Good morning all. As there is, all of a sudden, a lot going on you will receive two posts from me today. The first is my post below and the video recording of my talk with Hopium paid subscribers. The recording is above. In the presentation I do three things: 1) thank everyone for helping make this community so effective, meaningful and fun over the past two years 2) talk about how Trump is already doing enormous harm to the country a month before he takes office, and why Democrats must be far more aggressive in saying so and challenging him 3) offer my latest thinking on why 2024 was not like our successful elections in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and early 2024, and where we go from here.
As I discuss in the video one of my central takeaways from 2024 is that there was a collective failure to define Trump over the past several years, and that we allowed him to rehabilitate himself and become acceptable to far too many voters. In 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and early 2024 the most important issue in our politics, the thing that drove those elections, was fear and opposition to MAGA. It wasn’t the most important issue in 2024. We need to learn from this and make it the most important issue again in our politics, starting with the battle to define and knock out Trump’s most egregious and dangerous nominees; and to aggressively talk to the American people about what happened yesterday.
Yesterday the GOP’s post-election honeymoon ended. The extremist threat Trump represented was no longer “locker room talk” but became real and proximate. First, we learned that the House has voted to release the Gaetz ethics report in the next few days. That Trump will have trusted this depraved MAGA to be Attorney General will damage him and help us make the case against his unacceptable 4 - Gabbard, Hegseth, Kennedy and Patel. These four nominees give us a collective opportunity to define Trump early as a reckless, dangerous extremist who wants to do enormous harm to the country.
Next, while cutting interest rates a quarter point, the Fed made it clear that is was slowing rate cuts next year due to fears of the inflationary impact of Trump’s economic agenda. Here’s Fitch via CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla:
The stock market tanked as the realization that Trump may actually work to undo the very strong economy he has inherited.
Then, Elon Musk decided to kill the bi-partisan House bill designed to keep the government open through March, something that would have smartly given Trump plenty of breathing room in his early days. From The Washington Post this morning:
Congressional leaders had lined up on Tuesday to approve a spending bill that would avert a government shutdown — before Elon Musk, President-elect Donald Trump’s “first buddy,” injected himself into the conversation in the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
With a five-word post on X, Musk threw the process into chaos.
“This bill should not pass,” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO wrote at 4:15 a.m. Eastern time, a message that reverberated across Washington, where some took it as the strongest signal yet of the new reality under the head of the “Department of Government Efficiency,” Trump’s nongovernmental panel charged with finding ways to slash federal spending.
Over the ensuing 12 hours, Musk went on a prolific tirade against the bill — with more than 60 updates, some of which boosted false claims — that stood out even for a chronic poster who has commanded an audience of more than 200 million followers by broadcasting his largely uninhibited views on the site he owns.
By midday, Musk’s barrage was increasingly acerbic, decrying the bill as “terrible,” “criminal,” “outrageous,” “horrible,” “unconscionable,” “crazy” and, ultimately, “an insane crime.” He also took aim at those who would support it.
“Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!” Musk wrote shortly after 1 p.m. Wednesday.
To leaders in Washington, it appeared he was serious. Musk did not respond to a request for comment.
Musk’s word on the funding extension ricocheted around Capitol Hill, as lawmakers jockeyed to invoke his DOGE as reason to reject the legislation that would put off a Christmastime government shutdown.
So in one day we got 1) renewed attention to Trump’s depraved and dangerous nominees 2) Trump’s agenda already doing significant harm to the US economy 3) the Russian-backed Trump/Musk wrecking ball publicly savaging the Republican Speaker and killing his bi-partisan bill to keep the government open over the Holiday season two days before the government shuts down. Depraved leaders, weakening economy, savage attack on GOP Speaker and government shutdown all in one day.
Trump is already doing enormous harm to the country a month before he is in office and Democrats need to wake from their post-election slumber and tell this story, aggressively, relentlessly to the American people now. For as we learned in the 2024 election, if we do not tell this story it will not be heard, and somehow it will all eventually get turned against us. We have a huge opportunity now to define the Trump Presidency as extreme, dangerous, reckless in these early days and we need to seize it. What is happening now is an early test of whether we understand what it takes to be a successful opposition party, a ferocious opposition as I call it, and it is one we must simply pass.
In the presentation I then offered some additional ideas on what Democrats should be considering as we move forward, together. These ideas comes from my recent post and presentation, “For Dems It’s A Time For Re-invention, Re-imagination and Innovation:”
It Was A Very Close Election, and We Had Important Wins - Trump won by 1.5 points and fail to reach 50%. 115,000 votes changing in MI, PA, WI and Harris wins. We picked up a seat in the House and were less than 4,000 votes from making Hakeem Jeffries Speaker. We had important downballot wins in AZ, NC, MI, NV, PA, WI. While we have work to do this was a narrow win not a landslide, and our road back is not insurmountable. I go deeper into all this here.
Finding More Voters, Forging A New Majority - The dramatic gains Trump made with Latinos and young people (particularly young men) unraveled the coalition that had gotten us 51% of the vote on average over the last four Presidential elections. We will need to imagine and build a new majority coalition now and need a concerted party wide effort to make gains with voters of all kinds - working class, rural, Latinos, young men, etc.
Getting On The Right Side Of Opportunity/Winning The Big Economic Argument - As I wrote the other day, we need a deep and long conversation about how we can win the big economic argument with MAGA in the coming years. 3 consecutive Dem Presidents have left the country far better than we found it. 3 consecutive GOP Presidents have been economic and societal wrecking balls. We should not be losing the economic argument to these guys, or losing ground with working class voters given our economic track record. There needs to be urgency about finding a better path here, and it is very possible that Trump’s dangerous economic plans - tariffs, mass deportation, huge tax cuts for wealthy Americans, spending cuts for everyone else - will give us a big opportunity to make our case very soon (sure looks that way!!!)
Getting Louder/Building A 24/7/365 Politics - This is a familiar topic for Hopium readers, but there is real urgency here too. For background see my post-election posts on the need for us to get louder here, here, here and most recently this one on how we need to get far smarter in how we strategically contest the right’s information superiority in our campaigns themselves. I am going to be talking a lot about the need to see the millions of people supporting our campaigns as “partners in the fight, not donors to the cause” and help unlock not just the financial or volunteer potential of our family but also its capacity to become information warriors and amplify.
Advancing A New Reform and Renewal Agenda - In a recent post I discussed the need for Democrats to develop a broad agenda for renewal and reform, a topic we’ve been discussing here for many months and one central to my February New Republic essay, Biden Must Reinvent What A Presidential Campaign Is. In this period of opposition we must not only oppose, but must also propose.
While Focusing On Kitchen Table Issues, We Cannot Leave Behind The Harris-Walz Campaign’s Powerful Embrace of Freedom and Patriotism - We can both be focused on improving the lives of everyday Americans and lean hard into the powerful love of country themes the Vice President advanced during her campaign. This is particularly true in the fights for our personal freedoms and rights of all kinds including reproductive freedom.
As I wrote to you yesterday in times of turmoil and transformation there is opportunity. Yesterday Trump gave us an extraordinary opportunity to communicate to the American people who he is and what he wants to do to the country. We need to seize this opportunity, together, in the coming days.
Enjoy my presentation and while the Holidays are here we have work to do. Please share this post and video to those you think would benefit from learning more about our big opportunity right now and what comes next.
More On The 2024 Election and What Comes Next - For a comprehensive look at 2024 and what comes next see these four new talks with leading state Democratic Party chairs: (each video interview comes with a transcript for those who would like to read rather than watch or listen):
On The Future Of The DNC and The Democratic Party - With Ken Martin, Minnesota Democratic Party Chair and A Leading Candidate For DNC Chair
On Winning In Wisconsin and the Future of the DNC and Democratic Party - With Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair and A Leading Candidate for DNC Chair
On Winning The Blue Dot And The Urgent Need To Invest in Democratic Party, Partisan Infrastructure - With Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair
On North Carolina’s Impressive Downballot Wins - With Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Democratic Party Chair
Other recent videos in our What Happened, What Comes Next series for your Holiday viewing and listening pleasure:
On Winning Arizona And Getting Latinos Back - With Senator-Elect Ruben Gallego
On Winning Virginia In 2025 - With Rep. Abigail Spanberger, The Democratic Nominee for Governor of Virginia | Learn more about Abigail | Volunteer | Donate To Her Campaign
On Trump’s Big Gains With Young People, Particularly Young Men - With John Della Volpe Of Harvard’s Institute Of Politics
On The Power of Networks - With Joe Trippi, Legendary Democratic Strategist and Campaign Manager, Founder Sez Us and Resolute Square
On Reinventing Government and The Perils of DOGE - With Dr. Elaine Kamarck Of Harvard and The Brookings Institution
You may also find these two segments from our fall Closing Strong collaboration with COURIER Newsroom and Tara McGowan helpful:
On The Need For Pro-Democracy Media - With COURIER’s Tara McGowan and Crooked Media’s Dan Pfeiffer
Beyond MAGA Creators - Russia’s influence on the Republican Party runs deep with Stewart Stevens and Jiore Craig
And here are my most important recent post-election analyses, both in words and video, if you haven’t gotten to them yet (and oldie but goodie too):
More Notes On Trump’s Unprecedented Ugliness And Becoming The Ferocious Opposition - includes early thinking about how the Hopium community evolves next year
For Dems It’s A Time For Re-imagination, Re-invention and Innovation (video too)
A Deep Dive on What Dems Do Now with Anthony Davis of MeidasTouch (please watch this!)
More Notes On What Happened And What Comes Next (video too)
“Getting Louder” - A conversation about building pro-democracy media with Ben Meiselas (MeidasTouch), Tara McGowan (COURIER Newsroom), Joe Trippi (Resolute Square) and David Rothkopf (DSR Network)
Give The Gift of Hopium This Holiday Season - I’ve set up a thread for paid subscribers to offer their thoughts on what this wonderful and plucky community should do next. I’m grateful for the many comments we’ve received so far. Weigh in if you can in the coming days, and note that an annual Hopium paid subscription is now 10% off through the end of the year for those who may want to sign up or give a bit of Hopium as a holiday gift!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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