Agree with SR on the JB vs DT comparison. Who would you rather have in charge of the red Nuke button? A wise experienced leader or a deranged egomaniac who takes his advice from Putin?
One thing that Biden could do is to continue to pressure Netanyahu not to do anything that would cause the death and suffering of innocent Palestinians.
Biden is our guy - sticking with him all the way, through thick and thin! He’s earned it!
Robert Hur can try and tip the scales but we won’t let him. I think this has rallied Democrats more than scared them, and that’s a big change. Biden all the way!!!
Mixing up names is such a common mistake that we can all think of times we have done it in the last week. My guess is that considerably fewer of us can recall the last time we misidentified a picture of a woman whom we once sexually assaulted as a different woman to whom we were married for years, and with whom we had an extremely high-profile and acrimonious divorce.
I watched PBS’s Washington Week last night and one of the guests made a valid point.
He said the real takeaway from Biden’s documents issue should be how he handled the discovery of having government documents in his home vs how Trump handled it.
When the documents were discovered in Biden’s home the Library of Congress was notified immediately and Biden fully cooperated with the investigation.
When it became known that Trump had documents in his home he lied about it, then directed staff to move the documents, then lied about it again.
That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the character of these two men.
About the Biden Mexico/Egypt gaffe: I have heard nearly every newsperson make similar errors, ranging from ones I like (Maddow or Hayes on MSNBC) to ones I don't (E.g., Hannity on Fox). They do this all the time, and they are much younger. It doesn't mean anything. But I have seen Biden respond on the fly to unanticipated events (heckler on the left yelling at him when I attended a talk here in Phoenix, MJT at the SOTU), and he was very sharp. I'm not worried about his clarity of mind.
Poet and memoirist Kwame Alexander was on PBS last night, discussing his new anthology of Black poetry, and they referenced an op-ed he wrote in the LA Times for MLK Day last month about Dr. King’s legacy. The last part of his article moved and encouraged me, so I thought with everything going on these days, and the work we have to do, I’d pass it on:
"In the war room of our red, white and weary blues,
we become pioneers in this renewal by awakening our conscience,
summoning our courage,
then treading the stony road through a tunnel of hope."
It’s a lyrical way of saying what Simon’s been saying the whole time, so let’s keep up the “good struggle”!
Simon, I am wondering what your thoughts are about the anonymous Dem sources questioning the wisdom of Biden as the nominee as well as Axelrod and Carville.
To be honest, as someone who takes action every day to further Biden’s and Democratic candidates, I find it disheartening. Is this real or is this media hype that has become common place?
What I see on social media was a push to make yesterday a big small dollar donor fundraising day to show support. It was both urged and organic. I saw a lot of anger at the Hur report.
I am just interested in the behind tge scenes. Grassroots are working hard.
I, myself, have no inside perspective on folks like Axelrod and Carville. But I think it's worth remembering that those folks-- for all their merits-- have egos and blind spots just like any of the rest of us. Have they been sidelined or boxed-out from a high-level campaign role, and/or are former rivals/frenemies now serving in roles that they once held? Are they finding that a skeptical and/or antagonistic stance is granting them relevance that had previously been denied them? Do they have an interest in being recognized as all-time Team Blue masterminds whose historic glories shall never be eclipsed by the current generation of campaign honchos? Are they (understandably) accustomed to the tenor of candidate/campaign that they shepherded to victory in the past and unable to recognize any feasible alternative? It's at least *possible* that various combinations of the above might lead those folks-- subconsciously or no-- to voice certain skepticisms.
In any event, to the extent that their general message is that Joe Biden (circa '24) is not a perfect candidate, they're correct, as far as that goes. That's not news. But he's a damn sight better candidate (and human) than the orange guy, and if we all do the hard work in front of us, he absolutely can beat that orange guy for the second time in 4 years. So let's do the work!
Fantastic response Patrick! This situation we all find ourselves is novel. I am so Riden with Biden & Simon. They are constantly proving they can navigate these troubled waters! Thanks for such a great comment!
None of these anonymous sources have any insights into how Biden has raised more money at this point in the election cycle than Obama did when he was preparing to run for his second term. It doesn’t fit their narrative so they’re not too interested in trying to explain it. I will never forget listening to Pod Save America after the first two Democratic primaries in 2020 and Iowa and New Hampshire and hearing the hosts basically pronouncing an end to Biden’s political career. Strategists were out of touch with the electorate then and they haven’t learned much since.
I think all of the Obama greats like Axelrod, Pod Save America, etc peaked a long time ago and can’t accept it. They don’t get it, and they don’t get why they don’t get it.
Patrick, well said. That's my plan certainly - keep on keeping on. Tom Nichols from the Atlantic wrote a column a long time ago about the power of incumbency and how it would be insane to give that up - even with Biden's age given who the opposition would be. I think that you are right about the outside voices. I just do not find them 'helpful' to say the least.
Theressa, I intended to write my response to you re: James Carville below but I responded to Patrick instead. My error but since it seems to fit both your concerns I just left it as is. I agree with you completely, “frustrating and not helpful at all.” Even though I’ve respected both those gentlemen for years, I wish they could keep this to themselves.
Professor Carville is a great guy; he’s just really worried and speaking out his concern. It comes from a good place bc he’s worried about our democracy. Before Hopium Chronicles he was my political guru and I followed him for years, always taking his direction who and when to donate. I don’t follow now bc , I need more faith and confidence in forward motion like Hopium offers. It’s a difference of opinion. I still respect and love the guy but I can’t join him on his worry train. I just can’t. TG for the respite and work offered by our HC leader and community!!!!!!!
Itene, I hear you about the worry train. I can’t do it either. In addition to HC, I listen to Joe Trippi as well and read Robert Hubbell. I have to believe in the sanity and decency of the majority of the American people. It doesn’t change my actions. I give all the time and resources I can to move the needle. The worry train depletes my energy. Happy to be in this with this community!
Theressa, sounds like we’re on same page here. Appreciate the actions you’re taking. A lot of people don’t understand how I can be so upbeat about Biden. I’m informed I tell them. I know all the great things he’s done, the good heart he has. He wasn’t my first choice bc I wanted a female president but I’m amazed about how great he’s doing. And I know all the rotten stuff I need to know about the other guy.
Such a delight not to be drug into a negative swirl pool anymore. When that happened last week I just started read old writings of Simon’s on NDM site and early HC articles. It got me out of a reactive state; surprised I could still be pulled in but I was pretty upset about GOP not supporting Ukraine and seeming to gift it to Putin from Trump. It’s a pleasure to meet so many sane and decent people here on HC.
"Have they been sidelined or boxed-out from a high-level campaign role...
I think it was Rick Wilson who advanced the theory that Nancy Jacobson founded No Labels as a way of getting back at the Democrats for firing her husband Mark Penn who was a strategist in Hilary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.
Both of them have been down on Biden for awhile. Add Jonathan Alter to that list. They are looking at older metrics that worked in past campaigns and see trouble. I'm just not sure they work anymore. trump is so vile, it's hard to imagine he will grow his base much. The concern is Dems and indies not showing up. I think Dems will show up. Not sure about indies. But if actual republicans who hate trump are saying they will vote for Biden, I have a hard time believing indies won't.
A lot of young people register as independents because they don't want to be "boxed in" by a label. I think a lot of the older independents are either not really engaged in politics OR disaffected Republicans who feel like their party abandoned them. Just like we say "Hispanic voters are not a monolith", IMO Independent voters aren't either.
I think Simon is absolutely right and that something broke in the GOP with the Dobbs decision. It behooves us as information warriors to make sure that young people understand that if the GOP wins in 2024 that (1) the GOP will push for a total abortion ban, (2) there will be no restriction on semi-automatic weapons or other sensible gun reform and gun violence will increase, and (3) any positive action made to stem climate change during Biden's tenure will be reversed.
We also need to remind people that a vote for anyone but Biden is a vote for Trump in our wacky Electoral College system.
It may be a choice between two old white guys for President, but their perspectives, personalities, skills and goals couldn't be more different.
You know, I was listening to Bloomberg on my way home from my morning walk ( is it still winter? ) and they had some tool on saying that markets are good because they are bullish on a 2nd trump term which will keep the obscene tax cuts in place and stabilize the international scene ( i.e. give Putin a free hand ). No mention of his being a rapist or fraudster. It was all very banal. This seemed to be the view at Davos as well. These people must be sociopaths......it looks like I'm going to have to find a way to get deeper into the fight this cycle, with the Hur decision and the attitudes on Wall St plus the NYT.....I have to figure out what that might be.
Geez! I have always heard that what Wall Street hates most is uncertainty. Joe Biden may be boring but he's also steady as it goes. The last thing we need is a vengeful and erratic leader at the helm. And they are nuts if they think Trump will stabilize the international front. The EU is no doubt traumitized by the thought of another Trump term. (As I admit am I!) It is only the autocratic regimes that are licking their chops at the thought of having an incompetent buffoon in the White House.
And FYI, unless you own a business that caters exclusively to uber-rich people like luxury yacht building, companies should be excited about having a healthier middle class. IIRC, the corporate tax cuts were permanent and it is only the individual tax cuts that expire next year.
I have some thoughts. Those anonymous dem sources are wrong. The weak incumbent idea-although I think it is based on a really flawed understanding of what presidential approval ratings actually tell us these days (which is that people are cynical about politicians)-might have some merit were Biden not going up against a weaker incumbent, who was so weak he lost his reelection bid and has done nothing to win back any of the voters he lost. Basically, their advice is to switch horses in the middle of the race. That has always been a terrible strategy. We have the candidate who received the most votes of any presidential candidate in American history, and who has already beaten the man whom he is running against. Who else would be running anyway? Bernie Sanders? Some currently unknown candidate who has nothing to do with the economic boom that we’re currently experiencing and can therefore take no credit for it? I can’t even remember the name of the last candidate that James Carville backed, but I do remember that that campaign was a flop.
I like listening to Carville, he's a great character. But he is just about the same age as Biden. What makes him so confident his own judgement is any better? We all decline some, I'm 61 and Covid really kicked my ass; left me with some issues cognitively. But when I do interviews for consulting work I have not forgotten state laws and procedures on special ed and my clients are always amazed; it's because I have 30 years on them....nothing I haven't seen.
You’ll get no argument from me. Carville is a legend and hilarious. But in 2020 he was 100% convinced that Michael Bennett (?) was the only one who could beat Donald Trump and the presidential election.
Carville and Axe both see the world from the perspective of :30 spots - because that’s what they both did for Clinton and Obama. Those days are gone - you don’t win anymore that way (you can’t control a narrative through tv spots). . So, they are using skills and and analysis developed for different time. And, they also believe that approval ratings, public views of the economy and certain polls are determinative even though they are not anymore. It’s understandable, they were both highly successful and so have a hard time questioning prior assumptions (and were never really data people). I still listen to the Axe files and am amazed how Axe and MIke Murphy - even after being 100% wrong about the red wave and the idea that the economy trumps all (and that candidates can’t win on Dobbs and Democracy) - continue to double down and say the same thing again for 2024. I think they are worth listening to but with a grain of salt. Unfortunately, except for Pfeiffer, I think the Pod Save America guys also suffer from some of the same problems (they are Obama WH speechwriters and only see the world from that frame). The only other older veteran I trust these days is Plouffe (because he believes in Data not gut). Simon is amazing in that he is an old dog learning new tricks (that is not common).
It was maybe the Tuesday episode of Pod Save they said something really reveling. They have been trying to obliquely critique the Simon analysis for a few weeks. And basically Tommy said that even if it is correct (that the polls suck and are picking up on the wrong info) it is better to have the dem base scared so they turn out.
I was astounded when he said it. That with their stated goal of boosting downballot turn out with their Vote Save America shows that they think their audience is turning on Joe Biden.
Edit: I also pressed Dan on his substack why they have been tamping down good news on the Pod and he emphasized not pushing false hope.
$8m on hand in the Republican coffers? Hmm, exactly the amount received by Trump from China et al. But he wouldn’t donate it to the campaign. He expects campaign funds to pay his own personal bills.
Picture opening your inbox and finding 38,000 messages of encouragement, appreciation, admiration, and motivation. 38,000 messages of support, long, short, nuanced or blunt.
Today I will be writing a message of support to Joe Biden c/o The White House. I will be expressing my appreciation and admiration for the dogged and heroic work he does every day to make life better for Americans and to defend democratic values around the world.
Joe Biden is putting everything on the line for the values we cherish. At a time of life when most human beings are taking it easy, enjoying retirement, spending their Golden Years with family, friends and doing pretty much what they want to do, Joe Biden is shouldering the burdens and extraordinary pressures of what is arguably the most difficult and most consequential job in the world.
I hope you will join me today in sending a message of support to Joe Biden. Let’s let him know we have his back. Let’s give him that energy to recharge, renew and to go on offense from now to November. Let’s fill Joe’s inbox with 38,00 messages of hope with a plan!
Went door knocking for Suozzi today. The campaign office was abuzz with volunteers! Union members. Young Dems and my group with Common Power. Had many good conversations. Suozzi showed up at the end and gave a great speech.
I was on the weather boards and there is some uncertainty about this snowstorm, which should favor areas away from the water and NYC ( NY 3 is coastal and LI Sound ) but there is real potential for a surprise and they were discussing the possible effects of snow; the southern part of the district is more R and the northern more Dem, but it is not unusual for the northern part to get more snow than the southern part, and the feeling was that political scientists will be studying this one if that happens. We don't get too far off the rails over there, most believe in climate change and are scientists so a lot of the Rs have left, but it is being actively discussed.
So far it's looking good for Suozzi. Saw a post from Tom Bonier on Twitter with results I think from Thursday. Very promising. Keeping the faith he will succeed and pretty amazing we raised over $100,000 for his campaign. Proud to of been able to contribute a small amount. Every bit counts.
Listened to your conversation with Jessica Denson on her podcast Lights On tonight while making dinner. Very good interview.
I don’t know specifically with Axelrod, but I have the sense that some members of the consultant class don’t like Biden because he doesn’t listen to them, and they think they’re smarter than he is. To them, Biden is a workhorse politician who was never supposed to rise to the top. First president since Reagan with no Ivy League credential. A throwback to a more egalitarian America. A fluke.
Whenever I hear Ivy League I just think of some of the SCOTUS members, and analysts say the smartest one is actually Barrett, who went to Notre Dame ( when I was young a solid student had no problem getting in there, or NYU, or Fordham or any of a number of these kinds of schools ) and I always note how a Doctor from Harvard wanted to laser my face to clear up a rash, so I went to a guy who grew up in the Bronx ( he did go to Williams undergrad I later learned ) and went to NY Medical, and he gave me tetracycline and it cleared up in a week. And he couldn't believe someone wanted to use laser on that. And of course JD Vance....
I don’t think Axelrod was running down JB but was just expressing his thoughts about JB running again and if he was the best candidate to beat Trump. I heard his comments and he sounded very sincere and was not hostile in anyway. Actually I think there are many leading democrats who feel the same way but are too afraid to speak out for fear of alienating the party establishment and threatening their career. When JB heard what Axelrod said he called him a dick. I’m sure I’m naive about how Washington works but it’s disturbing to me knowing that what I hear from party elites may be completely different from how they really feel. What really concerns me is if party loyalty and self preservation take precedent over doing everything possible to beat Trump. If things become so obvious and yet no one is willing to speak up, I fear we could be heading towards a political disaster in November.
MSM, SubStack, and anyone any where: when you discuss what Trump says, quote it verbatim. Do not smooth it out, clean it up, make corrections. Show what he actually says in all its word salad disconnected bizarreness. Let us all see and hear him for who/what he really is.
Of course I still have My Old Thing. It will apparently never go out of style:
For ever I have been screaming at the MSM to do their job and inform the public. This report from Hur is yet another episode of sensationalizing something that really doesn’t merit it. Where is the balance? Where is the discussion that Ben Hur is not qualified to comment on someone’s memory. And that the bottom line is that Biden acted responsibly and cooperated completely. There were no charges brought. Period end of story.
Some happ(ier) thoughts per Hursmeargate. Looking at this morning’s coverage, I think it’s already turning into a positive for us (which I’m amazed by, thought it would take months).
1. It’s forcing a deeper examination by top pollitical journos of Biden’s “memory” and “cognitive” problems which don’t really exist and will actually serve to counter this “Biden is senile” narrative. Trump and MAGA have gotten away with calling out Biden’s gaffes because they played to a surface level assumption “Biden is too old, he’s 81, he’s feeble.” But, now the charges have been formalized and the WashPo and (even) the NYT have to investigate assumptions. Hur has actually created a higher bar - for elite journos - about these charges. Joe Biden is not 50 anymore but the guy is not anywhere close what Hur alleged. So, it will actually make it harder for the Trump campaign (in terms of pushing this with the elite press).
2. Most importantly, it forces journalists (because of reflexive both sideism) to now also seriously cover Trump’s decline and there is a there, there. Haley had made some headway on this point but the media has largely given Trump a pass (because papers like the NYT respond to the right). Now, because they will want to/are eager to formerly examine the issue for Biden, they will have to - because they can’t stop doing both sideism - formerly examine Trump’s age issues and that is very bad for the Trump campaign and will give the Biden campaign stories to use in their narrative.
3. It called the bluff of many Biden haters, replacers. The columns are now being written (check out the NYT), that Biden has to go and the Dems need to replace him because he’s feeble. Biden is not feeble and he is not being replaced. In fact, Biden is fully in charge of his faculties and the party. So, the Bluff is called and - although I am sure will be tried again - will be weaker and weaker.
4. It sets us up for the debates in a beautiful way. Trump will now be evaluated on whether he makes sense in comparison as to whether Biden makes sense (for the post debate peformance review media frenzy) and that is very good for us as the expectations will be that Biden does not and Trump does and the debates - if team Biden is prepared - will show the opposite.
5. Team Biden has been now forced to move on age. Biden - I think for understandable reasons - seemed to not be allowing his team to move on the age issue (because he doesn’t think he’s got a problem) but now this has happened and they are activated. It’s a good thing.
6. The Trump campaign just played one of their “Trump” cards in February . They can’t do this again and took their shot way too early in a way that is going to hugely backfire. Yes, I know Hur had to file now but the campaign clearly drove this and could have decided to use another vehicle later on in the cycle. As Simon has written, they are desperate and so did this way too early. If this had come in October, it could have been fatal but in February, bring it on, baby. :)
I deeply appreciate these doses of hopium. I suffer from an anxiety disorder that began long before MAGA, long before the Tea Party even, but which is sometimes so exacerbated by worry about the election that I can find it competely overwhelming. I know that millions of us are anxious, and that's unavoidable. But it's a matter of degree. I do my best to try to keep the worrying in check and spend more energy on the doing. I sent 30 postcards for Suozzi. I've called my PA senators and House rep to thank them for recent votes and stands they've taken. I played around on Canva creating a bumper sticker design for Biden '24 that features the words: "democracy, sanity, jobs, environment, reporoductive rights." I have donated what I can afford. So I'm taking actions -- doing the things I have control over, the things involving my time, energy, and intention. And I'm trying my best to accept the reality we all face, that we can't control Life or the unfolding of the world. We can be rationally optimistic while working our butts off, though. This blog helps me do that.
I find writing postcards very soothing for when my brain gets stuck on the hamster wheel. So I like to always have some addresses on hand. Yesterday morning my power went out before I had a chance to eat breakfast. So I found my list of voters and started writing postcards in the light of my Coleman lantern.
Since you mentioned PA, I wanted to make sure you were aware of a new postcard campaign from Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) to PA voters who vote by mail. Apparently, if you aren't paying attention when you fill out the application you might only get a ballot for the primary - not all 2024 elections.
The postcards have a short script and are "mail as you go" but no later than Apr 6.
thanks for letting me know about that. I've been doing lots of activist work to get more people to VBM in PA. I know exactly the hangup you're talking about. You have to check a box requesting that you get all your 2024 ballots by mail. otherwise, you just get one election at a time. I'll check into it! OK, I'm editing this 2 min later. I've signed up to do 30 postcards for VBM in PA!
Agree with SR on the JB vs DT comparison. Who would you rather have in charge of the red Nuke button? A wise experienced leader or a deranged egomaniac who takes his advice from Putin?
One thing that Biden could do is to continue to pressure Netanyahu not to do anything that would cause the death and suffering of innocent Palestinians.
Biden is our guy - sticking with him all the way, through thick and thin! He’s earned it!
Robert Hur can try and tip the scales but we won’t let him. I think this has rallied Democrats more than scared them, and that’s a big change. Biden all the way!!!
Mixing up names is such a common mistake that we can all think of times we have done it in the last week. My guess is that considerably fewer of us can recall the last time we misidentified a picture of a woman whom we once sexually assaulted as a different woman to whom we were married for years, and with whom we had an extremely high-profile and acrimonious divorce.
Thank you, thank you Thank you Brad! 🙏🏻
That describes for me exactly the wonderful spirit of our Hopium Community
Less scared, more work- Biden ALL the way!
I watched PBS’s Washington Week last night and one of the guests made a valid point.
He said the real takeaway from Biden’s documents issue should be how he handled the discovery of having government documents in his home vs how Trump handled it.
When the documents were discovered in Biden’s home the Library of Congress was notified immediately and Biden fully cooperated with the investigation.
When it became known that Trump had documents in his home he lied about it, then directed staff to move the documents, then lied about it again.
That pretty much tells you all you need to know about the character of these two men.
I agree - that is a very good point.
About the Biden Mexico/Egypt gaffe: I have heard nearly every newsperson make similar errors, ranging from ones I like (Maddow or Hayes on MSNBC) to ones I don't (E.g., Hannity on Fox). They do this all the time, and they are much younger. It doesn't mean anything. But I have seen Biden respond on the fly to unanticipated events (heckler on the left yelling at him when I attended a talk here in Phoenix, MJT at the SOTU), and he was very sharp. I'm not worried about his clarity of mind.
Poet and memoirist Kwame Alexander was on PBS last night, discussing his new anthology of Black poetry, and they referenced an op-ed he wrote in the LA Times for MLK Day last month about Dr. King’s legacy. The last part of his article moved and encouraged me, so I thought with everything going on these days, and the work we have to do, I’d pass it on:
"In the war room of our red, white and weary blues,
we become pioneers in this renewal by awakening our conscience,
summoning our courage,
then treading the stony road through a tunnel of hope."
It’s a lyrical way of saying what Simon’s been saying the whole time, so let’s keep up the “good struggle”!
That is beautiful, such a lovely comparison. Thanks for sharing this
😭 just loved it!!!!
Caught my heart-thank you🙏🏻
Simon, I am wondering what your thoughts are about the anonymous Dem sources questioning the wisdom of Biden as the nominee as well as Axelrod and Carville.
To be honest, as someone who takes action every day to further Biden’s and Democratic candidates, I find it disheartening. Is this real or is this media hype that has become common place?
What I see on social media was a push to make yesterday a big small dollar donor fundraising day to show support. It was both urged and organic. I saw a lot of anger at the Hur report.
I am just interested in the behind tge scenes. Grassroots are working hard.
Exciting to hear all the work for Suozzi!
I, myself, have no inside perspective on folks like Axelrod and Carville. But I think it's worth remembering that those folks-- for all their merits-- have egos and blind spots just like any of the rest of us. Have they been sidelined or boxed-out from a high-level campaign role, and/or are former rivals/frenemies now serving in roles that they once held? Are they finding that a skeptical and/or antagonistic stance is granting them relevance that had previously been denied them? Do they have an interest in being recognized as all-time Team Blue masterminds whose historic glories shall never be eclipsed by the current generation of campaign honchos? Are they (understandably) accustomed to the tenor of candidate/campaign that they shepherded to victory in the past and unable to recognize any feasible alternative? It's at least *possible* that various combinations of the above might lead those folks-- subconsciously or no-- to voice certain skepticisms.
In any event, to the extent that their general message is that Joe Biden (circa '24) is not a perfect candidate, they're correct, as far as that goes. That's not news. But he's a damn sight better candidate (and human) than the orange guy, and if we all do the hard work in front of us, he absolutely can beat that orange guy for the second time in 4 years. So let's do the work!
It seems to me the never-trumpers like Rick Wilson are more optimistic about Biden then some of the Dem veterans.
Agreed. I have heard him get really angry about this very issue and the 'circular firing squad' so to speak - too much at stake.
Fantastic response Patrick! This situation we all find ourselves is novel. I am so Riden with Biden & Simon. They are constantly proving they can navigate these troubled waters! Thanks for such a great comment!
None of these anonymous sources have any insights into how Biden has raised more money at this point in the election cycle than Obama did when he was preparing to run for his second term. It doesn’t fit their narrative so they’re not too interested in trying to explain it. I will never forget listening to Pod Save America after the first two Democratic primaries in 2020 and Iowa and New Hampshire and hearing the hosts basically pronouncing an end to Biden’s political career. Strategists were out of touch with the electorate then and they haven’t learned much since.
I think all of the Obama greats like Axelrod, Pod Save America, etc peaked a long time ago and can’t accept it. They don’t get it, and they don’t get why they don’t get it.
Patrick, well said. That's my plan certainly - keep on keeping on. Tom Nichols from the Atlantic wrote a column a long time ago about the power of incumbency and how it would be insane to give that up - even with Biden's age given who the opposition would be. I think that you are right about the outside voices. I just do not find them 'helpful' to say the least.
Theressa, I intended to write my response to you re: James Carville below but I responded to Patrick instead. My error but since it seems to fit both your concerns I just left it as is. I agree with you completely, “frustrating and not helpful at all.” Even though I’ve respected both those gentlemen for years, I wish they could keep this to themselves.
Professor Carville is a great guy; he’s just really worried and speaking out his concern. It comes from a good place bc he’s worried about our democracy. Before Hopium Chronicles he was my political guru and I followed him for years, always taking his direction who and when to donate. I don’t follow now bc , I need more faith and confidence in forward motion like Hopium offers. It’s a difference of opinion. I still respect and love the guy but I can’t join him on his worry train. I just can’t. TG for the respite and work offered by our HC leader and community!!!!!!!
Itene, I hear you about the worry train. I can’t do it either. In addition to HC, I listen to Joe Trippi as well and read Robert Hubbell. I have to believe in the sanity and decency of the majority of the American people. It doesn’t change my actions. I give all the time and resources I can to move the needle. The worry train depletes my energy. Happy to be in this with this community!
Theressa, sounds like we’re on same page here. Appreciate the actions you’re taking. A lot of people don’t understand how I can be so upbeat about Biden. I’m informed I tell them. I know all the great things he’s done, the good heart he has. He wasn’t my first choice bc I wanted a female president but I’m amazed about how great he’s doing. And I know all the rotten stuff I need to know about the other guy.
Such a delight not to be drug into a negative swirl pool anymore. When that happened last week I just started read old writings of Simon’s on NDM site and early HC articles. It got me out of a reactive state; surprised I could still be pulled in but I was pretty upset about GOP not supporting Ukraine and seeming to gift it to Putin from Trump. It’s a pleasure to meet so many sane and decent people here on HC.
Glad you’re here too.
"Have they been sidelined or boxed-out from a high-level campaign role...
I think it was Rick Wilson who advanced the theory that Nancy Jacobson founded No Labels as a way of getting back at the Democrats for firing her husband Mark Penn who was a strategist in Hilary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Penn
Both of them have been down on Biden for awhile. Add Jonathan Alter to that list. They are looking at older metrics that worked in past campaigns and see trouble. I'm just not sure they work anymore. trump is so vile, it's hard to imagine he will grow his base much. The concern is Dems and indies not showing up. I think Dems will show up. Not sure about indies. But if actual republicans who hate trump are saying they will vote for Biden, I have a hard time believing indies won't.
A lot of young people register as independents because they don't want to be "boxed in" by a label. I think a lot of the older independents are either not really engaged in politics OR disaffected Republicans who feel like their party abandoned them. Just like we say "Hispanic voters are not a monolith", IMO Independent voters aren't either.
I think Simon is absolutely right and that something broke in the GOP with the Dobbs decision. It behooves us as information warriors to make sure that young people understand that if the GOP wins in 2024 that (1) the GOP will push for a total abortion ban, (2) there will be no restriction on semi-automatic weapons or other sensible gun reform and gun violence will increase, and (3) any positive action made to stem climate change during Biden's tenure will be reversed.
We also need to remind people that a vote for anyone but Biden is a vote for Trump in our wacky Electoral College system.
It may be a choice between two old white guys for President, but their perspectives, personalities, skills and goals couldn't be more different.
You know, I was listening to Bloomberg on my way home from my morning walk ( is it still winter? ) and they had some tool on saying that markets are good because they are bullish on a 2nd trump term which will keep the obscene tax cuts in place and stabilize the international scene ( i.e. give Putin a free hand ). No mention of his being a rapist or fraudster. It was all very banal. This seemed to be the view at Davos as well. These people must be sociopaths......it looks like I'm going to have to find a way to get deeper into the fight this cycle, with the Hur decision and the attitudes on Wall St plus the NYT.....I have to figure out what that might be.
Geez! I have always heard that what Wall Street hates most is uncertainty. Joe Biden may be boring but he's also steady as it goes. The last thing we need is a vengeful and erratic leader at the helm. And they are nuts if they think Trump will stabilize the international front. The EU is no doubt traumitized by the thought of another Trump term. (As I admit am I!) It is only the autocratic regimes that are licking their chops at the thought of having an incompetent buffoon in the White House.
And FYI, unless you own a business that caters exclusively to uber-rich people like luxury yacht building, companies should be excited about having a healthier middle class. IIRC, the corporate tax cuts were permanent and it is only the individual tax cuts that expire next year.
I have some thoughts. Those anonymous dem sources are wrong. The weak incumbent idea-although I think it is based on a really flawed understanding of what presidential approval ratings actually tell us these days (which is that people are cynical about politicians)-might have some merit were Biden not going up against a weaker incumbent, who was so weak he lost his reelection bid and has done nothing to win back any of the voters he lost. Basically, their advice is to switch horses in the middle of the race. That has always been a terrible strategy. We have the candidate who received the most votes of any presidential candidate in American history, and who has already beaten the man whom he is running against. Who else would be running anyway? Bernie Sanders? Some currently unknown candidate who has nothing to do with the economic boom that we’re currently experiencing and can therefore take no credit for it? I can’t even remember the name of the last candidate that James Carville backed, but I do remember that that campaign was a flop.
I like listening to Carville, he's a great character. But he is just about the same age as Biden. What makes him so confident his own judgement is any better? We all decline some, I'm 61 and Covid really kicked my ass; left me with some issues cognitively. But when I do interviews for consulting work I have not forgotten state laws and procedures on special ed and my clients are always amazed; it's because I have 30 years on them....nothing I haven't seen.
You’ll get no argument from me. Carville is a legend and hilarious. But in 2020 he was 100% convinced that Michael Bennett (?) was the only one who could beat Donald Trump and the presidential election.
Carville and Axe both see the world from the perspective of :30 spots - because that’s what they both did for Clinton and Obama. Those days are gone - you don’t win anymore that way (you can’t control a narrative through tv spots). . So, they are using skills and and analysis developed for different time. And, they also believe that approval ratings, public views of the economy and certain polls are determinative even though they are not anymore. It’s understandable, they were both highly successful and so have a hard time questioning prior assumptions (and were never really data people). I still listen to the Axe files and am amazed how Axe and MIke Murphy - even after being 100% wrong about the red wave and the idea that the economy trumps all (and that candidates can’t win on Dobbs and Democracy) - continue to double down and say the same thing again for 2024. I think they are worth listening to but with a grain of salt. Unfortunately, except for Pfeiffer, I think the Pod Save America guys also suffer from some of the same problems (they are Obama WH speechwriters and only see the world from that frame). The only other older veteran I trust these days is Plouffe (because he believes in Data not gut). Simon is amazing in that he is an old dog learning new tricks (that is not common).
It was maybe the Tuesday episode of Pod Save they said something really reveling. They have been trying to obliquely critique the Simon analysis for a few weeks. And basically Tommy said that even if it is correct (that the polls suck and are picking up on the wrong info) it is better to have the dem base scared so they turn out.
I was astounded when he said it. That with their stated goal of boosting downballot turn out with their Vote Save America shows that they think their audience is turning on Joe Biden.
Edit: I also pressed Dan on his substack why they have been tamping down good news on the Pod and he emphasized not pushing false hope.
$8m on hand in the Republican coffers? Hmm, exactly the amount received by Trump from China et al. But he wouldn’t donate it to the campaign. He expects campaign funds to pay his own personal bills.
Picture opening your inbox and finding 38,000 messages of encouragement, appreciation, admiration, and motivation. 38,000 messages of support, long, short, nuanced or blunt.
Today I will be writing a message of support to Joe Biden c/o The White House. I will be expressing my appreciation and admiration for the dogged and heroic work he does every day to make life better for Americans and to defend democratic values around the world.
Joe Biden is putting everything on the line for the values we cherish. At a time of life when most human beings are taking it easy, enjoying retirement, spending their Golden Years with family, friends and doing pretty much what they want to do, Joe Biden is shouldering the burdens and extraordinary pressures of what is arguably the most difficult and most consequential job in the world.
I hope you will join me today in sending a message of support to Joe Biden. Let’s let him know we have his back. Let’s give him that energy to recharge, renew and to go on offense from now to November. Let’s fill Joe’s inbox with 38,00 messages of hope with a plan!
🙌🏻🙌🏻🤩🙌🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Yup/will do; thanks for idea!
Went door knocking for Suozzi today. The campaign office was abuzz with volunteers! Union members. Young Dems and my group with Common Power. Had many good conversations. Suozzi showed up at the end and gave a great speech.
Awesome news! Thanks for sharing this Gabrielle and for what you and others are doing on the ground! Good work!!!! (-:
I was on the weather boards and there is some uncertainty about this snowstorm, which should favor areas away from the water and NYC ( NY 3 is coastal and LI Sound ) but there is real potential for a surprise and they were discussing the possible effects of snow; the southern part of the district is more R and the northern more Dem, but it is not unusual for the northern part to get more snow than the southern part, and the feeling was that political scientists will be studying this one if that happens. We don't get too far off the rails over there, most believe in climate change and are scientists so a lot of the Rs have left, but it is being actively discussed.
The Biden campaign just released an excellent message from Jill Biden about this week. I hope we can all find a way to help amplify it.
So far it's looking good for Suozzi. Saw a post from Tom Bonier on Twitter with results I think from Thursday. Very promising. Keeping the faith he will succeed and pretty amazing we raised over $100,000 for his campaign. Proud to of been able to contribute a small amount. Every bit counts.
Listened to your conversation with Jessica Denson on her podcast Lights On tonight while making dinner. Very good interview.
Onward to November.
I too am wondering why David Axelrod is so hell bent on running down Biden? Is there bad blood there?
I don’t know specifically with Axelrod, but I have the sense that some members of the consultant class don’t like Biden because he doesn’t listen to them, and they think they’re smarter than he is. To them, Biden is a workhorse politician who was never supposed to rise to the top. First president since Reagan with no Ivy League credential. A throwback to a more egalitarian America. A fluke.
Whenever I hear Ivy League I just think of some of the SCOTUS members, and analysts say the smartest one is actually Barrett, who went to Notre Dame ( when I was young a solid student had no problem getting in there, or NYU, or Fordham or any of a number of these kinds of schools ) and I always note how a Doctor from Harvard wanted to laser my face to clear up a rash, so I went to a guy who grew up in the Bronx ( he did go to Williams undergrad I later learned ) and went to NY Medical, and he gave me tetracycline and it cleared up in a week. And he couldn't believe someone wanted to use laser on that. And of course JD Vance....
I don’t think Axelrod was running down JB but was just expressing his thoughts about JB running again and if he was the best candidate to beat Trump. I heard his comments and he sounded very sincere and was not hostile in anyway. Actually I think there are many leading democrats who feel the same way but are too afraid to speak out for fear of alienating the party establishment and threatening their career. When JB heard what Axelrod said he called him a dick. I’m sure I’m naive about how Washington works but it’s disturbing to me knowing that what I hear from party elites may be completely different from how they really feel. What really concerns me is if party loyalty and self preservation take precedent over doing everything possible to beat Trump. If things become so obvious and yet no one is willing to speak up, I fear we could be heading towards a political disaster in November.
Barring a medical issue. Biden is our nominee. Democratic operatives need to get on board. This notion that he can he replaced now is fantasy.
My New Thing:
MSM, SubStack, and anyone any where: when you discuss what Trump says, quote it verbatim. Do not smooth it out, clean it up, make corrections. Show what he actually says in all its word salad disconnected bizarreness. Let us all see and hear him for who/what he really is.
Of course I still have My Old Thing. It will apparently never go out of style:
For ever I have been screaming at the MSM to do their job and inform the public. This report from Hur is yet another episode of sensationalizing something that really doesn’t merit it. Where is the balance? Where is the discussion that Ben Hur is not qualified to comment on someone’s memory. And that the bottom line is that Biden acted responsibly and cooperated completely. There were no charges brought. Period end of story.
Some happ(ier) thoughts per Hursmeargate. Looking at this morning’s coverage, I think it’s already turning into a positive for us (which I’m amazed by, thought it would take months).
1. It’s forcing a deeper examination by top pollitical journos of Biden’s “memory” and “cognitive” problems which don’t really exist and will actually serve to counter this “Biden is senile” narrative. Trump and MAGA have gotten away with calling out Biden’s gaffes because they played to a surface level assumption “Biden is too old, he’s 81, he’s feeble.” But, now the charges have been formalized and the WashPo and (even) the NYT have to investigate assumptions. Hur has actually created a higher bar - for elite journos - about these charges. Joe Biden is not 50 anymore but the guy is not anywhere close what Hur alleged. So, it will actually make it harder for the Trump campaign (in terms of pushing this with the elite press).
2. Most importantly, it forces journalists (because of reflexive both sideism) to now also seriously cover Trump’s decline and there is a there, there. Haley had made some headway on this point but the media has largely given Trump a pass (because papers like the NYT respond to the right). Now, because they will want to/are eager to formerly examine the issue for Biden, they will have to - because they can’t stop doing both sideism - formerly examine Trump’s age issues and that is very bad for the Trump campaign and will give the Biden campaign stories to use in their narrative.
3. It called the bluff of many Biden haters, replacers. The columns are now being written (check out the NYT), that Biden has to go and the Dems need to replace him because he’s feeble. Biden is not feeble and he is not being replaced. In fact, Biden is fully in charge of his faculties and the party. So, the Bluff is called and - although I am sure will be tried again - will be weaker and weaker.
4. It sets us up for the debates in a beautiful way. Trump will now be evaluated on whether he makes sense in comparison as to whether Biden makes sense (for the post debate peformance review media frenzy) and that is very good for us as the expectations will be that Biden does not and Trump does and the debates - if team Biden is prepared - will show the opposite.
5. Team Biden has been now forced to move on age. Biden - I think for understandable reasons - seemed to not be allowing his team to move on the age issue (because he doesn’t think he’s got a problem) but now this has happened and they are activated. It’s a good thing.
6. The Trump campaign just played one of their “Trump” cards in February . They can’t do this again and took their shot way too early in a way that is going to hugely backfire. Yes, I know Hur had to file now but the campaign clearly drove this and could have decided to use another vehicle later on in the cycle. As Simon has written, they are desperate and so did this way too early. If this had come in October, it could have been fatal but in February, bring it on, baby. :)
Swear - I read this after I wrote the above :) Great minds.
https://oldgoats.substack.com/p/surviving-bidens-brain-freezes?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=3zhgt&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I deeply appreciate these doses of hopium. I suffer from an anxiety disorder that began long before MAGA, long before the Tea Party even, but which is sometimes so exacerbated by worry about the election that I can find it competely overwhelming. I know that millions of us are anxious, and that's unavoidable. But it's a matter of degree. I do my best to try to keep the worrying in check and spend more energy on the doing. I sent 30 postcards for Suozzi. I've called my PA senators and House rep to thank them for recent votes and stands they've taken. I played around on Canva creating a bumper sticker design for Biden '24 that features the words: "democracy, sanity, jobs, environment, reporoductive rights." I have donated what I can afford. So I'm taking actions -- doing the things I have control over, the things involving my time, energy, and intention. And I'm trying my best to accept the reality we all face, that we can't control Life or the unfolding of the world. We can be rationally optimistic while working our butts off, though. This blog helps me do that.
I find writing postcards very soothing for when my brain gets stuck on the hamster wheel. So I like to always have some addresses on hand. Yesterday morning my power went out before I had a chance to eat breakfast. So I found my list of voters and started writing postcards in the light of my Coleman lantern.
Since you mentioned PA, I wanted to make sure you were aware of a new postcard campaign from Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) to PA voters who vote by mail. Apparently, if you aren't paying attention when you fill out the application you might only get a ballot for the primary - not all 2024 elections.
The postcards have a short script and are "mail as you go" but no later than Apr 6.
thanks for letting me know about that. I've been doing lots of activist work to get more people to VBM in PA. I know exactly the hangup you're talking about. You have to check a box requesting that you get all your 2024 ballots by mail. otherwise, you just get one election at a time. I'll check into it! OK, I'm editing this 2 min later. I've signed up to do 30 postcards for VBM in PA!
Great!