A Decent Jobs Report In A Swirl Of Bad Economic News, Escalating Chaos In DC, New Hopium Vote Yes VA Phonebanks
Join me live and in person this Thursday night at 7pm in Bethesda, Maryland - Join us, bring friends and colleagues! Will be great to see folks in person......
Morning all. Somehow the March jobs was a pretty good one. 178,000 jobs created, small downward revisions in January and February. NBC News has a good explanation this morning for why this report may not reflect current economic conditions:
Surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were completed by March 12. At the time, the full brunt of the war — for which President Donald Trump has laid out an uncertain timeline — had yet to hit the job market.
Three weeks later, gasoline prices have surged to more than $4 a gallon, a level that, if it is sustained, would sap U.S. consumers of hundreds of dollars in annual discretionary income.
On Wednesday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve lowered its real-time gross domestic product estimate to 1.9%, down from more than 3% just before the start of the war.
Still, Friday’s report will have captured some of the rising uncertainty that has helped sink stock markets and spike oil prices over the past few weeks.
“Even before the energy shock, consumers were facing headwinds from a soft labor market, weak real income growth, and an already depressed personal saving rate, with the Michigan consumer survey’s major purchases index pointing to a continued slowdown in spending on goods,” economists with Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note to clients this week. “The surge in gas prices and hit to confidence since the war began will compound those headwinds.”
Broadly, the jobs market remains at a standstill — what many experts are calling a “no-hire, no fire” environment, in which both layoffs and new placements are subdued.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the hiring rate in February fell to just 3.1% of the U.S. workforce, a level last recorded in April 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic bore down. And it’s only slightly above the 2.8% hiring rate recorded during the depths of the 2008-09 Great Recession.
It is notable that the markets have not risen today given the good news. It’s a sign they understand that this data is not reflective of current reality, and the extraordinary mess Trump has made of things.
Here’s Trump’s jobs record from February 2025 on:
And here’s the job creation rate before and after his Liberation Day tariffs:
As I explained in yesterday’s post next Friday we are going to get the March Consumer Price Index report (the main gauge of inflation). It is expected to show an enormous increase, and is likely to change our collective understanding of the true domestic costs of the war.
My weekly talk provides a comprehensive overview of the current moment, and this post does a deep dive into the all terrible polling Republicans are seeing now.
Two bits of data stood out to me this week. First, Gallup released its quarterly Party ID report. There has been a 14 point swing towards the Democrats since the 4th quarter of 2024:
Second, Democrats now lead in polls for the US Senate in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. If those results hold the Senate would join the House in flipping this November (click here for more on the recent encouraging Senate polling data).
Escalating Chaos In DC - What a week - a bizarre, incoherent Presidential Address To The Nation; the firings of Bondi and three military leaders, including the highest ranking Army officer in the midst of war; unending insane Trump social media posts; and a bloodthirsty new fiscal year 2027 budget from the White House:
President Donald Trump will ask Congress to enact a massive increase in defense spending in a discretionary budget proposal Friday, while also renewing his push for steep cuts to domestic programs.
The budget requests $1.5 trillion in budgetary resources for defense, a significant increase over the $1 trillion sought for fiscal year 2026. The new figure includes $1.1 trillion in base discretionary budget authority for the Department of Defense and $350 billion in additional resources as the US carries out its war on Iran.
Discretionary nondefense spending would be cut 10%, by about $73 billion, according to fact sheets circulated by the White House in advance of the annual budget release Friday.
Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans are in full meltdown now over passing the fiscal year 2026 DHS appropriations. From Punchbowl News:
House Republicans are in open revolt. GOP lawmakers held a nearly three-hour call Thursday, during which Speaker Mike Johnson pitched them on passing the Senate’s Department of Homeland Security minus ICE and CBP funding bill. That’s the same bill that Johnson called a “joke” a week ago.
Johnson is now telling House Republicans they must accept this bill because the Senate doesn’t have the votes for anything else. That’s proven to be a tough sell. Another problem for House Republicans — the SAVE America Act, which they’ve passed multiple times, is going to end up in reconciliation, leaving it at the mercy of Senate parliamentary rules.
House Republicans now may hold off voting on the DHS funding until the reconciliation process begins. We’ll see what the White House thinks about that. This DHS bill doesn’t have the votes right now — or anywhere close.
Recall that this effort to pass the DHS appropriations bill without ICE/CBP and SAVE is in direct defiance of what Trump has demanded. Thune and Johnson may not be able to pull it off, but it should be ominous to the White House that on the day they have begun the debate over the fiscal year 2027 budget both Republican Congressional leaders are charting their own course on some of Trump’s most important legislative priorities.
The Republican thing here in DC is crumbling further under the weight of their unpopularity, of their many manifest failures, of their narrow majorities, of the debilitating madness of their leader; and of our electoral successes, of the growing power of our opposition movement, of the increasing courage and effectiveness of our political leaders.
And as I wrote yesterday, as bad as things are now for Republicans, they are going to get worse in the coming months - far, far worse.
Many New Discussions For Your Weekend Viewing Pleasure - We’ve had some great discussions in recent weeks. Do get to them when you can:
Democracy Defenders - Marc Elias, Ezra Levin, Hardy Merriman
Terrific Candidates - Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Mary Peltola (Alaska), David Pepper (Ohio)
Inspiring State Party Chairs - Anderson Clayton (North Carolina), Nikki Fried (Florida), Kendall Scudder (Texas)
You can find all of these discussions on the Hopium site under the Podcast tab, and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too.
New Hopium Phonebank Nights For Vote Yes In Virginia, April 9 and 16 - We are joining forces with our friends at Network NOVA to do two nights of phonebanking to drive our vote in the Vote Yes campaign in Virginia:
Thursday, April 9, 530-8pm - Register here.
Thursday, April 16, 530-8pm - Register here.
I will be kicking off both events and hanging around for a while to greet folks and thank everyone. Training will be provided for those who need it.
A new Washington Post poll fresh this morning shows why we need to work it in Virginia - a majority is with us, but we need to get our folks out to vote:
This statewide ballot initiative takes place on Tue, April 21st - so need the Hopium community to rally now, as you always do! Sign up for a shift today, bring friends, promote this through your networks. Let’s close strong in Virginia and bring this baby home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This Thursday, April 9th, 7pm - Live Hopium Event in Bethesda, Maryland - Friends, I am excited to be joining my good friends at the Women’s Democratic Club of Montgomery Country this coming Thursday at 7pm. You can register here. Bring friends and colleagues, spread this through your networks. Going to be a lot of fun, and I am excited to be able to see members of this remarkable community in person!
Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $542,000 raised, $500,000 - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) | Learn about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.
Huge shout-out to the team at FridayAction. Our event last Wednesday with them has now raised $96,000 for our House candidates - amazing, amazing stuff! That total is included in our new amazing total, as is the money given to each individual House candidate in recent weeks.
James Talarico For Texas - $53,900 raised, $100,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $74,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Winning Ohio - $114,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $99,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $162,800 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $505,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.
Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions
Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia
Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs
Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding
Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People
Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation
End the War on Science, Health and Public Health
Make Clear To American Farmers That We Want To End The War, Repeal The Tariffs, Find Legal Pathways For Farm Workers, And Make Health Care And Energy More Affordable
This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.
And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Thank you everyone! Let’s keep working hard. We have a country to save and an election to win this November!!!!!!!!!!!!- Simon
Meanwhile, the long-unhinged Trump Regime seems to be disintegrating. There are many encouraging signs – and perhaps we need a bit of levity in these bleak times. Andy Borowitz, my favorite satirist, appears to have inside information:
. "Iran Says It Has Started to Achieve Regime Change in US"
TEHRAN (The Borowitz Report) — The leaders of Iran’s Islamic Republic crowed on Thursday that they have begun to achieve their goal of regime change in the U.S.
“First Kristi Noem, and now Pam Bondi,” the official Iranian statement read. “The dominoes are falling one by one.”
Iran said that, although the US claims Donald J. Trump is still in power, “His speech last night did not prove that he is still alive.”
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/iran-says-it-has-started-to-achieve
Thank you so much for doing the phonebanks for VA! Democracy Docket had an article on how Peter Thiel is throwing in 2.5 mill for the NO campaign and this murky group was behind using President Obama's likeness to target black voters to vote No. They are desperate and deplorable!
For those who like writing postcards - Postcard to Voters started their campaign!
https://postcardstovoters.org/ (We just finished the Shawn Harris and Wisconsin Supreme Court campaigns). And Activate America has their campaign: https://www.activateamerica.vote/postcards
Turnout PAC had a great campaign too but I think it's too late to order cards, they have to be done and mailed by 4/10. My postcard group did about 500 for VA with the 3 campaigns. We started a program of delivering packs of 50 cards to people who are homebound and can't come to our in person meetings.
I've been calling and thank my 2 Dem senators and Dem house rep to say THANK YOU for holding strong. I have been also asking they do Town Halls in GOP districts - I feel the ones in 2025 where Dems went into GOP districts worked very well. People are hurting and they need to see a real elected come and hear them.