- Per CNN exit polling, Democrats won 18-24s by 25 and 25-29s by 32 in the 2022 midterm. A Biden collapse with young people wouldn't just be a monumental collapse from 2020, it would be a bigger collapse from 2022. Assuming these young people haven't fled the whole Democratic party en masse in just two years, the assumption then becomes that they'd be voting for an entirely blue ballot... and Donald Trump.
- As a compendium to the Harvard survey, this UChicago one has some insights into why Biden looks so down with young voters: https://genforwardsurvey.com/2024/06/05/data-may-2024-survey/?question=Q1. Biden's down from 60% support with this cohort in 2020 to 35% in May, but Trump goes from 31% to 31%. If you sort by political party, Biden's biggest losses are with "Strong Democrats" and "Lean Democrats" - not likely Trump converts. These voters also report themselves as very likely to vote - about 90% for all 3 Dem categories (about 20 points ahead of "Strong Republicans", with "Lean Republicans" tanking at 42%). So these are people who voted for Biden in 2020, who probably will vote in 2024, and who will not be considering Trump... leads to kind of a clear takeaway about what could happen in November.
young voters are most disappointed with Biden on climate change. When they are actually informed of Biden's work, they are very much in favor of voting for him. This was discussed by Joe Trippi this morning; both he and Rick Wilson feel the felony convictions are gonna leave a mark, a big one, despite Chauncey DeVega in Salon today writing otherwise.
"social media networks" and that explains it in a nutshell. I think we will be fine with younger voters, I'm more worried about those older voters ( like me ! ) because they will actually vote. When Rick Wilson was asked about the protestors, he remarked something like, who cares, they probably aren't voting. This guy knows his stuff. Don't wanna be dismissive, but I have seen the youth vote not turn out before, like in 2004, when we were in an unpopular war and their cohorts were getting killed, and there was strong incentive to vote the incumbent out. Where is the strong incentive to vote Biden out? W was running against a decorated war hero with decades in the senate who was highly respected. And he couldn't beat W. Biden OTOH unseated an incumbent who was a disaster. Has Biden been a disaster? Who really thinks so? Why would anyone who is not in the cult want to go back to 4 years ago?
What we see on social media A) is not representative of reality, and B) is HIGHLY compounded by foreign misinformation accounts. If you look in the comments sections of any anti-Biden type leftist content, you can bank on the fact that a major proportion of comments supporting the content are not actual Americans. It’s absolutely correct to ‘not sweat it,’ as they say. Some day soon I hope we will have laws against bot and paid troll accounts, and we can clean the space up.
"But, like… why? If inflation is 2% over a 6 month stretch but still 3% YOY then isn’t it more accurate to say that inflation is at 2% than 3%, in terms of actually setting monetary policy?"
I'm not an economist, but I am a data nerd with a statisics degree. Using YoY numbers dampens out the noise so that the Fed isn't chasing short term changes in the Inflation rate and causing the economy and the capital markets to whipsaw. This smoothing of the data comes at the expense of having lags in reporting both good news (reduced inflation) and bad news (increased inflation). Of course, you can also hold the monthly and annual numbers in your head at the same time, so then you get a feel for whether inflation is holding at a stable rate, is accellerating or is decellerating.
Then add in the fact that almost everything financial is reported on a quarterly and/or annual basis, and there you have it!
I have never understood why "core inflation" excludes food, gas and electricity. After all, for most people, the prices of precisely these things are about as "core" as it gets!
I also think the reports, punditry around the economy are confusing intent to buy with actual purchasing. This is because reporters - as a whole - do not understand economics, stats and really how politics work. I am also a stats person and used to a lot of polling for both politics and business (and used to have to try and get people to buy stuff, donate, vote, etc). Surveys are useless when you ask people “what will you buy, do x). No good marketer, campaigner manages budget this way. You have to see what people do (not what they say they will do) because people are generally not good at predicting choice in a thereotical construct. So, it really doesn’t matter what people say about the economy it matters what they do in an economy. Are they taking vacations, are they investing, fixing up homes, getting a new apartment, going to school. People feel good in a good economy because their lives are easier and they have options. They feel bad because they don’t. So that’s why - usually - politicians presiding over a good economy get more votes (because people feel good). You can’t, as a political campaign, easily win in a bad economy even with a great propaganda apparatus and you will likely win in a good economy (even with a great propaganda apparatus on the other side trying to convince them that, no, you don’t actually feel good when people do).
Not only is the Federal Reserve Board being way too conservative on rate cuts, but as Robert Kuttner and others have shown, high Fed rates are actually inflationary!
Hey, Brad. What I do when I think an article is off-base or missing the point is write to the editor (these days have to use a form tucked away, but they do read them), or if there is contact info for the writer, I write them. I rarely use the comments section if they have one. Some outlets aren't worth wasting your time on, but most of them will at least listen. I do not rant or get indignant, and I definitely do not call names or use demeaning language. But I do let them know what bothers me about what they wrote, and, in respectful terms, why. I explain how I see the situation, and suggest a different approach for them to consider.
This has worked pretty well. I don't usually hear from them (though before things heated up, I sometimes did), but I've noticed that the people and news outlets I approach in this way do seem to pay attention and I often see a shift in how they cover things within days. Can't say it's just me: there are probably others communicating similar thoughts. All I can say is that the response is pretty consistent.
BTW, please do not confound opinion pieces with reporting. They are not the same thing, and most outlets clearly mark opinion pieces as just that. Reporting staff do reporting. So if you write, keep that in mind. Also, do not confound opinion pieces with editorials. This can be harder, because some outlets lump them together. The difference is that editorials are generally put out by an editorial board or by a team of people representing the outlet and are the voice of the outlet. Opinion pieces represent only the author.
lt's really up to us to call out the media if they mis-step or mis-speak. That's part of democracy too.
I'd like to recommend that Simon please invite on a rotating basis 1-2 of Hopium's endorsed House Congressional candidates to speak with us during our all member zooms. I know first hand that this would really increase the amount of $$$ raised. Thank you for your consideration.
Teri, feel free to invite the candidates yourselves. Not something I have the bandwith to manage. Great idea though! Let's do everything we can to help them win! Best, Simon
Teri, I just emailed you with more information. There will be no event on the 25th with Tony Vargas. Not sure how this got misconstrued, but I have a plan for how I am doing these events with the candidates and we will not be hosting live events with them. You are free to do whatever you like with your own community but I am the only one who can speak on behalf of this one. Thank you.
You can do whatever you like for your community - thank you - but I run all the Hopium events Teri. I have another event at 830pm on the 25th. Please dial all this back. Thank you.
Polls aren't predictive, but if you want a pick-me-up (and I needed one after UMich) they have Biden leading WI and MI and trailing PA by less than a point. Trump leads AZ by essentially the same amount as Biden leads WI and NC continues to make no sense whatsoever.
Also plugging Joshua Smithley, a PA strategist who has Biden as both leading and a favorite there and is great at explaining why he can't and won't underperform the Senate race by 8 points. https://x.com/blockedfreq
We seem to have two types of polls for NV: Trump leads by some unreasonable margin, and ties. They probably average out to the four-point lead they give there. FWIW, NV may just be a quirky state electorally - I looked into late-deciders in 2020 and Biden actually lost about 4 points on margin in the month of October (he gained in several other battlegrounds and actually won AZ and GA within that month).
NV does seem to be moving right - they voted a Dem Governor out in 2022 in one of the few bright spots for the GOP that night and Biden won by less than Hillary did - but the little polling we have on Rosen-Brown has Rosen up on him by double digits. It doesn't seem plausible that Rosen would outrun Biden by 20 points (Times/Siena had Rosen up by only two, but they had Trump up by 12, so...).
My theory regarding Nevada is that the pandemic took a larger economic toll per capita on Nevada residents as those in any other state - and it happened while a Democrat was governor. The shutdowns at the casinos - whose low or nonexistent occupancy rates killed not just the Vegas but the whole state's economy severely. I think the Democratic Party is being blamed for a problem that existed there before the pandemic: its economy is over-reliant on one industry, one which, like cruise trips, cannot operate during a pandemic.
Well the pandemic lockdowns are ancient history already. What did they expect.....leave the casinos open for the gambler's anonymous crowd and watch people get sick and die? They're going to punish the president who was not in charge when things went to hell? I've heard this theory before, and it makes little sense. Frankly, none of the explanations for trump being ahead anywhere make any sense.
That’s exactly what I think, and why Sisolak lost and Catherine Cortez Masto’s race was so close (against the guy whose OWN FAMILY keeps taking out ads saying don’t vote for him!). Business is back in NV, and, if anything, Sam Brown is worse than Adam Laxalt - maybe his family loves him, but he has 0 experience politically and is regarded as one of those extremist rich guys that the GOP has to rely on now that they have no funding.
Rosen managed to beat an incumbent and outrun her state’s partisan lean. I don’t think that Harry Reid, of all people, would select and groom a dud for Congress. As for Biden, I think he will win in the end - maybe more narrowly than we’d like, but he’ll win.
Nevada has always been a hard state to poll, even in the days when polls were reliable. Too many transient residents, shift workers, and people whose first language is not English, all of the above making them hard to reach and interview.
Agree with your take on NV. I don't know much about the current set there, but when I was growing up in So Oregon (way back when) hardly anyone paid attention to Nevada. It's grown a lot, but the place is hard to pin down. Outsiders hear "Nevada" and think gambling and legal prostitution. But there's a lot more than that there and a lot of different perspectives that don't overlap the way they might in some other states. In my youth, Reno looked pretty much like an ordinary town with an unusual downtown. Schools, shopping centers, people going to work, kids going to school. Las Vegas was always Las Vegas: my brother died there, a victim of PTSD and his own excesses. But then there were miles of dry-land ranches, and gorgeous scenery where you'd least expect it. And the nuclear industry and its componants. One of my aunts lived downwind from the blast site; she died in her 40s from leukemia. So there's that as a factor too. I don't think there is an easy way to define NV. And absolutely no way to predict it because of the complexity of the cultures there. BTW, thanks for the update on a bit of NV in your note. I am a westerner who got stuck in New England and after 20 years I still feel out of place here. Even NV is a bit more like home to me (though my heart is in the PacNW).
It is truly unnerving to see Donald Trump applauded by every Republican member of Congress, when – as Nancy Pelosi astutely puts it – Trump is "returning to the scene of the crime".
America cannot afford to allow this convicted felon and aspiring Fascist anywhere near the Oval Office! And his acolytes, boot-lickers and spineless enablers need to be voted out of office, en masse!
Watching the CNN piece was irritating: every time the host spoke with what's-her-name and the camera was on both of them, there was a montage of Trump pictures running in the background. It's as if CNN is running a subliminal campaign for him.
The whole CNN format is ridiculous. Simon, the dem, is on zoom from his son’s bedroom and the mandatory Trump, MAGA rep is in studio because they are a paid contributor. And, then the host conducts the segment like a tennis match and is constantly trying to the Dems to agree with GOP talking points (as if that’s news or interesting). Who do they think wants this? This is the visual and literal manifestation of both siderism and is just bad TV, not interesting (although I am glad to get to hear Simon) and bad business (as witnessed by their ratings) and bad journalism. The only benefit is that CNN theoretically has an answer then conservatives yell at them or when John Malone sends an email to management.
I like Simon's sports metaphor for the 2024 election.
It's the first quarter and we are tied. The Democratic team is favored to win and that means we have to do the work to go on to win the game. If every Democrat sits on their hands during the game from fear and worry due to russia-gop propaganda, we lose the game. When every Democrat takes every action they can do, we win the game. Go Team!!
I wanna urge y'all to join me in "making June count" by officially getting yourselves on the Biden and/or DNC '24 volunteer teams for phonebanking, etc.
Alternately (or additionally!), you can register for the Biden/Harris introductory Zoom ("Organizing Strategy Session") at this link: https://events.democrats.org/event/626848/
I've recently attended each of the above Zoom onboardings, and can heartily recommend 'em both. Both the DNC and the Biden/Harris campaigns are currently in force-multiplication mode. Right now it's all about identifying Dem-leaning voters and inviting them to join our merry band of democracy-saving activists. As the summer gets hotter and this volunteer army grows and multiplies, the outreach objectives will almost certainly evolve into other types of voter ID and persuasion (and, eventually, GOTV). But at the moment, their focus is growing the army. So I hope you'll join me in signing up! Uncle Sam needs you!
I wondered about Simon’s thoughts on the 538 election forecast model, which shows an essential tie (Biden by one point) but shows him doing very well in the necessary rustbelt states. Provides a somewhat different picture than most poll averages. Wasn’t sure about how it works.
In their election forecast, FIveThirtyEight has always added a "secret sauce". I know they weight the polls based on pollster quality, and include various fundamentals, but the exact ingredients and their proportions is always a closely guarded secret. This means no one can replicate their model, which is proprietary.
That said, I suggest waiting a few weeks or a month, until FiveThirtyEight catches up with more recent polling and other developments.
On the topic of messaging the difference between Biden and trump’s public speaking. Would not the best democratic ad campaign be to simply have Biden read verbatim one of trumps word salads, like his shark one in Vegas the other day. Can you imagine how Fox and the right wing internet would explode with how to cover that? It would expose trumps lunacy and unfitness for office…..
FYI, Wesley Harris, running for State Treasurer, is my current NC House Rep. He got gerrymandered out of our district and decided to run for Treasurer. He has get his pHD in Economics, but comes from a rural NC county. So he and Anderson Clayton make the perfect pair to bring the Democrat message to the rural counties.
Couple quick things. I also wrote postcards through Postcards to Voters for the Dem in the special election in OH in which he overperformed awesomely. I love doing this work! Also, I create bumper stickers and visual memes you're welcome to download and share on soc media or print and post in real life places. My latest are: https://theaccidentalrabbi.substack.com/p/more-stickers-and-images-to-share
A couple of data points on younger voters:
- Per CNN exit polling, Democrats won 18-24s by 25 and 25-29s by 32 in the 2022 midterm. A Biden collapse with young people wouldn't just be a monumental collapse from 2020, it would be a bigger collapse from 2022. Assuming these young people haven't fled the whole Democratic party en masse in just two years, the assumption then becomes that they'd be voting for an entirely blue ballot... and Donald Trump.
- As a compendium to the Harvard survey, this UChicago one has some insights into why Biden looks so down with young voters: https://genforwardsurvey.com/2024/06/05/data-may-2024-survey/?question=Q1. Biden's down from 60% support with this cohort in 2020 to 35% in May, but Trump goes from 31% to 31%. If you sort by political party, Biden's biggest losses are with "Strong Democrats" and "Lean Democrats" - not likely Trump converts. These voters also report themselves as very likely to vote - about 90% for all 3 Dem categories (about 20 points ahead of "Strong Republicans", with "Lean Republicans" tanking at 42%). So these are people who voted for Biden in 2020, who probably will vote in 2024, and who will not be considering Trump... leads to kind of a clear takeaway about what could happen in November.
young voters are most disappointed with Biden on climate change. When they are actually informed of Biden's work, they are very much in favor of voting for him. This was discussed by Joe Trippi this morning; both he and Rick Wilson feel the felony convictions are gonna leave a mark, a big one, despite Chauncey DeVega in Salon today writing otherwise.
"social media networks" and that explains it in a nutshell. I think we will be fine with younger voters, I'm more worried about those older voters ( like me ! ) because they will actually vote. When Rick Wilson was asked about the protestors, he remarked something like, who cares, they probably aren't voting. This guy knows his stuff. Don't wanna be dismissive, but I have seen the youth vote not turn out before, like in 2004, when we were in an unpopular war and their cohorts were getting killed, and there was strong incentive to vote the incumbent out. Where is the strong incentive to vote Biden out? W was running against a decorated war hero with decades in the senate who was highly respected. And he couldn't beat W. Biden OTOH unseated an incumbent who was a disaster. Has Biden been a disaster? Who really thinks so? Why would anyone who is not in the cult want to go back to 4 years ago?
The Gaza kids are jumping the shark (like Trump ;). Now attacking AOC and doing stuff like the below. IMHO, it’s going to alienate other young voters. Just not quite done yet (will be soon). https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8FYUTNPfYe/?igsh=MTkyZTYzd3RiN251NA%3D%3D
What we see on social media A) is not representative of reality, and B) is HIGHLY compounded by foreign misinformation accounts. If you look in the comments sections of any anti-Biden type leftist content, you can bank on the fact that a major proportion of comments supporting the content are not actual Americans. It’s absolutely correct to ‘not sweat it,’ as they say. Some day soon I hope we will have laws against bot and paid troll accounts, and we can clean the space up.
"But, like… why? If inflation is 2% over a 6 month stretch but still 3% YOY then isn’t it more accurate to say that inflation is at 2% than 3%, in terms of actually setting monetary policy?"
I'm not an economist, but I am a data nerd with a statisics degree. Using YoY numbers dampens out the noise so that the Fed isn't chasing short term changes in the Inflation rate and causing the economy and the capital markets to whipsaw. This smoothing of the data comes at the expense of having lags in reporting both good news (reduced inflation) and bad news (increased inflation). Of course, you can also hold the monthly and annual numbers in your head at the same time, so then you get a feel for whether inflation is holding at a stable rate, is accellerating or is decellerating.
Then add in the fact that almost everything financial is reported on a quarterly and/or annual basis, and there you have it!
I have never understood why "core inflation" excludes food, gas and electricity. After all, for most people, the prices of precisely these things are about as "core" as it gets!
To remove volatility again. I don't think people like us are the audience for this metric - I think it is for policy-setting works at the Fed.
I also think the reports, punditry around the economy are confusing intent to buy with actual purchasing. This is because reporters - as a whole - do not understand economics, stats and really how politics work. I am also a stats person and used to a lot of polling for both politics and business (and used to have to try and get people to buy stuff, donate, vote, etc). Surveys are useless when you ask people “what will you buy, do x). No good marketer, campaigner manages budget this way. You have to see what people do (not what they say they will do) because people are generally not good at predicting choice in a thereotical construct. So, it really doesn’t matter what people say about the economy it matters what they do in an economy. Are they taking vacations, are they investing, fixing up homes, getting a new apartment, going to school. People feel good in a good economy because their lives are easier and they have options. They feel bad because they don’t. So that’s why - usually - politicians presiding over a good economy get more votes (because people feel good). You can’t, as a political campaign, easily win in a bad economy even with a great propaganda apparatus and you will likely win in a good economy (even with a great propaganda apparatus on the other side trying to convince them that, no, you don’t actually feel good when people do).
Not only is the Federal Reserve Board being way too conservative on rate cuts, but as Robert Kuttner and others have shown, high Fed rates are actually inflationary!
Hey, Brad. What I do when I think an article is off-base or missing the point is write to the editor (these days have to use a form tucked away, but they do read them), or if there is contact info for the writer, I write them. I rarely use the comments section if they have one. Some outlets aren't worth wasting your time on, but most of them will at least listen. I do not rant or get indignant, and I definitely do not call names or use demeaning language. But I do let them know what bothers me about what they wrote, and, in respectful terms, why. I explain how I see the situation, and suggest a different approach for them to consider.
This has worked pretty well. I don't usually hear from them (though before things heated up, I sometimes did), but I've noticed that the people and news outlets I approach in this way do seem to pay attention and I often see a shift in how they cover things within days. Can't say it's just me: there are probably others communicating similar thoughts. All I can say is that the response is pretty consistent.
BTW, please do not confound opinion pieces with reporting. They are not the same thing, and most outlets clearly mark opinion pieces as just that. Reporting staff do reporting. So if you write, keep that in mind. Also, do not confound opinion pieces with editorials. This can be harder, because some outlets lump them together. The difference is that editorials are generally put out by an editorial board or by a team of people representing the outlet and are the voice of the outlet. Opinion pieces represent only the author.
lt's really up to us to call out the media if they mis-step or mis-speak. That's part of democracy too.
I'd like to recommend that Simon please invite on a rotating basis 1-2 of Hopium's endorsed House Congressional candidates to speak with us during our all member zooms. I know first hand that this would really increase the amount of $$$ raised. Thank you for your consideration.
Teri, feel free to invite the candidates yourselves. Not something I have the bandwith to manage. Great idea though! Let's do everything we can to help them win! Best, Simon
I don’t understand what you are asking. That you want to host events with our candidates for the Hopium community?
Teri, I just emailed you with more information. There will be no event on the 25th with Tony Vargas. Not sure how this got misconstrued, but I have a plan for how I am doing these events with the candidates and we will not be hosting live events with them. You are free to do whatever you like with your own community but I am the only one who can speak on behalf of this one. Thank you.
You can do whatever you like for your community - thank you - but I run all the Hopium events Teri. I have another event at 830pm on the 25th. Please dial all this back. Thank you.
Also should partner with FT 6. Adding millions of new Democrats. Register new Democrats to save the world. Please check out Text Arcade.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Cross-posting from Jay Kuo's substack this morning: https://x.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1801319396146876482?t=dlYuBcwzZXmET9Xd_RRdaQ
Polls aren't predictive, but if you want a pick-me-up (and I needed one after UMich) they have Biden leading WI and MI and trailing PA by less than a point. Trump leads AZ by essentially the same amount as Biden leads WI and NC continues to make no sense whatsoever.
Also plugging Joshua Smithley, a PA strategist who has Biden as both leading and a favorite there and is great at explaining why he can't and won't underperform the Senate race by 8 points. https://x.com/blockedfreq
Those NV numbers do suck...WTF is going on there? Has Biden led there yet? How many crap polls are figured in?
We seem to have two types of polls for NV: Trump leads by some unreasonable margin, and ties. They probably average out to the four-point lead they give there. FWIW, NV may just be a quirky state electorally - I looked into late-deciders in 2020 and Biden actually lost about 4 points on margin in the month of October (he gained in several other battlegrounds and actually won AZ and GA within that month).
NV does seem to be moving right - they voted a Dem Governor out in 2022 in one of the few bright spots for the GOP that night and Biden won by less than Hillary did - but the little polling we have on Rosen-Brown has Rosen up on him by double digits. It doesn't seem plausible that Rosen would outrun Biden by 20 points (Times/Siena had Rosen up by only two, but they had Trump up by 12, so...).
My theory regarding Nevada is that the pandemic took a larger economic toll per capita on Nevada residents as those in any other state - and it happened while a Democrat was governor. The shutdowns at the casinos - whose low or nonexistent occupancy rates killed not just the Vegas but the whole state's economy severely. I think the Democratic Party is being blamed for a problem that existed there before the pandemic: its economy is over-reliant on one industry, one which, like cruise trips, cannot operate during a pandemic.
Well the pandemic lockdowns are ancient history already. What did they expect.....leave the casinos open for the gambler's anonymous crowd and watch people get sick and die? They're going to punish the president who was not in charge when things went to hell? I've heard this theory before, and it makes little sense. Frankly, none of the explanations for trump being ahead anywhere make any sense.
That’s exactly what I think, and why Sisolak lost and Catherine Cortez Masto’s race was so close (against the guy whose OWN FAMILY keeps taking out ads saying don’t vote for him!). Business is back in NV, and, if anything, Sam Brown is worse than Adam Laxalt - maybe his family loves him, but he has 0 experience politically and is regarded as one of those extremist rich guys that the GOP has to rely on now that they have no funding.
Rosen managed to beat an incumbent and outrun her state’s partisan lean. I don’t think that Harry Reid, of all people, would select and groom a dud for Congress. As for Biden, I think he will win in the end - maybe more narrowly than we’d like, but he’ll win.
Nevada has always been a hard state to poll, even in the days when polls were reliable. Too many transient residents, shift workers, and people whose first language is not English, all of the above making them hard to reach and interview.
Agree with your take on NV. I don't know much about the current set there, but when I was growing up in So Oregon (way back when) hardly anyone paid attention to Nevada. It's grown a lot, but the place is hard to pin down. Outsiders hear "Nevada" and think gambling and legal prostitution. But there's a lot more than that there and a lot of different perspectives that don't overlap the way they might in some other states. In my youth, Reno looked pretty much like an ordinary town with an unusual downtown. Schools, shopping centers, people going to work, kids going to school. Las Vegas was always Las Vegas: my brother died there, a victim of PTSD and his own excesses. But then there were miles of dry-land ranches, and gorgeous scenery where you'd least expect it. And the nuclear industry and its componants. One of my aunts lived downwind from the blast site; she died in her 40s from leukemia. So there's that as a factor too. I don't think there is an easy way to define NV. And absolutely no way to predict it because of the complexity of the cultures there. BTW, thanks for the update on a bit of NV in your note. I am a westerner who got stuck in New England and after 20 years I still feel out of place here. Even NV is a bit more like home to me (though my heart is in the PacNW).
It is truly unnerving to see Donald Trump applauded by every Republican member of Congress, when – as Nancy Pelosi astutely puts it – Trump is "returning to the scene of the crime".
America cannot afford to allow this convicted felon and aspiring Fascist anywhere near the Oval Office! And his acolytes, boot-lickers and spineless enablers need to be voted out of office, en masse!
Yup- agree; that was really yucky 🤢
I turned my tv off
Hi Hopium!~!
New June subscriber here!
So exciting!~!
Simon, I love your optimism and focus on positive messaging!~! So important to win over the undecideds!
I am envisioning a Blue Wave so big it knocks them (gop groypers) off their feet for a while!
Happy June Simon! Thank you for all the work you do and for Hopium
Welcome to Hopium Chronicles Michelle!
🇺🇸🇺🇸
Thank you Irene!
Hopium gives me hope!~! Have a great day!~! :)
Understand completely Michelle; it saved me when I joined last year! All my best👋🇺🇸
Watching the CNN piece was irritating: every time the host spoke with what's-her-name and the camera was on both of them, there was a montage of Trump pictures running in the background. It's as if CNN is running a subliminal campaign for him.
Unrelenting sycophancy has taken its toll.
The whole CNN format is ridiculous. Simon, the dem, is on zoom from his son’s bedroom and the mandatory Trump, MAGA rep is in studio because they are a paid contributor. And, then the host conducts the segment like a tennis match and is constantly trying to the Dems to agree with GOP talking points (as if that’s news or interesting). Who do they think wants this? This is the visual and literal manifestation of both siderism and is just bad TV, not interesting (although I am glad to get to hear Simon) and bad business (as witnessed by their ratings) and bad journalism. The only benefit is that CNN theoretically has an answer then conservatives yell at them or when John Malone sends an email to management.
I wish someone would comment on the Economist. Gives Trump 66% probability of winning
Simon did yesterday in the comments.
I didn’t see it. Thanks
Can you tell me where?
Wow what an amazing candidate. I’m so glad you’re interviewing all these amazing people who will help flip the house for us.
I like Simon's sports metaphor for the 2024 election.
It's the first quarter and we are tied. The Democratic team is favored to win and that means we have to do the work to go on to win the game. If every Democrat sits on their hands during the game from fear and worry due to russia-gop propaganda, we lose the game. When every Democrat takes every action they can do, we win the game. Go Team!!
Hey fellow HC fam!
I wanna urge y'all to join me in "making June count" by officially getting yourselves on the Biden and/or DNC '24 volunteer teams for phonebanking, etc.
You can register for an onboarding Zoom with the DNC Call Crew at this link: https://events.democrats.org/event/551644/
Alternately (or additionally!), you can register for the Biden/Harris introductory Zoom ("Organizing Strategy Session") at this link: https://events.democrats.org/event/626848/
I've recently attended each of the above Zoom onboardings, and can heartily recommend 'em both. Both the DNC and the Biden/Harris campaigns are currently in force-multiplication mode. Right now it's all about identifying Dem-leaning voters and inviting them to join our merry band of democracy-saving activists. As the summer gets hotter and this volunteer army grows and multiplies, the outreach objectives will almost certainly evolve into other types of voter ID and persuasion (and, eventually, GOTV). But at the moment, their focus is growing the army. So I hope you'll join me in signing up! Uncle Sam needs you!
I wondered about Simon’s thoughts on the 538 election forecast model, which shows an essential tie (Biden by one point) but shows him doing very well in the necessary rustbelt states. Provides a somewhat different picture than most poll averages. Wasn’t sure about how it works.
In their election forecast, FIveThirtyEight has always added a "secret sauce". I know they weight the polls based on pollster quality, and include various fundamentals, but the exact ingredients and their proportions is always a closely guarded secret. This means no one can replicate their model, which is proprietary.
That said, I suggest waiting a few weeks or a month, until FiveThirtyEight catches up with more recent polling and other developments.
On the topic of messaging the difference between Biden and trump’s public speaking. Would not the best democratic ad campaign be to simply have Biden read verbatim one of trumps word salads, like his shark one in Vegas the other day. Can you imagine how Fox and the right wing internet would explode with how to cover that? It would expose trumps lunacy and unfitness for office…..
Here is an interesting article on NC Dems and the rural votes:
https://www.wunc.org/politics/2024-06-10/north-carolina-democrats-rural-counties-2024-election.
FYI, Wesley Harris, running for State Treasurer, is my current NC House Rep. He got gerrymandered out of our district and decided to run for Treasurer. He has get his pHD in Economics, but comes from a rural NC county. So he and Anderson Clayton make the perfect pair to bring the Democrat message to the rural counties.
Couple quick things. I also wrote postcards through Postcards to Voters for the Dem in the special election in OH in which he overperformed awesomely. I love doing this work! Also, I create bumper stickers and visual memes you're welcome to download and share on soc media or print and post in real life places. My latest are: https://theaccidentalrabbi.substack.com/p/more-stickers-and-images-to-share