Trump's Very Bad Week, Part II

Let's head into the Holidays a bit more optimistic about our ability to limit the damage and chaos of the coming Trump Presidency

Happy Saturday all. Last night the Democrats swooped in and helped a struggling GOP pass bills in the House and Senate to keep the government open through March. President Biden has just signed the measure and we will all be able to head off for the Holidays without worrying about what chaos Trump and Elon and MAGA may bring. For now, at least.

The bloom has come off the post-election Trumpian rose. The essential ugliness of his project that is often discounted or obscured in our daily discourse became the story this week. The warning signs about the chaos he will bring and the damage he will do to the country are now there for all to see and are impossible to ignore. Let’s review:

Trump is already unraveling the strong economy he is inheriting. Markets and our allies are not happy - As has been well covered by economists and journalists, Trump’s economic agenda of tariffs and mass deportations will raise prices, re-ignite inflation, slow economic growth and increase the deficit. This week the Fed and financial markets started coming to terms that the US government may, in a month, start implementing an agenda that unravels the current strong and stable US economy and undermines the broader global economy that has made the US and the world so prosperous in recent decades. Due to concerns about Trump’s inflationary agenda the Fed announced a more “hawkish” position and is scaling back its interest rate cut ambitions in 2025. Mortgage rates are already rising. The stock market indices lost ground in the past two weeks. All of a sudden the strong and stable US economy is looking a bit wobbly - due to fears of what Trump may do.

It is likely now that Trump’s agenda is already damaging the US economy even before he takes office will spur calls from other Republicans and US business leaders for Trump to scale back or curtail his inflationary plans. Trump’s economic honeymoon ended this week, as his dangerous plans started being taken seriously by the US government and the markets. It is my hope that President Biden writes the next President a letter in the coming days urging him to back off his reckless economic agenda and preserve and protect the remarkable economy he is inheriting. The warning signs are there for all of us to see.

Trump’s ongoing and aggressive tariff threats have already angered our closest allies and largest trading partners in Canada, Mexico and Europe. Trade wars and retaliatory tariffs would not just increase prices on every day goods, re-igniting inflation and harm the people Trump vowed to protect, it would weaken the Western alliance and make America far less safe. What Trump is threatening would not just unravel the strong economy he inherited, it would start to unravel the entire post-WWII American led global order that has made us prosperous and kept us safe and free.

The very first paragraph of the Intelligence Community’s January 2017 report on Russian interference in the 2016 election read:

Russian efforts to influence the 2016 US presidential election represent the most recent expression of Moscow’s longstanding desire to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order, but these activities demonstrated a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations.

What Trump is doing now should also be seen an escalation to undermine the “US-led liberal democratic order.” The warning signs are there for all of us to see.

Trump’s Maniacal Efforts To Throw The Country Into Chaos Were Rebuffed By His Own Party - Trump’s legislative and political miscalculations this week were among the most significant I’ve seen in my 32 years here in DC. He was goaded into coming out against the must pass bi-partisan bill and crashing the US government by a lie-infused Elon Musk, and then added his own wild demands for ending the debt ceiling. The replacement bill Trump supported failed due to Republican - not Democratic - opposition on Thursday. Then last night his party along with Democrats in both chambers overwhelmingly passed a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through March without the one thing he demanded - a suspension or elimination of the debt ceiling, something he told Republicans they needed to fight for and keep the government shut until they won.

Trump was politically weakened this week, and it was all impulsive, reckless, self-inflicted wounds. He followed Elon, a bomb-throwing pro-Russia extremist, and got terribly burned. Speaker Johnson was also weakened, and the Republican Party, looked immature, foolish and not ready to govern. This was a fucking disaster for Trump and the Republican Party, and the media is being remarkably direct in saying so this morning. Here’s Axios’ lead story today:

The article then lists these recent Trumpian/MAGA stumbles:

• John Thune was elected to be Senate majority leader, despite a fevered push by Trump allies to elect Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) He didn't even make it past the first round of votes.

• Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) was forced to withdraw from consideration to be attorney general. Despite being celebrated by some in Trump's orbit, the votes weren't there from Senate Republicans.

• 38 House Republicans defied Trump by voting against a short-term spending deal he explicitly asked for.

• Congressional Republicans went against Trump's wishes again by voting for a spending bill that didn't include an increase in the country's debt ceiling.

The NYT:

Something unusual happened this week after President-elect Donald J. Trump ordered House Republicans to back legislation raising the debt limit: Dozens refused.

It was a rare breach by a group of Republicans who have traditionally backed Mr. Trump’s policy preferences unquestioningly and taken pains to avoid defying him.

And it laid bare a disconnect between Mr. Trump and his party that could upend their efforts next year to pass transformative tax and domestic policy legislation with the tiniest of majorities. Even as Mr. Trump has displayed a laissez-faire attitude to the federal debt and a willingness to spend freely, a number of lawmakers in his party fervently adhere to an anti-spending philosophy that regards debt as disastrous.

In this week’s spending bill fight, Mr. Trump was intent on trying to absolve himself of responsibility for dealing with the debt ceiling, which is expected to be reached sometime in January. Raising it while President Biden was still in office and Democrats still held the Senate, he apparently believed, could avoid a messy internal Republican fight over the issue next year when Mr. Trump is in the White House and his party in full control of Congress.

Instead, he only accelerated that clash, which unfolded on the House floor on Thursday night when 38 Republicans refused to suspend the borrowing limit without spending cuts.

They tanked a spending plan that would have deferred the debt cap for two years, and by Friday, when Speaker Mike Johnson advanced a third proposal to avert a shutdown to the House floor, they had jettisoned the debt limit measure entirely, promising instead to deal with it next year.

That version passed the House on Friday evening with bipartisan support, before the Senate followed suit early Saturday and sent it to Mr. Biden for his expected signature. The only lawmakers voting to oppose it in the House — all 34 of them — were Republicans.

“To take this bill, to take this bill yesterday, and congratulate yourself because it’s shorter in pages, but increases the debt by $5 trillion, is asinine,” Representative Chip Roy of Texas said on Thursday night in a scathing speech deriding the legislation carrying the debt limit increase. “I’m absolutely sickened by a party that campaigns on fiscal responsibility and has the temerity to go forward to the American people and say you think this is fiscally responsible.”

The Washington Post:

President-elect Donald Trump’s last-minute demands for a congressional funding package were rejected by dozens of Republicans this week, foreshadowing the legislative challenges he could face next year — even with unified GOP control.

Trump’s role in sinking a bipartisan deal to fund the government — and his public insistence that any spending bill lift the debt ceiling — led to a failed vote on the House floor Thursday evening. More than three dozen members of his own party voted against the deal he’d endorsed hours earlier. The Senate passed a new bill to avert a government shutdown early Saturday; the bill did not include Trump’s debt limit demand.

The drama highlighted the limits Trump faces in bending his entire party to his will, as Republicans hold a narrow margin in the House and remain ideologically split over government spending.

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For Trump to have put himself into a position of taking such a huge and consequential loss before even becoming President is big-time, holy-shit, political incompetence and is being see that way all across this city. It has weakened him with the very people he needs to pass his agenda passed and get his outrageous nominees through. It has been a stunning - and encouraging - few days.

The Gaetz Report And His Unacceptable 4 - If the Gaetz ethics report is released in coming days it will further weaken Trump as it will be a powerful reminder of his impulsive recklessness and extremism. I think the release of the report and Trump’s huge stumble this week will also make it harder for him to get through his more outrageous and unacceptable nominees - Gabbard, Hegseth, Kennedy and Patel - as Congress may be a bit more comfortable about drawing lines against Trump’s more dangerous actions.

In this spirit that people are starting to come to terms with the dangers and recklessness of Trumpism - recognizing that it isn’t just “locker room talk” or that there are actually bullets in the gun - we are learning today that the man who committed the lethal terrorist attack in Germany yesterday was a devout follower of Elon Musk:

As I wrote to you yesterday as we transition from the governing to opposition party and fight the darkness we will need to take the wins when they come, celebrate them and build on them. We’ve had some huge wins this week my friends, and let’s head into the Holidays a bit more optimistic about our ability through hard work and unrelenting love of country to limit the damage and chaos of the coming Trump Presidency.

More On The 2024 Election and What Comes Next - For a comprehensive look at 2024 and what comes next see these four new talks with leading state Democratic Party chairs: (each video interview comes with a transcript for those who would like to read rather than watch or listen):

• On The Future Of The DNC and The Democratic Party - With Ken Martin, Minnesota Democratic Party Chair and A Leading Candidate For DNC Chair

• On Winning In Wisconsin and the Future of the DNC and Democratic Party - With Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair and A Leading Candidate for DNC Chair

• On Winning The Blue Dot And The Urgent Need To Invest in Democratic Party, Partisan Infrastructure - With Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair

• On North Carolina’s Impressive Downballot Wins - With Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democratic Party Chair

Other recent videos in our What Happened, What Comes Next series for your Holiday viewing and listening pleasure:

• On Winning Arizona And Getting Latinos Back - With Senator-Elect Ruben Gallego

• On Winning Virginia In 2025 - With Rep. Abigail Spanberger, The Democratic Nominee for Governor of Virginia | Learn more about Abigail | Volunteer | Donate To Her Campaign

• On Trump’s Big Gains With Young People, Particularly Young Men - With John Della Volpe Of Harvard’s Institute Of Politics

• On The Power of Networks - With Joe Trippi, Legendary Democratic Strategist and Campaign Manager, Founder Sez Us and Resolute Square

• On Reinventing Government and The Perils of DOGE - With Dr. Elaine Kamarck Of Harvard and The Brookings Institution

You may also find these two segments from our fall Closing Strong collaboration with COURIER Newsroom and Tara McGowan helpful:

• On The Need For Pro-Democracy Media - With COURIER’s Tara McGowan and Crooked Media’s Dan Pfeiffer

• Beyond MAGA Creators - Russia’s influence on the Republican Party runs deep with Stewart Stevens and Jiore Craig

And here are my most important recent post-election analyses, both in words and video, if you haven’t gotten to them yet (and oldie but goodie too):

• More Notes On Trump’s Unprecedented Ugliness And Becoming The Ferocious Opposition - includes early thinking about how the Hopium community evolves next year

• For Dems It’s A Time For Re-imagination, Re-invention and Innovation (video too)

• Learning How To Tell Our Story More Effectively

• More Notes On What Happened And What Comes Next (video too)

• “Getting Louder” - A conversation about building pro-democracy media with Ben Meiselas (MeidasTouch), Tara McGowan (COURIER Newsroom), Joe Trippi (Resolute Square) and David Rothkopf (DSR Network)

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon