Big Wins in SCOTUS This Morning, America At 250, Supporting Our Candidates, The Weakening Of Greater MAGA

Heather Cox Richardson joins us live today at 2pm ET, Marc Elias joins us Wednesday

Morning all. First, some breaking news…..This morning the Supreme Court let $5 million sex abuse verdict against Trump stand, and ruled in our favor in a critical voting rights case….

Here at Hopium we have two major initiatives this week. The first will be to talk about America and the state of our democracy at 250. To kick off this conversation series historian Heather Cox Richardson joins us live today at 2pm ET (click here to join us). I will be releasing a recorded interview with Marc Elias on Wednesday, and our friend Stuart Stevens joins us live next Monday.

The second initiative is to get as much money to our intrepid candidates before the 2nd quarter filing deadline tomorrow night as we can. This filing deadline really matters. Commentators will use these campaign finance reports to derive the relative strength of the two parties in a few weeks. Party committees will make decisions on who to invest in, and who perhaps to pull back from. I am making a big ask this morning - can we close strong this quarter and raise $50,000 in the next two days for our candidates and party committees?

This community, overflowing with proud, plucky patriots, has raised more than $10m through 95,000 unique contributions for battleground candidates and state parties in the last two and a half years. I’m proud of this remarkable achievement, and grateful to all of you who’ve been part of this vital work. Our courageous candidates are out there working 24/7 for our all of us. We need to be there for them at this critical time. Do what you can and help us close strong everyone!

While this week’s celebration of our 250th birthday may be bittersweet, I take solace in seeing the struggle of the political projects of three of Greater MAGAs most important leaders - Trump, Putin, and Bibi. Yesterday Putin gave a speech where he acknowledged how much damage Ukraine had done to the energy infrastructure of Russia, something that is being read as a remarkable admission of the failure of his war…..

Here in the US you can see evidence of the incredible struggle of Trump’s political project in new polling by Republicans in battleground states. The first comes from Ohio with Trump’s own pollster, FabrizioWard, as the polling lead. Brown and Acton each lead by 3 in a state Trump won by 11 points. Brown is up 48%-45% and Acton leads 47%-44%. This is very encouraging stuff…..

In Iowa a GOP firm Cygnal released a poll showing their Senate candidate Ashley Hinson only up by 1.8 points, 46%-44.2% in a state Trump won by 13. So their own polling right now, in polls they are releasing to the public, is showing 10+ shifts in our favor, and the Senate clearly in play.

I’ve updated our Senate polling round up, below. Look how far ahead we are running ahead of our 2024 results throughout the battleground - it’s remarkable to see. For remember as you look at this data remember that the late breaking votes in elections like this one usually break against the party in power. So no Republican wants to be under 50 right now in any of these battlegrounds, and certainly no Republican wants to be at 44 like Ramaswamy, 45 like Husted, or 46 like Hinson.

The notable exception to our strong overperformances in the Senate battlegrounds is Maine, where we the NYT released a new poll this morning showing Graham Platner up 2 over Susan Collins, 49%-47%, in a state Harris won by 7. This poll is consistent with other public polls released since the primary. Given our spirited discussion about Platner here over the past few weeks I’ll now share three bits of data from the poll on topics we’ve been vigorously debating:

And this - Platner is hovering around the same margins with working class voters as our 2020 Senate candidate, Sara Gideon. His strength is coming from college educated voters, not the working class:

Let me be very clear about what all this data means - Trump and the Rs are in serious trouble in this election; they know it, and aren’t trying to bullshit their way through it; the House should flip and the Senate is clearly in play. But getting to the other side of where we are today is going to be very hard, and we need to stay focused and keep working our ass off to take advantage of the opportunity that is now in front of us. Yes, my friends……..

Let’s Rally For Our Courageous Candidates Today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

(Please be patient as we overhaul and update this section. Note that we have now changed our ActBlue default settings so that your contact information is only shared with a campaign if you give your affirmative permission. Many of you have asked for this and it is now our standard operating procedure. )

Winning The House

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $823,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $123,500 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!

Winning The Senate

Our New Winning The Senate Fund - $356,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), Graham Platner (ME), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $349,000 figure is what we’ve raised for these six so far, as you see will below.

You can also continue to contributions to their individual campaigns here:

Roy Cooper For NC Senate - $125,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $108,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $5,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer

James Talarico For Texas - $94,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $22,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek

Jon Ossoff For GA Senate - $192,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States

Winning Iowa - $9,100 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with our great gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand

Winning Ohio - $165,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $604,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds.

Some Things To Call Congress About This Week

• Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans

• Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk

• No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……

• Hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton

• Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.

See the Hopium Agenda Project for what we can and should be fighting for now….

Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better

A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 192 new people, strong progress towards our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success. Follow the link for group and gift subscriptions too!

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon