Winning NY-3, Do More/Worry Less, The Republicans Are Having A Truly Awful 2024
Our Monthly Gathering Of The Full Hopium Community Is This Thursday/Welcome New Subscribers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy Saturday all. A few thing for you today:
It’s The Final Weekend in NY-3 - Please Donate, Volunteer Today - I am so grateful for how this community has stepped up to help us win this critical race. Almost 1,700 of you have contributed through this site so far, raising more than $100,000. Many more have sent postcards, called, texted, canvassed, spread the good word about Tom Suozzi and our opportunity to take this seat away from MAGA. Tom leads in all the final polls. The early vote is promising. We can and should win here on Tuesday - but only if we do the work here at the end and help Tom close strong. So, please, take one more step today, right now - make a small contribution, sign up for another shift of GOTV calls, knock on a few more doors, work your networks to encourage others to join you. What you do, today, could make the difference between us having a big and consequential win this week, or not. Let’s get to it:
Sharing again this uplifting story posted Twitter on Thursday. So proud of all of you - we just keep outworking, outhustling the other side in election after election after election:
Today I remembered that I have an old-coworker/friend who lives in #NY03. So naturally I texted her to find out whether she was going to vote early (or at all), what she's seeing on the ground, etc. Couple of interesting tidbits...
First, my friend is a registered Independent who pretty consistently votes blue. Her husband is also an independent, but I'm not sure how he votes. Anyhow, she's been getting Suozzi people knocking on her door one a week and 3 fliers a day, also for Suozzi.
Of note: Despite being an Ind, NO ONE from Mazi Pilip's camp has knocked on her door. She hasn't voted early yet, but will try to this weekend with family. I told her - per @SimonWDC's Vote on Day 1 Rule - the sooner she votes early, the sooner the doorknocking will stop lol.
My friend has also gotten postcards and letters from activists reminding her to vote! "I've never seen anything like it," she said. Well done all you postcard-writing Democrats in #NY03! And her parents are voting for Suozzi as well.
So, while this is all anecdotal, it seems clear that Tom Suozzi's campaign is putting in the work to win this election, and the awesome postcard writers out there are doing their part as well. Great job to everyone involved trying to win this race!
Tom texted me last night thanking our community for all of our hard work. He feels it. He knows we have his back. Now let’s go finish the job and win this thing, together.
The 2024 Elections - Posts, Presentations, Interviews and Pods - Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This Year - Lots of material here for you to chew on this weekend. Enjoy all….
Hopium Posts - 4 Things Biden Should Do Now - From TNR, Another Huge Jobs Report, Notes on Recent Polling, The Democratic Party Is Strong, The Republican Party Is Broken, Building The Most Powerful Democratic Machine We’ve Ever Had, Not Clear Israel-Hamas War Is Hurting Biden
On the President’s age, two points. Here’s what the Special Counsel wrote about Biden - a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Ok, I’ll take that. Compared to Trump? A disgraced, venal, rapist, a delusional madman - I think we win that one.
Second, I share a portion of something I wrote on the President’s birthday last November…..
It Is The President’s Birthday Today! - So of course there is a discussion of the the President’s age….here I am in the NYTimes today:
Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the White House should lean even more into the benefits of Mr. Biden’s age rather than be defensive.
“He’s been successful because of his age, not in spite of it,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “We’re all going to have to make that case because it’s true. We can’t run away from the age issue. It’s going to be a major part of the conversation, but we would be making a political mistake if we don’t contest it more aggressively.”
And in The Guardian:
Biden also found more cheerful birthday reading from Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who correctly played down fears of a Republican midterm “red wave”.
“I have a simple message,” Rosenberg wrote in his newsletter. “We should be very optimistic about winning the presidential election next year.”
Rosenberg added: “The Republican party is in trouble. It keeps losing elections across the country. It has done two things since 2020, each of which could keep a political party out of power for decades – stripped women of fundamental rights, and led a party-wide conspiracy to overturn an election and end American democracy.”
He also pointed to a “terrible” New York Times poll that showed Trump ahead in battleground states but also asked what voters would do if Trump was sentenced to prison, which Rosenberg said was “likely”.
Pointing to results including a 23-point swing to Biden in Nevada and an 18-point shift in Georgia, Rosenberg said: “Here is what happens in the battlegrounds – huge swings, GOP devastation.”
The Republican’s Truly Awful Start To 2024 - Let’s review:
They are rallying behind the most unfit man to ever run for President, a candidate far weaker than he was when he lost the last election. He is running from the court house not the White House this time; he’s been indicted 91 times (!!!!!) and is out on bail; he is a verified rapist, fraudster and insurrectionist; he stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it and shared them others; he and his family have taken more money from foreign governments than any family in American history; he is singularly responsible for stripping the rights and freedoms away from more than half the population. His performance on the stump is far more erratic, delusional and disturbing - he is greatly diminished; and he keeps making impulsive and reckless traditional political mistakes, like coming out against the ACA, which are the kinds of mistakes that cause candidates to lose elections. You can paint his face, die his hair, strap a girdle on him (and a diaper too), pump him full of speed and he is still never going to look like a serious Presidential candidate again. He is a vile American monster.
Due to the escalating success of the Biden Presidency, their core attacks on the President - the economy, inflation, crime, war on energy - are evaporating. Their extremism and incompetence handed Biden and the Dems a huge win on the border and immigration this week, making it far less likely these too becomes issues they can use to their advantage. And I for one do not believe Biden’s age is a winning issue for them either, as any extended comparison to the historically unfit and deranged Trump will not work out well from them. All that’s left for them now is their madness, their extremism and their orange-faced leader.
Republican electoral struggles we saw throughout 2022 and 2023 are showing up in early 2024. Turnout in the Iowa Caucuses despite $100m spent and loads of candidate time was shockingly low; Trump only received 56,000 votes from the 750,000 registered Republicans in the state. Trump underperformed public polling in New Hampshire by 10-15 points (big yikes!!!), and Biden got a higher percentage of his primary vote despite not even being on the ballot there. In Nevada this week Biden got twice as many votes as Trump. They lost an important Florida state house seat in January every one thought they would win. And perhaps most importantly, we have seen in the polling in these early states a big chunk of the GOP electorate - 20%-30% with enormous reservations about Trump, and many who have openly stated that would be willing to cross over and vote for Biden.
The RNC is broke, and broken. It’s leaders are abandoning ship. Dozens of Republican leaders across the US have been indicted for working to overturn an American elections, many more are under investigation. GOP state parties in critical states are mired in epic scandals or have become dysfunctional. Trump spent more money than he raised last year - just holy cow - and a big judgment in NY State this week could bankrupt him, and potentially his 2024 campaign as well.
The MAGA led House is the worst in modern times. It’s blocking of Ukraine funding is the most reckless act by Congress in many many decades. They can’t govern - can’t keep a Speaker, can’t pass rules, can’t pass any legislation, can’t work with their Senate colleagues, can’t hold hearings without embarrassing themselves and will still have no 2024 budget 5 months into a 12 month budgeting cycle. Competent, experienced Members are retiring in droves. Their inept and ridiculous new Speaker lost two (!!!!!!) full floor votes this week, and walked into Dark Brandon’s trap on the border and immigration. They are shamefully flying in Rep. Steve Scalise on Tuesday, in the middle of life-saving cancer treatments, to do whatever it is they think they are doing to Secretary Mayorkas. This past week may go down as one of the worst weeks for a Speaker in American history.
And, perhaps worst of all, this is the agenda they will be taking to the American people this year:
They want Putin to win, the West to lose. The border to be in chaos, and migrants to keep flowing into the country. The economy to crash. Women, people of color to lose more freedoms and rights. The planet to warm faster. 10 year olds to carry their rapist's baby to term, and for more women to die on an operating room table. Tens of millions to lose their health insurance. More dead kids in schools. Verified rapists in positions of authority. A restoration of pre-Civil Rights era white supremacy. Big tax cuts for their donors, higher deficits and less for everyone else. Books banned across the US. Seniors to pay more for insulin and prescription drugs. Foreign governments free to pollute our daily discourse and harass our citizens. Teenagers to work night shifts in meat packing plants and not go to school. The minimum wage to stay at $7.25. Mass arrests and mass deportations of immigrants long settled in the US. Insurrectionists to get pardoned. To end American democracy for all time.
We have a long and hard nine months ahead of us. We are going to have good days, and not good days. Through it all we need to do more, worry less, and stayed grounded in the fundamental reality of the 2024 election:
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all across the country. And they have Trump.
And if we keep doing the work, we will keep winning.
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - In our 2024 spirit of growth and expansion, I’m encouraging members of the Hopium community to get involved and take an action in four campaigns and projects, below. A hearty thank you to the thousands here who’ve already donated, volunteered and spread some Hopium:
Flip NY-3 - Tom Suozzi leads in the early polls and will win if we give Tom the resources and volunteers he needs. The election is Feb. 13th and early in person voting has begun so please take an action to help Tom today! If you want to learn more watch my recent interview with Tom, and take an action here:
Elect Joe And Kamala, Beat Trump - Please donate to Biden-Harris today, join the campaign and start planning for what you will do to help them spread their message through your networks and win the core 7 battlegrounds AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI. Beating Trump is Job 1 this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Get Early Resources to North Carolina, Our Most Important 2024 Expansion State - Our number one Presidential battleground expansion opportunity this year is North Carolina, and I am encouraging the Hopium community to support the Democratic Party of North Carolina and its dynamic new chair, Anderson Clayton. Watch my recent interview with Anderson and learn how to donate and volunteer here. Help us turn Carolina blue!
Spread Hopium - Help me bring Hopium to more people this year. Our goal is to get to 50,000 total subscribers by March 31st (we are at 38,000 today). Please encourage others in your network to sign up and become part of this wonderful community of proud patriots and info warriors today!
Thursday, February 15, 7pm EST - Monthly Hopium Wide Political Briefing and Get Together - This Thursday will be our monthly gathering of the entire Hopium community, now 38,000 strong! I will kick it off with 20 minutes of opening remarks about our current political moment and then take your questions. Register here. Hopefully we will be celebrating a big Suozzi win, together! A video recording of this event will be available to all members of the Hopium community who cannot make it live.
Keep working hard all, and let’s win NY-3, together - Simon