Morning all. As I sat to write this am got some important economic news. First, Trump announced a 25% + tariff on India, a reminder that the tariffs he has announced so far, 15% on Europe and Japan, are just a floor. Many countries are going to be assessed a much higher rate. It is clear now that America will be returning to tariff levels similar to the Smoot-Hawley levels that helped drive our economy into Depression in the 1930s…..
Here’s the FT’s Ed Luce on Trump’s latest destructive play in his “Make Russia and China Great Again” playbook of sabotage, plunder and betrayal:
The second bit of news is that GDP growth came in at 3% in the second quarter after clocking in at -0.5% in the first. While they will be celebrating this new data in MAGA affiliated media, here is how the reality-based media is covering it this morning, from the Washington Post:
But economists warn that the latest figures, which were boosted by tariff-related swings in trade, is likely painting a more upbeat picture of the economy than is warranted. American businesses purchased far fewer imports — which ends up counting against GDP — in the second quarter, because they had already stocked up on foreign goods earlier in the year ahead of President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs. A corresponding surge in overall exports made up the bulk of the economy’s recent strength.
“It’s hard to know exactly what’s happening because the whole trade war is leaving a real imprint on macroeconomic data,” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price. “But the picture isn’t as rosy as a 2- or 3-percent growth rate would indicate.”
The U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient, even as inflation, policy uncertainty and heightened recession fears have weighed on recent growth. Still, warning signs are beginning to emerge: Americans say they are feeling worse about the economy than they have in years, as new trade and immigration policies take hold. Many are bracing for a spike in prices from new tariffs, while others are worried about losing their jobs in a slowing labor market. Although the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, is relatively low, new data this week showed a slowdown in job postings and hiring in June.
As a result, consumers, who drive nearly 70 percent of the economy, have recently begun tapping the brakes on spending. They are buying fewer cars, forgoing restaurant meals, downsizing summer vacations and taking on more debt.
“Consumer spending was very strong coming out of the pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But since December, it’s flatlined. The American consumer may not be pulling back, but they are certainly sitting on their hands.”
Business owners, too, are increasingly holding off on investments and hiring, as they wait to see how tariffs, deportations and other emerging policies might affect consumer demand. Although many economists expect growth to taper off in the second half of this year, it is unclear exactly how the Trump administration’s actions might ripple through the economy.
“We’re going to see a bounce back from the first quarter, but the only way to make sense of these GDP numbers is to average the first and second quarters together,” said Jason Furman, an economics professor at Harvard University and former economic adviser to President Barack Obama. “And if we do that, it looks like growth is going to be really quite disappointing and well below the pace we’ve enjoyed in previous years.”
The Federal Reserve is also waiting for clarity — waiting to see how new policies affect inflation, hiring and other key parts of the economy — before it cuts interest rates further. The central bank this afternoon is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged for a fifth straight time, despite persistent pressure from the president to slash interest rates.
A new report from The Working Class Project this morning details discussions they’ve been having with voters this year and conclude that Democrats should be leaning much harder into Trump’s tariff madness:
These working class voters provide a useful snapshot into how the very segment of voters who powered Trump to victory in 2024 are feeling unsatisfied with his economic stewardship so far. All these voters agree that prices have either stayed high or are going up. Things haven’t gotten cheaper for them, and they specifically name Trump’s biggest signature economic policy as making things worse, not better. Their hope was that tariffs would at least create manufacturing jobs in the United States, but those aren’t materializing either.
The biggest concern we’ve seen in these discussion boards is that, over time, Trump’s tariffs have become less front-of-mind for these voters. As the tariffs drift in and out of voters’ minds, it will be important for Democrats to consistently message that his tariff actions are directly contributing to higher prices and a more unaffordable economy – and failing to deliver the manufacturing jobs he promised they would. This is especially important as Trump tries to roll out various supposed “trade deals” with messaging that claims the opposite.
Stick to what people are experiencing economically in their daily lives. If the costs of goods and services are high or going up because of trade uncertainty and tariffs, consistently remind voters that Trump’s tariffs are causing this reality and things aren’t getting better.
Trump’s escalating tariff madness is giving Democrats an incredible opportunity to go on offense on affordability and his betrayal of working Americans and our closest allies. We need to seize it.
Last week was Trump’s worst week of polling so far this year. While we’ve gotten fewer polls this week two prominent polls show Trump dropping further:
Economist/YouGov (adults) - 40%-55% (-15), down from 41%-55% (-14) last week
Ipsos/Reuters (adults) - 40%-56% (-16), down from 41%-54% (-13) two weeks ago
Here’s my weekly breakdown of the Economist/YouGov poll. Note his double digit deficits with Americans making less than $100,000. His numbers with Hispanics and young people are his worst so far in 2025:
My weekly video and analysis last week was titled “Things Are Bad For Trump Now. They Are Likely To Get Worse.” His tariff madness is making things worse; in these polls things are worse; yesterday things got a lot worse in the Epstein affair, a lot worse……
“He Stole Her” - The disgusting felon and adjudicated sex criminal running our country made his Epstein problem a whole lot worse yesterday. From USA columnist Rex Huppke:
President Donald Trump has a new explanation for why he ended his long friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The story now involves Epstein stealing away Mar-a-Lago spa employees in Palm Beach, Florida, an apparently unforgivable sin.
On July 29, aboard Air Force One, Trump was asked more about this employee stealing, and he flashed his true colors, instantly making the spiraling Epstein scandal measurably worse. Without a hint of empathy or compassion, the president said Epstein “stole” a teenage Mar-a-Lago spa worker named Virginia Giuffre.
Trump used that word: stole. As if Giuffre, who would become one of the most public of Epstein’s accusers, was a piece of property wrongly poached by the notorious sex trafficker.
She was 17 at the time she was lured away from Mar-a-Lago by Epstein and his partner Ghislaine Maxwell. Giuffre would later say she was “passed around like a platter of fruit” to rich, powerful men in Epstein’s circles.
Giuffre died by suicide only three months ago, having lived much of her life as an advocate for survivors of sex trafficking.
And this is how Trump spoke about her when asked if she was one of the Mar-a-Lago workers drawn away by Epstein: “I think she worked at the spa. I think so. I think that was one of the people. He stole her. And by the way, she had no complaints about us ... none whatsoever.”
Live Event on Standing Up For Science Today At Noon ET - Our rash of informative events and talks with leading electeds continues today with an important live discussion about our efforts to preserve American’s global scientific leadership today at Noon ET; paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm; and I will be joining Jen Rubin and The Contrarian live tomorrow at 915 ET.
More details, links to all our events can be found on the Events page on the main Hopium site. All of our live events are free and open to the public, so we encourage you to invite friends and colleagues. Remember you can find all of my interviews/podcasts on the Hopium site under Podcast and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too including our new discussions with Rep. Josh Riley (NY-19) and my must-watch discussion yesterday with Professor Leah Litman on the historic corruption of the Roberts Court.
Senator Alex Padilla Joins Hopium - Yesterday Senator Alex Padilla sat down with us for an extended conversation in this final week before the Senate summer recess. It was a ride-ranging conversation that touched on Trump’s immigration escalation, the coming budget debate, tariffs and the White House’s attempt to break or undermine the Congressional budgeting process. I encourage you to get to it when you have the time. The recording and transcript are above.
The moment that is still sticking with me this morning was when the Senator reminded us that those essential workers Trump celebrated during COVID are the very same ones being targeted now by ICE:
The tariff wars that Donald Trump is losing are driving costs up, and it's going to be more expensive to deliver goods and services if there are fewer workers doing those jobs. And on that point, I just got to call out the ironic cruelty here. At the end of the Trump Administration, the first one, the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic was actually Donald Trump's Dept. of Homeland Security that designated so many workers "essential," people in agriculture, in the food supply chain, in transportation, in construction, in health care, et cetera. And they were essential then. Now they seem to be the primary target of these arrests, detentions, deportations. That's cruel and it's bad for the country.
It’s a great conversation with one of our most important emerging Democratic leaders on the front lines in the battle against Trump. Get to it when you can.
Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here at Hopium we like to do. Here we are proud, plucky, patriots but we are also put your head down, grind it out, get shit done doers. Trump and Republicans have stumbled, and given us a big opportunity now to tell our story and win back power. So let’s get to work everyone!
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Note that Governor Roy Cooper announced a record breaking $3.4m fundraising haul in his first 24 hours in the race. Amazing stuff everyone! Can we get it to $10m by the end of his first week? Let’s keep working it…..
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Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025. We can do this people!
Our Recommended Actions - We are prioritizing three actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it:
1 - Call your Senators and Rep To Demand They Revoke Trump’s Terrible Tariffs - Congress simply must take back its tariff authority that Trump has illegally and unconstitutional seized and dangerously abused; and at the very least they must stop what will be Trump’s ruinous new tariff increases slated to start on August 1st. Trump’s economic plan has failed, and we need to find a better way forward.
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 50 resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Our newly updated Resolutions page includes a new chat for folks to report in on their progress or seek counsel from those interested in launching a resolutions project in their community. This is one way to fight back against Trump’s unprecedented abandonment of our Constitutional order.
3 - Grow Hopium And This Wonderful Community Of Proud, Plucky, Patriots - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Election Day, 2025. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.
To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too.
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it truly is - Simon
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