Will The Pause Continue? It's Up to Hamas. Polling in Israel and the US, Holodomor Memorial Day

NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton Joins Us Tuesday at 7pm EST

Friends, a few things for you on this Sunday:

Will The Pause Continue Past Monday? Israel has committed to an additional day of pause for every ten hostages released. After these inital 52 Israeli and approximate 20 hostages of other nationalities are released, 170 or so remain so if Hamas wants weeks of a cease fire and humanitarian aid it is available to them. As the process has been to share the names of the hostages to be released the night before, we will know whether Hamas wants to keep the cease fire in place - and the people of Gaza safe - as early as tomorrow afternoon.

One big question lingers over this next phase - how many of the missing and presumed to be in Gaza can Hamas release? How many are dead, or may be able to tell stories that will shock the world and thus hard for Hamas to release? Every day Hamas holds even a single hostage it is committing a war crime, and creates international justification for Israeli retaliation. While I remain optimistic about what comes next, I also worry that Hamas would much rather have the images of dead Gazans than rejoicing Israelis on the screens of the world, and may choose war over cease fire. But we will see, soon.

Here are photos of the hostages being released today, which includes the 4 year old American, Abigail Edan, in the upper left, whose parents were killed by Hamas on October 7th:

And again, congratulations to the Biden team for helping Israel and region get to this encouraging point of a cease fire, of hostages coming home and humanitarian aid flowing.

Some Insights From New Polling - three things to share today:

• Israel - Another poll in Israel finds Bibi’s governing coalition collapsing, and Gantz beating him head to head, 52%-27%. From The Times of Israel article: “According to the survey, parties in the current government, which together won 64 seats in November 2022, would crash to just 41 seats out of 120 if elections were to be held today, while parties in the “change” alliance combined with the Arab Hadash-Taal would soar to 79. Benny Gantz’s National Unity party has continued to rise in popularity and would secure 43 seats compared to the 12 it currently holds. In comparison, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would win just 18 seats, compared to the 32 it won in November 2022.” Bibi is a failed and disgraced leader, and for the good of Israel and the region needs to go as soon as possible.

• Biden - This week’s Economist/YouGov poll (question 36) finds Biden once again getting high marks from young people and Democrats on his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. 18-29 year olds approve of his handling of the conflict 37%-31% (higher than any other age bracket), Democrats 63%-18%. I know there are a lot of polls flying around now but be mindful of the question asked. It is possible to support a ceasefire, disapprove of Israel’s conduct and still be supportive of the constructive role Biden has played to get us to this point of pause, hostage release and restoration of humanitarian aid. It’s why to me the most important of these questions for domestic US politics is the approval of Biden’s handling of the conflict, which remains in deeply positive territory among Democrats, despite the media narrative; and remember we are in the very early days of the conflict, and much will change.

• Trump - I want to echo a point Joe Trippi has been making - Trump is weaker than is understood right now. In the Republican primary he is hovering around 60%, meaning 40% of Republicans still don’t support him (Biden is in the upper 70s and has no real primary challenger). He is now under 50% in the three early states of IA, NH, SC, meaning that a majority of the Republicans in the states seeing the most political activity are not currently backing him. This level of ongoing opposition to Trump is a significant matter, and something not happening on the Democratic side. As I’ve been saying for some time, the splintering of the GOP over the past few years due to opposition to Trump/MAGA, and now abortion extremism, is a very big story in our politics, and a central reason I remain so optimistic about 2024.

Tues, Nov 28th, 7pm ET - NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton Joins The Hopium Community - Come meet the dynamic new chair of the most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Register here, and learn more about Chair Clayton here. Excited for this one! Video of our discussion will be posted on the site for those who can’t make it live.

The First Russian Genocide in Ukraine - An image and post from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence:

Holodomor Memorial Day is a terrible reminder that Russia for centuries have been turning food into weapon.

90 years ago, the Stalin's regime has committed an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people. Between 1932 and 1933, millions of our people died of a man-made famine. The memory of those innocent victims lives on in our hearts.

Today, Russia continues the Stalinist tradition. They are destroying our granaries, elevators, and ports and attacking ships with food in the Black Sea.

Thanks to the bravery of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, we are squeezing the Russian fleet from the Black Sea. Thanks to the help of partners, our air defense units are covering the infrastructure where the grain corridor begins. We are doing everything so that the horrors of the Holodomors, which Ukrainians experienced, do not affect anyone on earth.

Keep working hard all. There is so much on the line now, and we just have to win - Simon