Ugly Inflation Data, Tariffs Ruled Illegal (Again), Failed War, Soaring Unpopularity - Trump Heads To China In A Dangerously Weakened Position

Inflation came in much hotter than expected........

Morning all. We got the main inflation gauge this morning, the Consumer Price Index, and it came in hot, 0.6 for the month, much higher than expected. The Cleveland Fed nowcast had it coming in at 0.45. So it’s a third higher than expectations. Here are two charts to help us understand where we are now:

And a reminder of this data too:

Headlines across all media have been rough for the regime, deservedly so:

The main narrative coming from the White House about the economy is that “when the war ends” - whatever that means now - gas prices will come down and everything will be fine. But as these charts remind us the economy was not fine before the war began - Trump’s illegal, reckless tariffs had slowed job growth and reignited inflation. Now his failed and ridiculous war has caused inflation to spike, and not just energy costs - grocery prices went up 0.7 percent last month, an enormous monthly increase that is equivalent to more than an 8% increase annually. As economists keep reminding us - higher energy costs drive up the costs of other things that depend on energy, like food (transportation, fertilizer). So higher energy costs can have a multiplier effect throughout the economy, as we are beginning to see in this data.

If he were smart Trump would call off his summit with Xi later this week. He is heading to China in a dramatically weakened position - his war is failing, his tariffs were just declared to be illegal (again), he economic plan here in the US isn’t working, in fighting with Europe and cutting research here he looks like a fool, and he is profoundly unpopular. Look at the polling data we’ve gotten in the last 24 hours:

In the CNN poll 70% now disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and people understand it is both the war and the tariffs that are hurting them and their families:

Democrats have started opening up leads on the issues that matter. These are brutal numbers for the party in power:

In The Economist/YouGov poll Democrats are much, much motivated to vote than the Rs right now, findings consistent with other polls and our strong electoral performance this cycle:

As the Chinese develop their final strategy for the summit they are also seeing moments like this one yesterday, where Trump clearly fell asleep again while hosting a live event with very bright lights and lots of people:

Imagine what Xi can say to Trump….Donald you war isn’t going well, is it? Nor your economy, and man that inflation number! Well done brother……Those tariffs you keep levying against us. Illegal again! Time to end them Donald…..been wondering do you have lawyers ready to defend you from the subpoenas that will be flying when Democrats take back the House in November? Sure hope so. By the way those cuts to science and research - so smart, strategic, keep it up my man…You look a little sleepy old man, can I get you some tea or coffee? And hey, can I come see the East Wing when I come visit this fall? Oh, it’s a hole in the ground? What’s up with that Donald??????????????????????

Trump heading to China this week in this weakened state is a danger to our national security. May we hope for something to good to come from it all rather than Trump once again getting his lunch eaten by a foreign leader……

Haven’t forgotten about the GOP’s escalating assault on our democracy. More on that tomorrow…..

Now, Let’s Get To Work, People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Rallying For Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin For Georgia Supreme Court - This is our next big opportunity to make good trouble all. The Election is May 19th, early voting has begun, and we have 2 great candidates, Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who have a serious shot at flipping two GOP-held Supreme Court seats. Watch our new interview with Jordan and Rankin, donate to their campaign, and volunteer no matter where you are! We’ve now raised $42,900 towards our $50,000 goal!

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Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win, together - Simon