Trump Lied About Iran Talks, DHS Minus ICE Set To Reopen, Poll: Dems Should Be Leaning Into "Elections And Democracy"

I will be with Hopium fav Anderson Clayton tonight in DC at 6pm - join us!

Morning all. I want to start by revisiting a topic from yesterday’s post - that Trump no longer seeks deals, only Venezuelan-like surrender.

Yesterday Trump claimed that progress was being made in talks with Iran. This was a lie. There are no talks with Iran right now, and in fact, the Iranians have made it clear in several interviews that the two times Trump has struck Iran in the last year have come while negotiations were talking place. Thus they have come to believe that Trump sees negotiations as a ruse to achieve create military surprise so they have no incentive to enter into negotiations with him at all. Here’s the WSJ this morning:

Iran is worried that attempts to secure a cease-fire could be a trap, Iranian officials and Arab counterparts who speak with them said.

Specifically, officials in Tehran are concerned that any face-to-face negotiations to end the war may lead to an attempt on the life of Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker and former paramilitary commander who the U.S. wants to take part in any discussions. Ghalibaf has so far been one of the few senior Iranian leaders to escape Israeli strikes.

These people also said officials in Tehran worry that President Trump’s announcement that he would postpone strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure after what he described as “productive” talks might just be an attempt to damp oil prices before resuming strikes.

At a private dinner with foreign policy veterans in Washington last night two people I spoke with talked about how nations around the world had noted that Trump has attacked while negotiating, which has then created far less interest in entering talks with the US about anything.

What “deals” has Trump struck in second term? His tariffs are levied unilaterally, and his new tariffs invalidated the fig leaf “trade agreements” his team had negotiated around the world. The appropriations bills for fiscal year 2026, legally required to be in place by October 1st, 2025, are still not completed almost six months later; and while the Senate may vote to re-open DHS this week - minus ICE - the major legislation passed by Trump has been on a party-line reconciliation vote, something they are eyeing against for ICE funding and perhaps other matters like the $200 billion war supplemental request. Reconciliation = no deals. There is no deal with Dems on reining in ICE. No deal on ending the war in Ukraine. He could not reach a deal on Greenland. He invaded Venezuela, kidnapped their leader, and stole their oil. The Gaza “deal” came after its complete obliteration. He has illegally blockaded Cuba and is demanding regime change there. And while “negotiating” with Iran he attacked them twice. No deal. He’s reneged on legally binding treaty obligations with allies throughout the world. He has violated international and domestic law, has repeatedly committed war crimes, and is illegally, immorally, covering up for Epstein’s global sex trafficking ring. How in the world do you negotiate with that?

I don’t think Trump thinks in “deals” any more. Just what he can smash and grab. And this is a big problem for how we end this current disastrous war with Iran; and suggests yesterday’s invocation of “talks” is a prelude to a ground invasion this weekend. For Trump sees “negotiations” as a sign of weakness, which is why he has literally never had serious face to face negotiations, for example, with Democrats his entire second term. For strongmen don’t negotiate - they dictate, they command, and it is all of our jobs to then YIELD and SUBMIT.

Meanwhile Brent crude this morning is $6 a barrel higher than yesterday’s mid-day lows:

US gas prices start the day at $3.97, $1.24 higher than earlier this year - a 45% increase.

Meanwhile, in our ongoing effort to not sugarcoat the gravity of what’s happening, or Trump’s Epstein desperate idiocy, here are a few more stories I’m tracking this morning:

• Iran rains missiles onto Israel and mocks Trump’s talk of joint control of strait (Reuters)

• Live updates: Iran attacks Israel and Gulf states, plays down Trump peace talks claim (NBC News)

• German president calls Iran war a disastrous mistake, in rare rebuke of Trump (Reuters)

• Trump Faces Blowback On Easing Iran Oil Sanctions (NYT)

Our addled, corrupt leader has further rewarded the Iranian-Russian alliance by backing Russia’s most European ally, Viktor Orban, in his re-election bid in the upcoming Hungarian election:

And let’s end our little waltz through all the “good” news with this beauty from CNBC - More than 40 Middle East energy assets ‘severely damaged,’ IEA chief says:

The head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged since the Iran war began, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Australia’s capital, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said damage to oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines across the Middle East would take some time to repair.

His comments come as market participants closely monitor threats from the U.S. and Iran over energy facilities as the sprawling regional conflict enters its fourth week.

The Iran war has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating what the IEA says is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been reduced by roughly 20% since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

Birol said the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis “put together.”

He added: “And, if I may, not only oil and gas. Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium. Their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

New Strength In Numbers Poll and “Elections and Democracy” - One of our favorite polls, the monthly Strength in Numbers/Verasight national poll, is out this morning with all sorts of meaty insights. Here’s a recap:

• Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 43% among registered voters — a 6-point margin. Democrats have led in every poll since we launched the monthly partnership in May 2025.

• Presidential approval: 37% approve of Trump’s job performance; 60% disapprove (net -23). Unchanged since February.

• Prices hit a new low: Trump’s approval on prices and inflation fell to net -39, down 4 points from February and the worst single-issue rating we’ve ever recorded

• Border security goes underwater: Trump’s last remaining bright spot — border security — slipped from net 0 to net -2. He is now underwater on every issue we track.

• Iran war: 58% of Americans say the war is a bad use of taxpayer dollars. 61% would oppose it if gas prices were to rise by $1 or more per gallon. Additionally, 26% of adults say the war will make Americans safer, vs 51% who say less safe.

• Direction of country: Only 10% say things are going well in America. 52% say things are going poorly and major changes are needed. 33% say “things could be going better.”

• Buyer’s remorse: 13% of Trump voters say they regret how they voted in 2024 — twice the rate of Harris voters.

This month G. Elliott Morris added a new option to his “most important issue” battery - elections and democracy. It yields results similar to what we’ve seen in other polls - high salience, Dem advantage, and a clear suggestion for Dems to lean in.

Here’s Morris’ notes on this new approach:

This is encouraging data as we heads into the biggest No Kings weekend yet!

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will be appearing at two events in the DC area in the coming days:

Tonight, Tue, March 24, 6pm - I’m co-hosting a fundraising reception in Washington, DC with the great Anderson Clayton for the North Carolina Democratic Party. Tickets start at $100 for this event near the Cathedral in NW DC.

Thur, April 9, 7pm - The Women’s Democratic Club of Montgomery County, MD hosts “An Evening With Simon Rosenberg.” Register here. It will take place at the Round House Theatre in downtown Bethesda, MD. Tickets start at $25 - sign up today!

Looking forward to seeing members of the Hopium community in person!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $346,100 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing tomorrow night.

James Talarico For Texas - $34,100 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $52,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. | Watch my new interview with Mary Peltola

Winning Ohio - $82,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $90,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $145,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $422,800 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Sign Up For No Kings on March 28th

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; sign up for a No Kings event and watch my new interview with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin, a driving force behind No Kings.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, rescind the tariffs, and on blocking the “SAVE Act.”

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon