step of addressing the U.S. migrant crackdown in a letter to U.S. bishops in which he appeared to take direct aim at Vice President JD Vance’s defense of the deportation program on theological grounds.

History’s first Latin American pope has long made caring for migrants a priority of his pontificate, demanding that countries welcome, protect, promote and integrate those fleeing conflicts, poverty and climate disasters. Francis has also said governments are expected to do so to the limits of their capacity.

The Argentine Jesuit and President Donald Trump have long sparred over migration, including before Trump’s first administration when Francis famously said anyone who builds a wall to keep out migrants was “not a Christian.”

Our Daily Reminder:

Trump 2.0 is a profound, ongoing betrayal of America, and everything that has made this remarkable nation the most powerful and prosperous in the world. It is why we must fight. As dark as all this is, we cannot for one moment forget that what Trump is doing is wrong; he and his project remain deeply unstable and his coalition fractious; he is doing deeply unpopular things, going far beyond his narrow “mandate;” he is old, impulsive, reckless and clearly in decline; and extremists and ideologues are often far better at bread and circuses than governing.

Another place where Trump is struggling out of the gate right now is on the economy. Here’s the summary of the new University of Michigan consumer confidence survey that I shared on Friday. Folks are not buying what Trump is selling:

Consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month, dropping about 5% to reach its lowest reading since July 2024. The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups. Furthermore, all five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 12% slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy. Expectations for personal finances sank about 6% from last month, again seen across all political affiliations, reaching its lowest value since October 2023. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.

This important survey was their first of the Trump Presidency. It was taken after he became President. And consumer confidence dropped. It is one third lower at the beginning of this Trump Presidency that it was throughout his last one. Look at this graph. Compare Trump’s first term to now. It is much, much lower today and importantly consumer confidence DROPPED when Trump took office.

The U of Michigan team clearly believes that voters already understand that Trump’s tariffs and agenda are likely to re-ignite inflation, and that it worries them. Look at what happened to their tracking of consumer inflation expectations in recent weeks. For many consumers Trump = tariffs = higher prices = bad.

And yesterday our Mad King levied tariffs. The trade wars have begun, and prices will rise now.

With a slowing economy, rising inflation, and a clear understanding in the public that his policies are likely to hurt them Trump went ahead and started trade wars that will raise prices. From a political standpoint, given the concerns of the public about tariffs and inflation, levying the tariffs and re-igniting inflation is extraordinarily reckless. It is an opening we must seize upon.

While Trump appears to believe he is in strong shape with the public, and can afford to take wild risks, he is not in strong shape with the public. Most of the early independent polling we have show Trump with the highest disapproval rate of a President at this stage of their Presidency since polling became widely used in the 1950s. Here is a chart from 538 from the first week of the Trump Presidency:

Look at Trump’s disapproval rating in these recent independent polls. No President in polling history has seen disapproval numbers like this in their first month in office (even his “good” CBS poll had him at 47 disapprove):

• Pew 47-51

• Civiqs 46-49

• Gallup 47-48

• Morning Consult 49-48

• Economist/YouGov 48-47

• Ipsos/Reuters 45-46

In the Morning Consult weekly tracking poll I shared last night Trump’s approval has gone from 52-44 in his first week to 49-48 this week, a drop of 7 points. At this point in 2017 in their polling Trump was 49-45. Last week he dropped 3 points in the Economist/YouGov poll. Importantly, these drops are consistent with the drops in consumer confidence we saw in the U of Michigan survey. Folks are not liking what Trump is selling. From that Morning Consult summary last night:

Voters are turning on Trump’s economic approach: More voters than not still approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, trade and taxes, but his net approval rating has nonetheless fallen by 9 points on all three issues.

My point here is this - our works matters. He is not invulnerable. He is making mistakes. He is purposefully raising prices when he promised he would lower them. He is doing lots of things that will bring serious harm to the American people and the people of the world. He is breaking laws, tons of laws, and angering our closest allies. He is losing in court again and again. He is arrogant, out of control, a Mad King. Listen to this clip from his Fox News interview last night. He sounds completely batshit crazy. We are deep, really deep into Mad King territory now. WATCH THIS CLIP.

So, what do we do? We keep working peeps. Here are my current working recommendations for calls/contacts this week. Five today:

• Keep calling to stop Musk’s crime spree and assault on the US government. Encourage your Senators and Reps to file a criminal referral for him and his malicious posse to DOJ/FBI. Feel free to add that you would like funding for USAID restored so our government does not kill millions and millions of people this year in our name.

• Keep calling Attorneys General in the states. Ask them to protect you and your data/privacy, and to keep federally mandated monies flowing to your states and communities. For those in the 19 states that brought the successful Treasury suit this weekend thank them and encourage them to keep going. I still believe these 19 states should make criminal referrals of Musk/his posse to DOJ/FBI this week, and raise the stakes.

• Demand full NIH funding for biomedical research be restored. For more on this emerging story read this new article from Liberal Currents by Samantha Hancox-Li and Adam Gurri. While a judge reinstated the funding yesterday there is reporting this morning that the Administration is ignoring this court order.

• Insist they fight to challenge and rollback Trump’s tariffs which will raise prices here, strain our alliances, undermine the rules-based global order and make us a rogue, pariah nation. This is all particularly true as new data tells us the American economy is slowing, inflation is rising and consumer sentiment is dropping. There is perhaps no greater Trumpian betrayal of America than these tariffs. For more background, see this post and my recent interview with Dr. Rob Shapiro.

• Finally, all residents of New York City should be burning up the phone lines to the Mayor, City Council and the Governor denouncing Trump’s horrifically corrupt dropping of the changes against the venal Mayor, Eric Adams.

Let’s watch this incredible Nike Superbowl ad for a bit of inspiration. And yes, my friends, “winning” matters, so let us win, together:

For those wanting to do more traditional political/campaign work, we have three Hopium-backed efforts we're rallying behind right now:

Help Get Ken Martin Off To A Strong Start - In this time of extraordinary challenge we need a strong DNC. A week ago Saturday we set a goal of raising $100,000 by March 31st for our new Chair. Incredibly 1,000 of you have donated over $102,000 so far. Watch my interview with Ken about what he wants to do with the DNC, and chip in whatever you can to help Ken and the new exciting team at the DNC get off to a strong start. We now have a new stretch goal of $150,000 by March 31st after hitting our initial goal of $100,000 in just seven days!

Note that two other good friends of Hopium - David Hogg and Jane Kleeb - were elected Vice Chairs of the DNC this weekend (Jane was elected head of the ASDC which also makes her a DNC Vice Chair). You can watch my inspiring interviews with David here, and with Jane here and learn more about where they want to take the party in the days ahead.

Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front lines of the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government. We’ve raised more than $31,000 so far towards our March 31st goal of $100,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!

Help Susan Crawford and Ben Wikler in Wisconsin - As a way of honoring our good friend Ben Wikler and supporting this critical April Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, I’m asking our community to donate to the Wisconsin Democratic Party today. The money raised here will make sure Ben has the resources he needs to keep his team in place so they can support this critical statewide race. I know many of you are already deeply involved here - thank you all. More on this critical election in the coming days. Our goal is to raise $50,000 by April 1st. We’ve raised $21,000 so far - thank you all!

More - Dive into my recent interviews with folks who are making a difference. Check out our upcoming events. Paid subscribers should register for our Wednesday night event. Come see me in Bethesda, Maryland next Tuesday. Watch my new video presentation, Fighting Hard, Fighting Smart - Notes On Building A Ferocious and Effective Opposition.

Let’s close with words from FDR that I think about literally everyday. We too must “find a way” to unite and produce and fight and win…..

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon