"Never argue with a drunk or a fool" comes to mind. When Biden wins, I am going to not engage with those fools. I am going to do what I did last time: Scream and run around with my hands up while my friend drove up and honked her horn repeatedly. 💙😂💙
It was great! I was so excited bc Biden had been finally been declared the winner. I was watching coverage. I got a text from my friend asking if I was home. I text back, Yes. She texts to come outside. I go outside and she was in her car and I started running around with my hands up - completely jubilant. She starts driving back and forth, honking and I just kept running around in circles. It was so silly but we both were so excited. My husband came outside and was smiling, completely excited but not running around like me. 😂😂😂😂. Unfortunately, most of my neighbors are republicans. They stayed inside. 😬
Say "Where's your evidence?". Maybe add "Oh, that's right, you have no evidence, only a bunch of lawyers losing their law licenses for lying about it."
The voters who are available to us do not believe we stole the election and thus this is not a good use of our time and money in the campaign or here at Hopium.
I’d say our time and money is much better spent making sure the voters available to us get out and vote, in numbers huge enough that the votes of those who believe Dems cheated are mere drops in the ocean.
I fully agree with Simon! That said, here is something I have argued:
"Do you believe Trump is a poor man, that Trump is stupid, or that Trump is unable to find good lawyers? Well, I don’t!" (At this point I am met with confused silence...)
"In more than 60 lawsuits, Trump’s lawyers argued "the 2020 election is stolen". Not once were Trump and his lawyers able to present a single shred of evidence to support their claim.
"That is why Trump lost every single one of his 60 plus cases, many of them rejected by judges Trump himself had appointed. Why? Because it simply is not true.
"And Trump is a smart guy. So, no, I don’t believe Trump was duped into appointing judges who are part of some vast, Biden / Deep State conspiracy. And I really don’t think you do either."
Thank you Simon, the trends are optimistic. Speaking of Wisconsin, the deadline to register and apply to vote by mail is July 24th for the August primaries. Blue wave postcards are laser focused on this campaign. If anyone is interested, I really like their cards because my handwriting is terrible and they are pre-printed with QR codes, so better for the recipients.
Hi Tracey, you do write a personal message on the card too. My two cents is that it’s the best of both worlds, the main message to voters is clear and easy (QR code Easy), then I add a note, sign my name and add embellishments. The cards are engaging and if I got one I would definitely put it on my fridge. I can also do twice as many cards which is important right now.
FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 EDT. Below is the link. Lynn Bommer, the instructor, advises they have 40,000 phone numbers and need volunteers. .
I watched lawrence O'donnell on wednesday night explaining about tariffs. I believe Biden should corner trump about his tax plan which would destroy our economy since many people believe trump would do a better job on the economy than biden. For those who didn't see lawrences show wednesday night. Trumps tariff war say on china wouldn't affect china but our pocketbooks shopping. He wants to replace income taxes with sales tax. Its a cover for the wealthy not to pay taxes and the middle class and poor to be hit with sales taxes on steroids which would make our lives unaffordable. Lawrence explained that Herbert Hoover was approached by a congressman and a senator to pass such a bill during the great depression. Henry Ford and others warned herbert hoover not to do it. It was a stupid idea. But Hoover signed the bill anyway making the great depression worse. Hoover lost to FDR and the congressman and senator who wrote the bill lost re-election because of that. The difference is Trumps tax plan would be more catastrophic to our country than what hoover did.
I think trump bought judge cannon telling her if you protect me with the classified case and if trump wins she will have a seat on the supreme court replacing clarence thomas or alito. alito's wife hates him being on the supreme court so it would be easier to replace alito. with thomas you have to give hima lavish lifestyle to leave.
You've been 100% correct on the timing and trends for the Biden/Trump race. Thank you so much for your work. The Trump-MAGA party is in for major trouncing they really can't imagine.
I am happily writing today about Biden’s recent polling results. Finally, a semblance of sanity seems to be settling upon some GOP voters. Biden has inched ahead of Trump in the 538 average poll results (which leans in favor of MAGA voters) and Biden’s leads in the NYTimes/Sienna Swing States poll by probably 3-4% when it’s adjusted for overweighting rural voters. The GOP seems to be savaging itself in front of American voters. We have been asking ourselves for months how any sane American could possibly support Trump, the criminal, autocrat wannabe More and more dedicated GOP voters are realizing the danger to America is not Biden’s faux “senility” but Trump’s self-serving inhumanity. This is all very bad news for Trump and his advisors. Over the next few months, we’re likely to see intense efforts, using distorted data, to prove America loves Trump’s America 2025 agenda. And we just can’t wait to get Steven Miller as our new AG. I’m eagerly awaiting the debate. At best for Trump, it will be a draw, if and only if, Trump can remain civil for 90 minutes. The likelihood he will descend into one form of boorish, non-presidential behavior or another is much more likely. Biden will be fine, like his performance in the State of the Union. America needs to get used to the idea that their next president is old AND extremely competent to continue governing in a dangerously demanding world.
Heartfelt thanks for all you do Simon. You lift us up and give us hope which fuels our work. I meet too many democrats who are discouraged and or checked out. When I remind them that making us feel helpless is a republican strategy - and the strategy of tyranny - they are floored. Then I introduce them to you, Robert Hubbell and Jessica Craven.
Trump brags about receiving $141 million in campaign donations in May, significantly outpacing Biden’s $85 million. The unwary might think the first figure reflects some sudden crowd approval… It does not!
Reality check: More than half of Trump’s haul was a single $75 million donation from bank heir Tim Mellon. Without Mellon, Trump took in a mere $66 million.
Worth noting: Mellon also donated $25 million to RFK Jr’s campaign, underscoring the fact that precisely the same deep-pocket billionaires are funding Trump and RFK Jr. Essentially, they’re two sides of the same coin – a strategy to put the Felon back into the White House.
.
Meanwhile: The share value of Truth Social has dropped by 50% since the start of June.
Good thing you mentioned that. Based what I have been hearing on CNN and MSNBC you would think that Trump is winning because of all the money he has been making, which isn’t true. Elections are won on lost by votes cast and not by money raised.
Come November, I think we’ll see "reverse coattails" lifting Biden in numerous states. Josh Stein is a wonderful candidate and, well, Mark Robinson is particularly venal and loathsome.
Likewise, wherever abortion rights are on the ballot, that will amplify Democratic turnout.
I am left scratching my head as to why Mellon would make such a fools bet. Actually I know why but somewhere in his soul he has to know Trump isn’t going to win.
Melissa, in addition to being a hard-right ideologue, I suspect Tim Mellon considers this an investment. In the unlikely event that Trump is returned to the White House, Mellon would be likely to get many times $75 million back in the form of tax cuts.
The thing I like most when Republicans lose is that it costs them so much more. Parse the latest fundraising totals closely - what you will see is Trump keeping his money in the bank even as the General Election is underway, not staffing up and opening offices, stripping the RNC bare so it isn’t prepared for down ballot GOTV, not buying choice airtime while it’s available and when PACs supporting him do, paying 3 to 4 times as much per ad as Biden’s federal campaign per FCC regulations. Not to mention that Trump is tapping these donations to pay huge legal bills for multiple past and ongoing cases. Biden campaign has purchased lots of ad time for the fall at lowest rates, hired and trained staff, empowered the DNC, is opening offices and generally organizing a powerful ground game for the fall. Politico has a pretty good article on fundraising results but most people will only see the headline that Trump Catches Up. Read the details! Hope you will unpack this further next week, Simon!
Good points. For those of us who aren't familiar with the world of political advertising, could you explain why/how Biden has gotten the lowest rates and Trump is paying 3-4x what Biden is?
The Biden Campaign is getting the candidate advertising rate, which is an average 20-25% of standard rates. Trump is using a SuperPAC to buy so they get standard advertising rates.
Love the newest package, for us Information Warriors:
"Three months before early voting begins I believe we are favored because we have a better candidate, better arguments and a far better campaign. Oh, and our guy ain’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and a felon. Or a weird shade of burnt orange. Or buds with Putin. Or the guy who ended Roe. Or the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen."
Hi I am a fan of your work. I know from experience that organizers have to be optimistic or we can’t do our jobs so the work you are doing is indispensable. I have been sharing your Hopium Chronicle essays with my 2800+ followers on Spoutible. Most recently I shared not only the Saturday Round Up but also the 2022 piece on the fallacy of the erosion of the Latinx vote. Your essays get tons of engagement and repostings. We all would love if you would add Spoutible to your social media outlets. There are nearly a quarter of a million users who are committed to democracy and decency on Spoutible and would spread the word. BTW, I even turned my pessimistic brother onto Hopium. Now he says “Pass the hookah, I’m hooked on Hopium!”
I'm proud to be part of this community. Last night I stopped at one of my favorite watering holes, and inadvertently triggered a political discussion . I brought up the fact that one of my favorite actors - Donald Sutherland - had passed away yesterday. A fellow patron remarked " ...The WRONG Donald died...", which led to a conversation with two people - one of which was a 30s/40s fellow patron and the other was with the bartender - I'd guess in her mid 20s. Unfortunately, it became clear the bartender was cynical and said she didn't see a difference between Biden and Trump (she was convinced he was ineffective, inflation was a problem and that we were "screwed either way", and seemed to say this was a perfect third party year). In my tired, hungry and thirsty state, I stumbled to sell his accomplishments to her. I realize this was just one person, just one gen z-er whom happened to be despondent and cynical. However, the story doesn't end there ( I promise I - I'm not just dumping my anxiety here). I continued to converse with my fellow bar patron. She was unimpressed with either party, overwhelmed, and scared. Ultimately I convinced her the Democrats were far preferable, and that there is a huge difference between a Biden and Trump victory. We kept talking and by the end of our conversation, she had signed up to receive Hopium emails. Keep calm and campaign on people.
Aww thank you! I just wish I hadn't been so flustered on explaining President Biden's great accomplishments to the bartender ( I just blanked on certain things because I was caught off guard I think) - as it did make me think about Gen Z as a whole. I wish I'd done a better job there. I think she also felt since we are in a blue state it doesn't matter ( which of course it absolutely does). One thing I've had to learn is not to try make tea leaves out of everything. Oh well, no point in dwelling in the past....
Great that you did that! I think too many of us - putting you in my category (I’m old) apologies if you are not! - are scared to have these conversations. We have to keep it up and you did that which is half the batter. I am going to do the same. One vote at a time!
I fantasize about Sean O’Brien using that stage and seizing the moment to list the workers Trump has shafted through the years, detailing his betrayal of America’s working class while he was president – and concluding with an unequivocal endorsement of President Joe Biden!
That would make for some amazing TV footage! It’d go viral like wildfire!
Donald might well chicken out and leave the debating to his surrogate: an empty chair.
Great discussion with Molly Jong Fast, Simon. Thank you for your tireless dedication to our democracy and helping us stay focused
How do we counter the fiction promulgated on Fox and elsewhere that if Dems win it's by cheating when no one ever found any actual cheating at all?
"Never argue with a drunk or a fool" comes to mind. When Biden wins, I am going to not engage with those fools. I am going to do what I did last time: Scream and run around with my hands up while my friend drove up and honked her horn repeatedly. 💙😂💙
Love it! My neighbors and I jumped up and down in my driveway last time in 2020!
It was great! I was so excited bc Biden had been finally been declared the winner. I was watching coverage. I got a text from my friend asking if I was home. I text back, Yes. She texts to come outside. I go outside and she was in her car and I started running around with my hands up - completely jubilant. She starts driving back and forth, honking and I just kept running around in circles. It was so silly but we both were so excited. My husband came outside and was smiling, completely excited but not running around like me. 😂😂😂😂. Unfortunately, most of my neighbors are republicans. They stayed inside. 😬
Say "Where's your evidence?". Maybe add "Oh, that's right, you have no evidence, only a bunch of lawyers losing their law licenses for lying about it."
Lynn Wood. Rudy Guiliani. John Eastman. Jeff Clark. Soon to be added: Christina Bobb.
Wait for it, wait for it...
.
.
.
"The evidence was on Hunter’s laptop and in Hillary’s emails!"
The voters who are available to us do not believe we stole the election and thus this is not a good use of our time and money in the campaign or here at Hopium.
I’d say our time and money is much better spent making sure the voters available to us get out and vote, in numbers huge enough that the votes of those who believe Dems cheated are mere drops in the ocean.
I fully agree with Simon! That said, here is something I have argued:
"Do you believe Trump is a poor man, that Trump is stupid, or that Trump is unable to find good lawyers? Well, I don’t!" (At this point I am met with confused silence...)
"In more than 60 lawsuits, Trump’s lawyers argued "the 2020 election is stolen". Not once were Trump and his lawyers able to present a single shred of evidence to support their claim.
"That is why Trump lost every single one of his 60 plus cases, many of them rejected by judges Trump himself had appointed. Why? Because it simply is not true.
"And Trump is a smart guy. So, no, I don’t believe Trump was duped into appointing judges who are part of some vast, Biden / Deep State conspiracy. And I really don’t think you do either."
We oughy to create ads that say there was no cheating and all cases were thrown out,
that the steal is a fiction and run them on Fox and Sinclair. Simple as that.
Thank you Simon, the trends are optimistic. Speaking of Wisconsin, the deadline to register and apply to vote by mail is July 24th for the August primaries. Blue wave postcards are laser focused on this campaign. If anyone is interested, I really like their cards because my handwriting is terrible and they are pre-printed with QR codes, so better for the recipients.
Here is the link to the campaign: https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=email-newsletter-june202024&link_id=10&can_id=8fd1462a48bdbf0189782e6548fd2d74&email_referrer=email_2363737&email_subject=_-blue-waves-candidate-endorsements-wisconsin-postcard-campaign-is-hot-_
Speaking of leaving it on the field the Ukraine v Slovakia game was inspiring! #Euro2024
Do you know how effective these postcards are? I suspect not as effective as handwritten ones.
Hi Tracey, you do write a personal message on the card too. My two cents is that it’s the best of both worlds, the main message to voters is clear and easy (QR code Easy), then I add a note, sign my name and add embellishments. The cards are engaging and if I got one I would definitely put it on my fridge. I can also do twice as many cards which is important right now.
Thanks! I will check this out.
Here's the Tour to Save Democracy video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eTsdi_gmnk
The tour is partnering with Field Team 6.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
FT6 has a weekly Florida phone banking program Thursdays from 2-4 EDT. Below is the link. Lynn Bommer, the instructor, advises they have 40,000 phone numbers and need volunteers. .
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/event/632594/
Just signed up! Thanks for flagging. Still believe we can win FLA (someday if not this year).
I watched lawrence O'donnell on wednesday night explaining about tariffs. I believe Biden should corner trump about his tax plan which would destroy our economy since many people believe trump would do a better job on the economy than biden. For those who didn't see lawrences show wednesday night. Trumps tariff war say on china wouldn't affect china but our pocketbooks shopping. He wants to replace income taxes with sales tax. Its a cover for the wealthy not to pay taxes and the middle class and poor to be hit with sales taxes on steroids which would make our lives unaffordable. Lawrence explained that Herbert Hoover was approached by a congressman and a senator to pass such a bill during the great depression. Henry Ford and others warned herbert hoover not to do it. It was a stupid idea. But Hoover signed the bill anyway making the great depression worse. Hoover lost to FDR and the congressman and senator who wrote the bill lost re-election because of that. The difference is Trumps tax plan would be more catastrophic to our country than what hoover did.
I think trump bought judge cannon telling her if you protect me with the classified case and if trump wins she will have a seat on the supreme court replacing clarence thomas or alito. alito's wife hates him being on the supreme court so it would be easier to replace alito. with thomas you have to give hima lavish lifestyle to leave.
Simon,.
You've been 100% correct on the timing and trends for the Biden/Trump race. Thank you so much for your work. The Trump-MAGA party is in for major trouncing they really can't imagine.
I am happily writing today about Biden’s recent polling results. Finally, a semblance of sanity seems to be settling upon some GOP voters. Biden has inched ahead of Trump in the 538 average poll results (which leans in favor of MAGA voters) and Biden’s leads in the NYTimes/Sienna Swing States poll by probably 3-4% when it’s adjusted for overweighting rural voters. The GOP seems to be savaging itself in front of American voters. We have been asking ourselves for months how any sane American could possibly support Trump, the criminal, autocrat wannabe More and more dedicated GOP voters are realizing the danger to America is not Biden’s faux “senility” but Trump’s self-serving inhumanity. This is all very bad news for Trump and his advisors. Over the next few months, we’re likely to see intense efforts, using distorted data, to prove America loves Trump’s America 2025 agenda. And we just can’t wait to get Steven Miller as our new AG. I’m eagerly awaiting the debate. At best for Trump, it will be a draw, if and only if, Trump can remain civil for 90 minutes. The likelihood he will descend into one form of boorish, non-presidential behavior or another is much more likely. Biden will be fine, like his performance in the State of the Union. America needs to get used to the idea that their next president is old AND extremely competent to continue governing in a dangerously demanding world.
Heartfelt thanks for all you do Simon. You lift us up and give us hope which fuels our work. I meet too many democrats who are discouraged and or checked out. When I remind them that making us feel helpless is a republican strategy - and the strategy of tyranny - they are floored. Then I introduce them to you, Robert Hubbell and Jessica Craven.
Way to go, Laura! Thanks for helping to lift Democratic spirits!
Trump brags about receiving $141 million in campaign donations in May, significantly outpacing Biden’s $85 million. The unwary might think the first figure reflects some sudden crowd approval… It does not!
Reality check: More than half of Trump’s haul was a single $75 million donation from bank heir Tim Mellon. Without Mellon, Trump took in a mere $66 million.
Worth noting: Mellon also donated $25 million to RFK Jr’s campaign, underscoring the fact that precisely the same deep-pocket billionaires are funding Trump and RFK Jr. Essentially, they’re two sides of the same coin – a strategy to put the Felon back into the White House.
.
Meanwhile: The share value of Truth Social has dropped by 50% since the start of June.
Good thing you mentioned that. Based what I have been hearing on CNN and MSNBC you would think that Trump is winning because of all the money he has been making, which isn’t true. Elections are won on lost by votes cast and not by money raised.
Reverse coattails possibilities in NC, aligned with the analysis here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/politicsnc/p/how-reverse-coattails-might-work?r=n2lo&utm_medium=ios
Come November, I think we’ll see "reverse coattails" lifting Biden in numerous states. Josh Stein is a wonderful candidate and, well, Mark Robinson is particularly venal and loathsome.
Likewise, wherever abortion rights are on the ballot, that will amplify Democratic turnout.
How about “mutual coattails”? Both lifting the other.
Yes, that argument is made in the article.
Mellon likes Felons!
I am left scratching my head as to why Mellon would make such a fools bet. Actually I know why but somewhere in his soul he has to know Trump isn’t going to win.
Ideologue with money to burn. He won’t miss it.
Melissa, in addition to being a hard-right ideologue, I suspect Tim Mellon considers this an investment. In the unlikely event that Trump is returned to the White House, Mellon would be likely to get many times $75 million back in the form of tax cuts.
Agreed and unfortunately a direct “Bat Phone” to the White House.
Which Mellon will no doubt use to voice and support "batshit crazy ideas".
Great new w-site highlighting how Biden Admin has lowered costs !📣
https://www.whitehouse.gov/lowering-costs/
This IS excellent.
This is fantastic. Let's share widely among our networks.
The thing I like most when Republicans lose is that it costs them so much more. Parse the latest fundraising totals closely - what you will see is Trump keeping his money in the bank even as the General Election is underway, not staffing up and opening offices, stripping the RNC bare so it isn’t prepared for down ballot GOTV, not buying choice airtime while it’s available and when PACs supporting him do, paying 3 to 4 times as much per ad as Biden’s federal campaign per FCC regulations. Not to mention that Trump is tapping these donations to pay huge legal bills for multiple past and ongoing cases. Biden campaign has purchased lots of ad time for the fall at lowest rates, hired and trained staff, empowered the DNC, is opening offices and generally organizing a powerful ground game for the fall. Politico has a pretty good article on fundraising results but most people will only see the headline that Trump Catches Up. Read the details! Hope you will unpack this further next week, Simon!
Good points. For those of us who aren't familiar with the world of political advertising, could you explain why/how Biden has gotten the lowest rates and Trump is paying 3-4x what Biden is?
The Biden Campaign is getting the candidate advertising rate, which is an average 20-25% of standard rates. Trump is using a SuperPAC to buy so they get standard advertising rates.
Thanks for the assist. Simon has emphasized this point in earlier presentations.
Love the newest package, for us Information Warriors:
"Three months before early voting begins I believe we are favored because we have a better candidate, better arguments and a far better campaign. Oh, and our guy ain’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and a felon. Or a weird shade of burnt orange. Or buds with Putin. Or the guy who ended Roe. Or the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen."
Hi I am a fan of your work. I know from experience that organizers have to be optimistic or we can’t do our jobs so the work you are doing is indispensable. I have been sharing your Hopium Chronicle essays with my 2800+ followers on Spoutible. Most recently I shared not only the Saturday Round Up but also the 2022 piece on the fallacy of the erosion of the Latinx vote. Your essays get tons of engagement and repostings. We all would love if you would add Spoutible to your social media outlets. There are nearly a quarter of a million users who are committed to democracy and decency on Spoutible and would spread the word. BTW, I even turned my pessimistic brother onto Hopium. Now he says “Pass the hookah, I’m hooked on Hopium!”
I'm proud to be part of this community. Last night I stopped at one of my favorite watering holes, and inadvertently triggered a political discussion . I brought up the fact that one of my favorite actors - Donald Sutherland - had passed away yesterday. A fellow patron remarked " ...The WRONG Donald died...", which led to a conversation with two people - one of which was a 30s/40s fellow patron and the other was with the bartender - I'd guess in her mid 20s. Unfortunately, it became clear the bartender was cynical and said she didn't see a difference between Biden and Trump (she was convinced he was ineffective, inflation was a problem and that we were "screwed either way", and seemed to say this was a perfect third party year). In my tired, hungry and thirsty state, I stumbled to sell his accomplishments to her. I realize this was just one person, just one gen z-er whom happened to be despondent and cynical. However, the story doesn't end there ( I promise I - I'm not just dumping my anxiety here). I continued to converse with my fellow bar patron. She was unimpressed with either party, overwhelmed, and scared. Ultimately I convinced her the Democrats were far preferable, and that there is a huge difference between a Biden and Trump victory. We kept talking and by the end of our conversation, she had signed up to receive Hopium emails. Keep calm and campaign on people.
Awesome! Amazing power of persuasion.
If you’re ever in my neck of the woods, I’ll buy you a pint as a Thank You for your service!
Aww thank you! I just wish I hadn't been so flustered on explaining President Biden's great accomplishments to the bartender ( I just blanked on certain things because I was caught off guard I think) - as it did make me think about Gen Z as a whole. I wish I'd done a better job there. I think she also felt since we are in a blue state it doesn't matter ( which of course it absolutely does). One thing I've had to learn is not to try make tea leaves out of everything. Oh well, no point in dwelling in the past....
Good excuse to go back to that watering hole lol! You’ll be better prepared next time. But hey - you got one! Good job!
You did good! and practice is good. Simon gives us plenty of material to work with -
Great that you did that! I think too many of us - putting you in my category (I’m old) apologies if you are not! - are scared to have these conversations. We have to keep it up and you did that which is half the batter. I am going to do the same. One vote at a time!
Curious to know what you think about Teamsters president Sean O'Brien planning to speak at the Republican National Convention.
I fantasize about Sean O’Brien using that stage and seizing the moment to list the workers Trump has shafted through the years, detailing his betrayal of America’s working class while he was president – and concluding with an unequivocal endorsement of President Joe Biden!
That would make for some amazing TV footage! It’d go viral like wildfire!