Trump's New War, Day 3 - Ongoing Incoherence, Rising Oil Prices, Global Chaos, And Oops! We Are Already Sending In Additional Troops

My event this morning with Stuart Stevens has been postponed. He's in Ukraine, and no longer able to join us....

Greetings everyone. I think we have to grow comfortable now with the reality that Trump may not have completely thought through his attack on Iran, didn’t take the steps required to make success more likely, and/or somehow dismissed the risks, focusing only on the imagined rewards. That he just woke up last Friday, ailing and old, desperate and scared, flailing and failing, got some “encouraging” intel, checked with Jared, put on his crown, chomped on a Big Mac, called Raisin’ Caine, and told him to go for it baby!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump didn’t build an international coalition to create legitimacy. Didn’t prepare the American people for war. Didn’t consult with or get Congress’ approval - as is required by US law and the Constitution. Didn’t spend months building up stockpiles of weapons for a protracted conflict. Didn’t help his business partners in the Middle East prepare for potential Iranian retaliation. Didn’t prepare his own party for what happens if oil prices spike, inflation surges, the markets fall, our planes get shot shot down, and dead Americans keep coming home.

And here we are…….

It was clear in those heady days after kidnapping Maduro he and the regime believed that they had found a way to make this terrible man STRONG and MIGHTY again. Like a young boy telling his parents that he can fly, watch! Trump went to the NYT to announce himself a monarch, no longer bound by anything but “his own mind.” The Hand of the new Iron Throne, Stephen Miller, went on cable news to proclaim the dawn of a new era of Trumpian POWER and MIGHT. They were heady days indeed, those early days of January, and the next target came into view - Greenland.

That’s when things started to, how do you say, go to shit? The Europeans said no, and threatened, clear material financial harm to the US if we proceeded. Our new Monarch, Emperor of the Americas, High Lord of the Western Hemisphere, was forced to back down, shockingly finding that indeed there were limits to his power other than “his own mind.” And then these reminders kept coming - the Epstein scandal escaped containment, and elites throughout the world began to fall, even English princes. The economy slowed way down, inflation has been reignited, no jobs were created in 2025, crypto has crashed, and his illegal, Imperial tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court. Videos of his out of control domestic terror force murdering American citizens on the streets of Minnesota overwhelmed social media feeds across the country. His mid-decade redistricting push has become a debacle. One of his most loyal allies, MTG, has become a searing and vocal critic, breaking through in the MAGA media bubble. Both houses of Congress voted to repeal his tariffs. Congressional Democrats refused to fund DHS unless ICE was reined in. Newly planned detention centers/concentration camps were blocked. Democrats kept winning elections even in red districts in Louisiana and Texas FFS. And the polls. They just kept coming down, on everything, by every measure, even on the very foundation of the Trump white supremacist brand - immigration. The State of the Union, full of soon to be forgotten theatrical flourishes, failed to move the needle, and exposed that he had nothing to sell to the voters in 2026. The chances of a Democratic takeover next year was feeling far more likely, and everywhere, everywhere, people were openly, howdaringly, defying the Mad King.

Something needed to be done. So we got war. An ill-thought out, impulsive, desperate, dangerous, illegal action by an ailing, sundowning man terrified by the ebbing of his powers, and that he may have to face accountability for his lawless crime spree of the past year; and perhaps more terror inducing, for his raping and beating of a thirteen year old girl in his Epstein days.

So, yes, we got Trump’s New War.

We got a war that due to lack of preparation and far greater degree of complexity has a much higher likelihood of failure than many of Trump’s previous authoritarian spasms. And this morning things sure do not look like they are going well. Americans are dead. Our planes are falling from the sky. Iran’s retaliation against Trump’s Gulf Arab partners has been much more intense than anticipated. Oil prices are rising. Stocks falling. We bombed a girls school and killed over 100 children. Leaders Trump imagined could run a new Iran were killed in the campaign’s earliest hours.

Trump ran the war this weekend from his country club, not the White House (WTF!!!!!), and has not appeared live on camera since the war began. There isn’t yet a single coherent argument for why we are at war or any clear strategy for what we are trying to achieve. Americans were killed in Austin this weekend by what appears to be an Iranian-inspired terror attack and Trump’s DHS is shut down, and our terrorist fighting capacities at home have been degraded to bolster ICE.

This morning, on just the third day of Trump’s new war, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Raisin’ Caine, announced the US was sending more troops to the region, suggesting that war planning mistakes have already been made. He also warned of that more Americans were going to die in combat. Hegseth sounded like the blustering idiot we all know him to be, and again we haven’t seen Trump.

Both Houses of Congress will see War Powers Acts resolutions introduced this week. Debate in the Senate could begin as early as tomorrow. Can Trump keep his coalition together, prevent another humiliating rebuke by Congress? I don’t know.

Early polls have been bad for Trump. Here’s YouGov on Saturday. Only 34% support:

Here’s Reuters-Ipsos yesterday. 27% support:

Here’s a great chart from G. Elliott Morris putting this early data in historical perspective:

The Reuters-Ipsos poll found Trump found at 38% approve, 60% disapprove, 4 points lower than their last poll. It also had this remarkable data, showing just profound, across the board repudiation of Trumpism itself. I believe this is the first poll showing his approval on inflation/cost of living/tariffs in the 20s:

I talked about all this last night with Anthony Davis in a new, extended interview for MeidasTouch. Our event with Stuart Stevens this morning has been postponed, for Stuart is in Ukraine, and things changed on the ground where he is (yes he is safe). Barring a change I am interviewing Rep. Adam Smith, ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee, later this afternoon and will have that out to you early this evening.

As we go forward our addled leader is asking us to trust this ridiculous person to do right by us:

So, let’s make our calls today everyone. We need to call to urge Congress to pass the War Powers resolutions, and to not yield on reining in ICE. The Republicans are waging an intense campaign now to use the war to get Dems to vote to re-open DHS without ICE reforms, and we must encourage our leaders to hold the line.

Now, everyone……

Let’s Get To Work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $279,400 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing later this month.

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $388,600 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $40,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

Winning Ohio - $65,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $135,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Study The Spangerberger And Padilla Speeches

Two more ways you can go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in both the illegal war in Iran abroad and ICE at home.

I also strongly advise studying the speeches from Governor Spanberger and Senator Padilla this week. They charted a new, powerful rhetorical path forward for our movement, one that we can all use in our own work each day.

Keep working hard everyone. The momentum is with us, and we need to keep fighting as hard as we can - Simon